Armagh City and District Council Stage 2 update and Stage 3 Review and Assessment

Transcription

1 Report = Armagh City and District Council Stage 2 update and Stage 3 Report to Armagh City and District Council = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = åetcen/ed /issue 1 October 2003 =

2 Title Armagh City and District Council Stage 2 Update and Stage 3 Customer Armagh City and District Council Customer reference Confidentiality, copyright and reproduction Restricted Commercial This document has been prepared by netcen in connection with a contract to supply goods and/or services and is submitted only on the basis of strict confidentiality. The contents must not be disclosed to third parties other than in accordance with the terms of the contract. File reference netcen/ed /issue 1 Reference number netcen/ed /issue 1 Address for Correspondence netcen Culham Science Park Abingdon Oxon OX14 3ED Telephone Facsimile Kate.Haigh@aeat.co.uk netcen is a operating division of AEA Technology plc netcen is certificated to ISO9001 & ISO Name Signature Date Author Reviewed by Approved by Kate Haigh Geoff Dollard Geoff Dollard = åéíåéå= áá=

3 = åéíåéå= ááá=

4 Executive Summary Stage 2 Update and Stage 3 The UK Government published its strategic policy framework for air quality management in 1995 establishing national strategies and policies on air quality. The NI Environment Order came into operation in January 2003 and implements both the European Air Framework Directive 96/62EC and the UK Air Quality Strategy. The Air Quality Strategy and provides a framework for air quality control through air quality management and air quality standards. New air quality standards have been proposed by the Expert Panel on Air Quality Standards (EPAQS) for the UK. All local authorities are thus required to undertake an air quality review. In areas where air quality objectives are not anticipated to be met by the specified date, Local Authorities are required to establish Air Quality Management Areas to improve air quality. Local Air Quality Management Policy Guidance (LAQM.PGNI (03)) is guidance designed to help relevant authorities with their local air quality management duties under Part III of the environment (NI) Order The guidance sets out the legislative framework for the system of local Air quality Management (LAQM). The Environment (NI) Order 2002 provides the framework for LAQM across Northern Ireland. The air Quality Objectives set out in the Air Quality Regulations (NI) 2003 provide the statutory basis for the system of LAQM. The first step in this process is to undertake a review of current and potential future air pollution. Armagh City and District Council have completed a Stage 1 review and assessment which concluded that a Stage 2 review and assessment was required for the pollutants nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and particulate matter. Armagh have also completed the stage 2 review and assessment. It identified the need to further assess domestic combustion. Since the stage 2, new data regarding traffic has also become available and so the stage 2 road traffic assessment for NO 2 will also be revisited. This report forms the Stage 3 Air Quality Review for Armagh City and District Council. PM 10, NO 2 and SO 2 are considered within this report. This report investigates current and potential future PM 10, SO 2 and NO 2 levels through an examination of the location and size of traffic, industrial and domestic combustion sources, emissions modelling exercises and by reference to monitored air quality data. As part of this report, detailed modelling of domestic fuel combustion using ADMS version 3.1 has been undertaken at the 3, 1km 2, grids in Armagh, identified in the Stage 2 as needing further assessment. The conclusions of the report are: PM 10 Emissions arising from road transport and domestic fuel combustion in Armagh City and District Council are not predicted to cause an exceedence of the air quality objective within Armagh. Nitrogen Dioxide Emissions arising from road transport in Armagh City and District Council are not predicted to cause an exceedence of the air quality objective within Armagh. Sulphur dioxide It is not yet possible to conclude whether emissions arising from domestic fuel combustion in Armagh City and District Council are likely to cause an exceedence of the air quality objective within Armagh as the modelling results have yet to be corrected using local monitoring data. Monitoring is currently in place and data are anticipated to be available in March 2004; therefore the model results will be revisited in April = netcen iv

5 Maps reproduced within this document All maps in this document are reproduced from Ordnance Survey material with permission of Her Majesty s Stationery Office Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. netcen v

6 Acronyms and definitions ADMS an atmospheric dispersion model AQDD Common Position on Air Quality Daughter Directives AQMA Air Quality Management Area AQS Air Quality Strategy AURN Automatic Urban and Rural Network d.f. degrees of freedom Defra Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) DETR Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (now Defra) EA Environment Agency EPA Environmental Protection Act EPAQS Expert Panel on Air Quality Standards GIS Geographical Information System LADS Urban background model specifically developed for Stage 3 Review and Assessment work. This model allowed contributions of the urban background and domestic emissions to be calculated n number of pairs of data NAEI National Atmospheric Emission Inventory AQS Air Quality Strategy ppb parts per billion r the correlation coefficient roadside 1 to 5 m from the kerb netcen vi

