Designing Backcasting Scenarios of Regional Socio- Energy Systems for Disaster-Resilient Communities

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1 October 10, Germany Energy Systems in Transition: Inter- and Transdisciplinary Contributions Osaka University Do NOT cite this paper/presentation without prior permission of the Authors. Please feel free to contact Dr. Yusuke Kishita Designing Backcasting Scenarios of Regional Socio- Energy Systems for Disaster-Resilient Communities Yusuke Kishita 1, Kazumasu Aoki 2, Go Yoshizawa 1, Kensuke Yamaguchi 3, Itsuki C. Handoh 4 1 Osaka University, Osaka, Japan 2 University of Toyama, Toyama, Japan 3 University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 4 Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan

2 Introduction In Japan, energy resilience has been illuminated after the great earthquake in March, 2011 As of today, all of 50 nuclear power plants are being shut down The number of those who were sent to hospital due to heat stroke in the last summer reached 59,000 Need to design resilient energy systems Energy systems involve the interactions among technological components, human activities (politics, lifestyles), and ecological systems 1/17

3 Japan s Energy Mix Scenarios in 2030 [Energy and Environment Council, 2011] Three scenarios were suggested depending on the share of nuclear power (0%, 15%, 20-25%) Energy cost and CO 2 emissions were compared But, abandoned by the present administration Japan's Electricity Generation [billion kwh] Thermal Renewables Nuclear Zero-scenario 15-scenario 25-scenario Center for Environmental Innovation (2030) Design for Sustainability, (2030) Osaka University (2030) 2/17

4 Challenges in Designing Resilient Energy Systems 1. Existing institutional/political regimes hinder long-term transformation of energy systems 2. There are numerous unpredictable factors that might affect energy systems consumers lifestyles, institutional design (e.g., feed-in-tariff), economic situations, technological advancement, Difficult to explore desirable systems in a forecasting manner Backcasting scenario approach is promising 3/17

5 Aim of Presentation Aim To propose a method for backcasting scenarios to describe resilient energy systems Problems 1. Visions of resilient energy systems vary critically with stakeholders No shared definitions of energy resilience 2. Insufficient support for describing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy systems 4/17

6 Approach 1. Visions of resilient energy systems vary critically with stakeholders Conduct literature review to extract the essence of energy resilience 2. Insufficient support for describing backcasting scenarios for resilient energy systems Formalize scenario design processes by integrating the idea of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to support backward-thinking FTA: deductive approach to determining causes of undesired event using a backwardstepping process [NASA, 2002] 5/17

7 Literature Review on Energy Resilience Category Energy supply system Sociobiological Literature Lovins, A. B. & Lovins, L.H. (1982) Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security. Brick House Afgan, N.H. (2010) Sustainable Resilience of Energy Systems. Nova Science Holling, C. (1973). Resilience and stability of ecological systems, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1 23 Walker, B. et al. (2004) Resilience, adaptability and transformability in socialecological systems. Ecology and Society 9(2): 5 Smith, A. & Stirling, A. (2010) The politics of social-ecological resilience and sustainable socio-technical transitions. Ecology and Society 15(1): 11 Folke, C. (2006) Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for socialecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16(3): Aven, T. (2011) On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience. Risk Analysis 31(4): Economic Afonso, António and Davide Furceri (2010) Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth, European Journal of political Economy No.849. Aiginger, Karl. (2009) Strengthening in the resilience of an economy Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 2009, vol. 44, issue 5, pages Psychologi cal Masten, Ann S. Best, KarinM., and Garmezy, Norman (1990) Resilience and development, Development and Psychopathology, 2, /17

8 Literature Review on Energy Resilience (excerpted) Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, etc. [Holling, 1973] Lovins et al. (1982) discussed resilience of energy supply systems (e.g., redundancy, diversity,.) A resilient energy system can speedily recover from shocks and can provide alternative means of satisfying energy service needs in the event of changed external circumstances [UKERC, 2009] Essential is maintaining quality and quantity of services for underpinning human activities whenever the system fails 7/17

9 Method for Designing Backcasting Scenarios for Resilient Energy Systems (1) Setting a problem (e.g., period, regions, goal, etc.) (2) Constructing a Fault Tree (3) Determining scenario structures (4) Describing scenarios Sub-scenario Vision: images of future end-points Backward-thinking of causal relationships from disruptive states Goal Disruptive futures due to external shocks Transition: pathways that connect visions and the present Predetermined goals are met Present Future Time 8/17

10 Extracting Structures of Backcasting Scenarios with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Listing risk factors that might result in collapse Sub scenario Sub goal A Goal Sub goal B Sub goal C Goal (Collapse states) Risk factor A 1 Risk factor A 2 Risk factor A 3 Risk factor (causing collapse) Countermeasure A 1 1 Countermeasure A 1 2 Countermeasure (improving resilience) Goal Risk factor Countermeasure Causal relation Countermeasure risk factor 9/17

