The Impact of the Changing Climate on Prince Edward Island s Infrastructure: Adaptation Options

Transcription

1 The Impact of the Changing Climate on Prince Edward Island s Infrastructure: Adaptation Options Heather Auld Principal Climate Scientist Risk Sciences International (RSI)

2 Adapting Infrastructure to What??? Changing Weather, Extremes & Climate Ice storms Snow and wind loads Sea level rise and storm surges flooding Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges

3 Climate risks Climate risk: Increased heavy precipitation and Impact: infrastructure Increased flooding, water quality, infrastructure damages, emergencies Climate risk: Increased weathering Impact: Increases failure risks, reduced service life, reduced functions, energy costs Climate risk: Climate risk: Sea level rise Higher temperatures Impact: Impact: Infrastructure losses, salt water intrusion, severe erosion, emergencies with storm surge, P.E.I.s Heat stress, electrical power demand & distribution, agriculture, w ater quality & treatment Climate risk: Climate risk: Climate risk: Increase in wind storms Winter storms ice & snow Drought Impact: Impact: Impact: Infrastructure risks, service interruptions, emergencies Water supply, agricultural productivity/costs, etc Risks for almost all infrastructure, disrupted services, emergencies

4 Under a changing climate, the past climate likely will not represent the future Past Extremes Traditionally, the past is used to project the future Changing Extremes Threshold (From Haasnoot et al, 2009) Future Usually assume that past climate risks will represent future risks For a changing climate some structures could be designed to fail Need to change climate information used for planning and design. How?

5 Climate Change Risks become particularly significant when Climate Thresholds are exceeded Extreme Wind Gusts Threshold From Coleman, 2002 Insurance Australia Group

6 Regional Damage Claims & Critical Wind Thresholds central Ontario, Canada XX Municipality Losses or Number of Claims per Day Claims or Losses per day small increases in weather extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure Fail lure threshold

7 Critical Freezing Rain Thresholds for WIDESPREAD Above Ground Power Line Failures Eastern North America Failures under Extreme Ice Storms - freezing rain (mm) (From Environment Canada) mm Communication towers Transmission line failures Distribution line failures ice loads Distribution Line Outages trees Slippery roads > <10

8 Climate Design Information for Infrastructure Structures Electrical structures Ice & Snow Loads Extreme Rain (Intensity, Duration, Freq) Extreme Winds FAILURE Towers FAILURE Hydrologic FAILURE, Power FAILURE Power Structures outages outages; failure risk Roads, Bridges Buildings Driving hazard, snowmelt RISK Snowload FAILURES FAILURE drainage & erosion Weathering; failure risk Signs, bridge failure risks FAILURES Risk of failure Risks to infrastructure services

9 National Building Codes and Standards climate design information today Climate information is included in building codes and standards for design of safe and economical infrastructure National codes and standards and typical climate design data: Extreme winds and gusts Extreme snow loads/weights Extreme ice storm accretions, combined ice and winds Extreme temperatures, rainfalls Heating Degree Days, Humidities Weathering data NOW, ADD climate change risks (2015 National Building Code of Canada)

10 Rainfall Patterns are starting to Change Trends in the number of days with rainfall 95th percentile for period (From Vincent and Mekis, 2008) Trends in the Highest 10- day Rainfall for the period NORMALIZED

11 U.S. Trends in BIG (Significant) Snowstorms Mid-winter frequency may not be impacted, but intensity could increase vulnerability increasing? Length of snow season will decrease From Changnon et al, 2006

12 Trends in Strongest Hurricanes may be increasing PLUS sea level rise AND storm surges Environment Canada

13 Maintenance and Premature weathering of concrete Durability of materials long term concern with climate change Concrete probably sensitive to increasing CO2 Australian estimates show up to 400% increase in carbonization damage risks by 2100 Sensitive to increasing temperatures & humidity May require high performance concrete, reinforcement, increased cover, changed standards, etc. Also weathering implications for rubber, plastics, etc

14 How do we mainstream/bridge climate change information into infrastructure and community decisions? Moving beyond NATO ( No Action Talk Only ) Meaningful climate change information Due diligence best practices, not perfect Multi-disciplinary considerations Support from regulations, codes, standards, legal community

15 ADAPTATION and Infrastructure: Risk assessment and Prioritization URGENT WATCH

16 IPCC Special Report on Extremes Released March 29, 2012 (Chapter 5 National Strategies) No single recommended approach for planning & implementing adaptation options When ONLY considering the next one or two decades, adaptation to recent climate, impacts AND observed trends may be sufficient For long-lasting risks and decisions, (decades) the sequencing of adaptation options are increasingly important - phasing If Large uncertainties over future climate. Adaptation actions based on observed climate, impacts and trends PLUS ADDED SAFETY FACTORS may be preferable If a long-term and irreversible decisions, INTEGRATE climate change scenarios when the direction of impacts are known Need to consider climate change scenarios understand uncertainties Use more than one set of climate models!

