Inception Report Covering the project activities from 01/10/2010 to 31/05/2011

Transcription

1 LIFE Project Number LIFE09 ENV/FI/ Inception Report Covering the project activities from 01/10/2010 to 31/05/2011 Reporting Date 01/07/2011 Participatory monitoring, forecasting, control and socioeconomic impacts of eutrophication and algal blooms in River Basin Districts (GisBloom) Project location Data Project Helsinki, Finland Project start date: 01/10/2010 Project end date: 30/09/2013 Total budget EC contribution: (%) of eligible costs 49,25 % Data Beneficiary Name Beneficiary Suomen ympäristökeskus (SYKE) Contact person Mr Olli Malve Postal address Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O.Box 140, FI Helsinki Telephone direct n Fax: direct n Project Website olli.malve@ymparisto.fi

2 Table of contents List of key-words and abbreviations Executive summary General progress Assessment as to whether the project objectives and work plan are still viable Problems encountered Administrative part Technical part Actions... 7 Action 1 Project management... 7 Action 2 Collation, analysis and demonstration of algal bloom data Action 3 Demonstration of eutrophication and algal bloom responses to management and restoration measures and socio-economic impacts Action 4 Demonstration of tools to river basin districts and local management projects Action 5 Synthesis and dissemination Envisaged progress until next report Action 1 Project management Action 2 Collation, analysis and demonstration of algal bloom data Action 3 Demonstration of eutrophication and algal bloom responses to management and restoration measures and socio-economic impacts Action 4 Demonstration of tools to river basin districts and local management projects Action 5 Synthesis and dissemination Financial part Putting in place of the accounting system Continued availability of co financing Costs incurred Annexes Organogram of the project team and the project management structure Deliverables Dissemination materials The presentation of progress of the project using a Gantt-chart Partnership agreement List of key-words and abbreviations River basin management, participatory, monitoring, modeling, forecasting, water framework directive, socio-economic impacts, cost efficiency, eutrophication, algal blooms Progress report LIFE+ 2

3 1. Executive summary 1.1. General progress The GisBloom project was launched and the project management structure was set up on 1 st of October Partners and personnel were gathered to the kick off workshop on 26 th of November. A comprehensive network was build and the Symposium on CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES IN RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT was co-organized together with WaterPraxis project on th January 2011 in Oulu (Finland). Additional pilot areas were named. The project will be implemented in three steps (Figures 1 and 2), which started simultaneously. Data Analyses 1. Collation and Analyses of Data GIS Data Base Management Scenarios Models and Web Services Climate Scenarios 2. Implementation of Models, Tools and Services Ecological and Socio- Economic Forecasts and Impact Estimates Public Understanding, Motivation and Skills 3. Demonstration in River Basin Management Cost-Efficient Implementation of Management Good Ecological Status and Usability of Water Body Olli Malve, SYKE Figure 1. Implementation of GisBloom project in three steps. Collation of data into a GisBloom map server (Step 1) was started and soon, data will be available in map server for internal usage and later on in WWW, for river basin managers and stakeholders. The functionality and implementation of models, map services and assessment tools were defined (Step 2) and feed-back from pilot areas were gathered (Step 3). Based on it, the content and functionality of models, map service and assessment methods were respecified and their implementation was started. The analyses of loading and algal responses in lakes, estuaries and catchment areas were started and first results were reported (Step1). The first version of LakeWiki was released (Step 3) to collect algae bloom observations of citizens. The real time algal bloom model and tools for climate and land use scenarios were implemented and the delivery of real time bloom predictions was launched. Socio-economic impacts were studied and modelled in two pilot areas. The basic dissemination material, i.e. www-pages and posters, were published. Progress report LIFE+ 3

4 Figure 2.The main actions of GisBloom project. Eight themes (Table 1 and Figure 3) were launched based on the actions and information needs of pilot areas to reinforce and streamline the co-operation between the actions and the pilot areas. Several workshops were arranged. Table 1. Themes of demonstration Theme Name Content Pilot areas Actions In charge GIS database and 2.5 A) services GIS B) Conceptual models C) Diffuse loading D) Internal loading E) Algae models Understanding and communicating causes of eutrophication (and measures?) trough e.g. conceptual models Loading effects of land use (agriculture): Modelling and evaluating diffuse loading The effects of internal loading: measuring, modelling and evaluating The development of state of lakes and coastal waters: modelling and predicting eutrophication (e.g. LLR) Saving, handling and analysing data, modelling and internet services Charts about progression of algalblooming Modelling and predicting diffuse loading Measuring, modelling and evaluating internal loading Modelling and predicting eutrophication and bloomingresponces Hiidenvesi Vanajavesi Pien-Saimaa Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Temmesjoki Pien-Saimaa Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Pyhäjärvi Temmesjoki Pien-Saimaa Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Pien-Saimaa Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Pyhäjärvi Temmesjoki Pien-Saimaa (3.1.1 & 3.1.2) Timo Pyhälahti Sari Väisänen Bertel Vehviläinen Olli Malve Bertel Vehviläinen Progress report LIFE+ 4

