Exploring intra-africa trade: price and expenditure patterns

Transcription

1 Exploring intra-africa trade: price and expenditure patterns Pali Lehohla Statistician-General Statistics South Africa Cape Town 15 October

2 Some questions Development Profile of South Africa How can ICP inform South Africa s industrial policy and economic diplomacy? Are there discernible patterns suggested by ICP prices that reflect the spatial distribution of resources in Africa? Are there discernible regional spatial patterns based on major government/private sector expenditure components? Are regional bodies (e.g. SADC, ECOWAS) optimally grouped in terms of resources and economic performance? 2

3 The following ICP 2005 & 2011 data will be explored Total country economy or GDP Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation Food & non-alcoholic beverages Infrastructure Insight on these three topics will be gained through Thematic mapping Cluster analysis Principle component analysis 3

4 Proportion with flush toilet 4

5 Red indicates wards that have less than 5% households with flush toilets 5

6 Proportion with refuse removal 6

7 7

8 Proportion unemployed 8

9 Red colour means unemployment rate greater than 71% 9

10 %distribution of informal dwellings at ward level 10

11 Informal dwelling Red is less than 10% 11

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13 Green it greater than 48% 13

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15 RED is household with less than 5% access to piped water 15

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17 Red shows 90% or greater 17

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19 Red is less than 10% 19

20 Total country comparisons across Africa 20

21 Basic concepts Prices are high when there is high effective demand or when there are high shortages in supply of goods or services. Prices are low when the opposite is true. Real expenditure is high where there is high income and low where there is low income. Are there discernible country groupings from price and expenditure data? Are there opportunities for South Africa to contribute? 21

22 Some illustrations: total economy prices

23 Some illustrations: total economy or GDP prices

24 Some illustrations: total economy or GDP real expenditure

25 Some illustrations: Household Consumption prices

26 Some illustrations: Household Consumption prices

27 Some illustrations: Household Consumption real expenditure

28 Some illustrations: Gross fixed capital formation prices

29 Some illustrations: Gross fixed capital formation prices

30 Some illustrations: Gross fixed capital formation real expenditure

31 Per capita Gross Capital Formation Income and Investment Correlation between per capita Gross Domestic Product and per capita Gross Capital Formation y = x R² = Botswana Seychelles Algeria South Africa Gabon Egypt 0 Nigeria Per capita Gross Domestic Product 31 31

32 Some illustrations: Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices

33 Some illustrations: Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices

34 Some illustrations: Food & non-alcoholic beverages real expenditure

35 Price differentials the basis for manufacturing and trade Most expensive countries The cost of living across Africa Africa average = 100 Least expensive countries Less expensiv e Average More expensive 35

36 Product class level price differentials the basis for manufacturing and trade Most expensive Least expensive The price of food across Africa Africa average = 1 Less expensiv e Average More expensive 36

37 Item level price differentials the basis for manufacturing and trade Most expensive Least expensive The price of bread & cereals across Africa Africa average = 1 Less expensiv e Average More expensive Bread & cereals includes rice, other cereals & flour, bread, other bakery products, and pasta 37 products

38 Some illustrations: SADC Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices 2005 to

39 Some illustrations: COMESA Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices 2005 to

40 Some illustrations: ECCAS Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices 2005 to

41 Some illustrations: ECOWAS Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices 2005 to

42 Some illustrations: EAC Food & non-alcoholic beverages prices 2005 to

43 Infrastructure 43

44 Infrastructure: Prices and Real Expenditure Housing and Utilities (sum of the sub-categories rentals, water, energy & gas), Transport (operations, services), Communication and Social Infrastructure i.e. Health (medical products & equipment, pharmaceutical products, medical services), and Education. 1. Housing Utilities are higher along the eastern side of Africa, with the exception of Egypt 2. Transport prices are lower in the north-west, as well as that for Communication. 44

45 Some illustrations: Housing & utilities prices 2005 to

46 Some illustrations: Transport prices 2005 to

47 Some illustrations: Communications prices 2005 to

48 Principal Component Analysis 48

49 PCA variable loadings from infrastructure: Housing, Transport and Communication PLI 2011 PLI 2011 Real Expenditure in ZAR Rentals (0.39) Rentals (0.26) Rentals (0.39) Water Maintenance (0.39) Water Maintenance (0.44) Water Maintenance (0.39) Water Service (0.37) Electricity & Gas (0.42) Energy & Gas (0.39) Electricity & Fuels (0.33) Transport Equipment (0.26) Transport Equipment (0.34) Vehicle Purchases (0.36) Transport Operations (0.37) Transport Operations (0.33) Transport Operations (0.37) Transport Services (0.49) Transport Services (0.39) Transport Services (0.33) Communication (0.36) Communication (0.42) Communication (0.22) 49

50 Some illustrations: Housing, personal transport & water 50

51 Some illustrations: Energy, personal transport & water 51

52 Some illustrations: Communication, rental, electricity & gas, transport services 52

53 Essential services 2005 PLI 2011 PLI 2011 Real Expenditure in ZAR Medical Products (0.57) Medical Products & Equip (0.54) Medical Products & Equip (0.52) Medical Services (0.59) Pharmaceutical Products (0.52) Pharmaceutical Products (0.49) Education (0.57) Medical Services (0.50) Medical Services (0.50) Education (0.43) Education (0.49) 53

54 Some illustrations: Health prices 2005 to

55 Some illustrations: Education prices 2005 to

56 Household welfare 2011 Per capita Actual Individual Consumption (Africa = 100) 10 highest countries Below Average Above 56 56

57 Household welfare 2011 Per capita Actual Individual Consumption (Africa = 100) 10 lowest countries Below Average Above 57 57

58 Equatorial Guinea (1) Seychelle s (2) Gabon (3) Africa s distribution of wealth Top four countries real GDP per capita South African rand Mauritius (4) 58

59 Africa s distribution of wealth Top ten countries real GDP by capita South African rand 59

60 Algeria (4) Egyp t (1) Nigeria (3) Africa s distribution of wealth Top four countries by PPP adjusted GDP South African rand (million) South Africa (2) 60

61 Africa s distribution of wealth Top ten countries by real GDP PPP adjusted South African rand (million) 61

62 Conclusions There is evidence of regional clustering in the data. Existing trade blocks do not always show homogeneity in prices, relative expenditure shares and capital expenditure. More insight can be drawn from data collected by ICP, through statistical and spatial analyses. More research is required to gain additional insight based on more frequent data. 62

63 Thank you! 63