17 Adaptation using Infrastructure Lifecycle Timeframes Structures Houses/Buildings Sewer Dams/Water Supply Bridges Expected Lifecycle Retrofit/alterations yrs Demolition yrs Major upgrade 50 yr Refurbishment yrs Reconstruction 50 yrs Maintenance annually Resurface concrete yrs Reconstruction yrs

18 Do nothing Add ecosystem services: wetlands, forests, stream buffer zones ADAPTATION OPTIONS Resilience to the Current Climate/Weather Increase disaster response & planning Rigorous maintenance - extend service life Financial: extra insurance, disaster reserves Prioritize retrofitsstrengthen before climate thresholds Newadaptation: water & energy efficiency Add redundancy (e.g. water reservoirs, power lines) Stage/PhaseAdaptation: able to include greater adaptation in future, as needed Adapted from Byers et al, 2011 LOW REGRETS Preparing for the Future Climate Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Best management practices for current climate: no to low regrets Know climate breaking points & Monitor Replace or abandon: unsafe & cannot be retrofitted Flexibledesigns & options: works under current and future climates & increasing uncertainty Make CC-resilient: include current & future Climate

19 Range of adaptation actions from no/low regrets actions to cope better with today s climate to incorporation of future climate change No/low regrets adaptation actions, such as: Regularly update climate trends & identify at risk regions; climatic design values for codes and standards; Improve codes & standards incorporate changing climate; Vulnerability studies and forensic studies of failures; Infrastructure weathering and maintenance Better disaster management Weather Warnings? Land use? Implement the win-win solutions e.g. energy efficiency.

20 No regrets Climate Adaptation Tools for Engineers/Owners to Deal with the Current Climate

21 Climate Change Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction Know Hazards and Thresholds Hazards and risk assessments Hazards, Climatic Infrastructure codes design values Monitor/Detect changes RISK MANAGEMENT Hazards Hazards and risk for assessments Emergency Emergency planning - hazards New Warnings Planning -Impacts Special forecasts; Risk guidance Hazards for rebuilding CRISES MANAGEMENT Forecasts & Warnings; improved Warning systems Issue Special Warnings & Forecasts Creeping risks Increasing Impacts

22 Climate-Engineering Tools for Extreme Rainfall Events Design Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Tables, Curves Design Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Tables, Curves New regional IDF approaches helps with data limitations, can include other weather data New Canadian Standards Association Engineering Guideline for IDF Values includes sections on how to calculate IDF values, climate change guidance.

23 Introducing an Extreme Rainfall Intensity-Duration- Frequency (IDF) Curve Equation to interpolate to different durations Intensity Return period estimates fit for each duration separately Duration Frequency

24 Canadian Standards Association Rainfall Intensity-Duration- Frequency (IDF) Guideline for Water Resource Practitioners How to calculate IDF values, data needed, etc Climatology of heavy rainfall events Climate change guidance Best management practices for adaptation to a changing climate

25 NEW Adaptation Actions for the Future Climate Further adaptation actions will be needed, such as: Incorporate future climate projections into engineering practice; Develop new climate tools and guidance, especially for extremes; New structural materials and engineering practices; diversified lifetimes; Phased adaptation; Added SAFETY FACTORS Prioritize retrofits for vulnerable structures before breaking point thresholds Climate change adaptation into codes and standards, lifespans. From Wheatley River Improvement Group

26 Climate Change Mainstreaming Approaches Traditional approach Climate model-led What if climate extremes change according to scenarios x, y, z? Models for Potential Climate Changes Risk management approach Risk-Thresholds-led What can infrastructure cope with? Thresholds, priorities for action? Climate sensitivities, responses? Sensitivities to Climate Change? Vulnerabilities, failure thresholds? Is Adaptation needed (for the impacts)? No No new measures. Yes New measures needed. Resilience of adaptation options? Are new adaptation measures needed from ~ 20xx?

