Climate Change Impact Research

Transcription

1 University of Applied Sciences Eberswalde Master Study Program Global Change Management Manfred Stock Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Module: Climate Change Impact Research June Lecture 5 topical 1: new WBGU report Climate Change and Security topical 2: new IPCC report AR4 and Working Group II Discussions Vulnerability and Adaptation Climate Change Impact Research

2 WBGU Report "Climate Change as a Security Risk" PRESS RELEASE Report "Climate Change as a Security Risk" Climate change threatens international stability and security Berlin, 6 June The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) will today, at the start of the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, submit its report "Climate Change as a Security Risk". Climate-induced conflict constellations Regional hotspots Unstable multipolarity: The international policy setting of climate change Six threats to international stability and security Overstretching the capacities of the global governance system Climate Change Impact Research

3 Security risks associated with climate change: Selected hotspots. Climate Change Impact Research

4 WBGU Recommendations Fostering a cooperative setting for a multipolar world Initiative 1: Shaping global political change Initiative 2: Reforming the United Nations Climate policy as security policy I: Preventing conflict by avoiding dangerous climate change Initiative 3: Ambitiously pursuing international climate policy Initiative 4: Implementing the energy turnaround in the EU Initiative 5: Developing mitigation strategies through partnerships Climate policy as security policy II: Preventing conflict by implementing adaptation strategies Initiative 6: Supporting adaptation strategies for developing countries Initiative 7: Stabilizing fragile states and weak states that are additionally threatened by climate change Initiative 8: Managing migration through cooperation and further developing international law Initiative 9: Expanding global information and early warning systems Financing the initiatives Avoiding dangerous climate change Adaptation to unavoidable climate change Financing international conflict prevention If climate protection fails: Strategies in the event of destabilization and conflict Climate Change Impact Research

5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1. UN-Klimabericht UN-Klimabericht UN-Klimabericht UN-Klimabericht Feb. Paris: I. Aktueller Stand der naturwissenschaftlichen Erkenntnisse zum Klimawandel 06.Apr. Brüssel: II. Risiken und Anpassungsstrategien 04.Mai Bangkok: III. Optionen zur Verminderung von Treibhausgasemissionen und Globaler Erwärmung 17.Nov. Valencia. IV. Synthese Climate Change Impact Research

6 Other gases are important as well as CO2 Climate Change Impact Research

7 Future emissions will grow further With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades IPCC SRES scenarios: % increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 2000 Climate Change Impact Research

8 Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 % Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor Climate Change Impact Research

9 Increase of Global Mean Surface Temperature Climate Change Impact Research

10 Working Group II The contribution to the Fourth Assessment "Impacts of observed climate change" Many natural systems on all continents and some oceans affected by regional climate change, rising temperatures We conclude that warming caused by human activities has likely had a discernible impact on the global level on many physical and biological systems some first results see Lecture 1 Climate Change Impact Research

11 Structure of WGII Two Co-Chairs: Martin Parry, UK Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina Six Vice-Chairs One TSU with four full-time staff Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus Contributing Authors Four Lead Author Meetings Climate Change Impact Research

12 Klimawandel : Temperatur, Physik, Biologie 4. UN-Klimabericht 2007: Climate Change Impact Research

13 Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios Climate Change Impact Research

14 Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year ( minus ) 50 o N 45 o N 40 o N 35 o N 30 o N A2a scenario 10 o W 0 o 10 o E 20 o E 30 o E 40 o E A2a A2a: Longer by days in centre and south east 10 days shorter over northern Europe 50 o N 45 o N 40 o N 35 o N B2a B2a: Smaller changes than A2a wetter Eastern Med o N 10 o W 0 o 10 o E 20 o E 30 o E 40 o E Climate Change Impact Research

15 Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total ( minus ) 50 o N 45 o N 40 o N 35 o N 30 o N A2a scenario 10 o W 0 o 10 o E 20 o E 30 o E 40 o E A2a: Lower intensity, by mm, in future, particularly in west Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic 50 o N 45 o N 40 o N B2a: Smaller changes than A2a 35 o N -20 Clearly higher intensity in Italy 30 o N 10 o W 0 o 10 o E 20 o E 30 o E 40 o E -40 Climate Change Impact Research

16 CET MAX HadCM3(A2) HadCM2(gg) HadCM3(B2) CET MAX with East England HadCM3(A2), HadCM2(gg), and HadCM3(B2) Temperature Climate Change Impact Research

17 What are the implications for European urban areas? Climate Change Impact Research

18 Impacts Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers Heat stress Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution Coastal cities and tidal surge Implications of increased wind storm Climate Change Impact Research

19 90000 y = x x R 2 = 0.67 All cause death rate number of deaths C Strongest associations with temperature are between August and March In November, 64% of the variance in the death rate is explained by temperature The reduction in the death rate due to a 1 degc increase in temperature and a 10mm decrease in rainfall is in the range 1-3% Deaths per day and mean temperatures in July All months r 2 = 0.67 Deaths per day Mean temperature in degrees C. Climate Change Impact Research

20 Adaptation Through design: Of urban spaces Of buildings Through behaviour Use of the outdoor environment Transport policies Air conditioning Climate Change Impact Research

21 Climate Change Impact Research

22 What about surprises/abrupt climate change? Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting of the Greenland ice cap Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven t thought of Climate Change Impact Research

23 IPCC Reasons For Concern TAR Reasons For Concern Proposed AR4 Reasons For Concern 2º C Guardrail Climate Change Impact Research

24 Working Group II AR4 Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability Climate Change Impact Research

25 Climate Change Impact Research