Cement. Indian. Industry. Steel. Tyre. otel. Pesticide. The. oal. nking Express Service. Housing Finance. Renewable Energy Source.
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1 inum Banking Commercial Vehicle Cotton & Cotton Ya omponent Business Process Management (BPM) Construction Educat arel Chlor-Alkali CRAMS Crude Oil Gems & J Natural Gas Pesticides Power Generation Steel Pa anganese Ore Pharmaceutical Refining & Marketing Reta ight Transport Shipping Sugar Tractor Telecom Tower Wheeler S Tyre Tea-Cfee Telecom-W Energy Sources n Made Fibre Paper Pipe Roads & Highway Zinc & Lea Housing Finance Hospital Passenge Shipbuilding Renewable Energy Source Aluminum Cotton & Cotton Yarn Tracto oal otel nking Express Service Steel Two Wheeler Express Service ads Freight Transport Gems & Jewellery ed Passenger Vehicle CRAMS June 2013 Pesticide Cr Natural Gas
2 CARE Research expects the cement demand to recover gradually. increasing focus the Government India (GoI) on strengthening infrastructure, promotion low-cost affordable housing, lowering trend interest rates and expected revival in overall economic growth is expected provide some respite to the cement demand. CARE Research estimates the cement demand to grow at a CAGR about 7.9 per cent in the period FY consumption to see a gradual recovery Housing demand to drive the cement consumption real estate sector continues to dominate as the largest cement consuming sector in the country. Almost per cent the total cement demand is derived from the real estate sector. Over last couple years, the real estate market was confronted with slowdown. Going ahead, various measures taken by the government to promote affordable housing, falling trend interest rates and ongoing consideration to provide infrastructure status to the affordable housing segment are expected to drive growth housing demand. Over the period past two Five Year Plans, the investment in infrastructure as a percentage GDP has been on rise. Currently, almost 25 per cent the total cement consumption in the country is attributed to the infrastructure sector. Projects worth Rs. 18,000 bn are in pipeline under various sub-sectors the infrastructure sector. Over and above this some the key infrastructure projects such as Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor, Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor and Western Dedicated Freight Corridor are expected to drive growth for cement in the infrastructure space going ahead. demand from infrastructure space to catch pace pace capacity addition to decelerate Over the past few years, the cement industry has witnessed huge capacity addition. Consequently, the gap between the demand and supply has increased substantially. CARE Research believes that given the huge surplus situation prevailing in the industry, the pace capacity addition will decelerate going ahead. On account huge capacity addition, the utilisation rate the industry dropped from the peak 93 per cent in FY07 to 73 per cent in FY13. However, given the slowdown in pace capacity addition and gradual recovery in cement demand, CARE Research expects the overall operating rates will improve gradually Capacity utilisation to reach a level 76 per cent by the end FY16 prices to remain elevated in FY14, margins to remain under pressure Given the recovery expected in the demand, the cement prices are expected to remain elevated in FY14. CARE Research expects the average all India cement price to rise, however, margins are expected to remain under pressure owing to cost push.
3 Outlook on Overview Overall projected Demand-Supply situation Table Region-wise projected Demand-Supply situation demand drivers Capacity addition & Operating rate Regionwise projected cement prices in Fy14 Cost structure & Margins Valuation & Consolidation Section- I Care Research's Outlook Section- II Section industry continued to show a dismal performance in FY13 Slowdown in capacity addition led to marginal improvement in the utilisation rate in Fy13... Eventhough, demand remained subdued in FY13, cement prices witnessed an upward trend Holcim and Aditya Birla groups, taken together accounted for about 34 percent capacity in FY13 Demand-Supply Analysis Overall Demand Supply scenario Capacity Addition Region-wise Demand-Supply scenario Overall Inter-regional movement Detailed Regional Analysis North South West Cost Analysis East Central Cost structure the industry Power & Fuel Cost Freight Cost Raw Material (RM) Cost Market competition & averages averages Market share major players Company Priles ACC Ltd. Ambuja s Ltd. India s Ltd. Shree s Ltd. UltraTech Ltd. SECTION- III Company Section
4 Table Basics Types Manufacturing Process Characteristics SECTION- IV Anexures Key Statistics - Financial Performance Key Statistics - Operational Performance Outlook List Tables SECTION - I CARE Research's Outlook SECTION - Ii Section Overview Status Top 10 players (capacity-wise) Capacity addition by small & medium players Demand-Supply Analysis Overall demand-supply scenario Trend cement exports and imports importing countries exporting countries Overall Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 All India inbound and outbound cement movement in FY13 North- Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 South-Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 West-Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 East-Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 Central-Inter-regional cement movement in FY13 Cost Analysis cost breakup in FY13 State wise power tariff Cost comparison grid & captive power Per tonne freight cost in FY13 India's limestone position Market Competition & Averages Trends in averages ACC Ltd. SECTION III Company Section