5 F) Economical evaluation G) www sevices H) Classification Evaluating costefficient measures: Cost-benefit analyses Dissemination and participatory water management: Internet services (Lake Wiki and "Water Network") Evaluating the state of lakes and coastal waters without monitoring data: Ecological classification according to model results Modelling and predicting costs and benefit Developing Internet services for water management from the products of the project Classifying water bodies left out side the monitoring programmes Hiidenvesi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Temmesjoki Karvianjoki Pien-Saimaa Paimionjoki Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Temmesjoki Karvianjoki Pien-Saimaa Hiidenvesi Vesijärvi Lapuanjoki Vanajavesi Karvianjoki Pien-Saimaa Mika Marttunen Matti Lindholm Olli Malve Figure 3. The operation and interaction of themes in the demonstration of GisBloom tools in river basin management. During the six following months the next monitoring report (1 st of October 2011) will be produced. More data from pilot areas will be loaded to the map server. Loading and algal bloom responses will be analyzed using tools based of data and the models and the assessment methods will embedded in the map server. The functioning of map server will be further developed, implemented and tested in order to provide managers, stakeholders and public with participatory tools (toolbox) for the planning of cost efficient program of measures. Resulting material will be published in LakeWiki and demonstrated in pilot areas for the first time. Based on feed-back from pilot areas and from the users of LakeWiki, knowledge and information gaps will be identified (reported) and the functioning and content of map services (toolbox) will be re-specified and re-formulated (Figure 3). Progress report LIFE+ 5

6 1.2. Assessment as to whether the project objectives and work plan are still viable The objective of the project is to demonstrate model and data based tools for the identification of cost efficient program of measures in river basin management. The comprehensive work plan is still viable and no changes to the project objectives and to the work plan are necessary Problems encountered No problems or difficulties were encountered or foreseen. Thus, project will be implemented in schedule. 2. Administrative part The project's management structure has been fixed and partnership agreement was signed. A consultancy contract was signed with Serge Paquet (hereinafter referred to as the Contractor) whose registered office is situated in Canada, address: 3507 rue Chapdoré, Montréal, Canada. The Contractor undertakes to carry out the following duties: He will be in charge of statistical support in the data analysis of sub-action 2.1 (tasks and 2.1.3), including consultation and support of statistical analysis in the interpretation of relationships between algal blooms in lakes and environmental variables, and writing article(s) on the results together with Marko Järvinen, Petri Porvari & Sari Mitikka. He will also author one to two articles on the analysis results together with Marko Järvinen, Petri Porvari & Sari Mitikka. The figure of organogram is in annex 4.1. The reports which have been delivered since the start of the project are given in table 2. Table 2. Deliverables submitted (in annex 5.2). Name of the Deliverable Code of the associated action Deadline Metadata report on the available phytoplankton data from lakes Plan for internal and external communication Report of the factors determining algal bloom occurrence in lakes based on the analysis of visual monitoring of algal blooms The project has progressed according to schedule and thus, no extension of the project duration is envisioned. Progress report LIFE+ 6

7 3. Technical part 3.1. Actions Action 1 Project management The progress of the project is presented using a Gantt-chart (annex 5.4). SUBACTION 1.1. The staff and the organisation (In progress according to the established time schedule) The management structure was initiated and activated and actions and their personnel were nominated as planned: 1) Management Board formed by the project leader (Dr. O. Malve, SYKE) and the Associated Beneficiary (partner) leaders; 2) Core management team at the Coordinating Beneficiary SYKE; 3) Steering Group formed by the Management Board and the Action leaders; 4) Actions and their personnel. Management Board and Steering Board met three times and Core Team four times. The amount of meetings complies with the set objectives and there was a strong determination to continue like this during the project. The partnership agreement was sketched and signed by the end of March 2011 as planned. SUBACTION 1.2. Launching of the project (Completed according to the established time schedule) The project was launched on 1'st of October as planned. Management Board and Steering Board had the first meeting on 7'th of October. A kick off workshop were arranged on 26'th of November for all project partners in Helsinki. SUBACTION 1.3: Monitoring (in progress according to the established time schedule) The progress of the project was monitored by the PL through regular contacting with the persons in charge of project actions. Monitoring report was compiled from the material delivered by action leaders by 21st of March Evaluation of the progress and demonstration character of actions based on delivered material was held in Project Monitoring workshop on 28 th of March The Steering Group were informed at 28 th of March 2011 about the progress of the project in the Steering Group meeting and the monitoring report was approved. No corrective actions were necessary to implement. The project was monitored based on the observed successes and failures to submit deliverables and to comply with the action specific criteria of dissemination and demonstration actions. The criteria of progress included The amount and quality of dissemination and demonstration actions, material and reports delivered The number of stakeholders and organizations involved Per-uses of GisBloom web services i.e. data, models, predictions, land use recommendations The number of projects and organizations networked with The number of workshops and conferences participated and arranged The amount and quality of feedback from end users of GisBloom services and tools Progress report LIFE+ 7

