Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013. Final Report SUMMARY. February 2014

Transcription

1 Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2013 Study on the Highway Bridge in the New Urban Area of Hai Phong, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam Final Report SUMMARY February 2014 Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Ernst & Young Shin Nihon LLC Japan External Trade Organization Prepared by: Chodai Co., Ltd. IHI Infrastructure Systems Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Corporation Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation

2 (1) Background and Necessity of the Project 1) Background of the Project The socialist Republic of Viet Nam (hereinafter referred to as Vietnam ) enacted the Doi Moi (Renovation Policy in 1986 and began obtaining its effects around After that, economic grouth in Vietnam continued as high as 9% for the years of 1995 and In 1997, however, tendencies such as slow-down of the growth rate surfaced and foreign direct investment abruptly decreased under the impact of the Asian economic crisis, thereby decreasing the growth of rate to 4.8% in In 2010, the growth rate recovered to 6.8%, the level before the crisis, because the governmental policies of economic stimulus and monetary easing (interest rate of 4%) worked well, which came into effect in However, due to monetary restraint by the Vietnamese government for inflation control, the growth rate slowed down to 5.9%. The economic growth rate of Vietnam in 2012 was 5.0%, which was below both the government s original goal of 6.0% and the downward-revised goal of 5.2%. On the other hand, the raise of consumer price index remained 9.2% in yearly average, lower than the government goal of 10.0%. Exchange rate against US dollars maintains 20,800 (VND (Vietnam Dong) / USD (US Dollar)). These infer that the macroeconomy of Vietnam remains stable. Trade balance turned to surplus after 19 years. Hai Phong city is the third largest city of Vietnam, located in the northern part of the country, approximately 100km away in the east side from Ha Noi. Hai Phong city is proceeding the urban development based on the Amendment of Haiphong Construction Master Plan to 2025 and Vision to 2050 (approved by the prime minister in September 2009). This master plan aims to develop Hai Phong city to be a modern industrial city based on science technologies, targeting to urbanize 90 ~ 95% of the city. Figure S1 Hai Phong City Master Plan North urban development area Nomura-Haiphong Ind. zone Development area Industrial area Government/ Public facility 3 rd ring road Cam river Existing city area Dinh Vu industrial parks 2 nd ring road Cat Bi airport Lach Huyen port Ha Noi Hai Phong Expressway k Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan 2) Necessity of the Project The master plan includes the followings:

3 Port development-demolition of existing Hai Phong port and its function relocation to Dimh Vu port and Lach Huyen port. Urban development development of urban area in the north of Cam river and relocation of administrative areas. Development of large industrial parks in Dinh Vu area and the north area of Cam river in addition to the existing Nomura-Haiphong Industrial Zone. Diversification of means of transport such as: Formulation of highway network such as Ha Noi Hai Phong Expressway, 2nd and 3rd ring roads Internationalization of Cat Bi airport and new construction of Tien Lang airport The Project intends to secure the linkage for the newly developed city area at the north of Hai Phong city among the existing city area and new city area including administrative district embracing approximately 200,000 of daytime population, securing access function ring roads and urban arterial highways with two of long span bridges such as Vu Yen bridge and Nguyen Trai bridge and additionally intends to aim for promotion of urban development and enticement/functional extension of industrial campus, for which Japanese firms would participate, based on access improvement for Lach Huyen port being constructed by Japan's ODA. Herein, further economic growth will be advanced, improving road traffic network of Hai Phong city in conjunction with precedent infrastructure development of ocean, sky and river. In case that the Project is not be implemented, because the existing urban arterial highways crossing Cam river between new and old city areas are only connected by Binh bridge constructed by Japan's ODA in 2005, cable-stayed bridge with 4 lanes, and Kien bridge constructed by Japan's yen loan in 2003, cable-stayed bridge with 2 lanes, the pre-feasibility study implemented by AECOM in 2013 reported that serious stagnation of urban function would be caused due to excess of allowable traffic volume of the existing bridges as of 2025 against increased vehicle volume resulted by development of new city area, north side industrial campus and new administrative district. The traffic jam caused by shortage of crossing-river bridges will affects the lives of Japanese and local workers in Japanese firms constituting majority of the new industrial campus, which may bring economic losses such as reduction of logistics and productivity. Therefore, adequate securement of commuting traffic network as well as urban arterial highway aiming for efficient logistics to Lach Huyen port is requisite development. Figure S2 Project location Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan

