Climate Change: Scientific basis and risks for the finance sector
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1 Climate Change: Scientific basis and risks for the finance sector P. Hadjinicolaou 1,2 and C. Zerefos 1,3 1 Lab. of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, University of Athens 2 Frederick Institute of Technology, Cyprus 3 National Observatory of Athens
2 Outline Climate basics Current state of climate Human influence Future climate Impacts - Finance sector Adaptation Conclusions
3 Climate basics The Climate System earth.usgcrp.gov
4 Climate basics Green-house effect in the atmosphere
5 Current state of climate Global warming since 1975
6 Current state of climate Temperature Warmer Mediterranean winter climate Drier Precipitation Luterbacher et al., 2005
7 Current state of climate Increase of heavy 3-day rainfalls
8 Current state of climate Tropical storm energy
9 Current state of climate Global Warming
10 Human influence Rapid rise of CO 2 emissions
11 Human influence Drivers of CO2 emissions
12 Human influence Rapid rise of CO 2
13 Human influence Climate change causes
14 Future climate Emissions projections
15 Future climate Warming due to future emissions
16 Future climate Patterns of temperature change
17 Future climate European 2003 temperatures could be cool by 2080s
18 Future climate Change in European summer rainfall
19 Future climate Future Sea Level
20 Future climate Climate change hot-spots Giorgi, 2006
21 Impacts - Finance sector Carbon emissions trading New market, opportunities ECX CFI Price and Volume 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Total Volume Settlement 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Aug Sep Oct Nov Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Risks
22 Impacts - Finance sector Costs of catastrophic weather events, US WG II, IPCC 2001
23 Impacts - Finance sector Summer rainfall and subsidence claims, UK WG II, IPCC 2001
24 Impacts - Finance sector Climate Change and Finance Sector Climate parameter Relevant event Time-scale Sensitive sector Sensitive Insurance/Finance branch Higher Temperature, occurrence and duration Heat-waves Droughts Fires Daily/Weekly Monthly/Seasonal Daily/Weekly Electric reliability, human settlements Natural/water resources, electricity demand, health, tourism Health, life, property, crop, business interruption Forest resources, health Intense precipitation Flash flood Hourly/Daily Human settlements Property, flood, vehicle, business interruption, life, health Flood, Inundation Weekly/Monthly Agriculture, forest, transport, human settlements, tourism Property, flood, crop, marine, Mudslide business interruption Increased storm intensity Snowstorm, ice storm, avalanche, hailstorm, Windstorm Hourly, Daily, Weekly Forests, agriculture, energy distribution and reliability, human settlements, mortality, Tourism, agriculture, property Property, crop, vehicle, aviation, marine, life, business interruption WG II, IPCC 2001
25 Impacts - Finance sector Climate change impact on banks Direct Indirect Global economic environment: a. Exposure to commodities markets b. Private/Corporate loans secured by property c. Investments on sensitive sectors Clients exposure: a. Operations/Consumption b. Financial circumstances Example: Warm winters in Europe already have negatively impacted the performance of skiing resorts in the Alps and have led some banks to review their credit applications in view of possible impacts of climate change WG II, IPCC 2001
26 Adaptation Adaptation Adapting to Climate Change Promote technologies, practices and policies that reduce vulnerability of the water, agriculture, forestry, health sectors to natural climate variability and which increase resilience of long-lived infrastructure to climate change Incorporate climate-based risks into sector management decisions A. Mathur, The World bank, 2002 Disaster Management Facility Risk Identification: Hazard maps; GIS systems, vulnerability analysis; understanding direct, indirect, and secondary effects of disasters; include disaster risk analysis as part of project design Risk Reduction: land use planning, structural design and construction practices, building codes, early warning systems, preparedness and response plans Risk Transfer and Financing: insurance/re-insurance, calamity bonds, weather derivatives, safety nets, calamity funds, micro-insurance, community networks.
27 Adaptation Research needs Improve the transfer of knowledge from the scientific community studying climate change and weather forecasting to the financial services community Advance the understanding of the relative global and regional vulnerability and adaptability of insurance and other financial services to climate change Explore the role of the financial services sector in dealing with risks to society from climate change Explore the range of possible financing arrangements to cover the cost of adapting to climate change WG II, IPCC 2001
28 Conclusions Climate: Mean conditions and extremes predicted to change dramatically Signs that this change is already happening Finance sector: Direct and indirect impacts Risks and opportunities Inter-disciplinary approach and co-operation
29 Acknowledgements European Social Fund and National Resources (EPEAEK II) PYTHAGORAS II, Greece Experienced Expatriate Programme, Research Promotion Foundation, Cyprus PRECIS team at the Hadley Centre, UK and especially David Hein, David Hussel and Wilfran Moufouma-Okia Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Third Assessment Report (TAR) Stella Kovlaka, Emporiki Bank, Greece
30 Human influence Technological progress Economic development Energy Consumption Fossil Fuel Combustion GHGs Emissions Global Warming / Extreme Phenomena Mitigation/Regulation Adaptation Technological Innovation
31 Modelling Tools Observations Climate Modelling Output Solar Radiation Atmospheric Circulation Clouds/Rain Biosphere Oceans Past/present Emission Scenarios (CO2, CH4) Meteorological Parameters Input Future
32 Modelling Tools Global Climate Models
33 Modelling Tools Regional Climate Models Global Model Dynamical Downscaling
34 Modelling Tools Dynamical Downscaling: GCM -> RCM
35 Modelling Tools Model Domain 98 x 112 grid boxes 25 x 25 km Overall more detail Greece
36 Modelling Tools Realistic simulation of regional climate
37 Modelling Tools Realistic simulation of present climate
38 Future climate Climate extremes
39 Commitment to further warming
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