The EU forestry wood chain in a globalised world

Transcription

1 The EU forestry wood chain in a globalised world Eric Arets, Alexander Moiseyev, Bastiaan Louman, Markku Kanninen, Jean-Marc Roda, Jean Noël Marien, Birger Solberg, Maarit Kallio, Elke Stehfest & Mark van Oorschot

2 The EU wood chain in a globalised world Trade and policy factors potentially affecting sustainability of wood chains between the EU and developing countries Increasing population and demand for wood and agricultural products and declining resource availability Increasing wood demand from competing markets (e.g. China and India) Climate change mitigation policies (bio-fuel, REDD) Illegal logging / FLEGT Stricter timber procurement in EU countries (demand for forest certification) Increasing private requests for certified timber

3 Example: Certification Potential effects of certification on biodiversity and carbon in selected developing countries Stricter public timber procurement (i.e. UK, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, France, Belgium) Increasing demand from private sector (e.g. Netherlands Timber Trade Association)

4 Certification Scenarios elaborated using EFI-GTM and the IMAGE-GLOBIO modelling framework EFI-GTM: Global Forest Sector Model Future demand for wood based products IMAGE-GLOBIO: Global integrated assessment models (Applied in IPCC; MEA; GBO2; OECD EO) Forest growth, carbon and biodiversity Evaluated: MSA, indicator for intactness of original biodiversity and C losses

5 primary forest selective logging secondary forest agroforestry plantations cropland pasture Certification mean species abundance Biodiversity indicator: MSA Primary forest 100% MSA Selective logging 1,2 1 0, (0.85) (0.35) Secondary vegetation 50% 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Plantation Degraded 0%

6 Reference futures Based on the IPCC SRES A1 and B2 reference futures to account for uncertainty A1 Rapid economic growth Rapid population growth Rapid technological innovation B2 Moderate economic growth Moderate population growth Slow technological innovation

7 Scenarios Current Based on current level of certification Potential annual production from certification remains the same Target 100% of wood from plantations exported to EU is certified 50% of wood from (semi-) natural forests exported to EU is certified

8 Scenario assumptions Round wood, sawn wood and panels are from (semi-) natural forests Pulpwood and paper are from plantation forests Certified natural forests are logged according Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) Certified plantations are only established on abandoned land (checked afterwards)

9 Importance of tropical regions Import of wood & wood based products into the EU (m 3 r.w.e.) (2005 data adapted from the EFI/WFSE Forest Products Trade Flow Database) 5.3% 1.7% 2.3% Map: PBL, 2008

10 1000 m RWE 1000 m RWE Increasing demand for certified wood A1 - Increasing demand for certified wood from tropical regions B2 - Increasing demand for certified wood from tropical regions 80,000 80,000 Natural - rest Natural - rest 70,000 Natural - certified 70,000 Natural - certified Plantations Plantations 60,000 60,000 50,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10, Year Current potential tropical plantations: ± 116 million m 3 yr -1 (8.6 M ha) Current potential tropical natural forests: ± 10 million m 3 yr -1 (13.5 M ha) 0 Year

11 Area of natural forest (km 2 ) Additional area certified when meeting target Natural forest 25,000 Cumulative additional area of natural forest to be certified 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 B2 A1 Regional differences cumulative in 2025 A1 B2 Rest South America 3,928 3,512 Northern Africa 1,155 1,172 Western Africa 7,635 9,876 Eastern Africa 1,728 1,948 India + 3,766 3,393 China Year Regions that currently already could meet the target: Mexico, Rest Central America, Brazil, South East Asia and Indonesia

12 Area of natural forest (km 2 ) Additional area certified when meeting target Plantation forest 70,000 Cumulative additional area of plantation forest to be certified B2 60,000 50,000 A1 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year Regional differences cumulative A1 B2 Mexico Rest Central America 16,556 22,703 Northern Africa 1,883 1,909 Western Africa 16,330 19,555 Eastern Africa 3,317 3,633 India + 7,959 7,213 Indonesia + 3,390 2,804

13 MSA * area (km 2 ) Cumulative reduction in biodiversity loss in natural forest ( MSA * area) 10,000 Cumulative reduction in MSA loss in natural forests 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 B2 A1 1, Year

14 MSA * area (km 2 ) Cumulative reduction in biodiversity loss in natural forest ( MSA * area) 10,000 Cumulative reduction in MSA loss in plantation forests 9,000 8,000 B2 A1 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Year

15 million t C Cumulative reduction in carbon loss 14 Cumulative reduction in carbon loss in natural forests B2 A Year

16 Discussion Global assessment based on average values for the various regions. In reality there are however differences between plantations and forest types and management types! We didn t consider specific conservation and management guidelines already in place in different countries/regions.

17 Discussion Only total amount of certified wood considered, but in reality also (mis)-matching demand and supply of different assortments and products are important obstacles Secondary effects of increasing demand for certified wood products from the EU Also demand in other regions increases Local institutional context improves to facilitate companies access to certification Management in non-certified companies improves as a result of increasing capacity

18 Extension of assessment Further integration IMAGE <> EFI-GTM Include potentially growing demand for certified wood from other regions Assessing the impact of extensification of wood production in EU on forests in other regions Include climate change effects on productivity and trade in reference futures Monitoring of effects of certification on biodiversity!

19 Thank you for your attention Eric Arets: Alexander Moiseyev: Bastiaan Louman: Markku Kanninen: Jean-Marc Roda Jean Noël Marien: Birger Solberg: Maarit Kallio: Elke Stehfest: Mark van Oorschot: Alterra, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands European Forest Institute (EFI), Finland CATIE, Costa Rica CIFOR, Indonesia CIRAD / FRIM, Malaysia CIRAD, Dem. Rep. Congo / France Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB), Norway Finnish Forest Research Institute, Finland Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Wageningen UR