and Beverage Trade Flows of Sri Lanka
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1 A Gravity Analysis of Food and Beverage Trade Flows of Sri Lanka Bimali Wijeratne and Jeevika Weerahewa University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Karl Meilke and Zahoor Haq University of Guelph, Canada Paper presented at the IATRC summer meetings, Seoul, Korea, June 30 - July 01, /01/2008 1
2 Contents Regional integration in South Asia Sri Lanka: Import sources and export destinations s Objectives Gravity model Data and specification Results and discussion 7/01/2008 2
3 Regionalism in South Asia South Asia is the least integrated region in the world South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in 1985 South Asian Preferential Trading Agreement (SAPTA) in 1995 South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) in /01/2008 3
4 Regionalism in South Asia (Ctd.) Not been considered as a success story. Few complementarities in production and consumption Political friction among some member countries Limited tariff reductions among SAPTA member countries Trade diverting union 7/01/2008 4
5 Regionalism in South Asia (Ctd.) Sizable improvement in intra-country trade within SAARC in the recent past Regionalism as one of the avenues to achieve food security Si Sri Lanka: Special il case India has become the largest import source and third largest export destination 7/01/2008 5
6 Imports into Sri Lanka 7/01/2008 6
7 Exports from Sri Lanka 7/01/2008 7
8 Trade by Products 7/01/2008 8
9 Trading Partners: Agri-Food Trade Key import sources India (HS07) Singapore gp (HS15) New Zealand (HS04) Key export destinations India (HS15) Russian Federation (HS09) United Arab Emirates (HS09) 7/01/2008 9
10 Objectives Broad objective: To examine the pattern of food and agricultural trade in Sri Lanka over the recent past so as to determine whether regionalism as a worthwhile strategy Specific objective: An assessment of the determinants of value of trade in Sri Lanka using a gravity model. 7/01/
11 Past studies using gravity models Rajapakse jp and Arunatilake (1997): Sri Lankan perspective Hassan (2001): Viability of SAARC Clarete et al. (2003): Asian regionalism Jugurnath et al. (2007): Asia Pacific RTAs Bhattacharya and Bhattacharyay (2007): BIMSTEC Sarker and Jayasinghe (2007): Agri-food trade 7/01/
12 Gravity model Total trade, Value of Imports and Value of Exports as the dependent variables Conventional/natural variables Size of the country (GDP) Development of the country (PC GDP) Physical distance Extensions Country dummy variables Product type dummy variables 7/01/
13 Data and specification Bilateral trade flows from UNComTrade ( ) Food and beverages (primary/processed, industrial/household) dairy, edible vegetables, edible fruits, coffee, tea, spices, cereals, oil seeds, fats and oils, sugars and other beverages. 7/01/
14 Trade partners of Sri Lanka Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan Top 10 importers and exporters of Sri Lanka Functional forms: Long-log, Linear Handling of zero observations With zeros in linear form using OLSQ Tobit model 391 observations 7/01/
15 Dept variable: Value of trade Variable Linear: OLSQ Tobit Rsq = 0.32 LL = GDP 6.59e-17* 6.58e-17* Per capita GDP Distance ** ** India 3.69e+07*** 3.79e+07*** Pakistan Bangladesh -1.50e+07*** -1.51e+07*** Maldives -1.20e+07** -1.12e+07** Nepal -1.56e+07** -1.47e+07** Primary_industrial * * Primary_household 1.82e+07*** 1.84e+07*** Processed_industrial Constant 1.73e+07*** 1.67e+07*** 7/01/
16 Dependent variable: Value of Imports Variable Linear: OLSQ Tobit Rsq = LL = GDP 1.99e e-17 Per capita GDP 1.59e e-17 Distance * India 3.16e+07*** 3.22e+07*** Pakistan Bangladesh ** -1.20e+07*** Maldives * Nepal Primary_industrial ** ** Primary_household Processed_industrial Constant *** ** 7/01/
17 Dependent variable: Value of Exports Variable Linear: OLSQ Tobit Rsq = 0.23 LL = GDP 5.51e-17* 6.77e-17** Per capita GDP Distance ** India Pakistan Bangladesh -1.06e+07** ** Maldives ** * Nepal -1.27e+07** -1.05e+07* Primary_industrial Primary_household 2.02e+07*** 2.09e+07*** Processed_industrial Constant 1.00e+07** ** 7/01/
18 Trade Patterns Traditional variables Positive and significant ifi effect of GDP Negative and significant effect of distance Commodity effects Primary household commodities: Positive Primary industrial commodities: Negative Country effects Positive and significant coefficient for India Negative and significant coefficients for Bangladesh, Maldives and Nepal 7/01/
19 Conclusions and Implications After controlling for GDP, distance, type of product, compared to non-saarc partners: Special preference to import from India Bangladesh is considered as an inferior partner Maldives and Nepal are considered as inferior export destinations Preferences towards Pakistan is neutral 7/01/
20 Comments.. 7/01/
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