4 Photo-S1 shows the north development area model in VSIP office. The project location of Nguyen Trai bridge and Vu yen bridge is shown in Photo-S2, S3. The Construction condition of Ha Noi-Hai Phohg Expressway which the south approach of Vu Yen Bridge will be connected is shown in Photo-S4. Photo S1 North Development Area Model Photo S2 Project Location of Nguyen Trai Bridge Bridge Location Photo S3 Project Location of Vu Yen Bridge Photo S4 The Construction condition of Ha Noi-Hai Phohg Expressway Bridge Location (2) Basic Policy for determining the contents of the project 1) Scope of the Project The target two bridges are defined as important installations of the ring road plan of Hai Phong city and are located on the major route on the basis of the city development master plan "Amendment of Hai Phong Construction Master Plan to 2025 and Vision to 2050" approved by the government of Vietnam in For Vu Yen Bridge, DOT of Hai Phong City prepared a study report in 2012 and for Nguyen Trai Bridge AECOM, which is a Singaporean consultant, prepared a study report in In this report, The report by DOT of Hai Phong City is described as "Vu Yen Bridge Study Report" and the report by AECOM is described as "Nguyen Trai Bridge Study Report". The location of the bridges are located as follows: Vu Yen Bridge: Crossing Cam river in the overlap section of the second and third ring roads at Hai Phong city.

5 Cable-Stayed Bridge, Bridge length L=640m, Center Span 300m, Approach bridges L=785m+800m, total length 1,585m. Nguyen Trai Bridge: Directly connected among new and existing city area, administrative districts, north side industrial campus and Cat Bi airport. Cable-Stayed Bridge, Bridge length L=630m, Center Span 290m, Approach bridges L=240m x 2, total length 480m. The Project consists of the following elements: - Approach Road - Main Bridges (Cable-Stayed bridges) - Approach Bridge Because it was considered that the bridge site planned on Hai Phong development master plan was validid, the bridge site for Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge was the same as the master plan. The scope of the Project included in the city development master plan of Hai Phong City as a major route is proper scope from the point of view of constructability and existing condition with neighboring work sections. Figure S3 and S4 shows the project location respectively. Figure S3 Scope of the Project (Vu Yen Bridge) L=785m Total L=2,225m L=640m L=800m Figure S4 Scope of the Project (Nguyen Trai Bridge) Total L=1,110m L=240m L=630m L=240m

6 2) Outline of the Project a) Road Standard, Design Speed Road Standard: TCVN 4054: 2005 (Highway-Specifications for Design) Design Speed: V=100km/h b) Road Width Following cross sections connecting to bridges and approach roads are shown below: Figure S5 Location of Approach Roads and Standard Cross Sections (b) (d) (c) (a) Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan b)-1. Vu Yen Bridge Figure S6 South Side (a) Source: DOC Hai Phong Figure S7 North Side (b) Source: DOC Hai Phong

7 Figure S8 Bridge b)-2. Nguyen Trai Bridge Figure S9 South Side (c) Figure S10 North Side (d) Source: DOC Hai Phong Figure S11 Bridge 3) Basic Policy for determining the contents of the project a) Traffic Demand Forecasting The significant population growth is expected in Hai Phong city through an economic growth with Lach Huyen port construction and urban development in the Northern area of Cam River. Especially, forecast population in Thuy Nguyen district which is located in Northern area of Cam River is 251,000 in 2025 (about 240,000 increase from 16,000 in 2009). From the above, the chronic traffic congestion is predicted to occur in both existing bridges, Kien bridge and Binh bridge, and it interfere daily activities of local residents and distribution activities of companies.