7 Contents Stage 2 Update and Stage 3 1 Introduction 1 NKN= mromlpb=lc=qeb=pqrav= N= NKO= dbkbo^i=^mmol^`e=q^hbk= N= NKP= sbopflk=lc=qeb=i^nj=qb`ekf`^i=drfa^k`b=rpba=fk=qefp=^ppbppjbkq= O= NKQ= krj_bofkd=lc=cfdrobp=^ka=q^_ibp= O= NKR= rkfqp=lc=`lk`bkqo^qflk= O= NKS= pqor`qrob=lc=qeb=obmloq= O= 2 The updated Air Quality Strategy 3 OKN= qeb=kbba=clo=^k=^fo=nr^ifqv=pqo^qbdv= P= OKO= lsbosfbt=lc=qeb=mofk`fmibp=^ka=j^fk=bibjbkqp=lc=qeb=^fo=nr^ifqv=pqo^qbdv= Q= OKOKN= ^áê=nì~äáíó=pí~åç~êçë= Q= OKOKO= oéä~íáçåëüáé=äéíïééå=íüé=rh=^áê=nì~äáíó=pí~åç~êçë=~åç=br=~áê=èì~äáíó=iáãáí=s~äìéër= OKOKP= mçäáåáéë=áå=éä~åé=íç=~ääçï=íüéëé=çäàéåíáîéë=íç=äé=~åüáéîéç= S= OKOKQ= qáãéëå~äéë=íç=~åüáéîé=íüé=çäàéåíáîéë= T= OKP= ^fo=nr^ifqv=obsfbtp= T= OKPKN= qéåüåáå~ä=öìáç~ååé= T= OKPKO= mü~ëéç=^ééêç~åü= T= OKPKP= qéåüåáå~ä=öìáç~ååé=ñçê=^êã~öü= T= OKQ= il`^qflkp=qe^q=qeb=obsfbt=^ka=^ppbppjbkq=jrpq=`lk`bkqo^qb=lk= NO= 3 Information used to support this assessment 15 PKN= fkcloj^qflk=molsfaba=_v=^oj^de=`fqv=^ka=afpqof`q=`lrk`fi=ql=prmmloq=qefp= ^ppbppjbkq= NR= PKNKN= fåçìëíêá~ä=~åç=qê~åëéçêí=aéîéäçéãéåí=áå=^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç=aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä= NR= PKO= il`^i=^fo=nr^ifqv=jlkfqlofkd=a^q^= NR= PKOKN= bñíéåí=çñ=ç~í~=~î~áä~ääé= NR= PKOKO= nì~äáíó=^ëëìê~ååélnì~äáíó=åçåíêçä=çñ=ç~í~= NR= PKP= qo^ccf`=a^q^= NR= PKPKN= cäçï=~åç=ëéééç= NS= PKPKO= qê~ññáå=öêçïíü= NS= PKPKP= cê~åíáçå=çñ=edsë= NS= PKPKQ= aáëí~ååé=çñ=íüé=êéåééíçê=ñêçã=íüé=åéåíêé=çñ=íüé=êç~ç=~åç=íüé=âéêäëáçék= NS= PKQ= j^mp= NS= PKR= jbqblolildf`^i=a^q^=rpba=fk=qeb=afpmbopflk=jlabiifkd= NS= 4 of Nitrogen Dioxide 17 QKN= fkqolar`qflk= NT= QKNKN= pí~åç~êçë=~åç=çäàéåíáîéë=ñçê=åáíêçöéå=çáçñáçé= NT= QKNKO= qüé=k~íáçå~ä=méêëééåíáîé= NT= QKNKP= _~ÅâÖêçìåÇ=ÅçåÅÉåíê~íáçåë=çÑ=káíêçÖÉå=ÇáçñáÇÉ= NU= QKNKQ= jçåáíçêáåö=çñ=åáíêçöéå=çáçñáçé=áå=^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç=aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä= NU= QKNKR= fãé~åí=çñ=oç~ç=íê~ññáå=çå=åçååéåíê~íáçåë=çñ=çñáçéë=çñ=åáíêçöéå=áå=^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç= aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä= NU= QKNKS= `çååäìëáçåë=ñçê=åáíêçöéå=çáçñáçé=åçååéåíê~íáçåë=áå=^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç=aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä = NV= 5 Review and assessment of PM RKN= fkqolar`qflk= OM= netcen vii

8 RKNKN= pí~åç~êçë=~åç=çäàéåíáîéë=ñçê=é~êíáåìä~íé=ã~ííéê= OM= RKNKO= qüé=k~íáçå~ä=méêëééåíáîé= OM= RKO= ^oj^de=`fqv=^ka=afpqof`q=`lrk`fi= ON= RKOKN= _~ÅâÖêçìåÇ=ÅçåÅÉåíê~íáçåë=çÑ=mj NM = ON= RKOKO= ^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç=aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä==j=áãé~åí=çñ=oç~ç=íê~ññáå=çå=mj NM = ON= RKOKP= ^êã~öü=`áíó=~åç=aáëíêáåí=`çìååáä==j=mj NM =jçåáíçêáåö= OO= RKOKQ= cìöáíáîé=éãáëëáçå=ñêçã=èì~êêáéëk= OP= RKOKR= `çååäìëáçåë=ñçê=mj NM =ÅçåÅÉåíê~íáçåë=^êã~ÖÜ=`áíó=~åÇ=aáëíêáÅí=`çìåÅáä= OQ= RKOKS= açãéëíáå=cìéä=`çãäìëíáçåk= OQ= 6 Review and assessment of PM 10 and SO 2 from Domestic Fuel combustion 25 SKN= aljbpqf`=crbi=`lj_rpqflkw=pq^db=n=`lk`irpflkp= OR= SKO= ^oj^de=`fqv=^ka=afpqof`q=`lrk`fi=crbi=rpb=prosbv= OR= SKOKN= pçìíüïéëí=^êã~öü= OR= SKOKO= kçêíüïéëí=^êã~öü= OS= SKOKP= `Éåíê~ä=^êã~ÖÜ= OS= SKP= aljbpqf`=plro`bp=pq^db=qtl=obsfbt=^ka=^ppbppjbkq= OS= SKQ= aljbpqf`=plro`bp=pq^db=qeobb=obsfbt=^ka=^ppbppjbkq= OS= SKQKN= pçìíüïéëí=^êã~öü= OT= SKQKO= kçêíüïéëí=^êã~öü= OT= SKQKP= `Éåíê~ä=^êã~ÖÜ= OU= SKQKQ= _á~ë=`çêêéåíáçå= OV= SKR= jlabi=obpriqp= OV= SKS= afp`rppflk= PS= SKSKN= mj NM = PS= SKSKO= pl O = PS= SKT= aljbpqf`=crbi=`lj_rpqflk=`lk`irpflkp= PS= SKTKN= mj NM = PS= SKTKO= pl O = PS= 7 Conclusions 37 TKN= kfqoldbk=aflufab= TKO= primero=aflufab= TKP= mj NM = PT= PT= PT= Appendices Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Monitoring Data Traffic Data netcen viii