8 The criteria of dissemination and demonstration character included: The evaluation of technical and economic viability and innovativeness of the GisBloom web services and tools is performed in the actual scale of river basin management. An existing methodology or model is used as a baseline situation that functions as a reference point in the demonstration of technical and economic viability and innovativeness of GisBloom services and tools. Project was evaluated based on the aforementioned criteria (table 3). During the first six months, the project progressed well. Yet, it is too early to evaluate how well the project complies with the criteria of demonstration and dissemination character (demonstration implemented in the actual scale of river basin management and evaluation is based on a clearly defined baseline situation) because demonstrations and dissemination were newly taking shape. Table 3. The evaluation of progress and of demonstration and dissemination character of the project based on the aforementioned criteria. PROGRESS DEMO. DISSEM. ACTION Dissem. demostr. material Stakeholders Peruses Network ing Workshops etc. Feedback Scale Base line 1.1 The staff, organization 1.2 Launching >10 >10 - >10 1 > Monitoring 1 > > Audit Network 2 >10 - >10 3 > After-Life Lakes 3 >5 - > Coast data 1 > Model Catchment Remote sens GIS 3 >5 - > Algal mod Gis serv as Socio-eco Pilot areas > Lapuanj Karjaanj Vesijärvi Dissemin. (sum) >10 >10 >100 >5 1 >5 - - No deficiencies were observed or anticipated by the end of the project in the progress of project and in the dissemination and demonstration of methodologies. Thus, no corrective action was necessary to launch. Progress report LIFE+ 8

9 Inception report was prepared and approved by 21 th of June and submitted by 1st of July. The next monitoring report will be prepared and approved by 15 th of September and submitted by 1st of October. All reports will be delivered on time by the end of the project. The following deliverables (in appendix) were submitted on time (table 4). Table 4. Deliverables (in appendix) submitted. Name of the Deliverable Code of the associated Deadline action Metadata report on the available phytoplankton data from lakes Plan for internal and external communication Report of the factors determining algal bloom occurrence in lakes based on the analysis of visual monitoring of algal blooms There is no indication of delay of coming deliverables. The following milestones were achieved on time (table 5). Table 5. Milestones achieved. Name of the Milestone Code of the associated Deadline action Nomination of the project secretary Kick-off workshop of the GisBloom project Website of the project Integrated water quality and algae blooming model WSFS-VEMALA-LakeState preliminary version GIS bathymetric model for the demonstration area and compilation of the historical data Questionnaire and interview forms completed Complete analysis of data of visual monitoring of blooms in lakes Daily production of water quality and algae blooms forecasts for the public with WSFS-VEMALA-LakeState model started Completion of diffuse load equations There is no indication of delay in the achievement of milestones ahead. Yet, it is too early to report the lessons learnt at national and European level. SUBACTION 1.4. Audit No activity, yet. Progress report LIFE+ 9

10 SUBACTION 1.5. Networking with other projects Networking action was successful in establishing the comprehensive network of actors in the field of river basin management including administration, private enterprises, public organizations and stakeholders in local, river basin, national and European scale. First and foremost, GisBloom project networked actively with WATERPRAXIS project ( and co-organized the Symposium on CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES IN RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT January 2011, Oulu, Finland. At the symposium, Olli Malve and Pia Rotko presented the first results and lessons learnt (presentation and poster) in demonstrating GisBloom web services and tools in pilot areas. The other organizers of symposium, in addition, to Waterpraxis project, were. Baltic Sea Programme, Genesis project from 7 th FP ( &p_menu_id=16904&p_sub_id=16859&p_dim2=16860), Cewic (Cenre of expertise in the water industry cluster, Academy of Finland ( VALUE doctoral school ( University of Oulu ( VACCIA project It was agreed that FreshMon project (High Resolution Freshwater Monitoring: GMES Downstream Services) will provide GisBloom with high resolution remote sensing data and demonstrate their use for pilot areas. Olli Malve will give a lecture in a summer course on Sustainability, River Basin Management and Climate Change in the Baltic Sea in Hamburg from September 2011 (in the frame of the WATERPRAXIS project). In river Temmesjoki, GisBloom and Waterpraxis will have joint demonstration activities in GisBloom project personnel participated in the development of guidance for the work of 2nd planning period together with Ministry of Environment and regional authorities. It was evident, that the results and experiences of the GisBloom project will provide valuable input to guidance development process in the coming years. The personnel of GisBloom participates in the following projects, which provided excellent opportunities for information exchange: - WISER project ( - Water bodies in Europe: Integrative Systems to assess Ecological status and Recovery) - WATERPRAXIS project ( - "From theory and plans to eco-efficient and sustainable practices to improve the status of the Baltic Sea"). GisBloom arranged a symposium together with WATERPRAXIS. - FreshMon project (High Resolution Freshwater Monitoring: GMES Downstream Services) - Baltic Hazardous and Agricultural Releases Reduction BALTHAZAR project SCENES - Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States: Progress report LIFE+ 10

