The Naked Future: What Happens in a World that Anticipates Your Every Move? Move the Algorithms; Not the Data!
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1 The Naked Future: What Happens in a World that Anticipates Your Every Move? Move the Algorithms; Not the Data! Charlie Berger, MS Engineering, MBA Sr. Director Product Management, Machine Learning, AI and Cognitive Analytics charlie.berger@oracle.com
2 Safe Harbor Statement The following is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions. The development, release, and timing of any features or functionality described for Oracle s products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle. 2
3 Today Google Now Provides Tailored Local Updates Get Droid alerts/updates: Local news Local weather Your stated interests Your sports teams National news updates
4 Imagine these scenarios Meet old Girlfriend at Coffee Shop Wake up, read Droid alert about meeting a old girlfriend in the coffee shop who will be getting married, but hasn t told anyone yet. Change of address Adopt a dog Facebook pictures Tweets Online ring purchase by close contact When you meet your old girlfriend at the coffee shop this morning, act surprised to learn she is getting married
5 Imagine these scenarios Get called to pick up child at School Get Droid alert to pick up your child at school before she sits next to student with 75% chance of getting flu today and who has a elderly, fragile grandmother whose DNA shows she would be in severe risk. Location and status Distance Relationships Genomics, exposure health risks
6 Predictive Analytics Not New Remember the Plague? Spreading throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, the Black Death is estimated to have killed 30 60% of Europe's total population. Remember more of the story?
7 to today!
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9 The Near Future Big Data, Interconnected World + Machine Learning Datafication of EVERYTHING Digital exhaust GPS Tweets Geo-tags Facebook posts, pics, friends LinkedIn RFID Medical records
10 Big Data, Interconnected World + Machine Learning The Very Near Future is already here
11 2001: A Space Odyssey The Dawn of Man scene Our adoption of machine learning and artificial intelligence is about at this stage the BEGINNING!
12 Big Data Analytics Urban Myths Very possible, but not actually true Targets Predicts Daughter s Pregnancy Story told as, based on new purchase of pregnancy related items, Target sends Congrats on your new baby promos to house. Beer & Diaper Story Told as either Walmart or Osco Drug noticed a correlation, found the pattern, moved beer and diapers closer and earned higher profits. The rest of the story: The rest of the story:
13 Big Data Notable Moments in Time Very true; perhaps not noticed at the time Deep Blue versus Garry Kasparov Was a two chess matches between world chess champ Garry Kasparov and IBM supercomputer Deep Blue. IBM Watson Wins Jeopardy Computer Wins on Jeopardy! : Trivial, It s Not! Kasparov won the first match. The second in New York City in 1997 was won by Deep Blue. Source: Source:
14 Big Data Notable Moments in Time Very true; perhaps not noticed at the time Predicting Human Genome The Use of Pedometers to Predict Ovulation and Get Cows Pregnant Generic approach to cancer classification based on gene expression monitoring by DNA microarrays is described and applied to human acute leukemias as a test case. A class discovery procedure automatically discovered the distinction between acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute. Source: Molecular classification of cancer: class discovery and class prediction by gene expression monitoring Source:
15 Big Data Notable Moments in Time Very true; perhaps not noticed at the time Personalized Gas Pump Advertising Using Tweets to Predict Your Location Machine learning to gather mountains of data in order to predict where people are mostly likely to be at certain times during the day 1.5 years in advance! Source: Source: Out_AAAI-12.pdf York-shows-crowd-mobility.html
16 Big Data Notable Moments in Time HOW BIG DATA MINES PERSONAL INFO TO CRAFT FAKE NEWS AND MANIPULATE VOTERS Cambridge Analytics During US Presidential Election (Ted Cruz) Amazing precise and successful use case of uplift modeling 45,000 likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers who needed a little persuasion message very low in neuroticism, quite low in openness and slightly conscientious Among other things, care about -- Gun rights Click Jeffrey Jay Ruest, gender: male, and his GPS coordinates.
17 Big Data Notable Moments in Time Very true; perhaps not noticed at the time Facial Emotion Detection Health Predictions based on your DNA Skeptical Afraid Unhappy Happy Angry Happy Source:
18 Big Data Notable Moments in Time Very true; perhaps not noticed at the time Environmental Impact Predictions based on Behaviors Predict Buyers Remorse?? Add There this an to your 80 Cart? probability that you will regret this purchase. Source:
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20 The Core Ingredients of Good Machine Learning Domain Knowledge + Data Machine Learning Algorithms Insights, Predictions A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7