9 1 Introduction Stage 2 Update and Stage 3 The UK Government published its strategic policy framework for air quality management in 1995 establishing national strategies and policies on air quality. The NI Environment Order came into operation in January 2003 and implements both the European Air Framework Directive 96/62EC and the UK Air Quality Strategy. The Air Quality Strategy and provides a framework for air quality control through air quality management and air quality standards. The Expert Panel on Air Quality Standards (EPAQS) has proposed new air quality standards for the UK. All local authorities are thus required to undertake an air quality review. In areas where air quality objectives are not anticipated to be met by the specified date, Local Authorities are required to establish Air Quality Management Areas to improve air quality. Local Air Quality Management Policy Guidance (LAQM.PGNI (03)) is guidance designed to help relevant authorities with their local air quality management duties under Part III of the environment (NI) Order The guidance sets out the legislative framework for the system of local Air quality Management (LAQM). The Environment (NI) Order 2002 provides the framework for LAQM across Northern Ireland. The air Quality Objectives set out in the Air Quality Regulations (NI) 2003 provide the statutory basis for the system of LAQM. 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY netcen was commissioned to complete the second stage review and assessment and undertake a third stage for domestic fuel combustion for Armagh City and District Council. The review: Investigates present and potential future air quality in Armagh City and District Council area Identifies any actions that are likely to be required by Armagh City and District Council under the Environment (NI) Order Recommends actions, if necessary, to control the subsequent air quality within Armagh City and District Council area. 1.2 GENERAL APPROACH TAKEN The approach taken in this study was to: Collect and interpret additional data to support the third stage assessment, including the detailed fuel use survey data for the location where exceedences were predicted; Use the monitoring data to assess the ambient concentrations produced by domestic fuel combustion and to validate the output of their own modelling studies. Model the concentrations of PM 10 and SO 2 in the selected grid squares, concentrating on the locations (receptors) where people might be exposed over the relevant averaging times of the air quality objectives; Present the concentrations as contour plots of concentrations and comment on the uncertainty in the predicted concentrations Reassess traffic source emissions using the latest version of DMRB and new traffic data to finalise the stage 2 review and assessment for traffic sources netcen 1

10 Assess a number of quarries in the council area to finalise the stage 2 review and assessment for industrial sources. 1.3 VERSION OF THE LAQM TECHNICAL GUIDANCE USED IN THIS ASSESSMENT In preparing this report the latest version of the Government Guidance has been used LAQM TG (03) in conjunction with the previous 'Pollutant Specific Guidance' (2000). 1.4 NUMBERING OF FIGURES AND TABLES The numbering scheme is not sequential, the figures and tables are numbered according to the chapter and section that they relate to. 1.5 UNITS OF CONCENTRATION The units throughout this report are presented in µg m -3 (which is consistent with the presentation of the AQS objectives), unless otherwise noted. 1.6 STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT This document is the completion of the outstanding stage 2 sources and the stage 3 review and assessment for domestic fuel combustion for Armagh City and District Council. This chapter, Chapter 1 has summarised the need for the work and the approach to completing the study. Chapter 2 of the report describes the most recent developments in the UK s Air Quality Strategy (AQS). In addition, it discusses when implementation of an AQMA is required. Chapter 3 contains details of the information used to conduct the stage 3 review and assessment for Armagh City and District Council. Chapters 4, 5 and 6 describe the results of the assessment and discuss whether both the PM 10 and sulphur dioxide objectives will be exceeded in Armagh City and District Council in 2004/5. The results of the analysis are displayed as contour plots. netcen 2

11 2 The updated Air Quality Strategy Stage 2 Update and Stage THE NEED FOR AN AIR QUALITY STRATEGY After agreement, in June 1998 at the European Union Environment Council, of a Common Position on the Air Quality Daughter Directives (AQDD), the government published its proposals for review of the National Air Quality Strategy (in 1999). Subsequently the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland was published in January The NI Environment Order came into operation in January 2003 and implements both the European Air Framework Directive 96/62EC and the UK Air Quality Strategy. The Expert Panel on Air Quality Standards (EPAQS) has proposed new air quality standards for the UK. The NI Environment Order 2002 provides the framework for LAs to review air quality and for implementation of an AQMA. It is issued by the Department of the Environment in Northern Ireland under Article 16 of the Environment (NI) Order Under section 16 of the Order, District Councils and other relevant authorities are required to have regard to this guidance when carrying out any of their duties under, or by virtue of Part III of the order. The guidance is outlined in Table 2.1 below. NI Environment Order 2002 key Guidance: The statutory background and the legislative framework within which relevant authorities have to work The new principles behind reviews and assessments of air quality up to 2010 and the recommended steps that relevant authorities should take The timetable for reviews and assessments up to 2010 How district councils should handle the designation of AQMAs How relevant authorities should handle the drawing up and implementation of action plans Recommendations and suggestions on taking forward the development of local and regional air quality strategies Suggestions of how relevant authorities should consult and liase with others Local transport measures which Roads Service might wish to consider The general principles behind air quality and land use planning; and How enforcing authorities should use powers of entry under Article 19 of the Order netcen 3