11 - REFRESH - Adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on European freshwater ecosystems. Funded under 7th FP (Seventh Framework Programme). AT=PROJ&QUERY=01270a8b49af:f33b:049b159c&RCN= TEKES - Finnish national funding agency In Finland, the results of the project will be communicated nationally to for example TEKES project Järvien vedenlaatupalvelu (JVP) (Water Quality Service for Lakes) and other national research projects concerning environmental monitoring technology, automated environmental measurement technology development and earth observation technology and services development. - EU MyOcean consortium for providing marine earth observation and modeling related information - MarCoast consortium providing operational marine and lake earth observation services - Nordic NordAquaRemS consortium for academic education and studies of water optics and related remote sensing / earth observation activities in and around the Baltic Sea area - EU FP7 Marie Curie consortium Water for international academia-industry expert exchange in the same field of science. - CATERMASS Life+ project - Climate Change Adaptation Tools for Environmental Risk Mitigation of Acid Sulphate Soils: - VACCIA Life+ project - Vulnerability Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Climate Change impacts and Adaptation: SUBACTION 1.6 After-LIFE Communication plan No activity, yet. Action 2 Collation, analysis and demonstration of algal bloom data SUBACTION 2.1 Lakes The tasks of sub-action 2.1 have been carried out according to the work plan. During the reporting period, sub-action 2.1 has described available phytoplankton and supporting data from lakes. The data are used in the analysis to find causal relationships between cyanobacterial blooms and environmental variables in lakes. The deliverable of Task ("Metadata description of available data from Finnish lakes") was submitted within the given time-scale (December 1, 2010). The metadata description can be considered as an iterative/additive process, and new additional metadata information will be added also later during the project. The milestone "Complete analysis of data of visual monitoring of blooms in lakes" has been largely achieved during the planned time scale (March 1st, 2011). The deliverable of Task ("Report of the factors determining algal bloom occurrence in lakes based on the analysis of visual monitoring of algal blooms") was submitted on February 28th, The deliverable presents function charts showing the different phases of the analyses, and tentative Progress report LIFE+ 11

12 causal relationships and conceptual model charts that demonstrate relationships between the cyanobacterial blooms and explanatory variables. The causal relationships against climate and land-use data will be analysed during 2011, when the comprehensive land-use data set has been finalised. The definition of catchment areas and their land-use has taken clearly more time than anticipated, but it will be finalised by summer Thus some delays in the data analysis are foreseen, but not in the delivery of remaining deliverables. The existing analysis results show that the cyanobacterial bloom situation may vary considerable between the years depending on the availability and stoichiometry of nutrients for algal growth, in particular phosphorus (P). Nutrient availability is controlled both by external and internal processes, e.g. nutrient loading which in turn is linked to the prevailing weather conditions. The results are used to set criteria for the demonstration tools that are developed and modified in the GisBloom project. During the reporting period, the members of the sub-action 2.1 have participated in the GisBloom project meetings, held several internal meetings, and contributed to discussions and meetings related to pilot areas, themes and dissemination. Dec 1'st 2010 Del "Metadata description of available data from Finnish lakes" Cauasal relationships between cyanobacterial blooms and environmental factors Feb. 28'th 2011 Del "Report of the factors determining algal bloom occurrence in lakes based on the analysis of visual monitoring of algal blooms" Weather Internal load External load Mach 1'st 2011 Milestone "Complete analysis of data of visual monitoring of blooms in lakes" Nutrient availability Algal blooms Figure 4. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 2.1. SUBACTION 2.2 Coastal areas GIS bathymetry for the Pohjanpitäjänlahti has been obtained with water body areas determined as basic units for the box-model subunits. Progress report LIFE+ 12

13 Pohjanpitäjänlahti water body areas Figure 4. GIS bathymetry for the Pohjanpitäjänlahti Bathymetry for Pohjanpitäjänlahti Coastal area Metadata for he historical data sources has been determined and data compilation has been started for temperature, salinity, nutrient and phytoplankton data for the stations in the coastal area (Tvärminne, Uusimaa, SYKE and Aranda data). They can be extracted from Hertta and Sumpu databases with graphical interface. Preliminary statistical trend analysis has been carried out and preliminary concepts for dynamical ecological model have been drafted. Gis bathymetry Box-model subunits. Meta data analysis Compilation of data Statistical trend analysis Concepts for dynamical ecological model Figure 5. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 2.2. SUBACTION 2.3 Land use and nutrient loads in river basins The sub-action has been initiated by selecting suitable water quantity and water quality monitoring sites (about 70 sites) and the water quality variables to be included in the analysis. The quality checking of the data has been started. The availability of GIS data has been checked. The release of catchment delineation tool, developed by another project in SYKE, has been delayed, but a test version of the tool (based on the DEM (25 25) m, excluding the northernmost Finland) is now available and the delineation of catchments has been started. Unfortunately, DEM (10 10) m, produced by the National Land Survey of Finland will Progress report LIFE+ 13