8 In this study, traffic demand forecast was made to evaluate the necessity of Nguyen Trai bridge and Vu Yen bridge construction and the effect (included calculation for economic analysis). Urban development master plan approved by Hai Phong city in 2009 predicted traffic demand based on a traffic survey which is studied in 2004 and prepared future OD tables for 2020 and 2030 and future network. b) Natural Condition b)-1. Geographical and Geological Conditions Natural low-lying area by mangrove coast is distributed around geographical condition around the bridge location. For geological condition along Cam river, sensitive clay is accumulated until the depth of GL-30m. The ground base of such the low-lying area tends to effect geologically particularities such as Change of pure water pressure attended by transition of ground water, erosion effected by flowing water and ocean waves, softening by interfusion and immersion, Salinity eluviations/ accumulation and Shrinkage/ hardening by aridity. Therefore, the following items may be recommendable to be studied for technical examination for foundations on the neighboring ground base. - Settlement/ deformation due softening of ground stiffness - Reduction of bearing capacity due to decrease of effective stresses in fracture face b)-2. Earthquake For seismic design for structures, Vietnam Standards, SPECIFICATION BRIDGE DESIGN 22 TCN , is applied. As the horizontal seismic coefficient, Seismic Zone 3 is determined. Load factor design method is utilized in consideration of the coefficients corresponding to elastic wave velocity of the ground and damping characteristic designated by each structure. b)-3. Navigation Clearance Based on discussions with the Ports and Harbors Bureau, the following navigational clearances are required. With regard to the navigational clearance of Nguyen Trai bridge, official letter No. 1522/CVHHHP-PC dated November 29th 2013 (See Appendix-3), the major point of which is "Hoan Dieu Harbor located upstream of the bridge will be relocated downstream of the Cam River after 2025; however, careful attention should be paid in planning to the fact that existing harbors will be used by pleasure ships or foreign military vessels" was issued. Therefore, in the Project a navigational clearance of 25m will be applied to Nguyen Trai bridge. In addition, the result of study about the case that 45m of navigation clearance will be applied to Nguyen Trai Bridge is also shown.

9 Table S1 Navigational Clearances in the Project Bridge Vu Yen Br. Nguyen Trai Br. Target Vessel *1 20,000DWT 20,000DWT(5,000DWT) Clearance (H) * 2 Hmax5%(+1.75m)+ 45.0m Hmax5%(+1.14m)+45.0m( 25.0m) Width (B) 80m 80m *1: When the Preparatory Survey will be carried out, it is necessary to investigate the marine traffic conditions for use of port and delay of harbor transfer. HPPC suggests the possibility that the navigation clearance, H=30m-35m, will be adopted for the ship which is from 10,000DWT to 15,000 DWT. *2: The water levels at Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge apply to the water levels at Binh Bridge and Bach Dang Bridge *3, respectively. *3: Ha Long - Hai Phong road (Official name: The road to be connected between Ha Long and the Hanoi-Hai Phong highway), which is planned in Quang Ninh Province, is in approximately 25km length. Bach Danh bridge will be constructed on the highway. b)-4. Air space The air space of Vu Yen bridge basically has 45m due to the location where the horizontal surface of the Cat Bi airport is, however, the air space, 95m, will be adopted because Bach Danh bridge has been approved on the same limitations. And then, Nguyen Trai bridge does not significantly affect the bridge plan since the distance from the airport becomes 7,000 m or more. b)-5. Other Natural Conditions Data and information for other natural conditions, such as for climate/weather, river characteristics, wind velocity/direction, were collected during the site survey. This study considered the data and information. 4) Examination of Technical Approach a) Bridge Type and Span Arrangement a)-1. Selection of Main Bridge Type For the main bridge crossing Cam river, applicable bridge types are pointed as candidates, and then, the most appropriate type is selected among them.. The length of center span should be determined as more than 300m for Vu Yen bridge and 290m for Nguyen Trai bridge, considering navigation width of W=80m, scale of foundations and lateral clearance. The applicable bridge types can be pointed as following three types Case 1: Cable-Stayed Bridge Case 2: Arch Bridge Case 3: Self-Anchored Cable Suspension Bridge