21 Most Important Factor in Machine Learning? Deployment!!
22 Take a Brief Moment to Tweet about my #OOW Talk
23 Machine Learning and Advanced Analytics Functionality Overview Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
24 Dilbert on Big Data 2
25 Machine Learning/Analytics + Data Warehouse + Hadoop/Spark Platform Sprawl Inherent Problems Complexity Data Movement Duplicated Data Data Latency Security exposures Duplicated Storage Duplicated Backups Duplicated Systems Dupicated Space and Power
26 Traditional vs. Oracle Machine Learning/Predictive Analtyics Traditional Move the data Don t move the data! 2
27 Traditional vs. Oracle Machine Learning/Predictive Analtyics Traditional Move the data Move the algorithms Simpler, Smarter Data Management + Analytics / Machine Learning Architecture
28 Oracle s Machine Learning/Advanced Analytics Fastest Way to Deliver Enterprise-wide Predictive Analytics Major Benefits Data remains in Database & Hadoop Model building and scoring occur in-database Use R packages with data-parallel invocations Leverage investment in Oracle IT Eliminate data duplication Eliminate separate analytical servers Deliver enterprise-wide applications GUI for ML/Predictive Analytics & code gen R interface leverages database as HPC engine Traditional Analytics Data Import Data Mining Model Scoring Data Prep. & Transformation Data Mining Model Building Data Prep & Transformation Data Extraction Hours, Days or Weeks Oracle Advanced Analytics avings Model Scoring Embedded Data Prep Model Building Data Preparation Secs, Mins or Hours Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
29 Operationalizing and Embedding Analytics for Action How long does it take to put a defined model into operational use?? Length of time to put a model into production.? Based on 141 respondents who stated they are doing this today? 29
30 Oracle s Machine Learning/Advanced Analytics Fastest Way to Deliver Scalable Enterprise-wide Predictive Analytics Key Features Parallel, scalable machine learning algorithms and R integration In-Database + Hadoop Don t move the data Data analysts, data scientists & developers Drag and drop workflow, R and SQL APIs Extends data management into powerful advanced/predictive analytics platform Enables enterprise predictive analytics deployment + applications
31 Oracle s Machine Learning & Adv. Analytics Algorithms CLASSIFICATION Naïve Bayes Logistic Regression (GLM) Decision Tree Random Forest Neural Network Support Vector Machine CLUSTERING Hierarchical K-Means Hierarchical O-Cluster Expectation Maximization (EM) ANOMALY DETECTION One-Class SVM TIME SERIES Holt-Winters, Regular & Irregular, with and w/o trends & seasonal Single, Double Exp Smoothing REGRESSION Linear Model Generalized Linear Model Support Vector Machine (SVM) Stepwise Linear regression Neural Network LASSO ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE Minimum Description Length Principal Comp Analysis (PCA) Unsupervised Pair-wise KL Div CUR decomposition for row & AI ASSOCIATION RULES A priori/ market basket PREDICTIVE QUERIES Predict, cluster, detect, features SQL ANALYTICS SQL Windows, SQL Patterns, SQL Aggregates A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 OAA (Oracle Data Mining + Oracle R Enterprise) and ORAAH combined OAA includes support for Partitioned Models, Transactional, Unstructured, Geo-spatial, Graph data. etc, FEATURE EXTRACTION Principal Comp Analysis (PCA) Non-negative Matrix Factorization Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) TEXT MINING SUPPORT Algorithms support text type Tokenization and theme extraction Explicit Semantic Analysis (ESA) for document similarity STATISTICAL FUNCTIONS Basic statistics: min, max, median, stdev, t-test, F-test, Pearson s, Chi-Sq, ANOVA, etc. R PACKAGES CRAN R Algorithm Packages through Embedded R Execution Spark MLlib algorithm integration EXPORTABLE ML MODELS C and Java code for deployment
