State of the Oceans: 2011
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1 State of the Oceans: 2011 Jim Galasyn University Congregational United Church of Christ 20 November 2011
2 Agenda Background Overfishing Biogeochemical cycles Prospects
3 Background Biography Exponential growth Predator-prey relationship Mass extinction events Permian-Triassic extinction
4 Soylent Green
5 Exponential function The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function. Albert Allen Bartlett
6 Exponential growth y = e x
7 Exponential decay y = e -x
8 Predator-prey relationship Prey Population N h Predator population N p
9 Predator-prey relationship dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p Prey Population N h Predator population N p
10 Predator-prey relationship equals increase in prey population Rate of change in prey population dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p minus number of prey killed by predators Prey Population N h Predator population N p
11 Predator-prey relationship equals increase in prey population Rate of change in prey population dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p minus number of prey killed by predators Prey Population N h Predator population N p dn p dt = cpn h N p d p N p
12 Predator-prey relationship equals increase in prey population Rate of change in prey population minus number of prey killed by predators dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p Prey Population N h Predator population N p dn p Rate of change in predator population dt = cpn h N p d p N p minus number of predator deaths equals rate at which prey are converted to predator offspring
13 Predator-prey relationship equals increase in prey population Rate of change in prey population minus number of prey killed by predators dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p N h = ½τ ± (τ 2 4Ce τ ) ½ Prey Population N h Predator population N p N p = ½τ (τ 2 4Ce τ ) ½ dn p Rate of change in predator population dt = cpn h N p d p N p minus number of predator deaths equals rate at which prey are converted to predator offspring
14 Predator-prey relationship equals increase in prey population Rate of change in prey population minus number of prey killed by predators dn h dt = r h N h pn h N p N h = ½τ ± (τ 2 4Ce τ ) ½ Prey Population N h Predator population N p N p = ½τ (τ 2 4Ce τ ) ½ dn p Rate of change in predator population dt = cpn h N p d p N p minus number of predator deaths equals rate at which prey are converted to predator offspring
15 Predator-prey curves
16 Predator-prey curves
17 Predator-prey curves
18 Marine food web
19 Mass extinction events
20 Permian-Triassic extinction
21 Permian-Triassic extinction
22 Permian-Triassic extinction
23 Permian-Triassic extinction
24 Overfishing Pelagic longlines Bottom trawling Trophic cascades: top-down Trophic cascades: bottom-up
25 Overfishing: pelagic longlines
26 Pelagic longlines
27 Pelagic longlines
28 Pelagic longlines
29 Bottom trawling
30 Bottom trawling
31 Bottom trawling
32 Bottom trawling
33 Bottom trawling
34 Bottom trawling
35 Bottom trawling
36 Overfishing
37 Overfishing
38 Trophic cascade
39 Trophic cascade
40 Trophic cascade
41 Marine mammal decline
42 Marine mammal decline
43 Marine mammal decline
44 Marine mammal decline
45 Marine mammal decline
46 Fishing down the food web
47 Plankton
48 Global plankton decline
49 Global plankton decline
50 Global plankton decline
51 Global plankton decline
52 Krill decline
53 Krill decline
54 Shellfish decline
55 Ocean overexploitation
56 Element cycles Phosphorus eutrophication Nitrogen eutrophication, acid rain Sulfur anoxia, acid rain Carbon warming, euxinia, acidification
57 Element cycle perturbations Element cycle Anthropogenic perturbation Perturbation source Nitrogen 80 megatons/year Fertilizer production transfers 80 Tg of N per year from atmosphere to soil. 1 Sulfur 108 megatons/year 1 Tmol from transfer of oxidized and reduced sediments from mining to soil; 2 Tmol from transfer of reduced sediments to atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. 2 Phosphorus 9-32 megatons/year Fertilizer production transfers 9-32 Tg of P per year from mining to the oceans. 3 Carbon 9000 megatons/year 33 Gt of CO 2 (9 Gt C) released from burning fossil fuels in