10 The comparison study is shown in Table S2 and S3. As a result of the study, the cable-stayed bridge was selected as the most suitable type of bridge from the perspective of economic efficiency and maintainability. Vu Yen Bridge Study Report and Nguyen Trai Bridge Study Report are reviewed and selectable studies are carried out, the results that a concept design was carried out are shown in Table S6 and S7. Table S2 Comparison Study of Main Bridge(Vu Yen Bridge) Bridge Type Evaluation Type-1 Type-2 Type-3 Cost Efficiency 1.00 Superstructure 288,033JPY/m 2, Substructure 187,367JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency Steel-PC Composite Cable Stay bridge with Double-I-Shape Girder. Pylon and Slab (PC). The standard span length is from 130m to 450m, so that there is no problem structurally. Workability The cantilever method is adopted as a erection method. It is possible to minimize the inhibition of river traffic during the construction. Maintenance Long-term anticorrosive coating(flluorine series) are applied. In case of application of such the coating, painting life will be 20 to 30 years under partial repainting. The repainting can carried out using a inspection vehicle. (Recommendable Bridge Type) Cost Efficiency 1.20 Superstructure 573,840JPY/m 2, Substructure 335,446JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency Arch bridge has structural properties which is high rigidity and excellent cross-section efficiency. A tied arch type is selected in the long arch bridge as the horizontal force increases. Workability The large erection method is adopted as a erection method. The adjustment with river administrator is required. Maintenance Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The repainting needs a scaffolding to be installed to parts of arch, so that the traffic restriction is needed during the work. Cost Efficiency 1.35 Superstructure 548,306JPY/m 2, Substructure 217,027JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency It is the type to fix the cable at both ends of the girder without anchorage. Therefore, large compressive force is working to the girder. The standard span length is from 150m to 2000m, so that there is no problem structurally. Workability The girder needs a support during the construction, so that the effect on river traffic is high. Maintenance Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The repainting is required to apply inner surface because of the box girder.

11 Table S3 Comparison Study of Main Bridge(Nguyen Trai Bridge) Bridge Type Evaluation Type-1 Type-2 Type-3 Cost Efficiency 1.00 Superstructure 288,033JPY/m 2, Substructure 187,367JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency Steel-PC Composite Cable Stay bridge with Double-I-Shape Girder. Pylon and Slab (PC). The standard span length is from 130m to 450m, so that there is no problem structurally. Workability The cantilever method is adopted as a erection method. It is possible to minimize the inhibition of river traffic during the construction. Maintenance Long-term anticorrosive coating(flluorine series) are applied. In case of application of such the coating, painting life will be 20 to 30 years under partial repainting. The repainting can carried out using a inspection vehicle. (Recommendable Bridge Type) Cost Efficiency 1.20 Superstructure 573,840JPY/m 2, Substructure 335,446JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency Arch bridge has structural properties which is high rigidity and excellent cross-section efficiency. A tied arch type is selected in the long arch bridge as the horizontal force increases. Workability The large erection method is adopted as a erection method. The adjustment with river administrator is required. Maintenance Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The repainting needs a scaffolding to be installed to parts of arch, so that the traffic restriction is needed during the work. Cost Efficiency 1.35 Superstructure 548,306JPY/m 2, Substructure 217,027JPY/ m 2 Structural Efficiency It is the type to fix the cable at both ends of the girder without anchorage. Therefore, large compressive force is working to the girder. The standard span length is from 150m to 2000m, so that there is no problem structurally. Workability The girder needs a support during the construction, so that the effect on river traffic is high. Maintenance Same to Case-1, long-term anticorrosive coating is applied. The repainting is required to apply inner surface because of the box girder.

