Social Dynamics in Wildfire Risk Mitigation

Transcription

1 SALT LAKE CITY UTAH NOVEMBER 2013 Social Dynamics in Wildfire Risk Mitigation António Patrão Institute for Interdisciplinary Research, University of Coimbra (IIIUC), Portugal Phd Student in Territory, Risk and Public Policies

2 Wildfires are already one of the main constraints of the portuguese forest sector

3 EXTREME WILDFIRE EVENTS are we prepared? WUI discussion

4 EXTREME WILDFIRE EVENTS are we prepared? WUI discussion

5 CITY OF COIMBRA (CENTRAL PORTUGAL) WUI AFFECTED BY 2005 WILDFIRE

6 WILDFIRES ( ac) 2003 * 20 people lost their lives * ac burnt (8% of the forest land) * 12 of the 20 biggest fires ever recorded * mostly in central and southern regions 2004 * large fires in southern region * ac burnt (8% of the forest land) * 3 fires larger than ac 2005 * 14 people lost their lives * ac burnt 2003 * large fires in northern region 2004 * 8 fires larger than ac 2005

7 How to change the behaviors of private property owners regarding risk mitigation measures that involve actions in private property? This presentation aims to analyse some aspects of the social dynamics connected to the implementation of wildfire risk mitigation plan, namely the public attitudes toward wildfire risk mitigation measures encompassed in the Wildfire National Program.

8 Google Earth PORTUGAL Mainland Azores Is. Land use Surface (10 3 ha) Forests % Shrublands % Agricultural area % Inland water 184 2% Other land uses 630 7% Madeira Is. Savage Is.

9 THE PORTUGUESE FOREST Main figures (Mainland) Forests Shrublands Barren vegetation Inland waters 35% 28% 2% 2% Forests : 3,15 million hectares Shrublands: 2,18 million hectares

10 THE PORTUGUESE FOREST Main types of forest - Mainland Eucalyptus (Tasmania blue gum) Maritime pine Cork oak Holm oak Stone pine Sweet chestnut Pyrenean oak Other coniferous (eg. douglas Cork fir) oak Pedunculate oak

11 THE PORTUGUESE FOREST Main figures (Mainland) Portugal EU-27 Spain France UE-27 Italy Greece 46% of the EU-27 forest area 53% of the worl forest area Ireland Germany Romania Poland Finland Sweden Norway China USA Canada Brazil Russia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Public Private and other Source: FAO FRA 2010

12 THE PORTUGUESE FOREST Plantations, monoculture, dimension property poor land registration P1 P6 P2 P5 < 0.5ha P3 P4

13 1 BACKGROUND Population density Wildfires

14 1 - BACKGROUND wildfire ignitions / year - 95% are human related

15 1 - BACKGROUND Following the environmental, economic and social impacts of the 2003 extreme wildfires in Portugal, national agencies developed a systematic plan aimed at increase the resilience of the Portuguese territory to forest fires.

16 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined WILDFIRE NATIONAL PROGRAM approved. All municipalities have a Wildfire defence program. Challenge: to create fire planning

17 fire watch tower logistics zone regional fuelbreak network (125 m wide, min.) forest road dominant wind water pond water reservoir shaded fuelbreak fuel management areas special fire watch road regional fuelbreak network (agriculture land) Model for the regional forest defence network

18 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined Challenge: integrated land use planning agricultural fuelbreak dominant winds dominant winds shaded fuelbreak wildland urban interface, with silvo-pastoralism strategic fuel management FAO (2001)

19 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined Strategic fuel management Effect of fuel management in fire intensity and potential damage, in a Natura 2000 site (Serra do Caldeirão fire, Algarve, July 2004) Challenge: to create fire-smart landscapes Photograph by Pedro Jesus - APFSC

20 1 - BACKGROUND prescribed fire Strategic goald were defined Challenge: reinforce prescribed fire programs Photograph by Adriano Germano - Fireparadox

21 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined Regional fuelbreak network ( >125 m wide)

22 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined Challenge: new fuel management techniques strategic fuel management Regional fuelbreak network Fuel management through pasturing São Bartolomeu de Messines, Algarve

23 1 - BACKGROUND Strategic goald were defined strategic fuel management New legislation Decret-Law 124/2006 Forces: 50m --- isolated houses 100m sub-urban, villages industrial infraestrutures

