By Magdalena A K Muir, Kyle Leinweber, Alfonso Rivera & Andres Arandav

Transcription

1 Baja California Sur Aquifer, Renewable Energy, and Desalination Project: Preliminary Assessment of Water Resources for Los Cabosand La Paz Municipalities By Magdalena A K Muir, Kyle Leinweber, Alfonso Rivera & Andres Arandav A Fulbright Research Presentation and Discussion with Municipality of Los Cabosand Centro Mario Molina and SCI Energy Lab on March 24, 2014

2 Presentation and Discussion 1.Overview of Baja California Sur Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project 2.Energy and water nexus in Baja region 3.Baja California Sur precipitation, aquifers and hydraulic sub-basins maps 4.Aquifers and other water resources and sustainability for quantity and quality 5.Presentation by Centro Mario Molina on water resource calculation methodology 6.Discussion of presentation 7. Possible next steps

3 Energy and Water Nexus Baja California Sur is arid region that relies on precipitation for water resources. This precipitation becomes groundwater and is collected in different aquifers. There is a public desalination concession in Los Cabos(2006). A second desalination concession has been proposed for Los Cabos, and an initial concession has been proposed for La Paz. Many hotels, golf courses and marinas have private desalination and waste water treatment. Most electricity is generated from diesel. While water resources and desalination are required to support economic growth, renewable energy has a role in those water resources.

4 Baja California Sur Precipitation 1971 to 2000

5 Baja California Sur Precipitation 2011

6 Baja California Sur Hydrologic Sub-basins

7 Baja California Sur State Aquifers

8 Baja California Sur Aquifers Further knowledge required of capacity and dimensions of aquifers for the Municipalities of Los Cabosand La Paz, including issues such as whether the aquifers are connected as aquifer systems. Sustainability of aquifer and aquifer systems can be considered for quantity factors (i.e., flow volumes, recharge, discharge, time, scale, permeability, storage, pressure). Sustainability of the aquifers and aquifer based on quality (i.e., land-based and coastal contamination, saline intrusion, and diffusion through aquifers and possibly connected aquifer systems).

9 Baja California Sur Study Region: Los Cabos and La Paz Municipalities

10 Geology of Baja California Study Region

11 Aquifers in Municipality of Los Cabos.

12 San Jose del Cabo: Surface land use and possible contamination of San Jose Aquifer San Jose del Cabo

13 Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality Los CabosMunicipality receives water from a desalination project operated under a concession. Private desalination used to meet all or part of water demand for many hotels, resorts, golf courses and marinas located in CabosSan Lucas, San Jose Del Cabos, and the tourism corridor between these two urban centers.

14 Private Desalination in Los Cabos Municipality

15 La Paz Basin and Elavation Map

16 La Paz Basin Geology Model

17 La Paz Basin Precipitation Model

18 Las Paz Basin Distribution of Recharge Areas

19 Aquifers in Municipality of La Paz

20 La Paz Aquifers La Paz Aquifer in basin to the south and south east of Municipality of La Paz. The precipitation model shows that the heaviest precipitation occurs in higher areas away from coast. Precipitation runoff will flow towards the lower lands near La Paz. Best area for groundwater in basin may be in southeast fractured granite. Vulnerability to saline intrusion in coastal areas of La Paz basin.

21 Proposed Gold Mining Projects in Sierra De La Luna Mountains and Aquifer/Basin Implications Estimated 1.7 million ounces of gold, worth more than $2 billion. Argonaut Gold San Antonio mine is largest with surface area of 46,000 hectares. Open pit heap leach mine with 7 hills tops and 200 M tonnes rock processed. 50 M tonnes rock to be processed with cyanide, 150 M tonnes piled in exposed hills. Naturally occurring arsenic in rock. Water concessions from nearby ranches, or use groundwater, seawater or desalinated water.