11 Case Study: Scenarios of Collapsed Energy Systems in Suita City, Osaka, Japan Theme:Enhancing resilience of socio-energy systems in Suita City in 2030 Suita City: suburban area with no power stations Assumed situations of collapsed systems due to external shocks (such as disasters) Described scenarios of Collapsed Suita and risk countermeasures through three workshops Resilient Suita City Scenario Resilient systems by overcoming the collapse Collapsed Suita City Scenario Collapse of energy systems due to external shocks 10/17

12 Regional characteristics of Suita City [Suita City (2010, 2012)] Item Demographics Descriptions The population is 360,718 (2012). The number of the population will be stable from , while people at age of 65 or more will account for 28% in 2030, increased from 19% in Area km 2 (population density: 9,990/km 2 ) Land use Urban area: 63%, green space & school: 21%, railway & roads: 8%, others: 8% Transport ation Industry Research institute Medical service The railway network is well-developed as there are 14 stations within the city. There are several plants incl. beer brewery and pharmaceutical plants. Small-sized companies with less than 10 employees account for 70% (7,496) of all (10,675) in Most employees (88%) are working in the tertiary industry. The city has four universities (including Osaka University) and National Museum of Ethnology. Advanced medical services are provided by several hospitals, such as Osaka University Hospital. 11/17

13 Risks and Countermeasures of Bankrupt Systems (Not exhaustive) Sub-goal Goal Collapsed energy systems in Suita City goal Risk Risk Measure A Collapse due to unavailability of energy A-1 A-2 B-1 City s financial crisis Confusion of daily lives (traffic paralysis, heat disorder, etc.) B Collapse due to energy usage deterioration of sociobiological systems Overseas transfer of companies Higher electricity prices Higher energy prices Promoting the diffusion of renewables Heat stroke Heat island phenomena Greening wall Large-scale blackout Decreased electricity capacity of the grid Liberalizing the electricity market Transfer of electricity within the community (e.g., from industry to household) Accidents in nuclear power plants 12/17

14 Subscenario Storyline Risk counterm easure Storylines of Collapse Scenarios and Risk Countermeasures A. Collapse due to unavailability of energy B. Collapse due to energy usage A-1. City s financial crisis Higher energy prices and decommission of nuclear plants result in higher electricity prices, causing the industry to move outside the city. The city encounters financial crisis, lowering municipal services Promote the diffusion of renewables as a mitigation measure A-2. Confusion of daily lives Large-scale blackout occurs because liberalizing the electricity market decreases capacity of centralized power stations, making the grid power fragile. This makes hospital services unavailable. Install power generator in industry and hospital and send electricity to households B-1. deterioration of biological systems Accidents in nuclear power plant cause large-scale radioactive pollution. Strong Japanese Yen accelerates consumption of fossil fuels, worsening environmental pollution. Enact a law to store emergency food and water at supermarkets 13/17

15 Implications from the Described Scenarios From Workshop Participants Opinions Agreed that large-scale blackouts should be avoided of the highest priority Heat stroke may give a more significant impact in the ageing society in 2030 As an adaptive measure for blackouts, sending electricity from the industrial sector to households would be promising Industry would be willing to do so from the viewpoint of CSR For Suita City, energy supply systems are basically external factors Need to scale-up for involving key stakeholders 14/17

16 Discussion Described three scenarios using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) based on risk factors countermeasures Visualized the causal relationships between collapse and its risk factors Clarifying scenario logic helps constructive discussion among stakeholders involved However, transition paths to resilient energy systems have NOT yet been described enough Need to draw the paths with forward-thinking based on the constructed Fault Trees 15/17

17 An Example: Describing Transition Paths by Forward-thinking Sub-goal A City s financial crisis Goal Collapse due to unavailability of energy Collapsed energy systems in Suita City A-1 A-2 B-1 Confusion of daily lives (traffic paralysis, heat disorder, etc.) B Collapse due to energy usage deterioration of sociobiological systems Overseas transfer of companies Heat stroke Large-scale blackout Higher electricity prices Higher energy prices Promoting the diffusion of renewables Heat island phenomena Greening wall Decreased electricity capacity of the grid Liberalizing the electricity market When FIT scheme applied Transfer of electricity within the community (e.g., from industry to household) 16/17

18 Conclusion Proposed a method for designing backcasting scenarios using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Described three scenarios for resilient Suita City clarifying causal relationships among collapse patterns, risk factors, and countermeasures Would help systematic thinking for designing resilient energy systems in the local community Future issues Implement the proposed method into the real policymaking flow in Suita City Polish up the scenarios to make them more realistic 17/17

19 Thank you for your attention! Any Questions? Dr. Yusuke Kishita Center for Environmental Innovation Design for Sustainability (CEIDS), Osaka University