14 probably be ready earliest in the autumn Thus, the slope calculations will be based on the DEM (25 25) m, if there will not be a more accurate DEM available for the entire of Finland. Getting a license for using animal data is under process; the Finnish Food Safety Authority Evira has given the rights for their data, but the request concerning horses has been forwarded to the Finnish Trotting and Breeding Association (Suomen Hippos Ry). A delay in the milestones ( Completion of diffuse load equation (6/2011) and Data collation completed (9/2011) is foreseen. With regard to the milestone Completion of diffuse load equations, we have identified the variables to be included in the equations and the methods, but cannot proceed until the data are complete. The listing of monitoring sites and variables The availability of GIS data Data analysis Preparation of GIS tools Figure 6. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 2.3. SUBACTION 2.4 Satellite remote sensing and automatic station measurements The basic processing (rectification, boreal processor, adjacency effect correction) of all cloudless MERIS satellite images from 2010 has been completed. The satellite products have been made for the pilot areas consisting of turbidity/total suspended particles and chlorophyll a maps. The satellite (AVHRR images) based water temperature estimates from 12 large lakes have been compiled. Pixels corresponding to the location of the monitoring stations have been collected in each image. Discussions with data owners of the automatic raft data about data availability for the needs of the project have been carried out and data from three lakes have been received. The quality check of this data from 2010 has been made. The subaction has proceeded as planned in the proposal. Processing of MERIS images from 2010 Negotiations with pilot areas Thematic TSM / turbidity maps Data from pilot areas Comparison with in situ measurements Quality check of data Figure 7. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 2.4. Progress report LIFE+ 14

15 SUBACTION 2.5 Information tools Users of the information tools have been identified and general outline of the development process has been commonly agreed. Concepts and ideas to be implemented have been introduced to the users (project management, system end users, modellers, internal satellite data service providers and geographic and other information system developers as well as the developers within the project both in SYKE and in Arbonaut). Architectural planning of the system is finished. The technology for implementation for demonstrating the simulation results is selected and the base functionality for showing the forecasts/analysis results on a map is implemented. The external systems requiring interfacing are identified. Closer evaluation of different user and service provider group requirements was carried out in the end of June 2011 to iterate appropriate tools and services for each one of them. General roles and functional outline of sub-systems within SYKE and within Arbonaut as well as interfaces in between the system are preliminarily agreed upon, but the details will be clarified in the planned iterative process cycle. The first iterative release to the project group will be made in Dec 2011 to gather feedback from within the project group. Implemented partially in a separate project, first versions of Järviwiki web service for general gathering and dissemination of lake related data to wide general public was released in March Data web exchange systems and protocols associated with Järviwiki, EnviObserver system by VTT (associated with 'Levävahti' data gathering service) and other systems associated with GISBLOOM were tested as first release in May/June Further development and wider utilization of the methods are anticipated throughout the project. GISBLOOM will utilize and interface with the "Levävahti" service and the associated mobile information gathering technology, developed in a separate process involving SYKE, VTT and IBM. The web map interface work has started in Arbonaut, and the design of software tools for service provider side in SYKE/TK/GEO. A Confluence wiki work space has been set up in Arbonaut to facilitate closer co-operation in between and among partners. The process can be considered to be on schedule, and targets are anticipated to be met. Identification of users Introduction of concepts and objectives to the users Feedbac from users Data exchange with Lake wiki Functionality of map services Implementation of map server Architectural planning Figure 8. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 2.5. Progress report LIFE+ 15

16 Action 3 Demonstration of eutrophication and algal bloom responses to management and restoration measures and socio-economic impacts SUBACTION 3.1 Algal bloom predictions and responses to nutrient load and land use changes SUBACTION Modelling and prediction A preliminary version of the integrated WSFS-VEMALA-LakeState model was implemented (milestone ). Model was applied for simulation of total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chlorophyll-a concentration for about 2000 lakes. Daily production of chlorophyll-a forecasts for about 2000 lakes started (milestone ). Development of ensemble forecasts for chlorophyll-a started. Implementation of process based field scale phosphorus and nitrogen simulation going on. The following actions were taken to implement the demonstration of LLR model: - launch of data retrieval from the pilot areas - data integration and new model runs with the LLR model - refinement of the LLR model - planning and scheduling with the pilot areas - providing LLR model simulations and components for other participants WSFS- VEMALA- LAKESTATE model Implementation in the map server - Discharge - Load of TotP and TotN - Inlake temperature LLR model Real time forecasts of TotP, TotN, chlorophyl a and biomass Forecasts of mean TotP, TotN, chlorophyl a and biomass Target reduction of nutrient loads Figure 9. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction Progress report LIFE+ 16

