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6 Office of Economic Development Overview Economic Development Committee October 3, 2011 Office of Economic Development

7 Purpose Confirm overarching goals of economic development Review OED s organizational structure and implementation tools Assess results Discuss going forward opportunities and focus Initiate a dialogue concerning goals and performance measurements 2

8 Economic Development is an Established City Council Priority Council names economic development the #1 priority in January 2004 Strategic advice from McKinsey & Company and private sector stakeholder group Current initiatives framed by two councilapproved documents: Strategic Engagement, a forward-looking economic development plan (September 2005) and forwarddallas!, a comprehensive land use plan (June 2006) Subsequent mayors and councils have reaffirmed the city s commitment 3

9 Overarching Goals Grow the economy Increase economic opportunities for residents Increase and broaden the tax base Stimulate the growth of more sustainable communities 4

10 How OED Is Organized 48 staff positions in FY 2012 FY 2012 operating budget of $4.2 M Supervised by Karl Zavitkovsky, director Key units/executives: Business Development / Hammond Perot, A.D. Small Business / Lee McKinney, A.D. Finance, Administration and Government Compliance / Jiroko Rosales, A.D. Area Redevelopment / Karl Stundins, manager Research and Information / Daniel Oney, manager Dallas Film Commission / Janis Burklund, manager 5

11 OED Is Increasingly Funded by Non- Millions General Fund Revenue Sources OED s budget now relies less on the General Fund and more on other funding, such as TIF reimbursements and City of Dallas Regional Chamber (CDRC) fee revenues. $6 $4 $2 $5.3 M $4.2 M Other TIF General Fund $0 FY FY

12 Implementation Tools Public Private Partnership Program (P/PPP) Tax Increment Finance Districts (TIF) Public Improvement Districts (PID) Municipal Management Districts (MMD) New Market Tax Credits (NMTC) City of Dallas Regional Center (CDRC) Historical Tax Credits HUD Section 108 and Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) CityDesign Studio General Obligation Bond Program State and federal initiatives 7

13 Implementation Tools (Incentive Geographies) TIF Districts CDRC (EB-5) New Market Tax Credit PIDs and MMDs 8

14 Development Strategy Reinvestment in the core Focus on business development: recruitment and expansion Repositioning property into more productive uses: TIF districts, industrial parks Cost-benefit approach Marketing 9

15 Council Objectives Council also identified specific milestone projects to focus development activity Convention Center Hotel open and operational by 1Q 2012 Redevelop 4% aging multifamily housing Recruitment of production facility in Southern Dallas Increase real property value in 10 opportunity areas Continue Streetcar Implementation Plan Increase the number of business customers that rate the city s responsiveness as Good or Excellent Establish or reinvigorate retail in Southern Dallas 10

16 Council Objective Results Hotel completion scheduled for 4Q % of aging multi-family housing stock demolished 7 Southern Dallas manufacturing projects: 1,023 jobs; $149.6M investment Opportunity area values up 10.2%; 7% in North; 24% in South Streetcar system plan; McKinney extension; Trinity River crossing 2008 baseline 85% say Dallas Good or Excellent Place to Do Business 4 Southern Dallas shopping centers (610K sq ft); 8 Aldi grocery stores (5 open); 4 Walmarts announced 11

17 Economic Results The city has seen remarkable improvements in the past five years, especially considering the magnitude of the Great Recession of Economic Growth (2006 to 2010) 6.5 M sq. ft of commercial space added 14,064 jobs added 27,000 new housing units permitted 12

18 Results: Economic Growth Since 2006 Jobs Economic Output 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Dallas DFW TX US 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Dallas DFW TX US Growth of people working in Dallas exceeded growth for the U.S. and DFW, lagged Texas. Dallas economic output (gross product) exceeds national rate, matches Texas and trails slightly the region overall. 13 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, City of Dallas.

19 Results: Employment Opportunities Since 2006 Unemployment 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% Dallas DFW TX US Unemployment rate slightly above region overall and Texas, below U.S. Has been tracking lower than the U.S. rate for over three years. 14 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Results: Unemployment Since U.S. unemployment rate becomes greater than City of Dallas rate US City of Dallas 15

21 Results: Revenue Since 2006 Property Tax Base (Millions) Sales Tax Revenue (Millions) Hotel Occupancy Revenue (Millions) 95, , ,000 80, , , * * *2011 Estimate Property tax base still up 12.3 % through recession; HOT and sales tax revenue down since 2006, but recovering. 16 Source: City of Dallas