27 WHICH MODELS TO CONSIDER? TOOLS? HOW TO VERIFY? Example

28 Climate change information barriers? Overload? CCCSN web portal - atlantic.cccsn.ca 24 Global Climate Models (GCMs) available 3 emission scenarios commonly used B -low GHG emission A1B moderate GHG A2 high GHG CCCSN site has over 70 possible climate change outcomes not including Regional Climate Models (RCMs)! Validation of models and use of multiple climate models essential!

29 Infrastructure must be managed for climate change uncertainties: Charlottetown grid

30 5 Day Maximum Precipitation change (mm): Charlottetown grid

31 Some potential for stronger Wind Gusts in future Daily wind gusts > 90 kph Difficult to project future wind gusts Dependent on changes in atmospheric processes thunderstorms, storm systems Num mber of Days s 2090s From C.S. Cheng, G. Li, Q. Li, H. Auld and C. Fu, Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Wind Gust under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions over Ontario, Canada. Journal of Climate, in press. 0 O C A2 B1 A2 B1 2050s 2090s Region I Region 1: Windsor, London, Toronto

32 Projections of Percentage Change in Freezing Rain Days lasting at least 1, 4, and 6 hours for Atlantic Canada (relative to the period, using 8 GCMs) Percentag ge Change 40% 20% 0 1 hour/day 4 hours/day 6 hours/day 2020s 2050s 2090s 2020s 2050s 2090s 2020s 2050s 2090s From Cheng, Chad Shouquan, GuilongLiand Heather Auld, Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Freezing Rain Using Downscaled Future Climate Scenarios: Updated for Eastern Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 49: 8-21.

33 Dealing with Climate Change Uncertainties Results can vary widely between models & emission scenarios Some models better than others at reproducing historical climate Challenges in projecting future climate for tropical regions, mountains, oceans Still, options for mainstreaming/including climate change: Vulnerability assessments (PIEVC) No regrets updated climate information, climate thresholds and trends, more disaster planning Maintenance for service life Codes and Standards with Safety or uncertainty factors increased Soft engineering (ecosystem services; biodiversity) Staged or stepwise adaptation Flexibleadaptation robust today and into the future

34 Asset Management & Adaptation: Climate Surprises, Multi-disciplinary teams, Mainstreaming More Surprises Weathering, compound extremes and impacts all will affect lifespans of assets, durability Need to mainstream/incorporate adaptation into decisionmaking need relevant, decision-friendly climate information Multi-disciplinaryteams, including engineers and climate specialists - not just training and handing-off tools Otherimportant actions: Early warning systems, land-use zoning, and contingency planning for extreme events Climate trends, monitoring of impacts for thresholds Soft engineering Ecosystem-based Adaptation Photo courtesy of Don Jardine,

35 Energy and energy efficiency planning needs to consider changes in the current climate - ONTARIO current future future current Shifts in electrical demand under climate warming (one scenario)

36 Comparison of CC Mainstreaming Approaches Climate Model-led Approach Models-Scenarios-Impacts Starts with climate science for adaptation & mitigation options Implications: Significant investments in capacity and improved climate projections Strength: Identifies range of impacts; quantitative Climate Data: Multiple models; complex downscaling needed Risk-Thresholds Led Approach Stakeholders-Thresholds Starts with risk assessment of adaptation options, rather than climate models Implications: Society can move forward with a range of prioritized adaptation options. Strength: Stakeholder & adaptation focussed Climate Data: Work with less detailed modeling scenarios

37 Change in periods of consecutive DRY days: Charlottetown grid

38 % change in heavy precipitation years: Fraction of time when annual precipitation is very high or > 95 percentile: Charlottetown grid Lower bound of climate models

39 Tornado proofing in the 2010 NBCC: Higher Resilience

40 Additional /New Adaptation added for the Future Climate Add ecosystem services: wetlands, forests, stream buffer zones Add redundancy & Priority retrofits (e.g. water reservoirs, power lines) Rigorous maintenance - extend service life New adaptation: water & energy efficiency Stage/Phase Adaptation: able to include greater adaptation in future, as needed Adapted from Byers et al, 2011 Preparing for the Future Climate Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Rigorous maintenance - extend service life Know climate breaking points & Monitor Flexibledesigns & options: works under current and future climates & increasing uncertainty Replace or abandon: unsafe & cannot be retrofitted Soft engineering: Ecosystem Services Make CC-resilient: include current & future Climate