17 SUBACTION A general Internet based GIS platform and data assimilation modules The principal scenario for data assimilation for forecasting algal blooms has been identified. It will comprise chlorophyll-a forecast, MERIS satellite imagery, data from automatic measuring stations and field observations by the public. The main pilot area will be Säkylän Pyhäjärvi, with data from Currently method development for data assimilation with the Sparse Bayesian approach is well under way, as well a data gathering to facilitate calibration and verification of the approach is contemplated. The real-time or near-real-time availability of data for data assimilation is still on open question. Therefore two different approached will be piloted. The first one is based on using MERIS images to provide higher spatial accuracy to the single average number that is obtainable from either automatic measuring stations, or the VEMALA model. This would require near/real/time capture and processing of MERIS images, which may prove difficult. The first option in this situation is to replace MERIS images with more readily available optical satellite images. The latter typically possess only four channels and may not contain enough data to reliable obtain Chl-a estimates. But a verification exercise against MERIS based modelling can be carried out. The second option is to use MERIS images as a database of spatial Chl-a patterns that are used to generalize a three-component model based on a VEMALA forecast, date and an automatic measuring station value. This configuration will be analysed for its statistical viability. WSFS- VEMALA- LAKESTATE model Chlorophylla forecast Implementation in the map server MERIS satellite imagery Data from automatic measuring stations Field observations Data assmilation using Sparse Bayesian method Updated chlorophyll-a forecast with higher spatial accuracy Figure 10. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction Progress report LIFE+ 17

18 SUBACTION measures 3.2 Assessing the socio-economic effects of water quality improvement The pilot areas for applying socio-economic models have been chosen and a preliminary time table for their implementation has been compiled. The pilot river basins are: the River Karvianjoki, the River Temmesjoki, the River Lapuanjoki, the River Paimionjoki, Lake Hiidenvesi, Lake Vanajavesi, and Lake Pien-Saimaa. In addition, the application opportunities of the VIRVA model to some areas of Gulf of Finland will be assessed. The tool for assessing the cost-efficiency of phosphorus load reduction actions (KUTOVA) has been tested in the Karvianjoki river basin. Cost-efficient actions for phosphorus load reduction have been calculated for the whole river basin and for the catchments of two lakes in the area. The results as well as the underlying assumptions of the reduction potential and costs of different actions have been discussed with researchers and local stakeholders. These discussions revealed few mistakes in the model, which have been corrected. The VIRVA model has been preliminary applied in the Karvianjoki river basin in order to assess the utility gained from the improvement of water quality. A postal questionnaire was developed and realized in order to find out the views of people having a residence along the shoreline of the water course regarding the water quality and its impacts on recreational use (Milestone ). The questionnaire form will be improved based on the experiences in this test case and applied in the other pilot areas. The development needs of the VIRVA model have been identified. A workshop was arranged in in which the application opportunities and development needs of the socioeconomic models were discussed together with river basin managers, experts and researchers. Actions 2 & 3.1 Land use and climate scenarios Data bases WSFS- VEMALA- LAKESTATE model Vihma model Forecasts Implementation in the map server Subaction 3.2 VIRVA model Recreational value LLR model Target reduction of nutrient load KUTOVA model Cost of measures Figure 11. Shematic presentation of activities in subaction 3.2 and of interaction with other actions. Progress report LIFE+ 18

19 Action 4 Demonstration of tools to river basin districts and local management projects Demostration of models and methods Actions 2 & 3 Planning and implementation of models, methods and map services Identification of data and knowledge needs Action 4 Workshops and theme meetings Lake Vesijärvi Lake Pien- Saimaa Vantaanjoki river basin Temmesjoki river basin Lapuanjoki river basin Lake Pyhäjärvi Karjaanjoki river basin Paimionjoki river basin Lake Vanajavesi Karvianjoki river basin, Figure 12. Shematic presentation of activities in action 4 and of interaction with other actions. SUBACTION 4.1 Integrating the methods into the river basin management planning SUBACTION Pilot areas in the river basin districts In addition to the three pilot areas mentioned in the Grant agreement/project description (Lapuanjoki and Karjaanjoki river basins and lake Vesijärvi) which are also partners of the project, four more pilot areas were selected by the end of year 2010 as promised. The suitability of the area and their interest of joining the project was determined by organizing an introductory meeting for each area in co-operation with representatives of the project and authorities from the local Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment (former Regional Environment Centre) and other interested parties in the area in question. Selected pilot areas are lakes Pien-Saimaa, Pyhäjärvi of Säkylä, Vanajavesi and Vantaanjoki river basins. Furthermore three river basins, Paimionjoki, Temmesjoki and Karvianjoki, were included to the subaction 3.2 (Assessing the socio-economic effects of water quality improvement measures) due to the sizeable synergy benefits with some other socio-economic valuations made on these areas. In order to specify the needs of the pilot areas concerning the GisBloom-project, two questionnaires were sent to the main participants of each area. The first questionnaire targeted on gathering useable background information about the area for other Actions and the second on specifying which of the tools or methods to be developed in other actions each pilot area were found the most interesting or useful. Both questionnaires were sent out and gathered via Progress report LIFE+ 19

20 during November The results showed that there are areas in need for all kinds of tools and methods but also areas with more precise problems and therefore also more defined needs. The results were used when constructing 8 themes to guide and maintain more effectively the co-operation and communication between (sub)actions developing different tools with the pilot areas where these tools are to be tested at the end of the project. By involving the pilot areas to the development phase of tools it is hoped to improve the level of usability and practicality of the tools especially considering the River Basin Management Planning work to be done in the areas. First theme meeting concerning economical tools was held on 16th of March and a joint meeting of 5 other themes on 6th of May By this time, no delays have occurred in Action 4 that would affect the work of other actions. There is also no reason for the moment to assume that the objectives of action 4, testing and reporting of the tools and methods developed in other actions, would not be achieved because the pilot areas are showing great interest to the project and because the testing of the tools and methods will be distributed according to the interest of the area for the tool or method in question. SUBACTION The Lapuanjoki river basin River Lapuanjoki catchment: Information meetings held for the river Lapuanjoki working group ( and ) with the aim to identify the pilot lakes to be used as target areas in the project. SUBACTION 4.2 Local and regional river basin management projects: Karjaanjoki and Vesijärvi SUBACTION The Karjaanjoki river basin In Karjaanjoki river basin, Estuary of Pohjanpitäjänlahti was named as one of the estuary pilots of the project already in the grant agreement Tvärminne Zoological station as the main stakeholder. Lake Hiidenvesi catchment is the other pilot site in the area with the Association for water and Environment of Western Uusimaa (LUVY) being the main participant on this area. Lake Hiidenvesi The main participant, Luvy, has filled in questionnaires regarding data gathering and has also compiled background information for the project as well as pointed out specific water protection tools and methods needed in Lake Hiidenvesi area. No delays have occurred and no difficulties have been faced regarding the sub-projects proceedings. SUBACTION Vesijärvi No actions taken yet. Action 5 Synthesis and dissemination The action was started by doing the Communication plan for internal and external communication. That was also the first deliverable which was sent to the Monitoring group by The list of the researchers was collected and informative messages of the project were sent. The visual identity was planned for the project. The www-pages was set Progress report LIFE+ 20

21 up, first in Finnish and later also in English and Swedish. The project poster and PowerPoint presentation in English was made for the Symposium Climate Change Challenges in River Basin Management which was held in Oulu Several presentations were given by different actions (annex 5.3). The web-based desktop for the project was established. The Lake-Wiki can also be considered to be on schedule, and all the targets are anticipated to be met Envisaged progress until next report Action 1 Project management The planned project actions for nine following month were presented using a Gantt-chart (Annex 5.4). SUBACTION 1.1. The staff and the organisation Management Board and Steering Board will meet on 15th of June 2011 to approve the Inception report and in September before the next Monitoring report. The Core Team will meet three times to coordinate planned actions. Inception report will be delivered on 1st of July. No delays expected. SUBACTION 1.2. Launching of the project No action pending. SUBACTION 1.3. Monitoring The next Monitoring report will be compiled by 15th of September Evaluation of the progress and demonstration character of actions based on delivered material will be held in project Monitoring workshop on 15th of September The Steering Group will be informed on 15th of September 2011 about the progress of the project and the monitoring report will be approved. No corrective action is expected. The following deliverables (in appendix) will be submitted (table 7) Table 7. Deliverables (in appendix) to be submitted. Name of the Deliverable Code of the associated action Deadline Project brochure (1 st ) Inception report LakeWiki website (proto) 2.5, There is no indication of delay of coming deliverables. The following milestones will be achieved (table 8). Progress report LIFE+ 21

22 Table 8. Milestones to be achieved. Name of the Milestone Release of interactive observational data gathering and modelling result web interface prototype and associated software Information distribution at Karjaanjoki river basin (Internet, newsletters, newspapers, public information evenings and restoration meeting) Code of the associated Deadline action Metadata report and data collation completed Compilation of nutrient load and ecological data linking study areas Value functions and cost-efficiency curves defined There is no indication of delay in the achievement of milestones ahead. The first lessons learnt at national and European level will be reported based on feedback from pilot areas. SUBACTION 1.4. Audit No activity expected. SUBACTION 1.5. Networking with other projects Olli Malve will give a lecture in a summer course on Sustainability, River Basin Management and Climate Change in the Baltic Sea in Hamburg from September 2011 (in the frame of the WATERPRAXIS project). In river Temmesjoki, GisBloom and Waterpraxis will complete the joint demonstration activities. First results learnt will be disseminated in an international conference during Project personnel continue to interact actively in the established network. SUBACTION 1.6 After-LIFE Communication plan No activity expected. Action 2 Collation, analysis and demonstration of algal bloom data SUBACTION 2.1 Lakes During the next 7 months, sub-action 2.1 continues the analyses of causal relationships between cyanobacterial blooms and environmental variables. For the visual bloom monitoring data, the causal relationships against climate and land-use will be analysed and completed Progress report LIFE+ 22

