Implications of Possible Restrictions on Methyl Bromide Use for Quarantine and Preshipment (QPS) Uses : East Asia Case Study Analysis

Transcription

1 Implications of Possible Restrictions on Methyl Bromide Use for Quarantine and Preshipment (QPS) Uses : East Asia Case Study Analysis Fifteenth Annual Financial Agent Workshop 1 April 2011 Washington, DC

2 Analytic Work on Methyl Bromide (MB) Use for Quarantine and Pre-shipment (QPS) Analytic work on the potential technical, political and economic impacts that future restrictions on MB for QPS uses may generate, in advance of such restrictions being considered or adopted by the Parties to the Montreal Protocol Support existing national ODS legislative and regulatory frameworks addressing MB in Thailand and Vietnam to : Prepare the clients to critically assess the viability of technical alternatives to MB available for QPS treatments, Build confidence that no significant market disruption would result from transition away from MB for QPS uses, and Position them to effectively represent their views and interests in MB-QPS policy deliberations underway within the Montreal Protocol

3 Policy Considerations: The QPS Exemption, Consumption and Production Trends and Recent QPS Decisions

4 QPS Exemption and Reporting MB established as a controlled ODS at the 1992 Meeting of the Parties (Copenhagen) Article 2H of the Protocol specifically excluded QPS from control measures QPS represented about 10% of global MB consumption at the time The 1999 Beijing Amendment required Parties to report QPS data under Article 7 QPS production and consumption data remained confidential until 2008 Decision XX/6 made QPS data public

5 Developing an Overview of Global QPS Uses Decision XVI/10 (2002) XX/6 (2008) Information Overview Sought Reporting of information related to QPS uses of MB Actions by Parties to reduce MB use for QPS purposes and related emissions Action Requests Parties to submit information on QPS uses of MB and TEAP to report on such data, by commodity and application, in order to provide a global use pattern overview Requests TEAP to assess trends in: major uses, available alternatives, other mitigation options and, barriers to the adoption of alternatives. + estimate a possible replaceable proportion of MB used for QPS

6 Global QPS consumption trends ,000 14,000 A5 + Non-A5 Non-A5 Parties A5 Parties 12,000 Methyl bromide (tonnes) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Slide courtesy of MBTOC; Data drawn from Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

7 Global QPS consumption 2009 per region Slide courtesy of MBTOC; Data drawn from Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

8 QPS consumption in A5 Party regions 8,000 Asia Western Europe & others Latin America & the Caribbean Africa Eastern Europe 7,000 6,000 Methyl bromide (tonnes) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Asian region consumption on the increase Slide courtesy of MBTOC; Data drawn from Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

9 QPS consumption in Non-A5 Parties 6,000 Methyl bromide (tonnes) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Israel USA Japan Australia New Zealand 1,000 - Slide courtesy of MBTOC; Data drawn from Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

10 QPS consumption in A5 Parties 2,000 1,800 Methyl bromide (tonnes) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, China Viet Nam Republic of Korea India Thailand Mexico Egypt Indonesia Singapore Nine A5 Parties accounted for 89% of the total A5 QPS consumption in Slide courtesy of MBTOC; Data drawn from Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

11 MBTOC Analysis of QPS Uses (1) Year TEAP/MBTOC Report contained information for the Parties on QPS Task Force Report in response to Decision XX/6 (2008) - Quantities of MB used per category - Alternatives; Recovery and recycling - Regulations that affect MB- QPS - Barriers to alternatives - Opportunities for reduction - Unusual uses of MB-QPS - Where more information is needed Action taken by Parties Decision XXI/10 (2009)

12 The Response of the Parties Decision Information Overview Sought XXI/10 (2009) QPS uses of MB Action Requests TEAP to : Assess technical and economic feasibility of alternatives; Assess current availability and market penetration rate; Assess regulatory requirements for the implementation of alternatives; Update estimated replaceable quantities of MB used for QPS purposes; Propose a draft methodology for assessing the technical and economical feasibility of alternatives

