RAPID URBANIZATION POSTMODERN URBANIZATION AND THE VULNERABILITY OF THE POOR TO NATURAL DISASTERS POSTMODERN URBANIZATION URBAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS

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1 Third Urban Research Symposium: Land Development, Urban Policy and Poverty Reduction The World Bank and Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) April 4-6, 2005 Brasilia, Brazil POSTMODERN URBANIZATION THE VULNERABILITY OF THE POOR TO NATURAL DISASTERS JELENA PANTELIC * Senior Operations Officer, SECPS,The World Bank, Washington, DC BOGDAN SRDANOVIC Vice-President, Spring International Consulting Group, Bethesda, MD MARJORIE GREENE Program Manager, Learning from Earthquakes, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA Influence of postmodern urbanization, fragmentation and polarization of urban physical and social fabric on urban residents, especially the poor * POSTMODERN URBANIZATION Its impacts on cities in developing countries * AGENTS OF VULNERABILITY * Exposure Factor * Susceptibility Factor * Environmental Factor * CONCLUSIONS 1 2 POSTMODERN URBANIZATION URBAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS City regions Desakota Edge cities (Scott et al. 2002) (McGee 1991) (Garreau 1991) Developing countries Urbanization with high concentration of advanced economic activity (Geyer 2002) Lagging countries Urbanization dependent on massive migration of the rural poor World cities (Hall 1966) Also called urbanization without growth (Davis 2004) 3 4 RAPID URBANIZATION Polarization Social segmentation and Spatial segregation between THE RICH THE POOR (Scott et al. 2002) fragmentation enforces separation and expresses not simple differences but irreconcilable inequalities (Caldeira 1996:65) The poor occupy shantytowns and slums The affluent minority lives in sanitized residential communities, surrounded by fences and frequently protected by armed guards 5 6 1

2 Today, more than 50 percent of global population lives in cities 78 percent of urban population of least developed countries live in slums (WB 2005) At least 50 percent of global slum population is under the age of percent of developing countries urban residents occupy property illegally (Davis 2004) World s highest percentages of slum dwellers: AFRICA Ethiopia 95% Chad 95% ASIA Afghanistan 98.5% Nepal 92% 7 8 RECENT DISASTER TRENDS * Annual GDP losses: 2 to 15% VULNERABILITY TO DISASTER * Seven times more lives lost in 2003 than in 2002 (Munich Re, 2004) * Between 1960s and 1990s global catastrophes increased five-fold and damage grew by the factor of 9 (Munich Re, 1999) 9 * Ability to prepare, respond, cope and recover * Has distinct spatial, social and economic dimensions * Factors that define vulnerability act in conjunction with each other 10 AGENTS OF VULNERABILITY * Exposure Factor * Susceptibility Factor * Environmental Factor (Charveriat 2001) EXPOSURE FACTOR * Traditionally, the primary measure of disaster vulnerability * Arguably, all social strata equally at the mercy of disasters * Most frequently, slums and its inhabitants located on hazardous and unbuildable terrains steep hills, river banks, flood plains

3 LOCATIONAL CHOICES? * More than 50 percent of Mumbai s 16 million residents live in slums * Many street dwellers own or rent sleeping quarters * Monsoon rain drainage canals dozens killed every year Unprecedented growth of slums * Metropolitan areas of large cities * Secondary cities Population of Rio s favelas almost doubled in last 20 years while city growth slowed down (Perlman 2003) Floods in Bangladesh, 1998 Urban Dhaka and its illegal slums Dhaka 1998 floods Environmental refugees escape to already overcrowded cities, compounding poverty and exposure to disasters Boumerdes, Algeria, 2003 SUSCEPTIBILITY FACTOR A MEASURE OF PEOPLE S ADAPTABILITY TO KNOWN RISKS * Quality of construction * Residents awareness to risks * Emergency planning

4 Poor quality of construction, lack of enforcement of building codes led to a disaster in the Marmara earthquake, 1999 Lack of maintenance in overcrowded regional cities, such as Bhuj, Gujarat (India) led to devastation in * 97 percent of all disaster-related deaths in 2001 occurred in developing countries Disasters disproportionately affect the poor * As a percentage of GNP, disaster losses 20 percent higher in developing than in industrialized countries (Anderson 2000) * Disasters cause loss of development gains in developing countries 21 * Average asset losses 18 percent higher among the poorest fifth of Honduran households affected by Hurricane Mitch, vs. 3 percent among the richest quintile (Fay 2003) 22 * Risk averse vs. risk taking * Slums of Santo Domingo (Pantoja 2002) Wooden shacks near the flood-prone river Houses of durable material on higher ground Rents for latter almost twice the amount of those near river (Fay 2003) 23 ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IN URBAN AREAS * Conversion of agricultural land to built environment * Deforestation of dangerous slopes * Destruction of protective mangrove belts Etc. 24 4

5 Andhra Pradesh, India Deforestation of coastal woodland opens path for cyclone destruction TSUNAMI, 2004 * INDIA Examples of damage TSUNAMI, 2004 TSUNAMI, 2004 * Sumatra * INDIA CONCLUSIONS * Largest, greatest cities in human history * Tremendous cost in poverty, social polarization, spatial segregation, environmental degradation * Serious breakdown in urban management * Need to reassess direction of urban development create policies / programs to address vulnerability crisis