22 Results: $146.5M in Public Funds Leverages $3B in Private Investment Since 2006 Public Private Partnership Program Public Investment Private Investment Total ($M) North ($M) South ($M) $33.1 $15 $18 $834 $365 $469 Jobs 7,703 6,315 1,388 PPP leverage = 25.2 to 1 Northern TIFs Southern TIFs Public Investment Tax Base Investment $78.2 $35.2 $1,800 $423 TIF leverage = 19.6 to

23 Example Projects Since 2006 Southern Dallas Four new TIFs, including TOD TIF 2 block Lancaster Corridor land assemblage at VA DART Station 3 new water bottling plants (423 jobs) 3 business parks 4 new/redeveloped grocery-anchored retail centers $1B investment from last 3 bond programs South Central Police Substation Bexar St Corridor Urban Land Bank DART Expansion 17 new stations Green line opened $5.5B TOD construction completed, under construction and planned Long-Term Catalyst Initiatives IIPOD UNT Dallas Campus Trinity Corridor New TV Series Good Guys, Chase, Lonestar Downtown Parks: Main Street Garden completed 2009, Belo Gardens and Woodall Rodgers Deck Park under construction Hotels: Aloft Hotel completed Joule hotel renovation completed, expansion underway 1,000 room Omni Convention Center Hotel under construction Arts District: Winspear, Wyly Completed, Strauss Square, and City Performance Hall under construction Mercantile redevelopment produces 366 residential units AT&T, Comerica headquarters recruited and Deloitte headquarters retained and expanded = 1,841 jobs $100+M in 2006 bond investments 18

24 Going Forward Opportunities Focus resources/additional investment in Southern Dallas neighborhoods with best chance of changing perceptions/attracting private investment Implement Downtown 360 recommendations and provide continued public support for ongoing projects, with objective of achieving critical mass of activity Develop a sustainable institutionalized recruitment program that strengthens local industry clusters/improves networks. Seek opportunities in Dallas Eds and Meds Partner with Aviation Department to redevelop aviation and non-aviation assets at Love Field and Executive Airport 19

25 Going Forward Opportunities (cont d) Complete connectivity between development anchors Support delivery of major generational publicly-funded asset and infrastructure amenities (i.e. Dallas Omni Hotel, City Performance Hall, Woodall Rodgers Deck Park, UNT Law School, DART Blue Line to UNT Dallas, etc.) Lay groundwork for development of Trinity River Corridor (West Dallas Gateway, Cedars West, Downtown overlook) Support redevelopment of mega sites (Valley View, Citywide TOD, Southwest Center Mall, demolished apartment complexes) Leverage private investment in public assets (DART rail, airports, IIPOD, Fair Park) Promote foreign investment in Dallas through leveraging of the CDRC EB-5 program 20

26 Suggested Goals and Performance Measures Establish four-year goals for the following: Employment (Level of business activity) Labor force (number of Dallas residents in the work force) Unemployment rate (% of Dallas residents actively looking for work, but unable to find it) Downtown tax base (real property values inside the CBD) Tax base in Southern Dallas (measure real property values in focused areas of investment) 21

27 Suggested Goals and Performance Measures (cont d) Establish community sustainability indicators that are tracked annually Commitment: degree that households invested in their neighborhoods Resilience: capability of households to withstand adverse conditions Amenities: how marketable is a neighborhood 22

28 Dallas Neighborhoods 23

29 Discussion and Comments 24

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31 Dallas Workforce and Jobs Economic Development Committee October 3, 2011 Office of Economic Development

32 National Overview Slow national growth, if any Events are moving fast Downside risks include: Financial contagion from Europe Slowing global growth: Japan, Europe, BRICs Political impasse, austerity and consumer malaise at home Employment is the most pressing concern to middle class Americans and recovery in the job market will be key to long-term economic health Dallas is doing better than the nation and unassailable assets remain in place. 2

33 Dallas Real Strengths In an ongoing weak national economy, Dallas is better positioned than the nation and peer cities Diverse business base Regulatory and tax environments No income tax Low overall tax burden Geography and location No geographic constraints Central U.S. location Urban dynamic Relatively young city (newer infrastructure) Effective urban redevelopment investments 3

34 A Positive Legacy Railroad hub (1873) Dallas economic base is built on a string of successful industries Trade, Services, Manufacturing Aircraft plants (1940/41) Aviation hub (1928 & 1973) Banking center (1913) Group insurance (1929) Integrated circuit (1958) Wholesale hub (1957) Convenience store (1927) IT outsourcing (1962) 4