58 Element cycle perturbations Element cycle Anthropogenic perturbation Perturbation source Nitrogen 80 megatons/year Fertilizer production transfers 80 Tg of N per year from atmosphere to soil. 1 Sulfur 108 megatons/year 1 Tmol from transfer of oxidized and reduced sediments from mining to soil; 2 Tmol from transfer of reduced sediments to atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. 2 Phosphorus 9-32 megatons/year Fertilizer production transfers 9-32 Tg of P per year from mining to the oceans. 3 Carbon 9000 megatons/year 33 Gt of CO 2 (9 Gt C) released from burning fossil fuels in
59 Earth movement by humans
60 Ocean stressors: element cycles
61 Phosphorus
62 Phosphorus
63 Phosphorus
64 Phosphorus
65 Phosphorus in Chesapeake Bay
66 Phosphorus in Chesapeake Bay
67 Nitrogen in Spain
68 Nitrogen in Spain
69 Nitrogen in Europe
70 Nitrogen
71 Nitrogen in the Gulf of Mexico
72 Nitrogen in the Gulf of Mexico
73 Gulf of Mexico dead zone
74 Global nitrogen perturbation
75 Global dead zones 1995: 195 hypoxia events
76 Global dead zones 2008: 400 hypoxia events
77 Global dead zones Number of dead zones doubles every 10 years 2008: 400 hypoxia events
78 Carbon: ocean warming
79 Ocean warming
80 Ocean phenology changes
81 Ocean warming: invasive species
82 Chinstrap penguin decline
83 Chinstrap penguin decline
84 Chinstrap penguin decline
85 Hydrologic cycle A warmer world is a wetter world. Increased nutrient deposition into oceans Drives phenology
86 Hydrologic cycle
87 Ocean acidification
88 Ocean acidification
89 Ocean acidification Before PETM: Sediment is 10% clay and rich in tiny calcareous shells.
90 Ocean acidification 55 million years ago: Large CO 2 release abruptly changes ocean ph.
91 Ocean acidification Sediments from this 50,000 year period are almost all red clay. Ocean acidity prevents formation of carbonate shells.
92 Ocean acidification and krill
93 Ocean acidification and mollusks
94 Permian-Triassic extinction
95 Permian-Triassic extinction
96 Permian-Triassic extinction Siberian trap emissions: 3 trillion tons C over 1 million years 3 million tons C per year
97 Permian-Triassic extinction Siberian trap emissions: 3 trillion tons C over 1 million years 3 million tons C per year Human emissions: 1 trillion tons C over 100 years 9 billion tons C per year
98 Permian-Triassic extinction Human C emissions: 3,000 times greater than P-T mass extinction
99 Marine food web
100 Acidification Marine food web
101 Marine food web Bottom trawling Acidification
102 Marine food web Pelagic longlines Bottom trawling Acidification
103 Marine food web Pelagic longlines Fisheries, acidification Bottom trawling Acidification
104 Marine food web Pelagic longlines Fisheries, acidification Acidification Opportunistic Species Bottom trawling
105 Marine food web Pelagic longlines Fisheries, acidification Opportunistic Species Bottom trawling Acidification Microbes
106 Anaerobic microbes
107 Ocean-wide anoxia
108 Ocean anoxia
109 Ocean anoxia
110 Microbe-dominated oceans The future is bright for dinoflagellates. Jeremy Jackson
111 Microbe-dominated oceans The future is bright for dinoflagellates. Jeremy Jackson
112 Prospects King Coal Human population Solutions: realistic, scalable Wastewater treatment Atmospheric vortex engines Sequestering ocean carbon What you can do
113 Prospects
114 Isolated reindeer population
115 Population overshoot
116 Human population
117 Human population 7
118 Fossil fuel industry
119 Fossil fuel industry
120 Fossil fuel industry
121 Wastewater treatment Globally, 2 million tons of sewage and industrial and agricultural waste are poured into the world s waters every day 730 million tons per year 90% of sewage in the developing world goes untreated
122 Wastewater treatment
123 Wastewater treatment Tertiary treatment: $67b/yr, $870b total
124 Wastewater treatment Tertiary treatment: $67b/yr, $870b total Cost of Iraq War: $800b
125 Hurricane Carnot cycle
126 Supercell
127 Atmospheric Vortex Engine
128 Ocean sequestration
129 Prospects
130 Prospects
131 Carbon fast and carbon offsets
132 Carbon fast and carbon offsets
133 What you can do right now Buy only sustainable seafood. Don t use pesticides, herbicides, or fertilizers. Use phospate-free detergent. Buy organic and locally grown food. Recycle aggressively. Prefer public transportation to driving. Reduce or eliminate air travel.
134 Resources Desdemona Despair: Blogging the End of the World Ecumenical Lenten Carbon Fast Creation Care NativeEnergy Atmospheric Vortex Engine Cquestrate Census of Marine Life Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Jeremy Jackson: Brave New Ocean
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