ZAMBIA mvam Bulletin #8: January/ February 2017

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1 Food security deteriorated in Western province Key points: Food consumption worsened in Western province but improved in Eastern and Southern provinces in February compared to January 3-4 percentage point reduction in use of some coping strategies in February compared to January Prices of maize, beans and groundnuts increased in the peak lean month of February Maize prices increased sharply in Kawambwa (Luapula), Mpongwe (Copperbelt) and Mansa (Luapula) between January and February Sharp increase in prices of beans were recorded in Luwingu (Luapula) and Serenje (Central) An outbreak of army worms and stem borers has affected much of Copperbelt, Southern and Lusaka provinces. Despite these events, the outlook for the 2016/17 season is fair to good in most districts of the five monitored provinces. Efforts such as provision of agro-chemicals and seeds of early maturing maize for replanting, which have been led by the government (Ministry of Agriculture and Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit), helped control outbreaks. Prospects of a good maize and legume harvest for the 2016/17 season seem better than the harvest from last season (2015/16), which was characterized by prolonged dry spells that occurred at critical growth stages for most crops. No major livestock diseases were reported, while pasture and water availability was very good especially in the livestock-rearing areas of Central, Eastern, Southern and Western provinces. WFP/David Orr Map 1: Areas surveyed for the Household and Markets Seasonal outlook 1

2 Source: mvam, February 2017 Source: mvam, January 2017 Food consumption remains stable between January and February The Food Consumption Score (FCS) provides the consumption levels of nutrient-rich food groups for households. The FCS remained stable among the sampled households in the five monitored provinces at 51.7 in January and 50.9 in February However, differences between the provinces, and changes in consumption compared to January were observed. Copperbelt province had the largest proportion of households with acceptable food consumption in both January and February, whereas Eastern province reported the lowest proportion of households (51 percent) with acceptable food consumption in January. The largest percentage of households reporting poor food consumption (25 percent) in January was from Western province. Map. 2: FCS by region January 2017 In February, the food security situation in Western worsened, with only 39 percent households reporting acceptable food consumption compared to 58 percent in January. This deterioration can be attributed to heavy rainfall and the subsequent flooding which inhibited access to seasonal foods (pumpkins, mushrooms and green maize) in these areas. In comparison, the situation improved slightly in Southern province and considerably in Eastern province. With the delayed start of rainfall in Eastern and Southern provinces, seasonal foods become available only in February resulting in improved consumption levels. In Southern province, households reporting poor consumption dropped to 7.6 percent in February compared to 9.4 percent in January, whereas in Eastern province these numbers decreased from 23.2 percent to 15.5 percent (Figure1). Figure 1: Food consumption by province Map. 3: FCS by region February WFP/Photographer In all references to provinces, this report only refers to the districts surveyed in the province. Please see methodology for list of districts surveyed 2

3 Higher coping levels among worse-off households The reduced Coping Strategies Index (rcsi) shows the severity of unsustainable consumption strategies employed by households to deal with lack of food as a result of shocks. While the median rcsi for Zambia remained stable (rcsi=7) during January and February, the worst-off households continued to be more insecure than the better-off households (Figure 2). Figure 2: Median rcsi by wall type The material used for the walls of the household s dwelling was used a proxy for the household s socio-economic status. The worst-off households (those using sticks or mud bricks to build walls) reported considerably higher coping levels than the better-off households (those using cement blocks to build walls). Reduction in use of some coping strategies Figure 3: Use of coping strategies Even though the rcsi has remained stable, a decrease in the use of some coping strategies was observed in February compared to January. In February, 36 percent of households were borrowing food or relying on help from friends compared to 40 percent in January. Fifty percent were limiting portion sizes in February compared to 53 percent in January (Figure 3). Households headed by women were observed to have higher stress levels than those headed by men in January: a larger proportion of households headed by women reported limiting portion sizes and restricting adult food consumption to allow children to eat (one of the more severe strategies). WFP/Photographer 3

4 Source: mvam, February 2017 Maize prices increase in most monitored districts During January, maize prices increased in some surveyed districts. Furthermore, in February, maize prices increased in all surveyed districts, except Chiengi (Luapula) and Luwingu (Northern) where they remained stable compared to January. However, the highest increases in January compared to December were recorded in Chiengi (15 percent), Luwingu and Kapiri Moshi (18 percent). In February, the largest increase was observed in Kawambwa (Luapula) at 28 percent (Figures 4a and 4b). Further price increases, betw een 10 and 16 percent, were observed in February in Kapiri Mposhi and Mkushi (Central), Mansa (Luapula) and Mpongwe (Copperbelt). Figure 4a: : Maize prices (ZMK/kg) in monitored districts within Central, Copperbelt, Southern and Western provinces The February average maize price (ZMK2.17/kg) was 10 percent higher than the January average (ZMK1.97/kg) for the 24 monitored districts. These averages were also higher than the national five-year average for January 2011-Janury 2016 (ZMK1.48/kg) and for February 2011 February 2016 (ZMK1.50/kg), respectively (source: FAO GIEWS). Map. 4: Maize prices by district (ZMK/kg), February 2017 Figure 4b: : Maize prices (ZMK/kg) for monitored districts in Eastern, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces 4