12 2.2 OVERVIEW OF THE PRINCIPLES AND MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE AIR QUALITY STRATEGY The main elements of the AQS can be summarised as follows: The use of a health effects based approach using air quality standards and objectives. The use of policies by which the objectives can be achieved and which include the input of important actors such as industry, transportation bodies and local authorities. The predetermination of timescales with a target dates of 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2010 for the achievement of objectives and a commitment to review the Strategy every three years. It is intended that the AQS will provide a framework for the improvement of air quality that is both clear and workable. In order to achieve this, the Strategy is based on several principles which include: the provision of a statement of the Government s general aims regarding air quality; clear and measurable targets; a balance between local and national action and a transparent and flexible framework. Co-operation and participation by different economic and governmental sectors is also encouraged within the context of existing and potential future international policy commitments Air Quality Standards At the centre of the AQS is the use of air quality standards to enable air quality to be measured and assessed. These also provide the means by which objectives and timescales for the achievement of objectives can be set. Most of the proposed standards have been based on the available information concerning the health effects resulting from different ambient concentrations of selected pollutants and are the consensus view of medical experts on the Expert Panel on Air Quality Standards (EPAQS). These standards and associated specific objectives to be achieved between 2003 and 2010 are shown in Table 2.2. The table shows the standards in µg m -3 with the number of exceedences that are permitted (where applicable). Specific objectives relate either to achieving the full standard or, where use has been made of a short averaging period, objectives are sometimes expressed in terms of percentile compliance. The use of percentiles means that a limited number of exceedences of the air quality standard over a particular timescale, usually a year, are permitted. This is to account for unusual meteorological conditions or particular events such as November 5th. For example, if an objective is to be complied with at the 99.9th percentile, then 99.9% of measurements at each location must be at or below the level specified. netcen 4

13 Table 2.2. Proposed Objectives included in the Air Quality Regulations (NI) 2003 for the purpose of Local Air Quality Management. Pollutant Air Quality Objective Concentration Measured as Date to be achieved by Benzene µgm µgm -3 Running annual mean Running annual mean ,3 Butadiene 2.25 µgm -3 Running annual mean Carbon Monoxide 10.0 mgm -3 Maximum daily running 8-hour mean Lead 0.5 µgm µgm -3 Nitrogen Dioxide µgm -3 no to be exceeded more than 18 times a year 40 µgm -3 Annual mean Annual mean 1 hour mean annual mean Particles (PM 10 ) 2 Gravimetric 3 50 µgm -3 not to be exceeded more than 35 times a year 24 hour mean µgm -3 annual mean Sulphur Dioxide 350 µgm -3 not to be exceeded more than 24 times per year 125 µgm -3 not to be exceeded more than 3 times per year 266 µgm -3 not to be exceeded more than 35 times per year 1 hour mean 24 hour mean 15 minute mean Notes 1. The objectives for nitrogen dioxide are provisional. 2. Likely to be new particles objective for 2010, not in regulation at present, expected after the review of the EU s first Air Quality Daughter Directive (2004). 3. Measured using the European gravimetric transfer standard or equivalent Relationship between the UK Air Quality Standards and EU air quality Limit Values As a member state of the EU, the UK must comply with European Union Directives. There are three EU ambient air quality directives that the UK has transposed in to UK law. These are: netcen 5