22 Argonaut Gold San Antonio Mining Concession

23 San Antonio Mine and Aquifer Impacts Historic mining and contamination in mountains and San Juan de Los Planes basin. Size and nature of proposed gold mining operations immense. San Juan de Los Planes is nearby agricultural region, and possible contamination risks for aquifer. Possible risks to La Paz Aquifer? Could it affect San Jose Aquifer?

24 Concept San Lucas Aquifer (1) (Mm 3 /Yr) San Jose Aquifer(2) (Mm 3 /Yr) Santiago Aquifer(2) (Mm 3 /Yr) Average recharge Committed natural discharge Volume of ground water concession Volume extracted in technical study Average available groundwater Deficit (5.909) 0 Future authorized concession Future deficit 12.74* (7.9)* Table re Possible Available Groundwater in Los Cabos Municipality The table is based on 1 IMPLAN LOS CABOS (May 4 th 2012), and 2 Segunda Actualizacion del Plan Director de Desarrollo Urbano, San Jose Del Cabo y Cabo San Lucas B.C.S.2040 (Abril 2013). The table also does not address the sustainability of the aquifers, or quality issues in relation to these aquifers. * Based on previously authorized concession for Cabo Cortez resort, 35% of whose water needs were proposed to be met by the aquifer, and 65% be met by privately owned desalination. Though this resort was cancelled in 2011, a subsequent similar proposal has been made so this number is included to illustrate possible future water uses for this aquifer.

25 Centro Mario Molina Background The Mario Molina Center is a bridge of practical solutions between science and public policies on energy and the environment to foster sustainable development The Mario Molina Center for Strategic Studies on Energy and Environment is a non-profit independent association, constituted in 2004 to give continuity and consolidate in Mexico the activities that throughout his life, Professor Mario Molina has accomplished. Its main purpose is to find practical, realistic and in-depth solutions to problems related with protecting the environment, the use of energy and prevention of climate change, in order to foster sustainable development. Promoting sustainable The target is to achieve urban policies to boost sustainable planning and economic growth socially management of cities, urban equitable and development promoting low environmentally carbon intensity schemes, responsible. rational use of natural resources, particularly water and energy.

26 I.2 Methodology (determination of gaps) Interpretation of results Availability calculated (theoretical) D = Mm 3 /yr Availability reported (real) D = 34.5 Mm 3 /yr Availability calculated Availability reported The production (extraction) values reported by the OO are greater than the volumes obtained following the methodology of calculation of CONAGUA. Surface water is not likely to benefit in full, however, to establish a baseline was considered the theoretical value obtained from the calculation methodology. Even when there is no water available in the aquifer, we continue drawing water to supply the city. Availability = Vol REPDA + D surface

27 I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps) Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city( D%) considering climate change scenarios. Changes in water availability scenario A2 Year Period[yr] Availability Mm 3 D [Mm 3 ] D [%] % % % % Water availability Mm Year TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. /

28 I.2. Methodology(determination of gaps) Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city( D%) considering climate change scenarios. Changes in water availability scenario A2 Year Period[Years] Availability theoretical[mm 3 ] D [Mm 3 ] D theoretical(%) % % % % Wateravailability[Mm 3 ] TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. /

29 I.2. Methodology (determination of gaps) Analysis bases (variation of water availability To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical D% for each year to the amount of water producedbytheooin2010. Variation of availability A1B scenario Los Cabos Year D(%) AvailabilityM m * % % % % % % Variation of availability A2 scenario Los Cabos Year D(%) AvailabilityM m * % % % % % % Mm 3 *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OOMSAPAS Variation in the availability of scenario cc To calculate the gap variation, it was considered the availability of the more adverse scenario (in this case A2). A2 A1B

