WATERLINK SUMMER 2011

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1 WATERLINK SUMMER 2011 INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Water Consumption Continues Its Downward Trend as Regional Population Grows Current Water Supply Conditions and Outlook Forum Member Spotlight: Don Davidson Other Issues to Consider in Water Supply Planning Green River Filtration Project Update Water Consumption Continues Its Downward Trend as Regional Population Grows What is the state of the water supply? Regional water providers say change is the key factor. Seattle Public Utilities supplies water to about 1.3 million people in King County and southwest Snohomish County. For most of Seattle s history, water consumption has increased along with its population. However, that link was broken around 1990 when consumption reached its highest levels of about 170 million gallons per day (mgd). Since then, water consumption has steadily declined due to various forms of conservation despite continued population growth. Seattle and its suburban customers now use about 120 mgd. That s less water than Seattle and the surrounding suburbs were using in the 1960s. THE FORUM City of Everett City of Seattle City of Tacoma Cascade Water Alliance King County Pierce County Regional Water Association South King County Regional Water Association East King County Regional Water Association Snohomish King Pierce Everett Water Utility Committee Snohomish River Regional Water Authority Tacoma Public Utilities supplies water to a population of more than 300,000 in Pierce and south King Counties. During most of Tacoma s history, water consumption increased along with its population. However, that link was broken in the 1980s when peak day consumption reached its highest levels of about 134 million gallons per day (mgd). Since then, water consumption has steadily declined due to various forms of conservation despite continued population growth. Tacoma and its suburban customers now use about 54 mgd on average and about 100 mgd on the hottest summer day. The City of Everett supplies water to the majority of Snohomish County representing a population of about 557,000 people. Since 1990, the population has increased by about 64 percent, from 340,000 people to 557,000 people. During the same period per capita has steadily declined. 1

2 What happened? Everyone agrees that the 1992 drought led to mandatory water use restrictions and a sharp but temporary drop in summertime water conservation. At the same time, Seattle launched an aggressive conservation program while drastically reducing the amount of water that was lost through in-city reservoir leaks and overflowing. Then in 1993, a new state plumbing code went into effect that established efficiency standards for all new toilets, shower heads and faucet aerators. A seasonal rate structure with inclining blocks had been introduced in 1989 and the level of water and sewer rates increased rapidly during the 1990s and into the current decade. Finally, a new wave of conservation programs began in the year 2000 with the goal of reducing total water production measured in per person water consumption by 1 percent every year for 10 years. As a result, since 2000, Seattle s total system water consumption has declined 19 percent from 148 mgd to 120 mgd. Billed consumption in the City of Seattle has fallen from 69 to 55 mgd or 21 percent. Consumption in the suburbs that purchase water wholesale from Seattle has also declined but by a smaller amount of 14 percent. Finally, non-revenue water has been cut almost in half since Water consumption per person has declined by the following percentages since TOTAL: TOTAL BILLED: SEATTLE RETAIL: WHOLESALE: 26 percent 24 percent 26 percent 21 percent In Tacoma, the mandatory water use restrictions in 1992 had a lasting impact on commercial demands. In 1993, a new state plumbing code went into effect that established efficiency standards for all new toilets, showerheads and faucet aerators. Also in the early 1990s, residential customers moved to a seasonal rate structure and commercial customers moved from a declining block to a flat block structure, both of which sent a conservation message. Finally, a new wave of conservation programs began in the year 2000 with the goal of reducing total water production measured in gallons per capita per day by one percent every year for 10 years ( ). As a result of these and other factors, water consumption has steadily declined even as the population has slowly grown. From , Tacoma s water consumption declined by about 7 mgd, or 12 percent, while the residential population increased by 20 percent. On a per person basis, water consumption shrunk by 16 percent, from 90 to 75 gallons per day. Tacoma has reduced non-revenue water by more than 50 percent since 2000, primarily due to transmission and distribution system improvements. In Everett, in comparing the five-year period beginning in the 1990s ( ) with the last five years ( ) as a means of normalizing water production for weather, average per capita consumption has declined 18.9 percent. 2