14 96/62/EC Council Directive of 27 September 1996 on ambient air quality assessment and management. (the Ambient Air Framework Directive) 1999/30/EC Council Directive of 22 April 1999 relating to limit values for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter and lead in ambient air. (the First Daughter Directive) 2000/69/EC Directive of the European Parliament and the Council of 16 Nov 2000 relating to limit values for benzene and carbon monoxide in ambient air. (the Second Daughter Directive) The first and second daughter directives contain air quality Limit Values for the pollutants that are listed in the framework directive. The United Kingdom (i.e. Great Britain and Northern Ireland) must comply with these Limit Values. The UK air quality strategy should allow the UK to comply with the EU Air Quality Daughter Directives, but the UK air quality strategy also includes some stricter objectives for some pollutants, for example, sulphur dioxide. The Government is ultimately responsibility for achieving the EU limit values. However, it is important that Local Air Quality Management is used as a tool to ensure that the necessary action is taken at local level to work towards achieving the EU limit values by the dates specified in those EU Directives Policies in place to allow these objectives to be achieved The policy framework to allow these objectives to be achieved is one that that takes a local air quality management approach. This is superimposed upon existing national and international regulations in order to effectively tackle local air quality issues as well as issues relating to wider spatial scales. National and EC policies which already exist provide a good basis for progress towards the air quality objectives set for 2003 to For example, the Environmental Protection Act 1990 allows for the monitoring and control of emissions from industrial processes and various EC Directives have ensured that road transport emission and fuel standards are in place. These policies are being developed to include more stringent controls. Developments in the UK include the announcement by the Environment Agency in January 2000 on controls on emissions of SO 2 from coal and oil fired power stations. This system of controls means that by the end of 2005 coal and oil fired power stations will meet the air quality standards set out in the AQS. Northern Ireland now has in place the Air Quality Limit Value regulation (NI) 2002, the Air Quality (Amended) Limit Value Regulations (NI) 2002 and the Air Quality (Ozone) Regulations (NI) The Government has recognised the problems associated with achieving the standard for ozone, a secondary pollutant and transboundary in nature and it is recognised that local authorities themselves can exert little influence on concentrations when they are the result of regional primary emission patterns. Northern Ireland now has in place the Air Quality (Ozone) regulations (NI) Local air quality management provides a strategic role for local authorities in response to particular air quality problems experienced at a local level. This builds upon current air quality control responsibilities and places an emphasis on bringing together issues relating to transport, waste, energy and planning in an integrated way. This integrated approach involves a number of different aspects. It includes the development of an appropriate local framework that allows air quality issues to be considered alongside other issues relating to polluting activity. It should also enable cooperation with and participation by the general public in addition to other transport, industrial and governmental authorities. An important part of the Strategy is the requirement for local authorities to carry out air quality reviews and assessments of their area against which current and future compliance with air quality standards can be measured. Over the longer term, these will also enable the effects of policies to be studied and therefore help in the development of future policy. The Government has prepared guidance to help local authorities to use the most appropriate tools and methods for conducting a review and assessment of air quality in their Borough. This is part of a package of guidance being prepared to assist with the practicalities of implementing the AQS. Other guidance covers air quality and land use planning, air quality and traffic management and the development of local air quality action plans and strategies. netcen 6

15 2.2.4 Timescales to achieve the objectives In most local authorities, objectives will be met for most of the pollutants within the timescale of the objectives shown in Table 2.2. It is important to note that the objectives for NO 2 remain provisional. 2.3 AIR QUALITY REVIEWS Technical guidance A range of Technical Guidance has been issued to enable air quality to be monitored, modelled, reviewed and assessed in an appropriate and consistent fashion. This includes the Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(03), and the previous version LAQM.TG4(00) May 2000, on : Pollutant Specific Guidance. This review and assessment has considered the procedures set out in the guidance Phased Approach The primary objective of undertaking a review of air quality is to identify any areas that are unlikely to meet air quality objectives and ensure that air quality is considered in local authority decision making processes. The complexity and detail required in a review depends on the risk of failing to achieve air quality objectives. At present District Councils are engaged in the 3 staged approach of review and assessment. The Stages are briefly described in Table 2.3. In this process a Stage 1 equates to an updating and Screening assessment, and a stage 2 and 3 equates to a detailed assessment. The latest technical guidance LAQM.TG(03) is based on the revised 2 step approach. The Steps are briefly described in Table 2.4. The department recommends that district councils where feasible should use the latest technical guidance LAQM.TG(03) to complete their first rounds of review and assessment. Where District councils have commenced using the old technical guidance (LAQM. TG (00)) they may continue using the old guidance. However the methodology should be cross-referenced with the new guidance Technical guidance for Armagh As Armagh had already embarked on the stage 3 review and assessment the domestic fuel grids assessed are 1x1km grids, as defined in (LAQM. TG (00)). Other than this however, the latest technical guidance LAQM.TG (03) has been used as the guidance document for the domestic fuel combustion modelling methodology and the road traffic assessment. In practice, the high resolution modelling and the method of source definition used in this report means that defining a 1x1km area makes no difference to the output when compared with a smaller total area. This is because the source within that is modelled the same as it would be if the area were over a smaller total area, for example; 500m x 500m. netcen 7

16

17 Table 2.3 Brief details of Stages in the Air Quality process Stage Objective Approach Outcome First Stage Review and Assessment Identify all significant pollutant sources within or outside of the authority s area. Compile and collate a list of potentially significant pollution sources using the assessment criteria described in the Pollutant Specific Guidance Identify those pollutants where there is a risk of exceeding the air quality objectives, and for which further investigation is needed. Identify sources requiring further investigation. Decision about whether a Stage 2 Review and Assessment is needed for one or more pollutants. If not, no further review and assessment is necessary. Second Stage Review and Assessment Further screening of significant sources to determine whether there is a significant risk of the air quality objectives being exceeded. Use of screening models or monitoring methods to assess whether there is a risk of exceeding the air quality objectives. Identify those pollutants where there is a risk of exceeding the objectives, and for which further investigation is needed. The assessment need only consider those locations where the highest likely concentrations are expected, and where public exposure is relevant. Decision about whether a Stage 3 Review and Assessment is needed for one or more pollutants. If, as a result of estimations of ground level concentrations at suitable receptors, a local authority judges that there is no significant risk of not achieving an air quality objective, it can be confident that an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) will not be required. However, if there is doubt that an air quality objective will be achieved a third stage review should be conducted. = ^b^=qéåüåçäçöó= = =V= =

