Third Na)onal Climate Assessment Climate Change in the United States

Transcription

1 Third Na)onal Climate Assessment Climate Change in the United States Philip Mote Oregon State University NCA steering commi>ee member and author Date Name of Mee+ng

2 The NCA Process Inclusive, broader exper+se 300 authors Kathy Jacobs 60 member Federal Advisory Commi>ee Public engagement Listening sessions around the country Request for informa+on, input reports Focus on sustained assessment Intermediate products planned as well as quadrennial reports Date Name of Mee+ng

3 The NCA Process, con+nued New topics covered Oceans, Coasts, Urban, Rural, Land use Cross- sector links like Energy/Water/Land New format Digital products and interac+ve website Highlights, Global Change Info Service, traceable accounts Extensive Review Na+onal Academy of Sciences, agencies, public review, responses to all comments Date Name of Mee+ng

4 Human- induced climate change has moved firmly into the present Dave Mar+n/AP/Corbis Date Name of Mee+ng

5 Americans are already feeling the effects of increases in some types of extreme weather and sea level rise Stan Honda/AFP/Ge>y Images Date Name of Mee+ng

6 Impacts are apparent in every region and in important sectors including health, water, agriculture, energy, and more Date Name of Mee+ng Sco> Olson/Ge>y Images

7 There are many ac+ons we can take to reduce future climate change and its impacts and to prepare for the impacts we can t avoid Esperanza Stancioff, UMaine Extension and Maine Sea Grant Dennis Schroeder, NREL Date Name of Mee+ng

8 The World is Warming Numerous independent lines of evidence demonstrate that warming has con+nued. Because human- induced warming is super- imposed on a naturally varying climate, rising temperatures are not evenly distributed across the globe or over +me. Date Name of Mee+ng

9 Ten Indicators of A Warming World

10 from climate chapter

11 from climate chapter

12 Human ac+vity is the primary cause Tom Mihalek/Reuters/Corbis Date Name of Mee+ng Phillip J. Redman, U.S. Geological Survey

13 Carbon Emissions in the Industrial Age Date Name of Mee+ng

14 Final version pg 23

15 Future Climate Change Depends Primarily on Emissions Levels Date Name of Mee+ng Jim West/imagebroker/Corbis

16 Climate Change Impacts in the United States CHAPTER 21 NORTHWEST Convening Lead Authors Philip Mote, Oregon State University Amy K. Snover, University of Washington Lead Authors Susan Capalbo, Oregon State University Sanford D. Eigenbrode, University of Idaho Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation Jeremy Littell, U.S. Geological Survey Richard Raymondi, Idaho Department of Water Resources Spencer Reeder, Cascadia Consulting Group 16

17 21 NORTHWEST KEY MESSAGES 1. Changes in the timing of streamflow related to changing snowmelt are already observed and will continue, reducing the supply of water for many competing demands and causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. 2. In the coastal zone, the effects of sea level rise, erosion, inundation, threats to infrastructure and habitat, and increasing ocean acidity collectively pose a major threat to the region. 3. The combined impacts of increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are already causing widespread tree die-off and are virtually certain to cause additional forest mortality by the 2040s and long-term transformation of forest landscapes. Under higher emissions scenarios, extensive conversion of subalpine forests to other forest types is projected by the 2080s. 4. While the agriculture sector s technical ability to adapt to changing conditions can offset some adverse impacts of a changing climate, there remain critical concerns for agriculture with respect to costs of adaptation, development of more climate resilient technologies and management, and availability and timing of water. 17

18 Climate Change in the Northwest Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Edited by: Meghan M. Dalton Philip W. Mote Amy K. Snover 30 authors, 2+ countries, 601 review comments occri.net/reports

19 Dalton et al. Fig 2.5a

20 Changes in extreme precipitation (North American Climate Change Assessment Project) Dalton et al. Fig 2.9

21 Future climate Warming already underway; will be warmer in all seasons, how much is uncertain Beyond ~2040, amount of warming depends on GHG emissions now Precipitation changes likely to be indistinguishable from natural variability, except possibly drying summers Summer likely to warm more than other seasons

22 Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds NCA Fig 21.1

23 NCA Fig 21.2b

24 like NCA Fig 21.2a Dello, OCCRI; Hamlet, UW

25 water Effects of warming already apparent in many basins: earlier snowmelt, lower summer flow Largest future changes in summer flow will be in mild snowy basins

26 Fig 21.3

27

28 Risks to forests Fig 21.7a

29 For 2.2 F global warming Fig 21.7b

30 Main concerns Loss of timber production Loss of subalpine forests Air quality - health effects

31 Agriculture Longer growing season Drought stress CO 2 fertilization Chilling requirements Pests

32 Impacts on agriculture Other%products,%%$0.6%% Poultry%and%eggs,%%$0.3%% Nursery,%% $1.4%% Milk%and%dairy,%%$3.1%% Direct%heat%stress%effects%on% the%animals% Changes%in%forage%quality% CO 2 %fernlizanon%benefits% Reduced%availability%of%water% for%irriganon% Other%crops%% and%hay,%%$1.9%% Vegetables,%%$1.9%% Ca1le%and%calves,%%$2.9%% Grains,% oilseeds,%dry% beans,%%$2.1%% Fruits,%% nuts%and%berries,%%% $2.6%% Heat%and%drought%stress% Changes%in%precipitaNon% regimes%that%affect%farming% operanons% CO 2 %fernlizanon%benefits% Reduced%availability%of%water% for%irriganon% Heat%and%drought%stress,% changes%in%precipitanon%regimes% Effects%on%chilling%regimes,%pests% and%diseases% CO 2 %fernlizanon%benefits% Reduced%availability%of%water%for% irriganon% Dalton et al. Fig 6.3

33 Health effects of climate: pathways Heat related illness and death Effects of extreme weather Air pollution Effects of pollution Climate Weather Pollen Allergic diseases Microbial contamination and transmission Infectious diseases Water-, food-, and vectorborne diseases Crop yield Food insecurity adapted from Haines and Patz (2004) adaptation Dalton et al. Fig 7.1

34 Observed effects Oregon Health Authority study: 10 F higher temps -> 3x more heat related effects Wind storms: Columbus Day 46 fatalities, December Wildfires (CA): more hospitalizations from respiratory problems

35 Tribal dimensions Connections to land and resources recognized in treaty: usual & accustomed Unique challenges with climate change: resources changing, but are viewed more significantly than by the dominant culture Climate adaptation efforts (e.g. Swinomish)

36 Conclusions We are moving rapidly to an unfamiliar environment Both risks and benefits of change - minimize risks and maximize benefits if change is slow, consequences are anticipated Sustained process of analysis, engagement, and action required

37 not part of any Climate Assessment reports