Visionary Partnerships for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Visionary Partnerships for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change By Dr R K Pachauri Director-General, TERI & Chairman, IPCC 60 th Annual DPI/NGO Conference United Nations, New York 7 th September 2007

2 2 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate Years /decade

3 Precipitation (rain & snow) is variable but there is evidence for systematic change Precipitation has increased in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia and decreased in the Sahel, Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. 3 Increases Decreases

4 More heavy precipitation and more droughts.

5 Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level 5 Average rate of sea level rise: : 1.8 mm /yr : 3.1 mm /yr

6 6 Paleoclimatic perspective Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years Last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level rise.

7 7 Understanding and attributing climate change Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR s conclusion that most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns

8 Glacier mass balance 8 Cumulative loss of glacier mass in many regions During the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps have experienced widespread mass losses and have contributed to sea level rise.

9 9 Threat to living species A temperature increase of1.5 C C over present, would put 20% - 30% of higher plants and animals at high risk of extinction

10 10 Some systems and sectors are very vulnerable Some ecosystems: Coral reefs; sea-ice regions Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions Low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry Tropics Low-latitude agriculture Human health where adaptive capacity is low

11 Summary Impacts on of agriculture key points 11 Crop production Crop responses depend on latitude High latitude: production increases with 1-3 C rise in local mean temp, decreases above 1-3 C rise. Low latitude: production decreases with 1-2 C rise in local mean temperatures Increased drought/flood frequency affect esp. subsistence sectors at low latitudes Globally, production increases as local mean temperature rises up to 1-3 C, then decreases

12 Maize 12

13 Wheat 13

14 Impacts on food prices by global temperature increases 14 3

15 Some regions will be more affected than others 15 The Arctic Sub-Saharan Africa Small islands Asian megadeltas

16 Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change 16

17 17 Article 2 of UNFCCC The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

18 Climate change could impede nations abilities to achieve sustainable development (Ch 3) 18

19 Projections of future changes in climate Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation less confidence in decrease of total number Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns Source: IPCC 19

20 20 Current knowledge about future impacts Africa By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. Asia Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and affect water resources within the next two to three decades Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia due to projected changes in hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increase in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

21 21 Time scales Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.

22 22 Need for adaptation Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

23 23 Vulnerability and adaptation Some adaptation is occurring now, but it is limited and faces barriers Vulnerability can be exacerbated by other stresses Vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development paths; sustainable development can reduce vulnerability Mitigation can reduce, delay or avoid impacts.

24 Projections of future changes in climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8 C (likely range is 1.1 C to 2.9 C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0 C (likely range is 2.4 C to 6.4 C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable Source: IPCC 24

25 What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? 25 Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages Trajectories towards stabilization levels (ppm CO 2 -eq) Median GDP reduction[1] (%) Range of GDP reduction [2] (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3] (percentage points) < < [4] Not available < 3 < 0.12 [1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2] The median and the 10 th and 90 th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in [4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

26 26 Illustration of cost numbers GDP GDP without mitigation 80% 77% GDP with stringent mitigation current ~1 year Time

27 27 Long term mitigation (after 2030) Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Stab level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global Mean temp. increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year CO 2 needs to peak Year CO 2 emissions back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 CO 2 emissions compared to to to to to to to +140

28 28 How can emissions be reduced? Sector Energy Supply Transport Buildings (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and airco; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and aplliances

29 29 Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings. Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

30 An effective carbon-price signal could realize significant mitigation potential in all sectors 30 Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-ghg products, technologies and processes. Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if induced technological change happens) At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

31 31 Mitigation until 2030 In order to stabilize the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, emissions would need to peak and decline thereafter. The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and decline would need to occur. Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels The range of stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available and those that are expected to be commercialised in coming decades. This assumes that appropriate and effective incentives are in place for development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion of technologies and for addressing related barriers Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-ghg products, technologies and processes. Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation

32 32 Quotations For the sake of picturesqueness, I am tempted to call the open economy the cowboy economy, the cowboy being symbolic of the illimitable plains and also associated with reckless, exploitative, romantic, and violent behavior, which is characteristic of open societies. The closed economy of the future might similarly be called the spaceman economy, in which the earth has become a single spaceship, without unlimited reservoirs of anything, either for extraction or for pollution. Kenneth Boulding Eminent Economist Automobiles driven by batteries charged by the sun s energy are cheaper both in terms of scarce low entropy and healthy conditions a reason why I believe they must, sooner or later, come about. Nicholas Georgescu Roegen

33 A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic Be the failures change expose you want systemic to see deficiencies, in the world distortion and self-deceptions Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures. 33