30 I.2. Methodology(determination of gaps) Basis of analysis (demand calculation) Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO Los Cabos (OOMSAPAS),itwascalculatedthewaterdemand[Mm 3 /year] PARAMETER UNIT Year Population Inhab. 253, , , ,616 Drinking water coverage % 89.90% 90.80% 91.70% 92.50% Annual production l/s 1,172 1,313 1,486 1,640 Annualproduction Mm 3 /año Endowment l/inhab*día consumption l/inhab*día Annual increase in population inhab. 5,133 5,686 6,298 6,976 Required extraction l/s Variation of drinking water coverage % 89.86% 90.85% 91.74% 92.54%

31 I.2. Methodology(determination of gaps) Analysis bases (variation of water availability) With the calculated values was obtained varying the availability for each city( D%) considering climate change scenarios. Changes in water availability scenario A2 Year Period[Years] Availability theoretical[mm 3 ] D [Mm 3 ] D theoretical(%) % % % % Wateravailability[Mm 3 ] TAAF Consultoría Integral S.C. /

32 I.2. Methodology(determination of gaps) Analysis bases (variation of water availability) To obtain the variation of the actual availability of water, it was applied the theoretical D% for each year to the amount of water producedbytheooin2013. Variation of availability A1B scenario La Paz Year D [%] Availability[Mm 3 ] Variation in the availability of scenario cc * % % % % Variation of availability A2 scenario La Paz Year D [%] Availability[Mm 3 ] * % % % % *Quantity of water produced according to information provided by the OO SAPA Mm Año Disponibilidad (A2) Disponibilidad (A1B) To calculate the gap variation, it was considered the availability of the more adverse scenario (in this case A2).

33 I.2. Methodology(determination of gaps) Basis of analysis (demand calculation) Based on population growth scenarios, endowment per day and drinking water coverage provided by the OO La Paz (SAPA),itwascalculatedthewaterdemand[Mm 3 /year] Year PARAMETER UNIT Population inhab. 235, , , ,609 Drinking water coverage % 97.50% 97.90% 98.20% 98.40% Annual production l/s 953 1,106 1,283 1,489 Annualproduction Mm 3 /año Endowment l/inhab*day consumption l/inhab*day Annual increase in population Inhab. 6,897 8,003 9,287 10,777 Required extraction l/s Variation of drinking water coverage % 97.52% 97.86% 98.16% 98.41%

34 I.2 Methodology(determination of gaps) Results 50.0 Gaps Mm % % 47 % % Demanda anual Disponibilidad (A2) Gaps

35 II. 1 Identifying actions(benchmarking) Puerto Peñasco Micrometering(%) La Paz Celaya Mazatlán Tecate Puerto Vallarta Saltillo Los Cabos National average coverage 47.4% CONAGUA Información PIGOO 2011 Expenditure on water(rate of 20 m 3 ) $ $ $/month $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $67.50 $50.00 $0.00 Information PIGOO 2011 Mazatlán Puerto Vallarta Puerto Peñasco Saltillo Celaya Tecate Los Cabos La Paz

36 Baja California Aquifer Renewable Energy Desalination Project: Possible Next Steps Develop further understanding of aquifers and other water sources for Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz. Explore desalination and waste water treatment projects, and role of renewable energy, in public and private projects in Municipalities of Los Cabos and La Paz.

37 Acknowledgements for Presentation IMPLAN Los Cabosfor digital maps, data, and information. Centro Mario Molina for slides and presentation on water resources. Managing Arroyos in Los Cabos by SCI Affiliated Researcher Eric Porse, in cooperation with IMPLAN Los Cabos.

38 For further information contact: Dr. Magdalena A K Muir (mamuir@ucalgary.ca) Associate Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia Climate Center at Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City, Visiting Scholar, Center Carbon-free Power Integration and Mangone Center for Marine Policy, University of Delaware, Research Associate, Arctic Institute of North America Associate Professor, Aarhus University & Centre for Energy Technologies This presentation and research supported by Fulbright Canada under the Fulbright Canada-RBC Award; the Columbia Climate Center at the Earth Institute, Columbia University; the Center for Carbon-free Power Integration and the Mangone Center for Marine Policy in the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware; and Aarhus University Herning and the Center for Energy Technologies.