23 during summer-early autumn 2011, when the comprehensive land-use data is available. The next milestone ("Complete analysis of data of long-term bloom monitoring in lakes"), related to Task 2.1.3, can be achieved within the proposed time scale (deadline of December 1st, 2011). The members of the sub-action 2.1 will continue to participate in the GisBloom project meetings, to organize internal planning meetings, and contribute to discussions and meetings related to pilot areas and dissemination. SUBACTION 2.2 Coastal areas Historical data is available for coastal stations as Längden and Storfjärd stations. In summer 2011, phytoplankton sampling and analysis at Storfjärd station will be carried out. Also chlorophyll data is collected from and Aranda data as proxy for phytoplankton biomass. In further analysis, statistical dependencies will be analysed with other environmental parameters as temperature, salinity and inorganic nutrients. Phytoplankton biomass data will be used for the dynamical model parameterization and model validation. SUBACTION 2.3 Land use and nutrient loads in river basins During the next 7 months, quality checking of the water quality and discharge data will be finished, and the compilation of data on catchment characteristics and human impacts will be accomplished excluding the northernmost Finland. Nutrient fluxes will be calculated for the sites. The Milestone "Metadata report completed" (deadline ) will be achieved, but the other milestones "Completion of diffuse load equations" and "Data collation completed" will be delayed until 09/2013 and 12/2011(excluding the northernmost Finland), respectively. Regarding the entire duration of the project it should be noticed that the deliverable "Report on the load prediction tool, load predictions for the present, and load estimates for selected future agricultural production and changing climate scenarios" is mentioned twice (6/2013 and 9/2013) and will only be done with deadline 9/2013. SUBACTION 2.4 Satellite remote sensing and automatic station measurements During the next six months the processing of satellite data from the summer of 2011 and comparison of the existing products with available in situ measurements will be started. Estimation of Secchi disk transparency from satellite images will be tested. Transparency is an easily understandable feature for the public and it would therefore be a useful feature besides turbidity and chlorophyll a. Remote sensing products will be delivered for the web service and are demonstrated at pilot sites. Discussions on the use of obtained automatic station data in the web service will be conducted with each data provider. SUBACTION 2.5 Information tools Following activities are conducted during 2011: Collection requirements for controlling the analysis tools (models) from user interface of the map. Implementation of the first interfaces into external systems will be started as well as the user interface for management of analysis tools. Implementation of general data exchange and process control system (initial versions) Progress report LIFE+ 23

24 Interfaces of data exchange in between different systems within SYKE and in between SYKE and Arbonaut, including the special case of JärviWiki system and other relevant modeling or observational data acquisition systems. The user requirements by end user, modeler and information system management and development will be gathered and consolidated into specifications of general information service provision tools, which are then implemented and used for service provision in this stage of project, only in test mode First iterative release of the system for testing purposes in Dec 2011 Action 3 Demonstration of eutrophication and algal bloom responses to management and restoration measures and socio-economic impacts SUBACTION 3.1 Algal bloom predictions and responses to nutrient load and land use changes SUBACTION Modelling and prediction Plan for the next 7 months. Development of phosphorus and nitrogen leaching simulation and chlorophyll-a simulation will continue. Operational version of the integrated WSFS- VEMALA-LakeState model will be implemented by (milestone). By the model development will be in such a state that scenarios for action 3.2 can be started to provide. The following actions will be taken to demonstrate LLR model by the end of 2011: - retrieval of data from all the pilot areas - starting the integration of selective fishing and water temperature components into the LLR model - average algal bloom predictions for all the pilot areas - implementing the biomass model to the LLR model - integration of land use and climate change scenarios provided by WSFS transferring input and output data of the LLR model into the GIS based web-services SUBACTION A general Internet based GIS platform and data assimilation modules By next reporting period, the first prototype assimilation method will be integrated into a data assimilation platform (map server). SUBACTION measures 3.2 Assessing the socio-economic effects of water quality improvement The VIRVA model will be further developed, extended and applied to two pilot areas (Paimionjoki and Pien-Saimaa). The results of the Karvianjoki application will be summarized and reported. The KUTOVA model will be applied to the River Temmesjoki and its application to the River Paimionjoki will be launched. Progress report LIFE+ 24