Quantitative assessment of sustainable (food) nutrition security

Transcription

1 Quantitative assessment of sustainable (food) nutrition security Frank A. Ewert Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Germany 1

2 Outline Background Impacts assessment (examples and tools) Climate change Climate variability (heat stress) Ozone exposure Towards modelling food nutrition Callenges Ongoing efforts 2

3 Background Impacts Drivers System Impact variables Climatic factors Soil, other resources Genetic properties Management Food production (productivity) (area) Yield Product quality Environment

4 Background Models for impacts assessment Dynamic simulation models Crop model structure Weather and CO 2 Climate Breeding Crop Soil Management Phenology Radiation interception Assimilation Respiration Allocation Plant N ET Soil H 2 O, N and C Organ growth Leaves, stems,... Roots

5 Background Modelling across scales Globe Continent Country Region Farm Process knowledge Scale(s) of important topics Climate change Food security Food nutrition secur. Energy security Sustainable land use Scale(s) of process knowledge Field Up-scaling 5

6 Impact assessment (examples) Climate change impacts Centered at 2040 (24 years) Winter wheat LINTUL-FAST 7 GCMs 4 IPCC scenarios 550 Agri climatic zones Relative importance of C, CO 2 and technology? Climate Climate and CO 2 Climate, CO 2 and technology Angulo et al., 2013

7 Impact assessment Climate change impacts Centered at 2040 (24 years) Responses differ depending on the crop? Angulo et al., 2013

8 Impact assessment (examples) Climate change impacts Centered at 2040 (24 years) Winter barley LINTUL-FAST 7 GCMs 4 IPCC scenarions 550 Agri climatic zones Climate, CO 2 and technology Spatial pattern in responses Scenario A1B Scenario B1 Angulo et al., 2013

9 Impact assessment (tools) Model linking 9

10 Impact assessment (examples) Climate variability Temperature anomaly, Europe, 2003 Battisti et al. (2009) 10

11 Impact assessment (examples) Impact of heat stress Global impacts of heat stress on 4 major crops Global area under risk of hea- stress (Mha) Base A1B Base A1B Base A1B Base A1B Wheat Maize Rice Soybean Base line ( ) and A1B ( ) Teixeira et al. (2013)

12 Impact assessment Global impacts of heat stress Base line ( ) and A1B ( ) Teixeira et al. (2013) Figure. The maximum heat stress intensity within a 30-year simulation in areas suitable for production. For the baseline climate (Base, ) 12 and the A1B climate change scenario ( ).

13 Impact assessment (examples) Impact of tropospheric ozone Global impacts of ozone stress on crops Photo courtesy U.S. EPA Simulated impact of ozone stress on wheat yield Base line ( ) Ozone (2000, 2030) a) Land at risk (%) b) Production loss (%) Teixeira et al. (2011) 13

14 Impact assessment (examples) Impact of tropospheric ozone Global impacts of ozone stress on 4 major crops + O 3 Teixeira et al. (2011) 14

15 Impacts Impact of ozone Global impacts Adaptation Crop calender irrigation Numbers represent Ozone effects (2030 vs. 2000) Teixeira et al. (2011) 15

16 Towards modelling food nutrition Relationship N-concentration and grain yield Figure: N concentration (A) and N yield (B) versus yield for mature grains of four cultivars (Arche, Récital, Renan, and Tamaro) of winter wheat grown at three levels of N availability ( N, L, +N) in the field or under semi-controlled conditions. Triboi et al., 2006

17 Towards modelling food nutrition Selected simulations (Sirius) Total above ground N (g m-2) Three fertilisation levels Low N Medium N High N Total grain N (g m-2) Martre et al., 2006

18 Towards modelling food nutrition Selected simulations (Sirius) albumins-globulins, amphiphilic (mg N grain-1) Three fertilisation levels Low N Medium N High N gliadins, glutenins (mg N grain-1) Martre et al., 2006

19 Challenges Model improvement (crop models) Model uncertainty propagation Model integration Cross-disciplines and scales Model application for IAM (integrated assessment modelling) Impacts, adaptation, mitigation Data collection, model parameterisation, testing Further development of methodological basis For IAM including adaptation Stakeholder interaction Farmers, policy makers, food companies Crop model improvements Pests, weeds, diseases New crops Rotations and management (CA, ) Heat stress Technology development Product quality (nutritional value) 19

20 Ongoing efforts Crop Modelling Theme Partner Countries: (36 partners in 16 countries) Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Estonia developemnt Finland France Germany Italy The Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Spain Sweden UK Model comparison and improvement Data collection and analysis Methods of model scaling and linkig Uncertainty analysis and scenario Capacity building Stakeholder interaction Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security 20

21 Ongoing efforts Other themes and activities Crop modelling Livestock modelling Economic modelling Methodological case studies Regional pilot studies Capacity bulding Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries MACSUR partner countries

22 Ongoing efforts Activities Network regions Integrated Assessment Crop studies Other initiatives Cross-cutting issues Training AgMIP Regional Activities

23 Quantitative assessment of sustainable (food) nutrition security Frank A. Ewert Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University of Bonn, Germany 23