12 Figure S12 Vu Yen Bridge

13 Figure S13 Nguyen Trai Bridge

14 (3) Outline of the Project 1) Construction Cost A preliminary total project cost is shown in Table S4 and Table S5. The preliminary total project cost for Vu Yen Bridge is estimated approximately 23.6 billion yen (4 trillion billion Vietnam Dong), for Nguyen Trai Bridge is estimated approximately 19.2 billion yen (3 trillion billion Vietnam Dong), in case that 45m of navigation clearance for Nguyen Trai Bridge is estimated approximately 25.1 billion. Table S4 Preliminary Total Project Cost for Vu Yen Bridge Item JPY (Mill.) VND (Mill.) Equivalent JPY(Mill.) Equivalent VND(Mill.) Construction Cost 12, ,856 16,265 3,299,096 Consultant Fee 10% 1,248 76,786 1, ,910 Contingency 10% 1,248 76,786 1, ,910 Sub Total 14, ,427 19,518 3,958,915 Land Acquisition Administration Cost 5% - 164, ,955 Value Added Tax(VAT) 10% - 329,910 1, ,910 Import Tax 10% - 329,910 1, ,910 Sub Total - 824,774 4, ,774 Total 14,975 1,746,201 23,584 4,783,689 Table S5 Preliminary Total Project Cost for Nguyen Trai Bridge Item JPY (Mill.) VND (Mill.) Equivalent JPY(Mill.) Equivalent VND(Mill.) Construction Cost 9, ,203 11,872 2,407,947 Consultant Fee 10% ,220 1, ,795 Contingency 10% ,220 1, ,795 Sub Total for 25m 11, ,644 14,246 2,889,536 Sub Total for 45m (13,663) (1,117,852) (19,175) (3,889,295) Land Acquisition - 400,000 1, ,000 Administration Cost 5% - 120, ,397 Value Added Tax(VAT) 10% - 240,795 1, ,795 Import Tax 10% - 240,795 1, ,795 Sub Total - 1,001,987 4,940 1,001,987 Total for 25m 11,215 1,616,630 19,186 3,891,523 Total for 45m (13,663) (2,328,121) (25,141) (5,099,565)

15 2) Calculation of Ratio of Material, Equipment and Others of Japan Origin Table S6 shows the calculation of a ratio of material, equipment and others of Japan origin based on the guidelines prepared by relevant ministries of Japan. As shown in the table, the 30% condition for STEP scheme is satisfied. Table S6 Ratio of material, equipment and others of Japan origin Vu Yen Bridge Item Cost JPY (Mill) Remark Cost for Japanese Technology Material 1,171 Sub total estimated in Table 8-2 Steel Girder 4,061 Fabrication, Erection, Stay Cable (Materials and Installation Cost ) Wind tunnel test Steel Pipe 20 Contain test Model 2,848 SPSP and Screwed Pipe (Material and Installation Cost) Total (i) Total Project Cost (ii) Ratio 8,100 About 81 hundred-millions 16,265 About 163 hundred-millions 49.8% >30% 1/2 Nguyen Trai Bridge Item Cost JPY (Mill) Remark Cost for Japanese Technology Material 743 Sub total estimated in Table 8-2 Steel Girder 4,001 Fabrication, Erection, Stay Cable (Materials and Installation Cost ) Wind tunnel test Steel Pipe 20 Contain test Model 1,415 SPSP and Screwed Pipe (Material and Installation Cost) Total (i) Total Project Cost (ii) Ratio (H=25m) Ratio (H=45m) 6,179 About 62 hundred-millions 11,872 About 118 hundred-millions 52.0% >30% 1/2 47.5% >30% 3) Overview of Preliminary Economic/Finance Analysis a) Economic Analysis In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this project from the viewpoint of the national economy, a comparative analysis of economic cost and benefit both in the case of executing the project (With the project) and not executing the project (Without the project) is carried out. In the project, the object of analysis has two bridges which are Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge, so the comparative analysis is carried out on three scenarios as follows to evaluate the effectiveness of both projects. Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not As the evaluation indices, Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C) and Net Present Value (NPV) are applied.

