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2 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at HEDGEYE 2

3 3MO HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

4 3MO HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION 80% 70% 60% 50% 65% The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%. 76% 40% 30% 21% 20% 10% 0% 0% 9% 0% CASH U.S. EQUITIES INT'L EQUITIES COMMODITIES FOREIGN EXCHANGE FIXED INCOME April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

5 1 2 3 USD OIL UST 10YR

6 USD After falling another -0.4% last week to year-to-date lows of -4.5%, the U.S. Dollar Index is signaling immediate-term oversold in my model for the first time in April (the 30-day correlation between USD and S&P 500 is -0.90).

7 OIL WTI was up +8% last week after falling -7% in the week prior. This will be as important to watch as anything U.S. Equity Market Beta this week; risk range is signaling a lower-high of $39.99/barrel as Oil Volatility (OVX) signals a higher-low of

8 UST 10YR A whole lot of nothing happening from a sovereign bond market volatility perspective (Long Bond Bulls should enjoy that as it signals growth has not bottomed ). The UST 10YR Yield was -5 basis points last week and down -55 basis points year-to-date at 1.72%.

9 U.S. MACRO & HOUSING CHRISTIAN DRAKE

10 SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMICS

11 INVENTORY: THE WHY OF SUPPLY Low Rates Negative/Low Equity Tighter Credit Home Price Spreads Demographics Investors HEDGEYE 11

12 INVENTORY: ON THE LOWS DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 12

13 SUPPLY: LONG-TERM LOWS DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, NAR HEDGEYE 13

14 SUPPLY: RATE RETICENCE DATA SOURCE: MBA, CENSUS BUREAU, CORELOGIC, REALTYTRAC, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 14

15 SUPPLY: EQUITY OVERHANG DATA SOURCE: CORELOGIC HEDGEYE 15

16 MCAI : TRADE OR TREND? Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected. DATA SOURCE: MBA, HEDGEYE 16

17 SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Meanwhile, mortgage credit availability, which had been on a long-term upswing, recently negatively inflected. DATA SOURCE: MBA, HEDGEYE 17

18 SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS This is simply a longer-term snapshot of credit availability for some added perspective. DATA SOURCE: MBA HEDGEYE 18

19 SUPPLY: CREDIT CONSTRAINTS Standards remain well below long-term equilibrium. DATA SOURCE: URBAN INSTITUTE HEDGEYE 19

20 SUPPLY: PREMIUM SPREADS DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, HEDGEYE HEDGEYE 20

21 BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE BOOMERS FAMILIES ARE GETTING SMALLER BUT THE SHARE LIVING IN SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED HOMES IS UNCHANGED HEDGEYE 21

22 BOOMERS AGING IN PLACE SOURCE: AARP (2012) HEDGEYE 22

23 GEN X IN TROUBLE Gen X HEDGEYE 23

24 GEN X IN TROUBLE DATA SOURCE: CENSUS BUREAU HEDGEYE 24

25 RENTAL INVENTORY STILL NEGATIVE DATA SOURCE: FREDDIE MAC HEDGEYE 25

26 GDP: RESIDUAL SEASONALITY OLD FORMAT = $800/SQUARE FT NEW FORMAT = $1,300 SQ FT 1Q RESIDUAL SEASONALITY NEGATIVE IN 3 OF LAST 5 YEARS DATA SOURCE: BLOOMBERG HEDGEYE 26

27 HEDGEYE MACRO 3MO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

28 3MO HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

29 HEDGEYE SECTOR 3MO RELATIVE PERFORMANCE April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

30 HEDGEYE 3MO STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

31 3MO HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

32 CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL 3MO NET LONG POSITIONING April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

33 MARKET SHARE 3MO VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

34 BACK TO GROWTH 3MO SLOWING ALLOCATION April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

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71 UST 10YR 3MO U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

72 SPX 3MO S&P 500 INDEX 2,100 2,000,000,000 PRICE 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,800,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 0 VOLUME April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

73 SPX 3MO S&P 500 INDEX 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

74 RTY 3MO RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 1,220 1,180 1,140 1,100 1,060 1, April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

75 RTY 3MO RUSSELL 2000 INDEX 1, ,000,000 PRICE 1,180 1,140 1,100 1,060 1, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 0 VOLUME April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

76 VIX 3MO VOLATILITY INDEX April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

77 CLA 3MO WTI CRUDE OIL April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

78 CLA 3MO WTI CRUDE OIL , , , ,000 PRICE , ,000 VOLUME ,000 50, April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

79 DXY 3MO U.S. DOLLAR INDEX SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

80 CRY 3MO TR/CC CRB COMMODITY INDEX April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

81 GOLD 3MO GOLD SPOT PRICE 1,330 1,280 1,230 1,180 1,130 1,080 1, , , , ,000 50,000 0 VOLUME April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

82 GOLD 3MO GOLD SPOT 1,330 1,280 1,230 1,180 1,130 1,080 1, April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

83 HGA 3MO COPPER April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

84 NGA 3MO NATURAL GAS SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

85 EURO 3MO EURO SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

86 YEN 3MO JAPANESE YEN SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

87 NKY 3MO NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE 22,000 20,500 19,000 17,500 16,000 14,500 13,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

88 NKY 3MO NIKKEI-225 STOCK AVERAGE 22,000 20,500 19,000 4,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 PRICE 17,500 16,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 VOLUME 14, ,000,000 13,000 0 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

89 SHCOMP 3MO SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX 4,500 4,000 40,000,000,000 35,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 PRICE 3,500 20,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 VOLUME 3,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 2,500 0 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

90 SHCOMP 3MO SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

91 IBEX 35 3MO SPANISH CONTINUOUS MARKET 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

92 DAX 3MO GERMAN STOCK INDEX 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

93 DAX 3MO GERMAN STOCK INDEX 12,000 11,500 11, ,000, ,000,000 PRICE 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW 150,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 0 VOLUME

94 UST 2YR 3MO U.S. GENERIC GOVT 2-YEAR YIELD April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

95 HSI 3MO HONG KONG HANG SENG INDEX 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

96 SENSEX 3MO BSE INDIAN SENSEX INDEX 27,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

97 KOSPI 3MO SOUTH KOREA KOSPI INDEX 2,125 2,025 1,925 1,825 1,725 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

98 UKX 3MO UK FTSE 100 INDEX 6,700 6,500 6,300 6,100 5,900 5,700 5,500 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

99 ASE 3MO ATHENS STOCK EXCHANGE GENERAL April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

100 RTS MO RUSSIAN RTS INDEX 600 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

101 DAX 3MO GERMAN STOCK INDEX 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

102 CAC 3MO FRANCE CAC 40 INDEX 5,100 4,900 4,700 4,500 4,300 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

103 FTSE MIB 3MO BORSA ITALIANA INDEX 23,500 22,000 20,500 19,000 17,500 16,000 14,500 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

104 POUND 3MO BRITISH POUND SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

105 PSI 20 3MO PORTUGAL PSI 20 INDEX 5,750 5,500 5,250 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

106 AS51 3MO AUSTRALIA S S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

107 RUB 3MO RUSSIAN RUBLE SPOT April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

108 XOP 3MO OIL & GAS ETF April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW

109 COA 55 3YR BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURE April 11, 2016 THE MACRO 4/11/2014 SHOW