The Danish energy. Independence from. Katherine Richardson,

Transcription

1 The Danish energy strategy: Independence from fossil fuels by 2050 Katherine Richardson,

2 The changing human enterprise, from 1750 to 2000 Note the start of the Great Acceleration around 1950, when many activities began or accelerated sharply Steffen et al. 2004

3 Responses of the Earth System to the accelerating human enterprise. Root cause = demand d for resources approaching supply! Business as usual not an option! Steffen et al. 2004

4 Challenge: Increasing demand on the (limited) fossil fuel resources (especially oil and natural gas) mb/d Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found Crude oil - currently producing fields Rising prices Fluctuating prices Half of the world s demand for oil in 2030 has yet to be developed d or found. Known oil and natural gas are concentrated in a few countries World Energy Outlook 2009

5 Challenge: Fossil fuels generate the bulk of carbon emissions. An effort is necessary here in order to achieve the goal Current emissions 70,00 60,00 EU target GHG G-emissions, Mio. t/y 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 Fossil fuels Emissions from fossil fuels in the energy sector Other emissions 80 % reduction 000 0, % reduction

6 The Commission s terms of reference Th The Danish hcommission i on Climate Change Policy is to examine how Denmark can reduce and ultimately eliminate dependency on fossil fuels in the long term. The Climate Commission shall describe how to implement this long-term vision. The Climate Commission s deliberations should take the following criteria into consideration: 1. Reducing the emission of greenhouse gases 2. Increasing energy efficiency 3. Maintaining the high security of energy supply 4. Ensuring macroeconomic cost-effectiveness by using market-based solutions 5. Continuing a high level of economic growth 6. Ensuring positive business development and promoting international competitiveness of business in Denmark 7. Ensuring environmentally sustainable development.

7 The Commission s Results Denmark can become independent d of ffossil fuels by Stategy = improved energy efficiencey and introduction of renewable energy Even though we will be demanding twice the amount of energy services in The technology is availabletoday, but more will become available. Only a very small additional cost for this energy independence as continued dependence on fossil fuels will become an increasingly expensive habit.

8 The extra price tag for independence is small 250 GNP in 2050 with and without fossil fuels (index 2008=100) without fossil fuels 2050 with fossil fuels 0

9 Consumers will pay about the same 3 2 Difference in price of electricity with and without wind power (Dkr. per. kwh in 2050) Despite our energy needs doubling by 2050 the total cost for heating, transport and energy will remain the same as today. 1 0 Consumer price with wind power Consumer price without wind power Primarily due to gains from energy efficiency. i

10 The remaining emissions derive primarily from the agricultural sector

11 STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS 1. We need to use energy more effectively. Technological solutions and investments have a large potential More effective energy use by 2050 relative to today Heating Appliances Transport Industry and agriculture We can halve the amount of energy that we use on household appliances relative to today

12 STRATEGY WITH TWO ELEMENTS 2. The energy of the future will come from renewable sources AMBITIOUS WORLD: DK AMBITIOUS WORLD: DK ENERGY MIX 2050

13 IN AN AMBITIOUS WORLD, BIOMASS WILL BE USED WHERE THERE ARE NOT ALTERNATIVES (i.e. probably not for routine heat and el production) Transport sector, where electricity not a possibility In industry as a reserve when the price of electricity is high and for processes requiring high temperature Electricity production when markets price is high and the other renewable energy sources cannot deliver Central heating in combination with electricity production so that heat from electricity production can be utilised

14 THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF THE FUTURE

15 THE COMMISSION S 40 RECOMMENDATIONS All focus on things that should be done during the next years in order to establish the framework that will best allow market mechanisms to promote the transition to green energy (i.e. tax on fossil fuel use) Are robust irrespective of whether the world is AMBITIOUS or UNAMBITIOUS Should be seen as a package to change an energy system, several balls have to be in the air at the same time!

16 FOCUS MUST BE ON THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE! A NUMBER OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME: Improved energy efficiency (also in industry!!) Establish infrastructure for green energy (WIND). Establish storage capacity in the system. Establish smart grid with built in intelligence. Expansion of transmission facilities (domestic and international) (WE WILL USE MORE ELECTRICITY!) Long-term planning (also to increase investment interest) Revamping of the tax system Gain experience with new transport technologies

17 FU and not least Demonstration! Strategic energy planning Action in international political fora (i.e., EU mm) standards! Legal framework periodic evaluation of progress.

18 Denmark already has a strong profile in green energy and energy efficiency i Energy technology as % of total export for EU-15 countries, ,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 Holland Belgien Luxemburg Portugal Grækenland Spanien Storbritannien Frankrig EU15 Østrig Tyskland Sverige Finland Italien Danmark 0,0 Irland Procent