OG21 TTA2 Exploration and Increased Recovery. 26 th April, 2012 Erik Skjetne

Transcription

1 OG21 TTA2 Exploration and Increased Recovery 26 th April, 2012 Erik Skjetne

2 Active TTA2 members Name Tor Bjørnstad Kjell Yngvar Buer Mariann Dalland Chris Dart Ying Guo Olaf Huseby Arild Jørstad Børge Knapstad Tor Langeland Ane Lothe Ute Mann Ingrid Anne Munz Marie Laure Olivier Bernt Pedersen Hans Christen Rønnevik Erik Skjetne (lead) Lars Sønneland Kirsti Veggeland Erling A. Woods Arvid Østhus Organization IFE GDF Suez NPD E-ON Ruhrgas Total IFE Lundin FMC CMR Sintef Sintef RCN Sintef Shell Lundin Statoil Schlumberger Iris Badger explorer ConocoPhillips

3 Business Case Business case Description Added Recoverable Resources Exploration for resources to new field centres New knowledge and technology to discover 15% of yet-to-find volume. 2.4 bn bbl o.e. Exploration for resources tied into existing infrastructure Sum exploration technology Increased recovery immobile oil of fields currently in production Increased recovery mobile oil of fields currently in production Future new field developments and gas recovery Sum increased recovery Sum total TTA2 New knowledge and technology to discover 5% of yet-to-find volume. 20% of 16.2 bn bbl o.e. yet-to-find recoverable resources on NCS Add 3% on the average recovery factor, 1% gives 570 mill. bbl o.e. Add 3% on the average recovery factor, 1% gives 570 mill. bbl o.e. 1/3 of the contribution to increased recovery of oil for fields in production About 30% increased IOR costefficiency and 50% reduction in uncertainty is needed to realize the potential 0.8 bn bbl o.e. 3.2 bn bbl o.e. 1.7 bn bbl 1.7 bn bbl 1.1 bn bbl o.e. 4.5 bn bbl o.e. 7.7 bn bbl o.e.

4 Energy Efficiency Business case Description Exploration for resources to new field centres Exploration for resources tied into existing infrastructure Increased recovery immobile oil of fields currently in production Increased recovery mobile oil of fields currently in production Future new field developments and gas recovery *) Extended life of NCS *) Reduced number of dry wells *) Integration of technology, knowledge and resources *) Extended life of existing infrastructure *) Energy efficient use of existing infrastructure *) More efficient use of water injection *) CO 2 injection for increased oil recovery *) Optimized oil production *) Combined methods more energy efficient *) Reduced water production *) More efficient well placement *) Extended field life *) Higher and faster recovery of oil reservoirs reduces energy input per produced volume

5 NCS Large Numbers NCS total recoverable oil & gas volume: 80 bn bbl o.e. Including produced and yet-to-find NCS total recoverable oil volume: 40 bn bbl oil NCS remaining recoverable oil: 18 bn bbl oil Remaining not recovered oil on NCS: 40 bn bbl oil Assuming 50% recovery factor Gross value billion NOK (600 NOK/bbl)

6 Mill. Sm3 o.e. Exploration status and potential

7 Recovery Factor (%) Increased Oil Recovery New technology works

8 Challenges Exploration challenges: Large yet-to-find fields are technologically challenging to discover Many small marginal yet-to-find fields to be discovered as NCS matures Increased recovery challenges: Immobile oil is about half of remaining oil in fields in production and cannot be produced by standard water or gas injection Limited window of opportunity for large and mature sandstone fields with already high recovery factor Recovery factor for oil has flatten out Small fields have a recovery factor of only 30% and has not increased last 20 years High reservoir complexity gives low recovery

9 Exploration technology gaps Large scale (basin & play) integrated geological process and modelling Geophysical acquisition processing, imaging and joint interpretation Special arctic exploration technology

10 Recovery factor, oil (%) 70 Recovery factor: effect of size 0 Oil in place (million Sm 3 ) Average oil recovery all fields: 46%

11 Recovery factor, oil (%) Reduced recovery factor in time 70 0

12 Reservoir complexity Top six NCS complexity attributes: Average permeability Permeability contrast Structural complexity (faults) Lateral stratigraphic continuity STOOIP density Coning tendency Reservoir Complexity Index Non-linear combination 2005

13 IOR technology gaps Improved volumetric sweep by more wells: reservoir characterization New IOR well designs Map, release & transport immobile oil Enhanced oil recovery Technology for chalk fields Oil Volume Project not sanctioned: low volume or high cost/risk Project sanctioned Project terminated Px0: x0% probability of higher volume Minimum Economic Volume P10 P50 EOR Measures P90 New Technology: Increase volume Reduce cost Reduce uncertainty Miscible gas injection CO 2 injection Low salinity water injection Surfactant flooding Immobile Oil Mobile Oil IOR and production optimization Identify drilling targets by 4D seismic and reservoir characterization Microbial EOR Infill drilling Advanced wells EOR Measures Polymer water flooding Deep water diversion Zonal shutoff Subsea compression WAG/CO 2

