Fossil Fuel Indepence for Denmark: Why, when and how?

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1 Fossil Fuel Indepence for Denmark: Why, when and how? Katherine Richardson, Prof., Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen & Chairman of the Commission on Climate Change Policy ( )

2 Sustainability Science Centre Charles Darwin: On the Origin of Species (1859) Challenged the contemporary (religious based) understanding of the Human-Earth Relationship and the contemporary economic paradigm. House of Futures 02 November 2011 Dias 2 Over 150 years later, potential US Presidential candidates are discussing whether Darwin s conclusions should be taught in schools!

3 The changing human enterprise, from 1750 to 2000 Note the start of the Great Acceleration around 1950, when many activities began or accelerated sharply Steffen et al. 2004

4 Responses of the Earth System to the accelerating human enterprise. Root cause = demand for resources approaching supply! Business as usual is dead! Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009 Steffen et al. 2004

5 Earth System resources, ( goods and services ) Type of Service Ecosystem Earth System Provisioning Food Fossil Fuels Supporting Soil formation Upwelling branches of ocean circulation Regulating Ecological control Ozone formation in of pests and the stratosphere diseases Provisioning services are more commonly known as resources, and supporting and regulation services are sometimes known as environmental resources. From: Steffen, Persson, Deutsch, Zalasiewitz, Williams, Richardson, et al. 2011

6 Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : , Sept )

7 Humanity s 12,000 years of grace

8 Enhedens navn Climate Change Ozone depletion Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Planetary Boundaries Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Ocean acidification Rate of Biodiversity Loss Global Freshwater Use Sted og dato Dias 8 Land System Change Chemical Pollution

9 Nitrogen flow Enhedens navn??? Latest data 90-00? Ocean acidity 70-80? Pre- Ind. Sted og dato Dias 9

10 Sustainability Science Centre For the first time in human history, the demand for some essential natural resources is beginning to exceed supply Environment can no longer be regarded as being distinct from economic interests (natural resources = currency) Future Economic growth can only be based on more efficient resource use and/or the development of alternatives for resources where supply cannot meet demand. Dias 10

11 Sustainability Science Centre Suppy and demand problem requires that we (among other things): 1. Develop energy systems that do not depend on limited resources such as oil and gas. 2. Greatly restrict our use of our common atmospheric garbage dump for greenhouse gases. FORTUNATELY, these two things are linked Dias 11

12 mb/d Challenge: Increasing demand on the (limited) fossil fuel resources (especially oil and natural gas) Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found Crude oil - currently producing fields Half of the world s demand for oil in 2030 has yet to be developed or found. Rising prices Fluctuating prices Known oil and natural gas are concentrated in a few countries World Energy Outlook 2009

13 GHG-emissions, Mio. t/y Fossil fuels Challenge: Fossil fuels generate the bulk of carbon emissions. An effort is necessary here in order to achieve the goal 70,00 Current Danish emissions 60,00 50,00 EU target 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 80 % reduction 0, % reduction

14 Danish National Goal: To remove fossil fuels from the energy system (including transport) by 2050 Supported by all parties in Parliament Independence from fossil fuels supported by 90% of Danes Will result in (at least) an 80% reduction of CO 2 emission in 2050 compared to Dias 14

15 Short-term goals*: 40% emissions reduction by % of el from wind in % Renewables in energy system 2020 No fossil fuels in electricity or heat production by Dias 15 Presented by the new Gov t (Sept. 2011) and currently under negotiation

16 How did we get here? (Climate Commission: ) 1970s oil crisis Dias 16

17 Procent Denmark already has a strong profile in green energy and energy efficiency 12,0 Energy technology as % of total export for EU-15 countries, ,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Irland Holland Belgien Luxemburg Portugal Grækenland Spanien Storbritannien Frankrig EU15 Østrig Tyskland Sverige Finland Italien Danmark

18 How did we get here? (Climate Commission: ) 1970s oil crisis A significant component of Danish industry sees this as a winner strategy Prospect of dependence on oil import Early linkage of climate and energy agendas (Connie Hedegaard) Mohammed crisis Dias 18

19 Sustainability Science Centre Sustainability Science Centre The secret to the Danish commitment to the vision of independence from fossil fuels is the fact that Danes believe there is something in this for me! Too much climate communication is based on gloom and doom! Dias 19

20 The Danish Climate Commission

21 The Commission s terms of reference The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy is to examine how Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to implement this long-term vision. The Climate Commission s deliberations should take the following criteria into consideration: 1. Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases 2. Increasing energy efficiency 3. Maintaining the high security of energy supply 4. Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based solutions 5. Continuing a high level of economic growth 6. Ensuring positive business development and promoting international competitiveness of business in Denmark 7. Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.