16 The result being analyzed based on the benefit and the cost is shown in Table S7, S8, S9. When compared with social discount rate of Vietnam, this project is considered to be economically feasible. Table S7 Results of cost benefit analysis Case B/C Ratio N.P.V EIRR Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed million USD 17.9% Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not million USD 19.8% Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not million USD 25.4% In the elements assumed for the economic analysis, variable factors are included in each element and some elements are based on simple assumptions. As a sensitivity analysis, some margin will be given in accordance with such variable factors and by finding out how the result of the analysis will vary; the stability of the feasibility of this project will be confirmed. From the results of analysis shown in the table below, the value of EIRR exceeds 9.3% even in the case of 20% construction cost increase or 20% benefit decrease in either scenario, so the possibility of realization of this project is high. Case Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not b) Financial Analysis Table S8 Result of Sensitivity Analysis Construction Cost Benefit -20% 0% 20% 20% 24.3% 20.6% 17.9% -20% 17.9% 15.1% 13.1% 20% 26.7% 22.7% 19.8% -20% 19.8% 16.8% 14.6% 20% 34.1% 29.0% 25.4% -20% 25.4% 21.5% 18.8% The value of FIRR of this project is a positive value in either scenario, however, there is no financial feasibility of this project because it has less than 9.3%, which is long-term interest rate of Vietnam. On the other hand, the value of NPV is also becomes negative. It does not reach the level to promote private investment. Table S9 Result of sensitivity analysis Case B/C Ratio N.P.V FIRR Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed USD 3.0% Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not USD 6.6% Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not USD 3.8% Note:Benefit of the B/C ratio uses the assumed revenue

17 In the elements assumed for this analysis (Investment cost and revenue), unknown factors are included. Some margin will be added to each element corresponding to each unknown factor, the variation of the result of the analysis is observed and the financial stability of this project will be verified. From the table below, in all cases, it is found that the value of FIRR does not satisfy the long-term interest rate of Vietnam, 9.3%. If the project will be carried out based on the appropriate construction plan and management plan, it is hard to be feasibility in a financial standpoint. Case Both Nguyen Trai Bridge and Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed Only Nguyen Trai Bridge will be constructed and Vu Yen will be not Only Vu Yen Bridge will be constructed and Nguyen Trai will be not Table S10 Result of sensitivity analysis Revenue Construction cost -20% 0% 20% 20% 5.0% 3.9% 3.0% -20% 3.0% 2.0% 1.3% 20% 9.2% 7.7% 6.6% -20% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4% 20% 5.9% 4.7% 3.8% -20% 3.8% 2.8% 2.0% * In parentheses, in the case of 45m of navigation clearance for Nguyen Trai Bridge 4) Considerations on Natural and Social Environments This study is conducted in the earliest phase of the decision making process. The major objective of Environmental and social considerations in project formation studied is to provide data to determine whether the project should be taken to the next phase, and to clearly identify a broad range of items to be investigated in the next phase, if the project goes forward, from an environmental and social standpoint. Following shows the summary that the environmental reviews to identify major impacts on natural and social environments using the JICA check list in the screening form. In this project, it is expected that there is no impact on the natural environment such as air pollution, noise, water pollution, protected areas, etc. On the earth work at construction stage, it is expected that there is no effect on water pollution, noise and vibration by implementing the measures as necessary. However, impact is expected in some places for land acquisition before construction. The impact only occurs in the site of south side approach road of the Nyguen Trai Bridge. For the construction of the south side approach road of the Nyguen Trai Bridge (the road width: 50.5m), existing Nguyen Trai street will be planned to widen. Currently, there are many residents, stores, and offices along the street. Therefore, it need to follow proper regulations and rules when this project is conducted. On the Nguyen Trai street, The widening direction is not decided, and there are following 3 plans; a) Plan of expansion to the both sides of the Nguyen Trai street