13 MBTOC Analysis of QPS Uses (2) Year TEAP/MBTOC Report contained information for the Parties on... Action taken by Parties 2010 MBTOC-QPS Report in response to Decision XXI/10 (2009) - Technical and economical feasibility, availability and market penetration of alternatives in four major categories - R&D on alternatives - Estimate of MB replaceable globally for the 4 categories (by A5/non-A5; by Q/PS) - Methods that could be used to assess the impact of a restriction on MB-QPS Decision in 2010 deferred to 31st OEWG

14 Key issues arising from MBTOC analysis In 2009 QPS consumption was 46% higher than non-qps consumption the first time that exempted uses exceed controlled uses. QPS has become the largest unregulated emissive use of all ODS Increased use of MB for QPS is offsetting gains made by reductions in controlled uses for soils, structures and commodities Some Parties have stopped all uses of MB including QPS (e.g. the EU) and others have announced their intention to do so in the near future (e.g. Brazil)

15 Technical and Economic Considerations: Availability, Effectiveness and Level of Market Penetration of Alternatives for Main QPS Uses

16 Main categories of use - global In the order of 75% of all uses of MB for QPS fall into five categories: Logs (sawn timber) Grain and other foodstuffs Wood and WPM (ISPM15) Fresh fruit and vegetables Soils (pre-plant use) Alternatives for these uses were studied and an estimate of the proportion considered replaceable made (TEAP 2009, 2010)

17 Main categories of use in A5 Parties, % 2% 5% 2% 3% 9% 14% 5% 22% Cut flowers Fresh fruit & veg Grain & foodstuffs Nursery plants and seeds WPM Logs Wood Pers effects & misc Structures & equip Alternatives for these uses were studied and an estimate of the proportion considered replaceable has been made (TEAP 2009, 2010) Source: MBTOC, 2010

18 Evaluating the Potential Impact of a Restriction: Requirements for Alternatives for MB-QPS Parameter Considerations Technical feasibility of alternative Economic feasibility Other factors Controls pests to an appropriate level of protection Supported by data and research Logistically feasible Does not reduce the marketability of a treated product Does not have adverse effects on environment, off-target organisms, animal or human health (or these can be adequately addressed) Net returns sing the alternative are determined to be acceptable relative to MB Can be adopted without causing any market disruption Regulatory barriers to adoption of alternatives Authorization by relevant protection agency (sometimes required negotiating bilateral agreement) Registered, when necessary, and operating to the required level of protection Experience from countries that have phased out Methods to reduce emissions of MB Options more readily available to reduce MB use (best practices, dosage rates, frequency of fumigation)

19 Methyl bromide for QPS estimated to be replaceable globally with currently available technologies... Party 2007 data WPM (ISPM-15) Grains and similar foodstuffs Soils Logs Quarantine Q PS Quarantine Quarantine A5 Use (tonnes) ,371 A5 MB replaceable > 60% <10% 30-70% 0% 10-20% Non-A5 Use (tonnes) , Non-A5 MB replaceable 60-80% <10% >80% *About 50% 10-20%

20 Methyl bromide for QPS estimated to be replaceable globally with currently available technologies (2) Total consumption estimated of four* categories = 6,225 tonnes Minimum Maximum 2007 (tonnes) Q PS Q PS A5 + Non A5 (tonnes) 1, , QPS Min-Max (tonnes) 1,937 2,943 Percent of total consumption of four* categories 1,937 / 6,225 = 31% 2,943 / 6,225 = 47% *1. Sawn timber and wood packaging material (ISPM-15); 2. Grains & similar foodstuffs; 3. Soils; 4. Logs

21 Methyl bromide for QPS estimated to be replaceable globally with currently available technologies (3) MB-QPS (tonnes) 10,000 5,000 Officially-reported methyl bromide global consumption for QPS in 2007 Estimated methyl bromide global consumption for QPS in the four highest MB-consuming categories (TEAP May 2010) 10,754 tonnes 6, % 100% Replaceable methyl bromide for QPS 2,943 47% 27% Up to 47% of global consumption of MB for QPS reported in 2008 in the four highest MB-consuming categories was estimated to be immediately replaceable globally

22 East Asia Case Study Assessments : Preliminary Data, Mission Findings

23 QPS consumption of MB in Thailand ( ) Thailand: MB consumption for QPS Consumption Year Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

