Simulation of tea yield with AquaCrop
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1 Climate Change and the Tea Sector in Kenya: Impact Assessment and Policy Action National Multi-stakeholder Workshop April 2013, Naivasha Simulation of tea yield with AquaCrop Dirk RAES, KU Leuven University, Leuven Belgium Patricia MEJIAS, FAO, Land and Water Division, Rome, Italy Samson KAMUNYA, John BORE, Beatrice CHESEREK, Paul KIPRONO, David KAMAU, Tea Research Foundation of Kenya Aziz Elbehri, FAO, Land and Water Division, Rome, Italy 1
2 Structure of the presentation 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production Yield formation 2. Running simulations Experimental fields Farmer s fields Effect of climate change 2
3 Instead of Leaf Area Index (LAI) AquaCrop uses green canopy cover (CC) CC = soil surface covered by the green canopy unit ground surface area ranges from 0 (bare soil) to 1 (full canopy cover) 0 % 100 % soil surface covered by green canopy unit ground surface 3
4 CC = 25 % Lung pruning CC = 95 % 4
5 Canopy development (non-limiting conditions) CC x = 95% CC ini = 25% 1.5 years 4 years pruning 5
6 Relative tea yield (non-limiting conditions) 1st 2nd 3rd 4th year year year year pruning 6
7 stored soil water (mm) evapotranspiration (ET) field capacity threshold wilting point irrigation (I) rainfall (P) Water stress (upper) thresholds leaf expansion TAW canopy senescence TAW TAW FC PWP 0.0 capillary rise (CR) (DP) deep percolation 7
8 Effect of water stress on canopy development 1 Jan 1996 senescence 31 Dec 1997 slow expansion 8
9 water stress coefficient for stomatal closure weather conditions crop coefficient Transpiration = Ks sto x Kc Tr x ETo reference evapotranspiration evaporative power of the atmosphere characteristics of the transpiring crop no water stress proportional to green canopy cover (CC) proportional factor (Kc Tr,x ) = 0.85 (integrating the effects of characteristics that distinguish the crop from the reference grass) 9
10 stored soil water (mm) evapotranspiration (ET) field capacity threshold wilting point irrigation (I) rainfall (P) leaf expansion Water stress (upper) thresholds stomatal closure canopy senescence TAW TAW FC TAW PWP 0.0 capillary rise (CR) (DP) deep percolation 10
11 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production CC WP* CO 2 H O 2 11
12 WP* normalized biomass water productivity 12
13 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production b i = Ks b WP* (Tr i /ETo i ) CC WP* 14 g/m 2 T base = 8 C cold stress 13
14 Effect of cold stress on biomass production C Tmax Tmin month 14
15 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production Yield formation CC WP* 14 g/m 2 HI 14 % 15
16 14 % 30 % = 1.2 years 16
17 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production Yield formation CC WP* 14 g/m 2 HI 14 % y i = Ks exp,w HI b i water stress 17
18 Rain water stress 18
19 Effect of water stress on tea yield
20 Structure of the presentation 1. Calculation scheme Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production Yield formation 2. Running simulations Experimental fields Farmer s fields Effect of climate change 20
21 Experimental fields WP* = 14 g/m 2 HI = 14 % CC x = 95 % pruning pruning 21
22 observed tea yield simulated tea yield 22
23 Experimental fields WP* = 14 g/m 2 HI = 14 % CC x = 95 % Farmer s fields pruning pruning WP* = 14 g/m 2 HI o = 10 % CC x = 70 %
24 average observed tea yield average simulated tea yield 24
25 average observed tea yield average simulated tea yield 1st year 3rd year 25
26 26
27 Statistical indicator Value Observation R values greater than 0.50 are considered acceptable RMSE 261 kg/ha it summarizes the mean difference in simulated and observed NRMSE 10.0 % a simulation can be considered excellent if NRMSE is smaller than 10% EF 0.66 an EF of 1 indicates a perfect match between the model and the observations, an EF of 0 means that the model predictions are as accurate as the average of the observed data d indicating no agreement and 1 indicating a perfect agreement between the predicted and observed data. This statistical indicator overcomes the insensitivity of R² and EF to systematic over- or underestimations by the model 27
28 - + + Effect of climate change Crop development Crop transpiration Biomass production Yield formation CC +++ WP* HI less water stress less temperature stress heat stress? CO 2 fertilization 28
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Ex: If porosity of a soil sample is 50% by volume, the moisture in each meter of a saturated soil is equivalent to 50 cm on the field surface.
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