18 Table 2.3 (contd.) Brief details of Stages in the first process Stage Objective Approach Outcome Third Stage Review and Assessment Accurate and detailed assessment of both current and future air quality. Assess the likelihood of the air quality objectives being exceeded. Use of validated modelling and quality-assured monitoring methods to determine current and future pollutant concentrations. Identify the geographical boundary of any exceedences, and description of those areas, if any, proposed to be designated as an AQMA. The assessment will need to consider all locations where public exposure is relevant. For each pollutant of concern, it may be necessary to construct a detailed emissions inventory and model the extent, location and frequency of potential air quality exceedences. Determine the location of any necessary Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). Once an AQMA has been identified, there are further sets of requirements to be considered. A further assessment of air quality in the AQMA is required within 12 months which will enable the degree to which air quality objectives will not be met and the sources of pollution that contribute to this to be determined. A local authority must also prepare a written action plan for achievement of the air quality objective. Both air quality reviews and action plans are to be made publicly available. = ^b^=qéåüåçäçöó= = =NM= =

19 Table 2.4 Brief details of Steps in the revised Air Quality process Level of Assessment Objective Approach Updating and Screening Assessment (USA) To identify those matters that have changed since the last review and assessment, which might lead to a risk of an air quality objective being exceeded. Detailed Assessment To provide an accurate assessment of the likelihood of an air quality objective being exceeded at locations with relevant exposure. This should be sufficiently detailed to allow the designation or amendment of any necessary AQMAs. Use a checklist to identify significant changes that require further consideration. Where such changers are identified, then apply simple screening tools to decide whether there is sufficient risk of an exceedence of an objective to justify a detailed assessment. Use quality-assured monitoring and validated modelling methods to determine current and future pollutant concentrations in areas where there is a significant risk of exceeding an air quality objective. = ^b^=qéåüåçäçöó= = =NN= =

20 2.4 LOCATIONS THAT THE REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT MUST CONCENTRATE ON For the purpose of review and assessment, the authority should focus their work on locations where members of the public are likely to be exposed over the averaging period of the objective. Table 2.4 summarises the locations where the objectives should and should not apply. Table 2.4 Typical locations where the objectives should and should not apply Averaging Period Pollutants Objectives should apply at Objectives should not generally apply at Annual mean 1,3 Butadiene Benzene Lead Nitrogen dioxide Particulate Matter (PM 10 ) All background locations where members of the public might be regularly exposed. Building facades of residential properties, schools, hospitals, libraries etc. Building facades of offices or other places of work where members of the public do not have regular access. Gardens of residential properties. Kerbside sites (as opposed to locations at the building facade), or any other location where public exposure is expected to be short term 24 hour mean and 8-hour mean Carbon monoxide Particulate Matter (PM 10 ) Sulphur dioxide All locations where the annual mean objective would apply. Kerbside sites (as opposed to locations at the building facade), or any other location where public exposure is expected to be short term. Gardens of residential properties. netcen 12

21 Table 2.4 (contd.) Typical locations where the objectives should and should not apply Averaging Period Pollutants Objectives should apply at Objectives should generally not apply at 1 hour mean Nitrogen dioxide Sulphur dioxide All locations where the annual mean and 24 and 8-hour mean objectives apply. Kerbside sites (e.g. pavements of busy shopping streets). Kerbside sites where the public would not be expected to have regular access. Those parts of car parks and railway stations etc. which are not fully enclosed. Any outdoor locations to which the public might reasonably expected to have access. 15 minute mean Sulphur dioxide All locations where members of the public might reasonably be exposed for a period of 15 minutes or longer. It is unnecessary to consider exceedences of the objectives at any location where public exposure over the relevant averaging period would be unrealistic, and the locations should represent non-occupational exposure. netcen 13

22 Key Points The Environment (Northern Ireland) Order 2002 has implemented an Air Quality Strategy for the control of air quality. A central element in the Strategy is the use of air quality standards and associated objectives based on human health effects that have been included in the Air Quality Regulations. The Strategy uses a local air quality management approach in addition to existing national and international legislation. It promotes an integrated approach to air quality control by the various actors and agencies involved. Air quality objectives, with the exception of ozone, are to be achieved by specified dates up to the end of A number of air quality reviews are required in order to assess compliance with air quality objectives. The number of reviews necessary depends on the likelihood of achieving the objectives netcen 14

23 3 Information used to support this assessment This chapter presents the information used to support this review and assessment. 3.1 INFORMATION PROVIDED BY ARMAGH CITY AND DISTRICT COUNCIL TO SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT The following information from Armagh City and District Council was used to complete this Review and Assessment: Local air quality monitoring data Domestic Fuel Combustion Survey Local Fuel Data Traffic flow and speed data Transport strategy Information on Quarries in the District Industrial and Transport Development in Armagh City and District Council Some developments may have an important impact on air quality in the future. Therefore they need to be included in the Stage 2. There are no developments that need to be considered in Armagh City and District Council area. 3.2 LOCAL AIR QUALITY MONITORING DATA Extent of data available Armagh City and District Council has carried out monitoring of nitrogen dioxide using diffusion tubes and continuous monitor and Sulphur Dioxide and PM 10 with a continuous monitor, see Appendix 1. Armagh City and District Council has also carried out Sulphur Dioxide monitoring using a bubbler for over 14 years. The pollutant specific chapters give more details about the local air quality monitoring Quality Assurance/Quality control of data The analyst laboratory used by Armagh City and District Council for NO 2 diffusion tubes was Harwell Scientifics but is currently Lambeth Scientific Services Ltd, which participate in the laboratory intercomparison exercises for the UK National NO 2 Diffusion Tube Network. The change of laboratory has been taken into account when analysing diffusion tube data. 3.3 TRAFFIC DATA Appendix 2 summarises the traffic information used in the assessment Armagh City and District Council supplied traffic counts based on the Roads Service Annual Traffic Census Report and projections to the relevant years. netcen 15