22 TWO GOALS FOR THE COMMISSION Independence from oil, coal and natural gas Ambitious climate goal Renewable energy can cover Denmark s energy needs. Derived from EU s target of % reduction of emissions by 2050

23 THE COMMISSION S PRINCIPLES Economic growth will continue Denmark is not an island Independence should be obtained at the lowest possible societal cost There are no chosen technologies. Market choice rather than command and control Biomass gives both opportunities and challenges

24 kr/gj PRICE OF BIOMASS WILL DEMAND ON INTERNATIONAL DEMAND Climate Ambitiøs Ambitious omverden Climate Uambitiøs Unambitious omverden 20 0

25 The Commission s Results Denmark can become independent of fossil fuels by Even as our demand for energy services doubles. The technology is available today, but more will become available (and cheaper). Only a small additional cost as continued dependence on fossil fuels will become an increasingly expensive habit.

26 The extra price tag for independence is small 250 GNP in 2050 with and without fossil fuels (index 2008=100) without fossil fuels 2050 with fossil fuels 0

27 Consumers will pay about the same Difference in price of electricity with and without wind power (Dkr. per. kwh in 2050) Despite our energy needs doubling by 2050 the total cost for heating, transport and energy will remain the same as today. Primarily due to gains from energy efficiency. Consumer price with wind power Consumer price without wind power

28 STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS 1. We need to use energy more effectively. Technological solutions and investments have a large potential More effective energy use by 2050 relative to today Heating Appliances Transport Industry and agriculture We can halve the amount of energy that we use on household appliances relative to today

29 STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS 2. The energy of the future will come from renewable sources AMBITIOUS WORLD: DK ENERGY MIX 2050

30 UNAMBITIOUS WORLD: DK ENERGY MIX IN 2050 Varmepumper, solvarme m.m. Vind Affald Biomasse

31 Ambitiøs omverden Ambitious World Uambitiøs omverden Unambitious World PJ/år USE OF BIOMASS WILL DEPEND ON PRIS (AND AVAILABILITY) OF THE RESOURCE Danish Dansk potential ressource 250 PJ/år

32 IN AN AMBITIOUS WORLD, BIOMASS WILL BE USED WHERE THERE ARE NOT ALTERNATIVES (i.e. probably not for routine heat and el production) Transport sector, where electricity not a possibility In industry as a reserve when the price of electricity is high and for processes requiring high temperature Electricity production when markets price is high and the other renewable energy sources cannot deliver Central heating in combination with electricity production so that heat from electricity production can be utilised

33 THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE

34 THE COMMISSION S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS All focus on things that should be done during the next years in order to establish the framework that will best allow market mechanisms to promote the transition to green energy (i.e. tax on fossil fuel use) Are robust irrespective of whether the world is AMBITIOUS or UNAMBITIOUS Should be seen as a package to change an energy system, several balls have to be in the air at the same time!

35 FOCUS MUST BE ON THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE! A NUMBER OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME: Improved energy efficiency (also in industry!!) Establish infrastructure for green energy (WIND). Establish storage capacity in the system. Establish smart grid with built in intelligence. Expansion of transmission facilities (domestic and international) (WE WILL USE MORE ELECTRICITY!) Long-term planning (also to increase investment interest) Revamping of the tax system Gain experience with new transport technologies

36 R&D and not least Demonstration! Strategic energy planning Action in international political fora (i.e., EU mm) standards! Legal framework periodic evaluation of progress.

37 Putting it all in perspective: The Earth was formed about 4.7 billion years ago Our species in its present form has been on Earth for about 250,000 years About 10,000 generations Most generations lived in caves 37

38 6-8 generations ago, humans replaced animal power with machines. In our generation, research has documented that the replacement of animal with machine power is jeopardising the human habitat. 38

39 We don t get people to do that through communicating doomsday scenaria! That knowledge gives both the POWER and the RESPONSIBITY to change and to manage the Human- Earth Relationship People need to understand what s in it for me and the trench warfare has got to stop! 39