18 b) Plan of expansion to the East side of the Nguyen Trai street c) Plan of expansion to the West side of the Nguyen Trai street The Ngo Quyen People s Committee push widening plan at west side of the Nguyen Trai street, which amount of compensation is the lowest. However, the consultation is required in the government in the future. Table S11 Total Acquired Area, Number of Affected Households, and Estimated Cost for compensation Plans Total acquired area(m 2 ) Organizations Area of Affected Households(m 2 ) Households Cose to the road Far from the road 3-floor collective housing Estimated Cost (VND) Both Side 13,500 4 (3,800) 110 (8,260) 15 (900) 36 (540) 400 billion East Side 14,600 2 (5,300) 85 (5,200) 75 (3,100) billion West Side 13,600 4 (6,300) 67 (3,900) 52 (2,900) 36 (500) billion According to the Decree No.29/2011/ND-CP, this project falls under Project No. 26: Projects to build road and rail bridges, and also requires that EIA be conducted during the F/S phase. In this project, the provincial-level People s Committee is in charge of EIA reports. The project operator submits EIA reports to DONRE for certification. (4) Implementation Schedule A tentative schedule from the present time to completion of the construction is shown in Table S12 As a result of the traffic demand forecasts, it will not keep up with the traffic demand if two bridges are not constructed until For this purpose, it is necessary to follow the implementation schedule such as the preparatory survey has in 2014, the government Exchange of Notes and the loan agreement has in 2015 and the construction will be started in Based on these, a detailed implementation schedule was made At the beginning, implementation method is discussed among relevant authorities in Vietnam. When the implementation by Japanese ODA is selected, GOV (Government of Vietnam) request to JICA Hanoi for the ODA application followed by bilateral discussion and investigation on the Project. In Table S8, it is assumed that preparatory survey is carried out because of the immature level of BRITEC Report. When both countries agreed, the L/A (Loan Agreement) is signed by the two countries based on the agreed TOR (Terms of Reference) of the ODA. A required period for the said process varies depending on the contents of a project. Based on the information of the past similar projects, the time of the L/A is assumed to be October After the L/A, works including selection of the consultant, the design phase and bidding for contractors are carried out. The period of the design phase is assumed to be 11 months including F/S review, B/D (Basic design) and D/D (Detailed Design). The commencement time of the construction is assumed to be August 2017.

19 The construction would require 44 months for Vu Yen bridge and 39 months for Nguyen Trai bridge based on the study resulted in the completion time of the end of March 2021 and October 2020 respectively. (5) Feasibility on ODA Request and Implementation The Project is currently planned by HPPC although it has been included in the master plan of Hai Phong. The first step for HPPC is to request the MOT for probability of ODA implementation. Funding by GOV is not likely because of the large project scale. Private sectors may be reluctant to invest on the Project because of the large scale and the low FIRR. In addition to these financial problems, the Project requires the state-of-the-art technology on the design and construction of a cable stayed bridge. The technology has not fully established in Vietnam. Because of these reasons, HPPC hope that Vu Yen Bridge and Nguyen Trai Bridge are constructed by Japanese ODA having high reputation on the quality and schedule management. Therefore, no serious obstacle are found for the ODA implementation. Many foreign countries, such as Finland, Germany and Korea, are investing on the port facilities and factories in nearby industrial parks. Under the situation, Japan is expected to provide advice and assistance for the implementation of the Project. This would be a good opportunity for Japan to impress people with its existence.