24 One universal message.

25 Reinforcement of combat and surveillance systems

26

27 1 - BACKGROUND BUT

28 1 - BACKGROUND Forest fires Avoiding the (bureaucratic) cycle of forest fires? In 10 years 5 different ministers 10 diferent secretaries. Analysis of the commission for forest fires report Creation of the commission for forest fires prevention Report from the commission for forest fires prevention Reunions of the commission for forest fires preventions (First Portuguese governmental commission on forest fires: 1962)

29 1 - BACKGROUND BUT

30 1 - BACKGROUND Extreme wildfires 13 people died (8 firefighters) Tavira wildfire, 2012 (~25 000ha)

31 1 - BACKGROUND BUT

32 Are people being engaged?

33 2 Local Study (Viegas,D.X., 2010) WUI Wildfire Risk in Coimbra Central Portugal

34 2 Local Study District of Coimbra Very frequent small villages surounded by forest

35 2 Local Study Small village named Piódão

36 2 Local Study Piódão Extreme Wildfire, 2005

37 2 - OBJECTIVES Examine attitudes and personal perspectives about wildfire mitigation measures: Characterize perception of wildfire risk; Assess the levels of knowledge and compliance with the measures; Identify obstacles and strengths towards plan effectiveness. Design more effective strategies to community engagement in wildfire mitigation.

38 2 - METHODS Sample 20 participants (10 M, 10 F); ages between 24 and 77 years old (mean age = 46,35 years old), years of school attendance (0 to 12); all local residents; 75% are owners of their houses; 75% urban land; 60% forestry land; 70% experienced one or more wildfires. Instruments Questionnaire [Socio-demographic data; perception of wildfire risk; response to wildfire; attitudes towards prevention and wildfire risk mitigation measures; personal comments about the questionnaire]. Data Analysis Descriptive statistics; content analysis

39 2 - RESULTS Attitudes and personal perspectives about wildfire mitigation Perception of wildfire risk Participants tend to consider that the probability of occurrence of wildfire is average to high in the property of others (neighbors) (60%) and in the village (50%), but not in their property Knowledge about mitigation measures Majority of participants has received information about preventive behaviors, through media (70%) or pamphlets (50%) but information on evacuation and immediate response is low (10%); 50% considers that diary information about wildfire risk is useful.

40 2 - RESULTS Attitudes and personal dispositions towards wildfire mitigation Compliance with the mitigation measures Fuel reduction around the houses (65%) and in land properties (50%) and remove flammable products near property (40%) are the most popular measures; People consider that have already taken sufficient mitigation measures but are willing to accept others, namely plantation with species resistant to wildfire (30%); Fuel reduction techniques like prescribed fire (60%) and cattle breeding (70%) are well accepted.

41 2 - RESULTS Attitudes and personal dispositions towards wildfire mitigation Perception of measures effectiveness 45% consider that the intervention of forestry engineers and other forestry technicians contributes to reduce wildfire risk; Measures perceived as more effective are: diary disclosure of wildfire risk (70%); creation of forestry brigades (65%); prohibition of campfires during summer (60%) and fuel reduction (55%); structural measures like forestry planning are less valued (10%); Reinforcement of emergency services (70%), reforestation (70%) and protection of private property (50%) are the most significant intervention measures to participants.

42 2 - RESULTS Attitudes and personal dispositions towards wildfire mitigation Responsibility attribution Participants attribute responsibilities on wildfire prevention most to property owners (75%) but also emphasize the responsibility of the national forestry services (60%) and national civil protection services (50%).

43 3 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Obstacles (to overcome) Low level of knowledge about structural measures (national, district and local level); Negative perception and low expectations of the practical implementation of the program regulations; Sense of distrust and disconnection between people (communities) and wildfire entities/working teams; Potential for conflict between communities and national agencies/services. Nor always agreement means passing to practice: it seems to exist a gap between rhetoric and people/community engagement.

44 3 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Strengths (that should be acknowledge) Positive tendency of public awareness and compliance with the program: people are informed about and accept the plan recommendations/actions; Desire for more information, especially through media and public discussion (interests in the subject); Positive representations of the work of forestry technicians and forest brigades (can be used as privileged mediators within communities). The potential for change exists.

45 3 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS This study used a small sample in a specific context. Future research is needed to: Analyze the influences of sociodemografic contexts, namely variations with gender, socio-economic status, income, educational level, and residency (rural, urban, peri-urban) and generational cohorts; Study process within communities, namely using the framework of community-based participatory research.

46 7 FUTURE STUDIES Central Portugal Network of 27 villages shale

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48 Tradition an Culture

49 THANK YOU.

50 THANK YOU. FAJÃO 2013