3 What s next? That s what the Regional Water Suppliers Forum is tackling individually as members and together as a region. Each entity is undergoing planning reviews, and Cascade Water Alliance, serving east and south King County, is in the market for additional water. Despite the recent purchase by Cascade of Lake Tapps, the goal is to maximize use of existing water in the region prior to creating new sources. As a result, water suppliers throughout the region are working together to address the changing circumstances in a cost-effective, efficient provision of this essential public service. Current Water Supply Conditions and Outlook Seattle, Tacoma and Everett have monitored their supply and all concur the region s overall water supply situation and outlook is good. Chester Morse Lake Reservoir on 5/1/2011 taken by Lloyd Buster 3

4 Forum Member Spotlight Don Davidson City of Bellevue Mayor Ed. Note: Forum Member Spotlight is now a regular feature of the newly re-designed Waterlink member newsletter. Recommendations on members who should be profiled are encouraged. The Forum at don@watersupplyforum.org with suggestions. During almost three decades of public service, Bellevue Mayor Don Davidson has had one consistent, underlying passion water. He claims it s in his genes. His father was a civil engineer, and Davidson, a dentist, adds that he s built many a bridge. But the water he s fascinated with, and has made many a decision regarding, is the water we drink, how we plan for it, and what we as a region do with it. Water knows no jurisdictional boundaries, he says, and the region is at a crossroads as to what to do next with this most precious of natural resources. The changes and decisions facing the region are astounding, he says. In 1984, when first a member of the Bellevue City Council, Don inherited the North Fork Snoqualmie project a proposed water supply project that could also generate power. Water wars of new water and old water and related uses and charges swirled around the area, and those with no equity in the project objected to it. The decision was made to find a different source. A group sought legislative fixes and support from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), but the response was clear no one wanted to proceed with a divided region. Having no regional consensus basically killed this project, Don recalls. But it spurred a new effort, one that he chaired from 1987 through The project was the East King County Regional Water Association. We had demand we thought we d be out of water by But we had no source. At the same time an integrated water group was looking at a vision of water supply for the Eastside. The group gave birth to the Cascade Water Alliance, now serving 400,000 residents and businesses in east and south King County. But Cascade looked at the region and began to use what resources were already there water from Seattle and Tacoma. We thought that was limited and that soon there would be no more water and we eventually bought Lake Tapps as a future water source the first new water supply in the region in decades. About this time, Seattle, Tacoma, Everett and Cascade along with water suppliers throughout the region noticed water demand was dropping. Outstanding conservation programs and a Northwest conservation ethic prevailed. New regulations and plumbing code reflected the need for better efficiency. New appliances were manufactured and promoted. Suddenly, water suppliers had more water, much more water, than they had forecasted. Decades ago, the thinking was if you ve got water, hoard it, Don recalls. But with the Regional Water Suppliers Forum, he says, the focus is collective planning as a region -- something inconceivable when he was working on the North Fork Snoqualmie project. He calls it a tremendously positive and productive change. Actually, everyone at the table had some needs and some things to give. Some had sunken costs or aging infrastructure. Others had too much water. Some needed water. It s a buyer s market today. The result is a joint effort to make the best use of all our resources. It s terrific. 4

