An Academic s view: Green Economy Drivers are there any characteristics?

Transcription

1 An Academic s view: Green Economy Drivers are there any characteristics? Katherine Richardson, Professor Leader, Sustainability Science Centre Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate University of Copenhagen

2 What is a green economy? Business as usual but now we will make money on the environment?? Science tells us that business as usual cannot continue

3 There is a limited amount of critical resources and ES services that can support the development of human societies! Natural science drivers: No umbilical cord!

4 Stating the obvious?? MDGs: i.e., water Rio+20 Any reason to believe that humans can use so much of a ressource that it can make a difference at the global level?

5 The changing human enterprise, from 1750 to 2000 Note the start of the Great Acceleration around 1950, when many activities began or accelerated sharply Steffen et al 2004 Steffen et al. 2004

6 Responses of the Earth System to the accelerating human enterprise. Root cause = demand for resources approaching supply! Steffen et al 2004 Business as usual is dead! Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009 Steffen et al. 2004

7 The greatest challenge of the 21 st Century: Acknowledging that the planet s resources are not infinite and developing mechanisms to share those resources among (soon) 9 billion people. Climate is a proxy for a much larger challenge! But it is also a resource problem 7

8 2100? 2014

9 Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : , Sept )

10 Professor Katherine Richardson Humanity s 12,000 years of grace

11 Nitrogen flow??? Latest data 90-00? Ocean acidity 70-80? Pre- Ind. Dias 11 Enhedens navn Sted og dato

12 Sustainability Science Centre For the first time in human history, the demand for some essential natural resources is beginning to exceed supply Environment can no longer be regarded as being distinct from economic interests (natural resources = currency) Future Economic growth can only be based on more efficient resource use and/or the development of alternatives for resources where supply cannot meet demand. Dias 12

13 Global Challenges: Achieving Sustainability Sustainability Science Congress October sustainability.ku.dk/iarucongress2014

14 Natural Science Drivers don t seem to work What does? A COMMON VISION

15 The Commission s terms of reference The Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy is to examine how Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to implement this long-term vision. The Climate Commission s deliberations should take the following criteria into consideration: 1. Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases 2. Increasing energy efficiency 3. Maintaining the high security of energy supply 4. Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based solutions 5. Continuing a high level of economic growth 6. Ensuring positive business development and promoting international competitiveness of business in Denmark 7. Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.

16 Danish Energy Agreement: Goal = removing fossil fuels from heat energy and transport sectors by 2050 Agreed milestones: 12% reduction in energy use in 2020 vs pct. renewable energy (RE) i 2020 almost 50 % of electricity from wind in CO 2 emission reduced by 34% in 2020 (vs. 1990).

17 An inexpensive way to change investment behaviour! Not symptom treatment!

18 The market is not, in itself, a driver of the transition. The FRAMEWORK within which the market operates is the driver (puts the onus on policy makers)

19 THE LONG-TERM PRICE TAG OF FOSSIL FUEL INDEPENDENCE IS SMALL 250 GNP in 2050 with and without fossil fuels (index 2008=100) without fossil fuels 2050 with fossil fuels 0

20 CONSUMERS WILL PAY THE SAME PRICE Difference in price of electricity with and without wind power (Dkr. per. kwh in 2050) Despite our energy needs doubling by 2050 the total cost for heating, transport and energy will remain the same as today. Primarily due to gains from energy efficiency. Consumer price with wind power Consumer price without wind power

21 Much focus on the business case More interesting to understand why there today is not a business case for certain actions???

22 Good ideas are not drivers and they ideas don t come by themselves! Experiments (researchers and practitioners)

23 Important actor drivers are those who: have access to the big decisions! (politicians; large companies) Big users Financiers Insurance NGOs???

24 Charles Darwin: On the Origin of Species (1859) Challenged the contemporary (religious based) understanding of the Human-Earth Relationship and the contemporary economic paradigm. Over 150 years later, societal leaders in the US are discussing whether Darwin s conclusions should be taught in schools!

25 Developing a green economy should not be done for the sake of the climate or environment! It should be done for our own sake! There is something in this for me! 25