Tracking environmental changes effects on ecosystems using space for time

Transcription

1 Tracking environmental changes effects on ecosystems using space for time Cristina Branquinho

2 The time we living in

3 Increase in 2⁰C Increase in 2⁰C Acid Rain Acid Rain

4 Which type of Indicators should we use?

5 Ecosystem functioning is extremely complex and thus monitoring the effects of environmental change factors in ecosystems in an integrative perspective can make use of ecological indicators. Common ecological Indicators are based on biodiversity measures since they integrate the ecosystem functioning.

6 Mechanisms of transitions between ecosystems states and tipping points An ecosystem experiences a shift to a new state, with significant changes to biodiversity and the services to people it underpins, at a regional or global scale. Tipping points also have at least 1 of the following characteristics: The change becomes self perpetuating (deforestation reduces regional rainfall, which increases fire-risk, which causes forest dieback and further drying). There is a threshold beyond which an abrupt shift of ecological states occurs. early warning The changes are longlasting and hard to reverse. There is a significant time lag between the pressures and the appearance of impacts. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3.

7 Space for Time Many ecological dynamics occur over time-scales beyond the duration of conventional experiments or observations > 30 years. Space-for-time - Extrapolation of temporal dynamics from spatial variation. Is used in biodiversity modeling to infer past or future trajectories of ecological systems from contemporary spatial patterns (altitude, etc). The foundational assumption that drivers of spatial gradients also drive temporal changes is rarelytested.

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9 what organisms to use? key features dependent on climate available worldwide poikilohydric poikilothermic ubiquitous lichens symbiotic association between a fungus and algae or a cyanobacteria

10 what organisms to use? key features dependent from climate available worldwide poikilohydric poikilothermic ubiquitous lichens symbiotic association between a fungus and algae or a cyanobacteria lichens respond to global warming Changes between 1995 and 2001, however, appear positively correlated to both temperature and nutrient demand, indicating a recent and significant shift towards species preferring warm circumstances, independent, from, and concurrent with changes due to nutrient availability.

11 sorediate isidiate sexual crustose foliose fruticose cyanobacteria chlorococcoid Trentepohlia selecting 1 lichen traits that respond to climate selecting the traits traits functional groups climate photobiont growth form reproduction

12 Does biodiversity changed over time? species richness functional groups significant changes No. days relative humidity > 95% Trentepohlia crustose macrolichens microlichens

13 Spatial gradient? Climates most arid more winter rain more summer rain + temperature + P seasonality + aridity + winter P + P + summer P

14 Spatial gradients? looking to these two types of climate photobiont growth form size cy cyr tr cr fn fb fr ma mi more winter rain most arid cy - cyanolichens cyr - resistant cyanolichens tr - Trentepohlia cr - crustose fb - foliose broad fn - foliose narrow fr - fruticose ma - macrolichens mi - microlichens

15 Trends in air pollutants

16 Ceres et al., 2015 Study area. Maps of a) elevation and b) land use (CORINE land cover 2006) with sampling points in green dots. Main roads are represented by red lines and cities and the most important industries are labeled chemical plant (CP), oil-re fi nery (Re fi nery), the Sines thermal power plant (TPP) and the sewage treatment plant (STP).

17 Ceres et al., 2015 Spatial modeling of sulfur concentrations and isotopic signatures in lichens. Interpolation of a) S concentrations (%S) and b) isotopic values ( δ 34 S) in lichens, obtained by ordinary kriging interpolations. Artificial Areas and main roads are represented by red lines, green dots are the sampling points and main cities and industries are labeled. See SI Table S2 for kriging interpolation parameters. Table 1. Anthropogenic and marine 34 S values. Sulfur isotopic signatures characteristic of anthropogenic and marine sources obtained using biomonitors (mosses and lichens), air filters, water samples and flocculent material sampled from marine sediments close to a sewage discharge area (see Sweeney and Kaplan 36 ). Type of source Sample 34 S value Anthropogenic Cities and coal burning Epilithic mosses -0.5 to Thermal power plant Lichens Pulp and paper mill Lichens Sewage Flocculent material 0 36 Marine Ocean sulphate, SO4 Lichens b Air filters Seawater Water samples Dimethyl sulphide (DMS) Air filters c

18 (a) PCA with elevation and land-use variables that best correlated with S concentrations (%S) and isotopic values (δ34 S). (b) Interpolation of the factor scores on the first axis. Ceres et al., 2015 To detect the influence of land-use types other than Ocean on isotopic values ( δ 34 S), we interpolated the residuals from a) the relationship between the distance to the sea and δ34s for sample points

19 Trends in sulphur deposition measured using environment biomonitors Trends in air pollutants %S 2002 %S

20 Trends in sulphur deposition measured using environment biomonitors Trends in air pollutants 1 S(%) Change Total emmissions SUM_SO2(Ton\h)

21 Spatial scale

22 Temporal scale

23 Final Remarks 1) It is important to measure the impacts on ecosystems besides the drivers; 2) We should look to indicators that can be early-warning of environmental changes; 3) Space for time substitution is a useful approach to understand better which indicators to select; 4) A better knowledge on the spatial structure of the impacts at present time might be useful to predict better the phenomena in the future. 5) We need more time.to validate the spatial patterns

24 echanges: Ecologia das Alterações Ambientais Centro de Ecologia, Evolução e Alterações Ambientais Faculdade de Ciências Some of the topics of research are: Use biodiversity as a tool for the interpretation of environmental changes and management effects. Develop, test and model early warning ecological indicators of desertification. Adapt forest management to global change scenarios in drylands. Monitor and evaluate the impact of human activities and to contribute to its mitigation. Reduce the negative effects of urbanization while promoting human well-being and cities sustainability by improving functionality in green areas.

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26 Diagrammatic representation of some of the global change drivers, mediating drivers and biodiversity (pattern) responses in terrestrial ecosystems Within and between each of these levels, the global change drivers, mediating drivers and responses can interact and feed back to each other.

27 Caudais totais SUM_SO2(Ton\h) SUM_SO2(Ton\h)

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29 Does all species have the same value? Ecosystem Processes Biodiversity M. Scherer-Lorenzen, (2005), BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING: BASIC PRINCIPLES, in Biodiversity: Structure and Function, [Eds. Wilhelm Barthlott, K. Eduard Linsenmair, and Stefan Porembski], in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS),, Oxford,UK

30 Functional Diversity Potentially Universal Functional diversity: groups according to common response to the environment and/or common effects on ecosystem processes/functions Has been shown to relate with several environmental constraints (e.g. nutrient availability, grazing, fire, etc.) Independent from local communities composition - potential to be universal Díaz, S. & Cabido, M. (2001) Trends in Ecology & Evolution 16, Lavorel, S. et al. (2007) Plant Functional Types: Are We Getting Any Closer to the Holy Grail? Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. pp

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32 are functional groups responses universal? looking to these two types of climate Temperature is limiting Water is limiting

33 Productivity vs Limiting factors Adapted from Nemani, et al. (2003) Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to science, 300,

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36 are functional groups responses universal? is the response universal? the mechanism is transversal response is not universal they respond to the most limiting factors their response varies with limiting factor

37 Mechanisms of transitions between ecosystems states Transitions between states occur in many ecological systems states differ in their capacity to provide ecosystem services Abrupt and irreversible transitions are forecast to increase Scheffer, M. et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, Bestelmeyer, B.T. et al. (2011) Analysis of Abrupt Transitions in Ecological Systems. Ecosphere 2(12): 129.