Using the tree-growth model MOSES to assess the impact of uneven-aged forest management
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1 Institute of Silviculture University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Using the tree-growth model MOSES to assess the impact of uneven-aged forest management Christopher Thurnher Clemens Spörk Hubert Hasenauer
2 Introduction To ensure sustainable management, a combination of monitoring and models to predict the stand development are needed Classical models: yield tables Designed for even-aged, monospecious forests For uneven-aged mixed forests, single-tree models are an appropriate tool e.g. MOSES (Modelling Stand response)
3 MOSES MOSES (Modelling Stand response) is a single tree-growth simulator Developed to simulate uneven-aged mixed forests Distance dependent Growth model (height, diameter) Mortality model Regeneration model Possibility to simulate different management regimes in uneven-aged mixed species forests
4 Data of the forest company Ligist Mixed species forest (spruce 78%, larch 6%, fir 5%, pine 5%, beech 4 %, oak 1%, other 1%) 4 districts ha Since ~ 1950: continuous change from even-aged to uneven-aged management 1980: permanent forest inventory design (Angle Count Sampling) was established Remeasurement in 1985, 1990, 2000, 2010 (ongoing)
5 Data of the forest company Ligist
6 Objectives Mission: Application of the tree-growth simulator MOSES Working steps: Initialization and validation of MOSES with the available dataset Definition of a Plenter harvesting model Simulation of the stand development for 50 years according to the business as usual
7 Validation of MOSES Angle count sampling data from the forest management company Ligist Measurements 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000 Generation of one plot (1 ha) for each sample point Tree coordinates are generated with STANDGEN DBH is derived from the inventory data Height is calculated by height curves
8 Validation of MOSES Dataset was simulated with MOSES Removals according to the inventory data Comparing predicted vs. observed DBH
9 Harvesting model MOSES is able to simulate different management regimes (clearcut, thinning from above ) Plenter management is more sophisticated Modelling the business as usual Simulating the present Plenter management regime in the future (50 years)
10 Harvesting model - model I Harvesting model developed using the Ligist dataset ( ) Consists of two logistic models: Model I determines the probability of harvesting a plot p harvest = 1+ e 1 a+ b* DG+ c* CCF + d* CCF 2 DG: quadratic mean diameter CCF: crown competition factor a d: coefficients
11 Harvesting model model II Model II determines the probability of removing a tree on a harvested plot p remove = 1+ e a+ b* DBH + c* DBH DBH: DBH of the tree CCFL: crown competition factor of larger trees t 1 t 5 : dummy variables for the tree species a i: coefficients 2 + d* CCFL+ e* t Calculated probability is compared to a uniformly distributed random number between 0 and 1 If the random number is smaller than the probability, the model is applied, i.e. the plot is harvested or the tree is removed respectively f * t 2 + g* t 3 + h* t 4 + i* t 5
12 Model II Probability of a tree to be removed according to its DBH and species
13 Simulation MOSES simulation from 1980 to 2000 Plenter harvesting model was applied each period Comparison of predicted vs. observed removal by DBH class
14 Simulation MOSES simulation from 1980 to 2000 Plenter harvesting model was applied each period Comparison of predicted vs. observed remaining stem number [N/ha] by DBH class
15 Simulation until 2030
16 Simulation until 2030
17 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 5
18 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 5
19 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 5
20 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 2
21 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 2
22 Simulation until 2030 Age Class 2
23 Summary MOSES is appropriate to compute an unbiased simulation result (validation) Harvesting model is needed to simulate the business as usual Model I: probability of harvesting a plot Model II: probability of removing a tree Transition time from typical even- to uneven-aged stand structure depends on the age class of the even-aged forest
24
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