Climate change impacts and adaptation of agriculture in the Netherlands

Transcription

1 Climate change impacts and adaptation of agriculture in the Netherlands Pytrik Reidsma, Ben Schaap 2, Maryia Mandryk, Argyris Kanellopoulos, oost Wolf, Frank Ewert 3, an Verhagen 2, Martin van Ittersum Plant Production Systems group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 2 Plant Research International, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands 3 Institute of Science and Resource Conservation Bonn University, Germany Introduction: Adaptation in the Netherlands Aim: climate proofing the Netherlands over all sectors including agriculture Area at risk with potential sea level rise Source:Wikipedia

2 of Flevoland 4 years ago and. 4 years ahead? 95 2 Future ? To assess impacts and adaptation in agriculture integrated approach Multiple drivers: climate, variability, technology, market, policies Multiple exposures: temperature increase, precipitation change, extreme events, sea level rise (salinization) and pests and diseases Multiple scales: global,, region, farm, field Multiple methods: historical analyses, scenarios, models, stakeholder workshops, interviews Integrated approach: scales, SD dimensions, stakeholders 2 & 25 Input & output prices Potential & actual yields Historicaloutlook analysis structural change ping patterns Effective adaptation strategies Economic, social, ecological indicators Interviews Workshops Potential & actual yields Impacts of extreme events Field Adaptation strategies at multiple scales

3 level Market model Input & output prices: 2 & 25 ping system model Potential yields: 2, 25 Integration climate, technology Actual yields: 2, 25 Absolute difference (Mgha ) Climate Potato yield Scenario (5GCM AB) Climate + CO 2 + Technology Ewert et al., 25; Heckelei & Britz, 2 al level Historical analysis & outlook Scenarios structural change: 25 2: Mainly production oriented; 4 ha; medium intensive; potato, sugar beet, onion, wheat 25 A: Global market B2: al communities Production Size x 2 High intensive More flowers & vegetables Multifunctional Size x.5 Medium intensive More diverse crops Pictures from Van der Kolk et al., 27

4 Field: yields 5 Million Euros damage by extreme rainfall Interviews Workshops ping system model Potential yields: 2, 25 Agro Climate Calendar Impact of extreme events: 2, 25 Integration climate, technology Actual yields: 2, 25 Field level: crop simulation model Winter wheat Potential yield base yr (t/ha).3 Waterlimited base yr (t/ha) ppm and climate 9% change Idem + adaptation % Potato ware % 4 % Potato seed % 9 % Sugar beet % 25 % Fodder maize % 7 % Sunflower % 5 % Onions % 27 % Tulip % 35 % Effects of CO 2 and climate change (W, +2 ) on waterlimited yields (Flevoland) Adaptation: 5 days earlier sowing date and more southern varieties All +, although for W+ also negative impacts expected

5 level: weather extremes, onion Define weather events that are harmful to crops Couple weather events to frequency of occurrence Frequency of weather events reference climate (3 years:97625) future climate (3 years: ) Schaap et al., 29 Onion: climate factors harmful to seed onion Climate factor Timing Impact on crop Damage Long dry period in spring febapr failure % Long dry period in summer junejuly Growth & yield reduction 34% Flooded soil septoct Harvest not possible; diseases % Strong rains july aug Bacteria infections 5% Warm and wet july aug Fungi infect leaves 56% Schaap et al., 29

6 Onion: frequency of climate factors now Reference period: 99 (97625) Climate factor F M A M A S O N D Long dry period in spring 2 Long dry period in summer 3 Flooded soil Strong rains Warm and wet Daily weather information from weather station Eelde (source: KNMI) Schaap et al., 29 Onion: frequency change of climate factors High emission scenario 24 (226255, +2 C) Climate factor F M A M A S O N D Long dry period in spring + Long dry period in summer Flooded soil Strong rains + Warm and wet Next step: define adaptation strategies for major climate risks Schaap et al., 29

7 Adaptation workshops with stakeholders Adaptation strategies for onion Climate factor Adaptation strategy Level Yearly costs Investment Irrigation Medium High Long dry period in summer (crop failure) al water management Resowing Low Very high Sowing at higher density Low Warm and wet (fungi) Chemical protection UV protection Develop resistant varieties Sector Medium Medium Low Very high Costeffectiveness: damage <> costs + investment

8 level: Bioeconomic farm modelling Field Field 2 Field 3 FSSIMAgricultural Management (AM) Activities: inputsoutputs FSSIMMathematical Programming (MP) layout income and costs Externalities Historcaloutlook analysis objective: profit, risk, other Resource constraints Policy constraints = economic, social & environmental indicators Fixed cropping pattern calculations performance: 2, 25 Data Envelopment Analysis Strategies of actual farms: 2 Bioeconomic modeling Strategies farm types: 22 and 25 Interviews Workshops Field Louhichi et al., 2, Kanellopoullos et al., 2 Integrated assessment of adaptation strategies Scale dependent responses Drivers Climate Market Impact Adaptation Policy Subsidies Protection Global Country Field Agriculture Performance, Risk, Resilience Food production Land use Income Environment Productivity Global (WTO,..) (CAP,..) National management management Van Ittersum et al., 28

9 Concluding remarks For adequate adaptation we have to answer multiple questions on impacts and adaptation at multiple scales Context of future farms is needed to assess impacts and evaluate adaptation: towards multifunctional agriculture Adaptation has impact on economic, social and environmental indicators Climatic extremes are not well captured in crop models Adaptation is dynamic, scale dependent and driven by stakeholders Use of methods from SEAMLESS Integrated Framework to assess impact and adaptation Thank you for your attention Pytrik Reidsma Plant Production Systems, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands