Critique of green economy and future possibilities. Janne I. Hukkinen University of Helsinki

Transcription

1 Critique of green economy and future possibilities Janne I. Hukkinen University of Helsinki

2 Outline Background for green economy Critical review of green economy Future possibilities

3 A safe operating space for humanity (Rockström et al. 2009)

4 IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007) Timeframe for 0-emission action: !

5 IPAT Classical equation to express environmental impact (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971): I = impact (kg/a) P = population (cap) A = affluence (GDP/cap-a) T = level of technology, MIPS (kg/gdp)

6 IPAT challenge IPCC s reference to zero net emissions by means that in I = P * A * T Iemitted = Isequestered = constant [kg CO2/a] What are recent global trends in P, A, T?

7 Trends:,, [cap] [$/cap] [kg CO2/$]

8 Human response to IPAT challenge * * =

9 Outline Background for green economy Critical review of green economy Future possibilities

10 Green economy to the rescue? T with Eco-efficiency (kg in kg/$) Service economy (kg in kg/$)

11 eco-efficiency challenge (CO2) Over the past 35 years we have cut the carbon intensity of world economy to ¾ of what it was Over the next 35 years we should cut carbon intensity to 1/100 of today s level (assuming 9 billion people, EU living standards, 2% economic growth)

12 eco-efficiency challenge (natural resources) (Jackson 2009) Fossil fuel consumption Primary metal extraction NOTE THE DIFFERENCE: - Absolute decoupling of economy and environment (kg ) - Relative decoupling (kg/gdp ), which often leads to rebound

13 Reboundeffect Increase in quantity of products consumed cancels gains made in ecoefficiency Micro-rebound: increase in consumption of the same product better fuel efficiency more money to spend buy another car Macro-rebound: increase in consumption in other sectors better fuel efficiency more money to spend motorize garden care work efficiency more leisure time more material consumption

14 service economy challenge Service economy is materially based on ecosystem services and natural resources Service: more efficient computer games More efficient computers Faster computer product cycle Resource: mining more rare earth metals Cultural limits of the service economy Service: public market space outsourced into private shopping mall space Private mall profiles and prioritizes customers Cultural limit: appropriate to ban youth from the mall?

15 Outline Background for green economy Critical review of green economy Future possibilities

16 Related challenges: Population momentum Existing large fertile population Time lag from reduction in birth rate to reduction in population Yet is approaching fast Opportunity: P when A (IPAT tradeoff)

17 Related challenges:, or degrowth Easy to see what depends on economic growth Employment Well-being Education Culture Environmental protection Etc., etc. Difficult to see, what does not depend on economic growth

18 Future possibilities (Jackson 2009; Latouche 2007; Hukkinen 2010) Absolute limits to use of natural resources and ecosystem services Regulating drivers of consumption (advertising, indebtedness) New indicators of well-being and happiness Equity and fairness (min and max wages) Experiments in nonprofit organization Investment in green infrastructure and labor Ecological tax reform Macroeconomics for limited ecosystems

19 References Davis, S.J., Caldeira K., Matthews H.D. (2010) Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure, Science 329: Ehrlich P.R. and Holdren J.P. (1971) Impact of population growth, Science 171: Hukkinen, J. (2010) Taloutta ei pidä kasvattaa vaan supistaa, Helsingin Sanomat, Guest editorial, 26 May, p. A2. IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007) Jackson, T. (2009) Prosperity without growth? Sustainable Development Commission ( Latouche, S. (2007) Jäähyväiset kasvulle, suom. M. Ollila, Helsinki: Like. Rockström et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461: World Commission on Environment and Development (1990) Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press.