24 QPS consumption of MB in Vietnam ( ) Vietnam: MB consumption for QPS Consumption Year Ozone Secretariat Data Centre October 2010

25 Considerations addressed with respect to MB use for QPS (1) Clarification of categories of MB use for QPS; Trade issues that make MB pre-shipment (or quarantine) treatments necessary, including discussion of specific export market requirements for treated products; Identification of alternatives already in use, at least in part, for certain QPS categories of use and the level of installed capacity available; Cost of MB fumigations versus alternatives; Technical evaluation of alternatives available in-country, and identification of sectors in which training may be required to enhance the effectiveness of alternatives;

26 Considerations addressed with respect to MB use for QPS (2) Specification of MB use rates prior to export - possibility of adoption of reduced rate formulations to reduce quantities of MB used; Confirmation of key pests to be eliminated and identification of their quarantine or cosmopolitan nature; Registration status of recognized chemical alternatives (fumigants, contact insecticides); Instances/categories where adoption of alternatives may be fast-tracked; and Instances/categories where no alternatives are available.

27 Findings categories of use Thailand and Vietnam both have systems in place to track MB applications for QPS use (licensing & allowances for import of specific MB quantities) Allows tracking to ensure that MB imported for such purpose does not end up under controlled uses Country Thailand Vietnam Category of Use for QPS 1) grain (mostly pre-shipment) 2) ISPM-15 3) fresh produce, including orchids (represents a small quantity) 1) commodities export (mostly pre-shipment) 2) ISPM-15 3) small amounts for: i. nursery stock ii. commodities at import (infested with quarantine pests - re-fumigation)

28 Findings categories of use (2) Fumigation is done by commercial contract, backed by official regulations which legalize treatment as an exempted pre-shipment use under the MP Thailand - rice and cassava exported must be pestfree under the official Thai Rice Quality Standard and the Tapioca Standard, respectively. Vietnam - legal disposition officially regulated by the exporting country in Articles 23, 24 of the Plant Quarantine Regulation (enacted by Decree 92/CP of November 27th 1993), and Article 25 of Decree 02/2007/ND-CP on Plant Quarantine (05/01/2007)

29 Category of Use Grains/ Commodities Case Studies : Results of Analysis (1) Reasons for Treatment most instances, pre-shipment treatments are aimed at nonquarantine (cosmopolitan) pests that damage grain in storage and detract from its commercial value; some instances, fumigation is directed at a quarantine pest MB Alternatives Phosphine (principal accepted alternative) Considerations Achieving an acceptable level of freedom from cosmopolitan pests is generally easier than guaranteeing freedom from a quarantine pest, as requirements from an importing country in the latter case are much more stringent Grains and similar dry foodstuffs, either bagged or in bulk, can be delivered to an export point in a pest-free condition without MB fumigation being needed. The alternative of choice depends on: the commodity treated, the situation in which the treatment is required, the accepted level of efficacy and the cost and the time available for treatment.

30 Case Studies : Results of Analysis (2) Category of Use Reason for Treatment MB Alternative Potential for application ISPM-15 To prevent the international transport and spread of disease and insects that could negatively affect plants or ecosystems Heat, including kiln drying Sulfuryl fluoride, methyl iodide and phosphine (under consideration) Not in-kind alternatives (plastics, cardboard) In some countries (not all) involves higher costs Assessment of technical and economic feasibility is key Fresh produce / pre-plant (nursery stock) Target endemic, non-quarantine pests Pesticide dips, cold, irradiation, phosphine Feasibility requires assessment on case-by-case basis

31 Next Steps Analytic work to be finalized end April 2011 circulation to the project PMUs and relevant Bank colleagues for peer review and comments particular emphasis on identification of complementarities to Bank-supported efforts in the region such as food safety, agricultural commodities, and other trade related work efforts Results of the analytic work will be presented during a Bank-sponsored East Asia-Pacific Region ODS workshop, scheduled for May 2011 (Bangkok) prepare region s participants to engage in any MB QPSrelated negotiations that may arise during the 31 st Meeting of the OEWG of the Montreal Protocol (August 2011)

32 THANK YOU