5 What does he see in the future for water? I d like to see the forum take more authority and coordination and help move the next need for water supply out even further through efficient use of what we have. No hoarding, just coordination. Well managed and coordinated. Interconnectivity. It s the way of the future a future that will have aging infrastructure and new needs that will only be helped by a well-planned, coordinated management system. Other Issues to Consider in Water Supply Planning Other issues do have an impact on water demand, the utilities report. Some of these issues include: Non-revenue water. SPU cut its system of non-revenue water in half between the 1980s and 1990s. Covering in-city reservoirs and more closely monitoring open reservoir overflows has reduced it another 50 percent since There s very little potential here for additional savings going into the future. The same isn t necessarily true for the distribution systems of individual wholesale customers of SPU. Some utilities like Northshore have very low nonrevenue water while others (Bellevue, Issaquah, Renton, Tukwila and Water District 119) have pretty high levels of non-revenue water with lots of potential for improvement. Green River Filtration Project Update Progress continues on Tacoma Water s Green River Filtration Project. Evaluations and analysis are underway to set the final processes for constructing the facility. Design and construction documents will be complete by May of 2012 and construction will begin immediately thereafter. General Contractor/ Construction Manager process will be used to deliver the project. Tacoma Water presently estimates its project cost will be somewhere between $169 - $217 million. The facility will be substantially complete and in service by the end of Business as usual programmatic conservation. Potential savings from continuing long-running hardware-related conservation programs (water-efficient showerheads, toilets, aerators, washing machines, etc.) are dwindling as the stock of existing fixtures and appliances has become more efficient. When conservation programs began, 3.5 and 5 gallon toilets, 5+ gpm showerheads, and 45+ gallon per load washing machines were common. After almost 20 years of programs and plumbing codes, many if not most of those are gone. Initial toilet replacement programs changed out a 3.5 for a 1.6 gallon per flush toilet, cutting water use in half and saving 1.9 gallons (or in the case of 5 gallon toilets, 3.4 gallons) per flush. Now, we re looking at 1.28 gallon dual flush toilets that exceed code and are even more efficient. However, the incremental savings from replacing a 1.6 gallon toilet with one of these is much smaller. Similarly, most showerheads now meet the code requirements of no more than 3 gpm. Replacing these with 2.5 gpm showerheads yields much less additional savings than the original change-out. There s also the challenge of finding new customers willing to participate in a conservation program. In some areas, the market has been saturated and higher participation rates will only be achieved by paying much higher incentives. New Water Efficiency Codes. New codes are a possible source of considerable new conservation savings. Motivated in large part by the desire to improve energy efficiency, a number of new codes are under consideration and could be adopted in the next decade or so. Also, savings would be substantial because the codes would affect everybody, not just those who chose to participate in a program. However, savings from new codes are difficult to forecast because of the uncertainty surrounding them. What codes might be passed and when? How stringent would they be? These are hard to predict and, because they would be adopted at the federal or possibly state level, they are something individual utilities have no control over. 5

6 Green Buildings. Water efficiency may also be enhanced long term as the goal of sustainability in new construction is pursued. Demonstration green building projects are underway. As cost-effectiveness is evaluated, designing buildings to optimize energy and water efficiency while minimizing storm and wastewater impacts may become more mainstream, resulting in significant - though difficult to predict - conservation savings. Smart Metering. Eventually, old customer water metering technology will be replaced, as it has been in Seattle, with automated meter reading systems that, among other things, will provide customers with real-time instant feedback, which they can use to better control their consumption and reduce their water bills. When this would happen and how large the impact would be is also difficult to forecast. Northwest stewardship ethic. One element that is harder to measure but nonetheless a vital component is the individual water users commitment to preserving water as a precious resource. Habits have changed to embrace conservation and wiser use of water in homes and in yards. While hard to actually measure, it is a contributing factor to reduction in water use. Upside risk. People get used to trends and start assuming they ll continue indefinitely. Old water demand forecasts used to assume the past trend of ever-increasing consumption would continue. Now we ve had a downward trend for 20 years both locally and nationally and the temptation is to assume that this is the new trend that will continue for a long time to come. While there are many reasons to expect continued declines in water use, there are other factors that could work in the opposite direction to increase water demand. Total demand could increase even while per capita consumption continued dropping if regional population and economic growth ends up exceeding the forecasts. One scenario has the Pacific Northwest becoming a magnet for migration as climate change forces people out of California and the arid southwest. Climate change could also affect water consumption here if it results in hotter, drier summers with higher irrigation needs. Another new blip on the radar screen is the push for urban agriculture and locally produced food. The trade-off would be reducing the carbon footprint of shipping food across the globe (e.g. asparagus from Chile) at the cost of increased water use at home. It s hard to predict where this is going. Urban agriculture could be just another passing fad or the wave of the future. Summary. While much of this is highly conjectural it s what water suppliers have available as they try to forecast out 50 to 60 years. The Water Supply Forum aggregates representatives of public water systems and local governments in the Central Puget Sound region of Washington State. The Forum addresses current and future water supply issues, including supply planning, environmental stewardship, and other water supply related issues currently facing the region. We want to hear from you! If you want more information on Forum efforts or provide us with comments, please contact us at forum@watersupplyforum.org or at our mailing address. Water Supply Forum SE 8th Street, Suite 440, Bellevue, WA To sign-up for the Waterlink Newsletter, fill out the online sign-up form. 6