14 Technology gap Increased recovery Time to market (year) Cost (MNOK) Criticality Business Case (L,M,H) Global market value (L,M,H) OG21 Strategic Goals Prioritized order Main barriers Improved volumetric sweep: reservoir & fluid characterization H H 1,4,3,2 Competence and innovation Identify complex and marginal in-fill drilling targets: Reservoir characterization, 3D/4D seismic, logs and production data capability, permanent seismic Identify innovative technology to improve volumetric sweep New multi branched EOR/IOR well design for higher well density of reservoir with high reservoir complexity index with combined injection and production. Subsea EOR plug H H 1,3,4,2 Multidiscipline R&D: reservoir + drilling & well and play Mapping, release and transport of immobile oil: H H 1,3,4,2 Highly time critical, Microscopic oil trapping mechanisms (snap-off and by-passing) and immobile oil cluster size distributions for different reservoir types Justify test/pilot, all the way from fundamental R&D to Macroscopic mapping of immobile oil full field Crude oil wettability implementation in a Avoidance of oil trapping few years Immobile oil release and transport mechanisms (i.e. low salinity, MEOR, surfactant, wettability alterating agents, visco-elastic polymer) Decision support for EOR: reduce uncertainty by 50% H H 1,3,4,2 Justify test/pilot, Improve dynamic simulation and measurement of EOR processes to reduce uncertainty on value by 50% capacity, competence and time critical EOR methods: polymer flooding, deep water diversion (water shut off), deep gas diversion (foam), low salinity water flooding, surfactant flooding, MEOR Optimize combined EOR methods by 30%: H H 1,3,4 Environmental Find the ideal cocktail (i.e. low salinity + polymer + surfactant + water diversion) acceptance, time critical capacity of Identify new methods and/or hybrids (i.e. ASP) competence and Develop new super chemicals products Use nano-technology for EOR Chalk specific technology: H M 1,4 Competence Coupled geomechanical/flow models Rock mechanics (weakening) due to EOR chemicals and CO 2 Reliable dual porosity simulation tools

15 Environment Subsurface technology: Reduces subsurface uncertainty Reduces kick risk and blow-out risk Increased recovery: EOR chemical challenge Positive with more efficient water injection Exploration: Kick and blow-out risk Seismic effect on mammals

16 Main Priorities IOR: Combination of time criticality and resilient technology gaps Increased recovery: 1. Optimized combined EOR methods 2. Improved volumetric sweep: reservoir & fluid characterization 3. Mapping, release and transport of immobile oil 4. New IOR-well designs 5. Technology for chalk fields Exploration: 1. Large scale (basin & play) integrated geologic process and modelling 2. Geophysical acquisition, processing, imaging and joint interpretation 3. Special arctic technology

17 Priority list public funding 1. Mapping, release and transport of immobile oil 2. Improved volumetric sweep: reservoir & fluid characterization 3. Optimized combined EOR methods 4. Large scale (basin & play) integrated geology and geophysics modelling 5. New IOR-well designs 6. Geophysical acquisition, processing, imaging and joint interpretation 7. Technology for chalk fields 8. Special arctic technology and micro seepage Research and Development Demonstration and piloting

18 Enabling components Key milestones Roadmap for one technology Field implementation Technology export Field pilot test Lab test Technology acceptance 2015 Project feasibility 2016 Result acceptance Method refinement Robust prediction 2011 Method approval 2013 Reservoir feasibility Recovery potential 2014 Prediction tools EOR competence Pilot feasibility Equipment Competence build up

19 Summary Exploration and increased recovery Make NCS a leading technology driven province in 2020 Exploration New field centres 2.4 bn bbl Increased recovery Mobile oil 1.7 bn bbl Basin & play scale integrated geological process & modeling Improved volumetric sweep: reservoir & fluid characterization New IOR well designs Exploration Tie-in to existing fields 0.8 bn bbl Increased recovery Immobile oil 1.7 bn bbl Geophysical acquisition, processing, imaging and joint interpretation Mapping release and transport of immobile oil Increased recovery New fields 1.1 bn bbl Special arctic exploration technology Enhanced oil recovery Prioritized areas for governmental funded R&D: Technology for chalk fields

20 Backup

21 Process TTA2 meetings: Pre-read, group work and discussions June 9 June 30 August 11 August 25 Received some comments from TTA2 group, NPD, PTIL and OG21 board Modified strategy document

22 Exploration Technology gap Petroleum system models, source rock, geochemical parameters, alternative migration paths, stratigraphic and structural traps (national maps/models systemation) (semi-automation of basin model building) Geological model and process understanding linked to computational models Geological process modelling: Basin & play models Analogues Aggregation from large number of data sources Models with memory of knowledge from exploration to production, and back into new exploration Time to market (year) Cost (MNOK) Criticality Business Case (L,M,H) Global market value (L,M,H) H M/H 1,4,3 OG21 Strategic Goals Prioritized order Main barriers H H 1,4,3 Constraints and validation H H 1,4,3 Important to view in connection with improved imaging New play models NCS H L 1,4 Competence 3D joint inversion methods (seismic, EM, grav/mag, rock M M 1,3,4 Talent physics), including for direct hydrocarbon indicators Double spatial resolution and accuracy from seismic data H H 1,3,4 Identify structure and migration paths Sub basalt seismic, EM, gravity imaging H H 1,4,3 Sub basalt calibration well is preferable Sub salt imaging full wave field L H 4,1 Large prospects not identified on NCS Special arctic exploration technology M M 1,4,3

23 Vision & Goal Vision: Develop new exploration technology and increased recovery technology to make NCS a leading technology driven petroleum province in Goal: Develop new technology to add 7.7 billion bbl o.e. recoverable resources (3.2 bn bbl o.e.) and reserves (4.5 bn bbl o.e.).