5 Financial & Pritability Ratios Ambuja Ltd. Financial & Pritability Ratios India s Ltd. Financial & Pritability Ratios UltraTech s Ltd. Financial & Pritability Ratios Shree s Ltd. Financial & Pritability Ratios Table Basics Per capita consumption Duty structure SECTION IV Annexures Key Statistics Financial Performance Net Sales Operating Prit Net Prit Operating Prit Margin Net Prit Margin Interest Coverage ratio Key Statistics Operational Performance State-wise trend in cement production Region-wise cement consumption Inter regional cement movement in FY13 Company-wise installed capacity Company-wise production Company-wise dispatches Excise Duty Domestic cement prices
6 Outlook Overview Table List Graphs SECTION - I CARE Research's Outlook Trends YoY growth GDP and cement consumption Planned investment in 12th Five Year Plan Expected demand from different projects in pipe line across various sub-sectors Projected regionwise capacity addition Projected capacity utilization trend Projected demand-supply scenario - Western Region Projected demand-supply scenario - Eastern Region Projected demand-supply scenario - Northern Region Projected demand-supply scenario - Central Region Projected demand-supply scenario - Southern Region Regionwise price trend Trend international coal prices Trend diesel prices Projected Power & Fuel and Freight cost Trend realization Trend in PBDIT Margin Break-even cushion Trend Break even capacity for industry and new plant Trend cement consumption Trend on Capacity, Production & Capacity Utilization Region-wise yearly average cement price trend Region-wise monthly price trend SECTION - II Section Demand-Supply Analysis Trend capacity addition Region-wise capacity utilization rate Regional statistics (Fy13) Regional scenario in Fy13 Trend production & consumption in the North region North - Position top players at the end FY 13 (based on capacity) Yearly average price trend - Delhi Monthly price trend- Delhi Trend production and consumption in the South region South - Position top players at the end FY 13 (based on capacity) Yearly average price trend - Chennai Monthly price trend- Chennai Trend production & consumption in the West region West - Position top players at the end FY 13 (based on capacity) Yearly average price trend Mumbai Monthly price trend- Mumbai
7 Table Trend production & consumption in the East region East - Position top players at the end FY 13 (based on capacity) Yearly average price trend Kolkata Monthly price trend- Kolkata Trend production & consumption in the Central region Central - Position top players at the end FY 13 (based on capacity) Cost Analysis Power cost per unit ( Average) Trend cement dispatch mode mix Distribution proven limestone reserves Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Gypsum in India Market Competition & Averages Trend industry averages Market share Major players (Fy13) Market share major players (FY06 v/s Fy12) Basics Types cement manufacturing process ACC Ltd. Cost Break-up (CY12) SECTION III Company Section Ambuja Ltd. Cost Break-up (CY12) India s Ltd. Cost Break-up (FY12) UltraTech s Ltd. Cost Break-up (FY12) Shree s Ltd. Cost Break-up (FY12)
8 Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. (CARE), promoted in 1993 by some the leading banks and financial institutions including Industrial Development Bank India (IDBI), Canara Bank and others is amongst the premier credit rating agencies in India and provides credit rating, research and information services. CARE Ratings is well equipped to rate all types debt instruments including Commercial Papers, Fixed Deposits, Bonds, Debentures, Hybrid Instruments, Preference Shares, Loans, Structured Obligations, Asset Backed Securities, Residential Mortgage Backed Securities etc. CARE's rating methodologies are in line with the best international practices. CARE Research & Information Services (CARE Research)is an independent division CARE. CARE Research services a variety business research needs with credible, high-quality research and analysis on various facets the Economy and Industries. Publications include Reports, Debt Market Review, Budget Analysis and other policy impact analysis and special commentaries on topical issues.care Research fers both subscription-based reports as also customized reports on request. reports by CARE Research provide insightful data and analysis on various industry sectors and CARE's outlook on the same. one-year subscription to the report on ' ' by CARE Research includes access to monthly updates from the date subscription. To view list industries under our coverage you can visit For any queries regarding the content & scope the report kindly reach us at careresearch@careratings.com To place an order, please contact: Manish Sukhija Business Development - CARE Research Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. 503, Kaledonia, Sahar Road, Off Western Express Highway, Andheri (E), Mumbai Cell: , Tel.: (Direct), (Board) CORPORATE OFFICE MUMBAI Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. 4th Floor, Godrej Coliseum, Somaiya Hospital Road, Off Eastern Express Highway, Sion (East), Mumbai Tel: , Fax: , care@careratings.com 503, Kaledonia, Sahar Road, Off Western Express Highway, Andheri (E), Mumbai Tel.: REGIONAL OFFICES AHMEDABAD 32, Titanium, Prahaladnagar Corporate Road, Satellite, Ahmedabad Tel: Fax: BENGALURU Unit No , 11th Floor, Prestige Meridian II, No.30, M. G. Road, Bangalore Tel: , Telefax: CHANDIGARH 2nd Floor, S.C.O , Sector 34-A, Chandigarh CHENNAI Unit No. O-509/C, Spencer Plaza, 5th Floor, No. 769, Anna Salai, Chennai Tel : / Fax: HYDERABAD 401, Ashoka Scintilla, , Himayat Nagar, Hyderabad Tel: Fax: JAIPUR 304, Pashupati Akshat Heights, Plot No. D-91, Madho Singh Road,Near Collectorate Circle, Bani Park, Jaipur Tel: / 14 KOLKATA 3rd Floor, Prasad Chambers, (Shagun Mall Building), 10A, Shakespeare Sarani, Kolkata Tel: / 02 Fax: NEW DELHI 3rd Floor, B-47, Inner Circle, Near Plaza Cinema, Connaught Place, New Delhi Tel: / / Fax: PUNE 9th Floor, Pride Kumar Senate, Plot No. 970, Bhamburda, Senapati Bapat Road, Shivaji Nagar, Pune Tel: MALDIVES 4th Floor, CHAMPA Center Point, Chandhanee Magu, Male' Republic Maldives. Tel: / Mobile: / Fax:
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