20 Table S12 Total Project Schedule (Plan) Financial Year in Japan Work Items Final Report Submission to 1 Counterpart (HPPC,DOT) Calender Year Month Project Study in 2 Vietnam GOV requests to 3 (HANOI) ODA Project Study 4 between Japan and Vietnam 5 E/N,L/A 6 Slection of Consultant 7 F/S Review, B/D, D/D 8 Approval for Design 9 Tender Procedure 10 Tender 11 Contract Construction Work Nguyen Trai Bridge Preparation & Temporary Work 12 Main Bridge Work Approach Bridge Work Road & Miscellaneous Work Construction Work Vu Yen Bridge Preparation & Temporary Work 13 Main Bridge Work Approach Bridge Work Road & Miscellaneous Work

21 (6) Technical advantages of Japanese Firms As stated foregoing, design and construction of a cable stayed bridge of which center span is 360m requires not only sophisticated knowledge but also high-developed equipment and materials. Japan has vast of overseas experiences and lead the state-of-the-art technology in this area. Moreover, the Japanese technologies and experiences for wind tunnel tests and wind-resistant stability design are also leading the edge of the world. Additionally, some other Japanese technologies, which are applicable to the Project, such as Vacuum Consolidation Method (VCM) for soft ground improvement, Screwed Steel Pile foundation and Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) are also quite unique and competitive technologies. Based on the above, it is quite apparent that Japanese firms have enough competitive power and a possibility of participation to the Project. As stated above, Japanese firms have sufficient competitiveness in terms of economic efficiency, quality control and resolution of technical difficulties, etc. Consequently, application of the technologies, which make the participation of Japanese firms who are familiar to the leading-edge technologies developed by Japan dominantly, is essential to this project. It is recommended to propose and exhibit above competitiveness of Japan working on the cutting edge of bridge engineering. This approach would also provide Japanese firms and technologies with good opportunities of orders. (7) Specific Schedule until L/A and Potential Risks for Implementation Table S13 shows a tentative schedule from the present time to L/A. No considerable risks are found in the schedule because the counterpart wish to complete the Project under STEP scheme of Japanese ODA. Many large scale road/bridge projects are simultaneously ongoing in Vietnam, in some of which the schedule is behind the original one. The main reason is the resettlement and land procurement. In this Project, however, almost no people are living in the area. Therefore, social problem could be solved relatively easily once compensation for fishery and shrimp farming is smoothly agreed. One little concern may be a possible delay of the process due to negotiation and administrative procedures among the two countries, which could be managed by close communication and cooperation. In Table S12, the time of L/A is assumed to be October A potential risk to decelerate the implementation schedule may be an internal factor of the two countries.

22 1 Final Report Submission Work Items Table S13 Total Project Schedule (Plan) Financial Year in Japan Calender Year Month Cumulative No Consultant 2 Final Report Submission to Counterpart (HPPC, DOT) 3 HPPC requests to GOV GOV 4 Consensus Formation in GOV GOV 5 GOV requests to (Hanoi) 6 Evaluation by (Hanoi) 7 (Hanoi) requests to (Headquater) 8 Evaluation by (Headquater) 9 Preparation for Preparatory Survey GOV 10 Selection of Consultant for Preparatory Survey 11 Implementation of Preparatory Survey 12 Evaluation of Preparatory Survey GOV 13 Jugement of ODA Implementation 14 Preparation of TOR Exchange of Notes (E/N) 15 Loan Agreement (L/A) GOV GOV 16 Selection of PMU GOV Preparation for Tender Documents 17 for Consultant Selection GOV 18 Selection of Consultant GOV Design Phase 19 (F/S Review, B/D, D/D) GOV Consultant

23 (8) Project Location Map Figure S14 shows the project location. Figure S14 the project location Hải Phòng Đà Nẵng 0 TP HCM Nguyen Trai Bridge Vu Yen Bridge Source: Hai Phong City Master Plan