Prof. Dr. Semion Kurolap (Voronezh State University, the Faculty of Geography and geoecology, Russia)

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1 Estimation of risk for the health of population connected with pollution of air pool in industrial megacities (The joint project under support of RFBR-DFG) Prof. Dr. Semion Kurolap (Voronezh State University, the Faculty of Geography and geoecology, Russia) Prof. Dr. Lutz Katzschner (University Kassel, Institute of Environmental Meteorology, Germany) URBAN CLIMATE AND HEALTH RISKS

2 Kassel, Germany

3 Voronezh, Russia

4 Thermal stresses (Stuttgart) Katzschner Trend of the air temperature

5 Katzschner Microclimate of cities V - speed of the wind T L -temperature

6 Mobile meteorological station Katzschner

7 The modelling stand of aeration Katzschner

8 Katzschner ENCAC 2007 Model of the microclimate Examples for Facade temperature

9 Urban park: air temperature (day) Temp 2m 16:00 LST 2 m above ground Pot. Temperature ( C) C Y (m) C C C C C C C C C ENVI-met X (m) Katzschner

10 Maps of thermal comfort The city of Kassel Katzschner

11 The city of Voronezh The Voronezh reservoir The historical centre The right coast The left coast

12 The city of Voronezh The city of Voronezh Public and business centre

13 The city of Voronezh Housing development in the 50s of the 20th century

14 The city of Voronezh Industrial districts Thermal power station Left-bank industrial district Disposal of waste water

15 The equipment of reception and the analysis of the information Ecologic-medical monitoring Reception of the meteorological satellite data (VSU) The aerial

16 Meteorological satellite data L Ground analysis maps L H L H L L H Surface of the Earth Maps of pressure-field topography L L H L L L L 850hpa H L 10hpa H

17 Meteorological station (VSU)

18 Systems of air quality monitoring Share of non-standard analyses exceeding the standard (%) 73,1 Phenol Dust 42,8 CO 24,2 23,6 NO2 SO2 22,5 7,1 3,8 0,5 оксид азота фенол пыль оксид серы оксид углерода оксид меди формальдегид оксид марганца Control posts: stationary mobile

19 Portable equipment for air environment monitoring Sound level meter SVAN 945 A digital device «МES-2»

20 Maps of air environment pollution of the city of Voronezh NO 2 SO 2 Isolines of the ground-level concentrations Formaldehyde СО

21 Assessment of the risk associated with the air pollution Pollution centers Heat Cold

22 Assessment of public health risks associated with the air environment quality 1. Assessment of aeration

23 The map of aeration Zone of strong wind Zone of mall wind Aerodynamic corridor

24 The study of meteorotropic reactions Analysis of the children s response to atmospheric factors and their combinations over the 3-year period of observations (around 8000 children)

25 Dependence of respiratory disease rate of children on the level of cloudiness at the northerly wind D - Determination coefficient 3000 обращаемость по поводу симптомов и болезней органов дыхания (на 1000 детей) y = 0,0026x3-0,3389x2 + 19,273x + 863,82 D = 53 % облачность в % ( при северном ветре)

26 Dependence of the rate of the diseases of blood circulation system of children (Y) on the amplitude of wind speed variations (X) D - Determination coefficient Y обращаемость по поводу симптомов и болезней системы кровообращения (на 1000 детей ) y = 3748,1Ln(x) ,9 D = 44 % амплитуда средней скорости ветра (м/сек) X

27 The city of Voronezh Relatively clean district The most dangerous air pollutants: butadiene, soot, copper, suspended substances, benzene, styrene, hexavalent chrome Sites with high-level technogenic load

28 3. Assessment of the risk associated with the air pollution Comparative method of research Respiratory diseases Diseases of nervous system Diseases of immune system Skin deseases Сongenital anomalies

29 Cancerogenic Risk : CR CR=ADD x SF Total cancerogenic risk associated with air environment pollution produced by the synthetic rubber plant 1,3 butadiene

30 Zones of ecological risk in the city of Voronezh Risk: 1 dangerous (high risk) 2 - increased 3 - satisfactory 4 - safe (permissible risk) MapInfo

31 Municipal ecological policy Modernization of the city transport networks Change of balance in the heat power industry associated with transition to fuel gas Intracity green spaces

32 Thank you for your attention! Kassel Voronezh