35 City of Professionals (Headquarters and High-End Services) 20% 19.0% 18% 16% 14.8% 14% 13.1% 12% 11.7% 10% 8% 6% 8.2% 6.2% Dallas DFW U.S. 4% 2% 3.7% 3.1% 2.3% 0% Business and Professional Services Finance 5 Information

36 Location, Location, Location 6

37 Planes, Trains and Automobiles Access all North American cities by air in fewer than four hours Reach 35% of the U.S. population (by truck) and 98% of the U.S. population (by rail) within 48 hours from Dallas 3 Class I railroads 5 Interstate highways 19 federal and state highways 45 DART rail stations 142 U.S. (38 international) cities non-stop from DFW 7

38 Inexpensive 8

39 National Economic Summary All cities are challenged by ongoing depressed national and world economies Unemployment at 9.1%: 13.9M unemployed 8.4M part-time for economic reasons 2.8M marginally attached Housing starts at a 51-year low Sales up over last year, still down since 2008 Prices down 5% over last year, down 13% since 2008 Personal income up by 0.1% (at 1996 levels, adjusted) Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.3% 9

40 No Dallas Recession This Year (City of Dallas Leading Index) 12-month moving average Index consistently above the moving average post recession Current city growth Index consistently below the moving average, trend leading up to the national recession Great Recession Dec 2007 to June Source: OED Analysis

41 Staying Unemployed (% of U.S. Civilian Workforce Unemployed More than 26 Weeks) People who lost jobs are not finding new ones easily 6M 11 Source: BLS series LNU

42 Jobless Recovery (Number of months for employment to recover after recession starts) 12 Source: OED Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

43 Jobless Recovery (Number of months for employment to recover after recession starts) 13 Source: OED Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

44 Jobless Recovery (Number of months for employment to recover after recession starts) 14 Source: OED Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

45 Jobless Recovery (Number of months for employment to recover after recession starts) Recessions are having a longer-lasting Impact on employment 15 Source: OED Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

46 Dallas Unemployment Gap (U.S. rate minus Dallas rate) From outperforming the nation handily, Dallas unemployment rate is converging to the U.S. 0.2 points better than the US Great Recession Dec 2007 to June Source: OED Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

47 Consistent Regional Gap (Unemployment rates) 17

48 Jobs verses Employed 1M people report to work in Dallas city limits 554,000 Dallas residents have jobs 60% work in Dallas 40% work in suburbs 727,000 suburban residents come into the city for their work A. Work in Dallas: A1. Live and work in Dallas A2. Live in suburbs, work in Dallas B. Work in suburbs: B1. Live in Dallas, work in suburbs B2. Live and work in suburbs A1 A2 B1 B2 3M DFW Jobs and 3M Employed Workers 18

49 Recovering Jobs (People working in Dallas) Recent jobs recovery 19 Great Recession Dec 2007 to June 2009 Source: OED Analysis

50 Flat Employment (Dallas residents that have jobs anywhere) Dallas delayed effects from the recession Employment not growing Great Recession Dec 2007 to June Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

51 Industry Mismatch (% workforce and employment by industry) Wrong workforce or the wrong jobs? Given the job base Dallas has: Shortage of financial and professional service workers Excess of construction, health and other service workers 21 Source: OED Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau.

52 Dallas and DFW Workforce (Share of employment by occupation) Workforce in Dallas is concentrated in different occupations than the suburban workforce Source: OED Analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 22

53 Dallas and DFW Workforce (Share of employment by occupation) Dallas workforce is more concentrated in non-professional occupations Source: OED Analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 23

54 Dallas and DFW Workforce (National unemployment rates by occupation) Unemployment rates are higher in Dallas residents leading occupations 4.9% 5.1% 10.3% 8.8% 13.2%, 8.4% 11.2% Source: OED Analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 24

55 Dallas and DFW Workforce (Local annual average wages by occupation) Wages are relatively low in Dallas residents leading occupations $89K $62K $24K $37K $39K $32K Source: OED Analysis of Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 25

56 Uneducated = Unemployed? (U.S. unemployment rate by education level) Local Workforce Share COD DFW 27% 18% 22% 23% 23% 29% 28% 30% Source, Bureau of Labor Statistics: LNS , LNS , LNS , LNS

57 Jobs-Workforce Mismatch Given the characteristics of North Texas industrial mix: Dallas industry mix is concentrated in higher paying industries (jobs in city limits) Dallas workforce is heavily concentrated in the lower paying, higher unemployment occupations (residents) 27

58 Next Steps Complete more detailed examination of Dallas workforce educational and employment characteristics and relationship to Dallas industries and jobs Identify implications for workforce training, education, housing policy and business development activities Report results and recommendations to committee 28

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