32 Oracle s Machine Learning/Advanced Analytics Platforms Machine Learning Algorithms Embedded in the Data Management Platforms Analytics Producers Analytics Consumers Data Scientists, R Users, Citizen Data Scientists BI Analysts, Managers Functional Users (HCM, CRM) Data Management + Advanced Analytical Platform Big Data SQL Big Data Cloud Service Oracle Machine Learning Big Data Cloud ORAAH Machine Learning Algorithms, Statistical Functions + R Integration for Scalable, Parallel, Distributed Execution Database Cloud Oracle Machine Learning Database Edition Machine Learning Algorithms, Statistical Functions + R Integration for Scalable, Parallel, Distributed, in-db Execution
33 Manage and Analyze All Your Data Data Scientists, R Users, Citizen Data Scientists Architecturally, Many Options and Flexibility SQL / R Boil down the Data Like Big Data SQL / R Object Store Engineered Features Derived attributes that reflect domain knowledge key to best models e.g: Counts Totals Changes over time
34 Why Oracle? Because that s where the data is! Larry Ellison, Executive Chairman and CTO of Oracle Corporation 34
35 Build Predictive Models on an Attribute Oracle s Machine Learning Accelerates New Possibilities Machine Learning Model Function(X 1, X 2,.X) Y (LTV_BIN); Probability
36 Build Predictive Models on an Attribute Oracle s Machine Learning Accelerates New Possibilities Machine Learning Model Function(X 1, X 2,.X) Y (LTV_BIN); Probability
37 Build Predictive Models on an Attribute Oracle s Machine Learning Accelerates New Possibilities Machine Learning Models Function(X 1, X 2,.X) Y2 (BankFunds Y (LTV_BIN); Probability
38 Build Predictive Models on an Attribute Oracle s Machine Learning Accelerates New Possibilities Machine Learning Models Function(X 1, X 2,.X) Y2 (BankFunds Y (LTV_BIN); Probability
39 Oracle Advanced Analytics 12.2 Model Build Time Performance Unofficial T7-4 (Sparc & Solaris) X5-4 (Intel and Linux) OAA 12.2 Algorithms Rows (Ms) Model Build Time (Secs / Degree of Parallelism) Wow! That s Fast! Attributes Importance s / s / 72 K Means Clustering s / s / 144 Expectation Maximization s / s / 144 Naive Bayes Classification s / s / 72 GLM Classification s / s / 144 GLM Regression s / s / 144 In 24 hours, could build new predictive models for entire United States Population, for 400 attributes, 4 times! Support Vector Machine (IPM solver) s / s / 144 Support Vector Machine (SGD solver) s / s / 72 The way to read their results is that they compare 2 chips: X5 (Intel and Linux) and T7 (Sparc and Solaris). They are measuring scalability (time in seconds) with increase degree of parallelism (dop). The data also has high cardinality Copyright categorical 2016, Oracle columns and/or which its affiliates. translates All rights in reserved. 9K mining attributes (when algorithms require explosion). There are no comparisons to 12.1 and it is fair to say that the 12.1 algorithms could not run on data of this size.
40 1-Click, 100% Automated, SQL Predictive Queries Oracle s Machine Learning Accelerates New Possibilities Predictive Queries 1-Click immediate machine learning model build AND model apply as a SQL query Classification & regression Multi-target problems Clustering query Anomaly query Feature extraction query 1-Click Predictions! Automatically creates multiple anomaly detection models Grouped_By and scores by partition via powerful highly automated SQL query Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
41 Oracle Data Miner workflow UI Oracle SQL Developer extention; Easy to Use for Citizen Data Scientist Easy to use to define analytical methodologies that can be shared SQL Developer Extension Workflow API and generates SQL code for immediate deployment Oracle Cloud
42 ML Model Deployment for Real-Time Scoring Real-Time Scoring, Predictions and Recommendations On-the-fly, single record apply with new data (e.g. from call center) Oracle Cloud Select prediction_probability(clas_dt_1_15, 'Yes' USING 7800 as bank_funds, 125 as checking_amount, 20 as credit_balance, 55 as age, 'Married' as marital_status, 250 as MONEY_MONTLY_OVERDRAWN, 1 as house_ownership) from dual; Call Center Social Media Get Advice Branch Office R Likelihood to respond: Web Mobile
43 Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
![R: Transparency via function overloading Invoke in-database aggregation function Oracle Cloud > aggdata <- aggregate(ontime_s$dest, + by = list(ontime_s$dest), + FUN = length) > class(aggdata) [1]](/docs-images/71/65755079/images/44-1.jpg "\"ore.frame\" attr(,\"package\") [1] \"OREbase\" > head(aggdata) Group.")