24 3.3.1 Flow and speed Armagh City and District Council provided traffic flow measurements at a range of locations within Armagh (Appendix 2). Average traffic speeds were also supplied Traffic growth The air quality objectives are targets for 2004 or The predicted increase in traffic flows for the years 2004 and 2005 relative to the date of traffic counts have been supplied by Armagh City and District Council Fraction of HGVs The model requires estimates of the fraction of HGVs on the roads to predict the pollutant concentrations. This data was available from Armagh City and District Council for some of the links and where it wasn't default figures from the NAEI were used Distance of the receptor from the centre of the road and the kerbside. The model used to predict the roadside concentrations requires estimates of the distance of the receptor from the centrepoint of the road. As a precautionary approach the minimum value permitted (2m) was entered into DMRB. 3.4 MAPS Armagh City and District Council provided maps of the grids to be modelled. 3.5 METEOROLOGICAL DATA USED IN THE DISPERSION MODELLING Hourly sequential data was obtained for 1999 from the Meteorological Office for the Aldergrove site for input into the ADMS dispersion model. This is the same year as the monitoring data available for PM 10. netcen 16

25 4 of Nitrogen Dioxide 4.1 INTRODUCTION Nitrogen oxides are formed during high temperature combustion processes from the oxidation of nitrogen in the air or fuel. The principal source of nitrogen oxides, (nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 )), collectively known as NO x, is road traffic, which is responsible for approximately half the emissions in Europe. NO and NO 2 concentrations are therefore greatest in urban areas where traffic is heaviest. Other important sources are power stations, heating plant and industrial processes. Nitrogen oxides are released into the atmosphere mainly in the form of NO, which is then readily oxidised to NO 2 by reaction with ozone. Elevated levels of NO x occur in urban environments under stable meteorological conditions, when the air mass is unable to disperse. Nitrogen dioxide has a variety of environmental and health impacts. It is a respiratory irritant, may exacerbate asthma and possibly increase susceptibility to infections. In the presence of sunlight, it reacts with hydrocarbons to produce photochemical pollutants such as ozone. In addition, nitrogen oxides have a lifetime of approximately 1 day with respect to conversion to nitric acid. This nitric acid is in turn removed from the atmosphere by direct deposition to the ground, or transfer to aqueous droplets (e.g. cloud or rainwater), thereby contributing to acid deposition Standards and objectives for nitrogen dioxide The air quality objectives for NO 2 are: An annual average concentration of 40 µg m -3 (21 ppb); to be achieved 31 st December µg m -3 (105 ppb) as an hourly average with a maximum of 18 exceedences in a year to be achieved 31 st December 2005 Modelling studies suggest that in general achieving the annual mean of 40 µg m -3 is more demanding than achieving the hourly objective. If the annual mean is achieved, the modelling suggests the hourly objectives will also be achieved The National Perspective All combustion processes produce some NO x, but only NO 2 is associated with adverse effects on human health. The main sources of NO x in the United Kingdom are road transport, which, in 2000 accounted for 42% of the emissions. In urban areas, the proportion of local emissions due to road transport sources is larger. The results of the analysis set out in the Air Quality Strategy suggest that for NO 2 a reduction in NO x emissions over and above that achievable by national measures will be required to ensure that air quality objectives are achieved everywhere by the end of Local authorities with major roads, or highly congested roads, which have the netcen 17

26 potential to result in elevated levels of NO 2 in relevant locations, are expected to identify a need to progress to the second or third stage review and assessment for this pollutant Background concentrations of Nitrogen dioxide The background concentrations for Armagh City and District Council have been taken from the netcen website An estimated NOx background concentration has been taken from the highest NOx value in the NAEI mapped dataset to provide a conservative estimate. Therefore a background NO x estimate of 14µg/m 3 has been estimated for 2005 in the Armagh City and District Council region Monitoring of nitrogen dioxide in Armagh City and District Council Monthly average concentrations of NO 2 have been measured with diffusion tubes at eight sites in Armagh City and District Council. The results for 2001 are summarised in Table 4.1. The monitoring period of 11 months is considered to be representative of a full year and can be compared with the annual mean objective. Analysis of the tubes was carried out by Harwell Scientifics Ltd. Harwell Scientifics was found to have a positive bias of 50.2% in 2001 relative to an automatic analyser (Intercomparison report still to be approved by DEFRA). Table 4.1. Annual average concentrations measured at locations in the Armagh City and District Council area (2001). Location 2001 Annual Corrected for Average µg/m 3 Lab Bias Projected to Railway St Site 1 k Bridge House Site 2 k Desert Lane Site 3 b Folly Lane Site 4 b Scotch St Site 5 k Victoria St Site 6 k LWR Irish St Site 7 k Portadown Rd Site 8 k K=kerbside 1-5m from a busy road B = background in a residential area more than 50 metres from a busy road. NB Table A1 analyses 2002 data The diffusion tubes placed at the kerbside locations do not exceed the annual mean standard for nitrogen dioxide of 40 µg/m 3. The diffusion tube measurements suggest that it is likely that the NO 2 annual mean objective will be met at this location by Impact of Road traffic on concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Armagh City and District Council The Stage one for Armagh City and District Council identified some road links as needing further study in a Stage two assessment. The concentrations at these kerbside locations were originally estimated using the original Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) using the traffic flow data provided by Armagh City and District Council. netcen 18

