Technology, Cultivation Practices, and Energy Inputs for Biodiesel. J. Alan Weber CRC October 20, 2009 Chicago, IL

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1 Technology, Cultivation Practices, and Energy Inputs for Biodiesel J. Alan Weber CRC October 20, 2009 Chicago, IL

2 Industry Snapshot

3 Raw Material Use,

4 Feedstock Sources Five Year Outlook

5 Near Term Feedstock Palm Oil Animal Fats Yellow Grease Cottonseed Oil Corn Oil from DDGS Soybean Oil Canola Oil Brassica Juncea Camelina Oil

6 What is on the Horizon?

7 Longer Term Sources Gaining Attention Longer Shots Algae Jatropha Halophytes Pennycress Brown Grease Photo by: Joel Rose Low Ricin Castor

8 Feedstock & Life Cycle Modeling Analysis of Trends

9 Yield Trends Example: Soybeans Example: Canola

10 The Combination of Breeding and Biotechnology Can Maximize Gains SOYBEAN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES YIELD IN BUSHELS PER ACRE Historical Yield Data Trend Based on Historical Yield Data Molecular Breeding Benefit Biotechnology Yield Benefit Grain yield potential in 2030 Sizable gain will be realized from MAB Average soybean yield in 2007 was 41.2 bushels per acre INNOVATIONS IN AG TECHNOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE VALUE CHAIN CONTRIBUTE TO YIELD GAIN Slide Courtesy of Monsanto

11 Higher Yielding Soybeans Continue to Demonstrate Improved Yield Over Non Transgenic Controls HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEANS COLLABORATION WITH Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key genes Plan to stack trait on top of Roundup Ready 2 Yield and other soybeanpipeline traits with an additive yield boost Average Yield Advantage (Bu/A Increase Over Control) HIGHER YIELDING SOYBEAN AGRONOMIC TESTING VERSUS CONTROLS 7.1% Percent yield difference vs. control 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3 EVENT 4 EVENT 5 18 Locations Product Concept Target Range More than 60 events were tested at 18 locations, with lead events showing strong yield advantages over conventional controls Discovery Phase 1 Proof of Concept Phase 2 Early Development Phase 3 Adv. Development Phase 4 Pre-Launch Launch Slide Courtesy of Monsanto

12 NUE Technology in Canola Transgenic NUE Canola Control Gene No Gene Seed yield [lb/ac] Arrow #1 Same yield, 66% less N NUE Canola Conventional Canola 1600 Arrow #2 33% Higher yield, same N Nitrogen application level [lb N/ac] 2009 Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.

13 NUE Canola Reduces GHG Emissions 70 GM NUE Conventional GHG emission rate (kg CO 2 -Eq/ton seed produced) (-44.2%) (-38.9%) 10 (-79.7%) 0 Ton seed/ha Minnesota North Dakota 1 North Dakota Arcadia Biosciences, Inc.

14 Tillage Trends

15 Tillage No national survey completed since Data varies by state on partial surveys since Other feedstocks (e.g. winter canola) are trending toward conservation tillage.

16 Tillage Impact on Energy Use University of Illinois Fuel Use Survey Fuel use Tillage System (gal/ac) Strip till 2.0 No till 2.0 Typical till 3.9 Deep till 4.7 Comments: Costs for grain hauling or general fuel use are not included Source: UIUC Farm Business Management Costs and Fuel Use for Alternative Tillage Systems Survey of Iowa farmers in 2006 documented infield fuel use (excluding harvest & transportation) at 1.93 gallons/acre.

17 What if Scenario What if farmers continued to adopt conservation tillage at the same rate as from 1994 to 2004? What if soybean yield potential was realized as envisioned by life science companies? What are the impacts on fuel use per bushel of production in 2030?

18 Advances in Technology Example: GPS & Variable Rate Technology Example: Engine Technology

19 Use of GPS & Variable Rate Technology Use of GPS and Variable Rate Technology Continues to Grow Offers savings in fuel use, chemical use, fertilizer use, as well as seed savings. Producer statements of 5% to 15% (or greater) reductions in fuel, chemical, and fertilizer. Need to verify data

20 New Engine Technology Environmental Regulations Catalyst for New Engine Technology Possible efficiency gains with new technology versus existing engine inventory Aftertreatment Devices Will Have Different Impacts E.g. fuel use for catalyst regeneration E.g. urea use for SCR systems

21 Feedstock & Life Cycle Modeling General Observations

22 Reliable Data Sets Need for review of data sets utilized with crop production and LCA modeling Example: Examine types of fertilizer, in addition to amounts Example: Robustness of data to represent majority of production Example: Last national tillage survey conducted in 2004 (CTIC)

23 Crop Models & ILUC Many existing agricultural models do not include economic relationships for all biodiesel feedstocks. Examples include: Animal fats & yellow grease Camelina Brassica juncea Need to ensure feedstocks are correctly incorporated. Example: Winter Canola

24 Winter Canola National canola average yield in 2008 was 1,461 lbs/acre (10 year average is 1,373 lbs/acre). Commercial yield averages in Kentucky were 2,500 and 3,500 lbs/acre in 07 and 08. Yield impacts of rotation need to be included: KSU reports 20% increases of wheat yields following canola 4,200 lbs/acre winter canola in Kentucky

25 Feedstock & Life Cycle Modeling Algae Production

26 Growing Algae Several production pathways being pursued Photobioreactors (PBR) High capital investment Lower risk of contamination with other strains Open Ponds/Raceway Pond Systems Lower capital investment relative to PBRs More prone to environmental factors such as temperature and evaporation Enzymatic Fermentation Industrial fermentation Utilizes carbon source as nutrient

27 LiveFuels Dirty Dozen Land Water Nutrients Strain Selection Temperature Predators and Parasites Toxins Salt Pumping Harvesting Concentrating Extraction

28 Salt and Pumping Water pumping costs can be significant Live Fuels estimates one gallon of algal oil production must move 20,000 to 40,000 gallons Water use is a function of evaporation and salinity Blowdown will impact energy use Salt water can be utilized for algae production Salinity of algal pond increases with evaporation, therefore producers will have to flush ponds Salinity level will impact how far or deep one can pump water economically

29 Dewatering & Extraction Industry analysts estimate dewatering and extraction represents 40% to 60% of the cost of a gallon of algal oil Current production utilizes several techniques; including centrifuging, drying, and solvent extraction Advancements will have to be made in order to meet economic thresholds New technology will impact LCA

30 Feedstock & Life Cycle Modeling Recommendations

31 Ensure breeding advancements are incorporated (impacts crop yield and crop inputs) Ensure technology and agricultural practice trends have been considered (impacts crop inputs) Need for thoroughly reviewed data sets Ensure appropriate feedstocks are correctly incorporated into agricultural and LCA models

32 Technology, Cultivation Practices, and Energy Inputs for Biodiesel J. Alan Weber CRC October 20, 2009 Chicago, IL