44 R: Transparency via function overloading Invoke in-database aggregation function Oracle Cloud > aggdata <- aggregate(ontime_s$dest, + by = list(ontime_s$dest), + FUN = length) > class(aggdata) [1] "ore.frame" attr(,"package") [1] "OREbase" > head(aggdata) Group.1 x 1 ABE ABI 34 3 ABQ ABY 10 5 ACK 3 6 ACT 33 Oracle Advanced Analytics ORE Client Packages Transparency Layer Oracle SQL select DEST, count(*) from ONTIME_S group by DEST Oracle Database ONTIME_S In-db Stats Database Server Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
45 Machine Learning Copyright 2016, Oracle and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
46 Oracle Machine Learning and Advanced Analytics Strategy and Road Map One server side product, with a single analytic library, supporting multiple data platforms, analytical engines, UIs and deployment strategies GUI Data Miner, RStudio Notebooks SQL ML Algorithms Common core, parallel, distributed R, Python, etc. Advanced Analytics Big Data / Big Data Cloud Relational Oracle Database Cloud DWCS
47 Oracle s Machine Learning/Advanced Analytics Platforms Machine Learning Algorithms Embedded in the Data Management Platforms Analytics Producers Data Scientists, R Users, Citizen Data Scientists New Zeppelin notebook based UI for data scientists collaborating and sharing ML analytical methodologies in Clouds Data Management + Advanced Analytical Platform Big Data SQL Big Data Cloud Service Oracle Machine Learning Big Data Cloud ORAAH Machine Learning Algorithms, Statistical Functions + R Integration for Scalable, Parallel, Distributed Execution Database Cloud Oracle Machine Learning Database Edition Machine Learning Algorithms, Statistical Functions + R Integration for Scalable, Parallel, Distributed, in-db Execution
48 Oracle Machine Learning Machine Learning Notebook for Autonomous Data Warehouse Cloud Key Features Collaborative UI for data scientists Packaged with Autonomous Data Warehouse Cloud (V1) Easy access to shared notebooks, templates, permissions, scheduler, etc. SQL ML algorithms API (V1) Supports deployment of ML analytics
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56 Imagine these scenarios Droid Suggest my Optimal Next Activity Charlie, To optimize, tonight you should: 1. Enjoy a nice dinner at a restaurant 65% 2. Go to Do-It-U-Self Depot for weekend project. 23% 3. Mac n Cheese + How to Home Repair YouTube 97% Charlie, To optimize, tonight you should: 1. Enjoy a nice dinner at a restaurant 65% 2. Go to Do-It-U-Self Depot for weekend project. 23% 3. Mac n Cheese + How to YouTube 97%
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58 Assemble the Right Data for Each Prediction Purchases Demographics Temporal data and changes in behaviors Networks Location GPS Predictions as inputs
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65 Take a Brief Moment to Tweet about my #OOW Talk LinkedIn tagged as in my network Single Malt Whiskey fan Brendan Tierney, Oracle ACE, Author, Expert Geo-tagged as San Francisco
66 Update Droid Suggests my Optimal Next Activity Charlie, Update, to optimize, tonight you should: 1. Enjoy a single malt with friends! 2. Catch up on work 3. See other OOW talks on ML 95% 30% 60% Charlie, Update, to optimize, tonight you should: 1. Enjoy a single malt with friends! 95% 2. Catch up on work 30% 3. See other OOW talks on ML 60%
67 Update Droid Suggests my Optimal Next Activity
68 Minority Report Possible Sooner Than 2054? It is like Minority Report but with the precogs replaced by Oracle s Machine Learning and AI and perhaps sooner than
69 Machine Learning & Advanced Analytics Getting Started
70 Getting Started Oracle ML/AA Resources & Links Oracle Advanced Analytics Overview Information Oracle's Machine Learning and Advanced Analytics 12.2c and Oracle Data Miner 4.2 New Features preso Oracle Advanced Analytics Public Customer References Oracle s Machine Learning and Advanced Analytics Data Management Platforms white paper on OTN Oracle INTERNAL ONLY OAA Product Management Wiki and Beehive Workspace (contains latest presentations, demos, product, etc. information) YouTube recorded Oracle Advanced Analytics Presentations and Demos, White Papers Oracle's Machine Learning & Advanced Analytics 12.2 & Oracle Data Miner 4.2 New Features YouTube video Library of YouTube Movies on Oracle Advanced Analytics, Data Mining, Machine Learning (7+ live Demos e.g. Oracle Data Miner 4.0 New Features, Retail, Fraud, Loyalty, Overview, etc.) Overview YouTube video of Oracle s Advanced Analytics and Machine Learning Getting Started/Training/Tutorials Link to OAA/Oracle Data Miner Workflow GUI Online (free) Tutorial Series on OTN Link to OAA/Oracle R Enterprise (free) Tutorial Series on OTN Link to Try the Oracle Cloud Now! Link to Getting Started w/ ODM blog entry Link to New OAA/Oracle Data Mining 2-Day Instructor Led Oracle University course. Oracle Data Mining Sample Code Examples Send an now to charlie.berger@oracle.com and my away message will send you many of these links Additional Resources, Documentation & OTN Discussion Forums Oracle Advanced Analytics Option on OTN page OAA/Oracle Data Mining on OTN page, ODM Documentation & ODM Blog OAA/Oracle R Enterprise page on OTN page, ORE Documentation & ORE Blog Oracle SQL based Basic Statistical functions on OTN Oracle R Advanced Analytics for Hadoop (ORAAH) on OTN Analytics and Data Summit, All Analytics, All Data, No Nonsense. March 20-22, 2018, Redwood Shores, CA
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