27 However this model was considered to overread in some cases and so when the new version of DMRB (Version 1.01) was made available in January 2003 the roads links were modelled again in the newer version which is considered to be more representative of actual concentrations. The effect of junctions has been taken into account in DMRB where traffic data have been provided. Traffic flow details are given in Appendix 2. The model has been used to predict nitrogen dioxide concentrations for Table 4.2. Nitrogen dioxide concentrations at roadside locations in the Armagh City and District council using supplied HGV data Road name Distance from link centre to receptor (m) AADT (combined, veh/day) 2005 Annual average speed (km/h) Total % HDV Predicted 2005 NO 2 (µg/m 3 ) A A A A A A A Urban A road Portadown Rd Drumadd Rd Victoria St Barrack St Railway St Lonsdale Rd Mall West Irish St In the previous version of DMRB annual average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in 2005 were predicted to be exceeded (40 µg m -3 or more) at three locations within the town. However, when run in the new DMRB version 1.01, there are no longer any predicted exceedences. This is in agreement with the diffusion tubes in Armagh and indicates the objective will be met Conclusions for nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Armagh City and District Council Emissions arising from road transport in Armagh City and District Council are not predicted to cause an exceedence of the air quality objective within the Armagh City and District Council region. netcen 19

28 5 Review and assessment of PM INTRODUCTION Airborne particulate matter varies widely in its physical and chemical composition, source and particle size. Particles are often classed as either primary (those emitted directly into the atmosphere) or secondary (those formed or modified in the atmosphere from condensation and growth). PM 10 particles (the fraction of particules in air size <10 µm aerodynamic diameter) can potentially pose significant health risks as they are small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs. Larger particles are not readily inhaled. A major source of fine primary particles is combustion processes, in particular diesel combustion, where transport of hot exhaust vapour into a cooler tailpipe or stack can lead to spontaneous nucleation of carbon particles before emission. Secondary particles are typically formed when low volatility products are generated in the atmosphere, for example the oxidation of sulphur dioxide to sulphuric acid. The atmospheric lifetime of particulate matter is strongly related to particle size, but may be as long as 10 days for particles of about 1 µm in diameter. Concern about the potential health impacts of PM 10 has increased very rapidly over recent years. Increasingly, attention has been turning towards monitoring the smaller particle fraction, PM 2.5, which is capable of penetrating deepest into the lungs, or to even smaller size fractions or total particle numbers Standards and objectives for particulate matter The Air Quality Strategy objectives to be achieved by 31 st December 2004 are: An annual average concentration of 40 µg m -3 (gravimetric); A maximum 24-hourly mean concentration of 50 µg m -3 (gravimetric) not to be exceeded more than 35 times a year The National Perspective National UK emissions of primary PM 10 have been estimated as totalling 172,000 tonnes in Of this total, around 18% was derived from road transport sources. It should be noted that, in general, the emissions estimates for PM 10 are less accurate than those for the other pollutants with prescribed objectives, especially for sources other than road transport. The Government established the Airborne Particles Expert Group (APEG) to advise on sources of PM 10 in the UK and current and future ambient concentrations. Their conclusions were published in January 1999 (APEG, 1999) 5. APEG concluded that a significant proportion of the current annual average PM 10 is due to the secondary formation of particulate sulphates and nitrates, resulting from the oxidation of sulphur and nitrogen oxides. These are regional scale pollutants and the annual concentrations do not vary greatly over a scale of tens of kilometres. There are also natural or semi-natural sources such as wind-blown dust and sea salt particles. The impact of local urban sources is superimposed on this regional background. Such local sources are generally netcen 20

29 responsible for winter episodes of hourly mean concentrations of PM 10 above 100 µg m -3 associated with poor dispersion. However, it is clear that many of the sources of PM 10 are outside the control of individual local authorities and the estimation of future concentrations of PM 10 are in part dependent on predictions of the secondary particle component. 5.2 ARMAGH CITY AND DISTRICT COUNCIL Background concentrations of PM 10 The background concentrations for Armagh City and District Council have been taken from the netcen website and estimated annual average background concentration for 2004 in Armagh City and District Council was 20 µg/m 3 or lower Armagh City and District Council - impact of Road traffic on PM 10 The Stage one for Armagh City and District Council identified some road links as needing further study in a Stage two assessment. The concentrations at these kerbside locations were originally estimated using the original Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB) using the traffic flow data provided by Armagh City and District Council. However this model was considered to overread in some cases and so when the new version of DMRB (Version 1.01) was made available in January 2003 the roads links were modelled again in the newer version which is considered to be more representative of actual concentrations. The effect of junctions has been taken into account in DMRB where traffic data have been provided. Traffic flow details are given in Appendix 2. The model has been used to predict PM 10 concentrations for Estimated traffic flows for 2005 have been used as this was the data supplied by the LA. In the context of exceedence of the objectives for 2004 then, as traffic counts are likely to be higher in 2005 than in 2004, it can be assumed that if the objective is met with 2005 traffic data it would certainly have been met with 2004 traffic data. Guidance LAQM.TG4(00) states that the 24-hour PM 10 objective is highly unlikely to be exceeded if the annual mean concentration is below 28 µg m -3, gravimetric. Table 5.1 shows the 2004 predictions for comparison to the objectives. For 2004, the method predicts annual average concentrations of PM 10 less than 28 µg m -3 at all of the locations modelled. Therefore it is predicted that there will be no exceedence of the objective. netcen 21