5 Source: mvam, February 2017 Source: mvam, February 2017 Bean and groundnut prices increase in peak lean month Figure 5: Bean prices by district (ZMK/kg) Bean prices in most monitored districts remained stable in January, with a slight decrease reported in Luwingu. However, increases were reported in most districts in February, which is normal for the peak of the lean period. There is an increased demand for beans during this period as the supplies of most seasonal foods are diminishing, while in January, the availability and consumption of seasonal foods stabilized bean prices. Sharp increases between 14 and 18 percent were recorded in Central (Mkushi and Serenje) and Luapula (Luwingu and Mansa) in February. Chadiza, Chipata and Lundazi (Eastern) experienced an 11 percent increase from January (Figure 5). Prices are expected to stabilise as the main harvest of beans draws closer (March/April). Most districts in Southern, Western, Northern, Muchinga, Luapula and Central provinces recorded increases in the price of groundnuts in February compared to the previous month (Figure 6). Chadiza and Chipata (Eastern), Chipili (Luapula) and Choma (Southern) registered an increase between 22 and 28 percent. A few districts including Kaoma (Western), Kapiri Mposhi (Central), Chiengi and Mansa (Luapula) and Mafinga (Muchinga), however, did experience price reductions that ranged between 15 and 22 percent. The increases in price of groundnuts are part of the normal seasonal trend observed during the peak of the lean period. Figure 6: Groundnut prices by district (ZMK/kg) WFP/Photographer 5

6 Respondents are worried about not having enough food During January/February 2017, respondents major concern was hunger and the limited availability of food. This is expected as February is the peak of the lean period. Other concerns expressed were those which have the potential to hamper agricultural output such as limited access to fertilizers, the continuing high rainfall and the army worm outbreak. Figure 7: Word cloud Food is there but it is too expensive. Maize is now getting damaged because of army worms. - Female respondent in Ndola, Copperbelt We have floods and army worms, so we won't have enough food next year. For now the situation is a bit fair. - Male respondent in Petauke, Eastern province There is hunger at the moment and we will have a smaller harvest due to floods. - Male respondent in Mongu, Western province The situation is moderate because most people saved maize from last year but a few have sold everything. - Male respondent in Chongwe, Lusaka province The food situation is good though in some parts they don't have food due to poor rainfall last year. - Female respondent in Choma, Southern Province Methodology In January 2017, household food security data collection commenced under WFP s mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (mvam) initiative using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). Data was collected from a total of 1000 respondents from 12 districts in 5 provinces: Copperbelt (Ndola and Chililabombwe), Eastern (Mambwe and Petauke), Lusaka (Chongwe and Rufunsa), Southern (Choma, Gwembe and Livingstone) and Western (Kalabo, Mongu and Sesheke). Participants were randomly selected from a database of mobile subscribers. An airtime credit incentive of US$0.50 (ZMK4.90) was given to respondents for successfully completing the survey. The household food security survey collects data on demographics, food consumption, coping strategies, wealth profiles (based on dwelling materials), and food assistance. The survey allows respondents to provide additional information on the food situation in their communities. The data was weighted by the number of mobile phones owned by the household and district population estimates. In addition, WFP Zambia s in-house call centre, which has been operational since May 2016, conducted telephone interviews with key informants to collect weekly information on the prices of foods including maize, rice, groundnuts, cassava and beans, as well as information on general food availability and market accessibility. The surveys are carried out with a sample of 51 traders across 24 districts. The number of responses reduced from 218 in January 2017 to 154 in February Phone surveys contain inherent response biases; therefore, the bulletin reports patterns and trends WFP/Photographer rather than precise estimates. 6

7 Source: mvam, February 2017 Table 1. Bean, maize and groundnut prices in surveyed districts (ZMK/kg) Districts Beans Maize Groundnuts Current 17-Jan % Change Current 17-Jan % Change Current 17-Jan % Change Kaoma Sesheke Kapiri Mposhi Mkushi Serenje Chadiza Chipata Katete Lundazi Petauke Chiengi Chipili Kawambwa Mansa Kasama Luwingu Choma Kalomo Mazabuka Monze Mpongwe Mafinga Nakonde Mwandi For further information Allan Mulando Arif Husain Andrew Odero allan.mulando@wfp.org arif.husain@wfp.org andrew.odero@wfp.org mvam Resources: Website: / vam.w fp.org/ sites/ mvam_monitoring/ Blog: mvam.org Toolkit: / resources.vam.w fp.org/ mvam