Sustaining Canada s Marine Biodiversity: Responding to the Challenges Posed by Climate Change, Fisheries, and Aquaculture

Transcription

1 Sustaining Canada s Marine Biodiversity: Responding to the Challenges Posed by Climate Change, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Jeffrey Hutchings Dept Biology, Dalhousie University

2 The Report s recommendations were sent one week ago to several high-level Liberal Members of Parliament from British Columbia. Presentations: MPs/Senators on Parliament Hill Canada Oceans Lecture (Vancouver) Universities (Calgary, Victoria, Queens, Dalhousie, Tasmania); Public Lectures (e.g. Orillia, ON; Halifax) Among the top 15 papers ever read at the website of Environmental Reviews: (Hutchings et al Climate change, fisheries, and aquaculture: trends and consequences for Canadian marine biodiversity. Env. Rev. 20: ) Of major fish stocks supporting Canada s fisheries overall fish population sizes have declined by 50 per cent, according to a recent Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel. Oceana Canada, Sept 2015

3 Communication of science to decision-makers Ideal situation occurs when decisionmakers solicit Expert Panel advice Elements of Precaution: Recommendations for the Regulation of Food Biotechnology in Canada (2001) Spencer Barrett, U. Toronto Joyce Beare-Rogers, Ottawa Conrad Brunk, U. Waterloo Timothy Caulfield, U. Alberta Brian Ellis, UBC Marc Fortin, McGill Anthony Ham Pong, Ottawa Jeffrey Hutchings, Dalhousie John Kennelly, U. Alberta Jeremy McNeil, Laval Leonard Ritter, Guelph Karin Wittenberg, U. Manitoba Campbell Wyndham, Carleton Rickey Yada, Guelph Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel Report (2001)

4 (2012) Objectives: Document trends in marine biodiversity Describe trends in key biodiversity stressors and predict their consequences for sustaining biodiversity Audit Canada s performance in meeting national and international obligations to sustain biodiversity

5 Territorial Seas (Exclusive Economic Zone) Canada: 2,687,667 km 2 EU: 1,008,904 km 2 US: 796,441 km 2 Canada: An Ocean Nation? Longest coastline in the world (~230,000 km) 8 of 10 provinces and all 3 territories (86% of the population) border salt water

6 Johnstone Strait, BC Battle Harbour, Labrador Haida Gwaii, BC That Canada s the Government Immense Ocean of Canada Geography identify Comes international With Challenging leadership Ocean in Stewardship oceans stewardship Responsibilities as a top government priority. Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut Recommendation Cape Race, Newfoundland

7 Oceans: Some Global Considerations Habitat for 1-2 million species 90% of all ocean fisheries are coastal 1 in 3 humans depend on fish as their primary source of protein 45% of humans work within 100 km from a coast, generating ~61% of the world s total Gross National Product (GNP)

8 Ocean Ecosystem Services Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food Carbon sequestration Source of oxygen (> 50% of what we breathe) Socio-economic well-being of coastal communities Recreation, tourism, transportation What is the monetary value of ocean ecosystem services?

9 What is the Monetary Value of Canada s Ocean Ecosystem Services? Canada s Boreal Forest: $703 billion annually Secure access to wild, low-fat, highly nutritious food Southern Ontario s Greenbelt: $2.6 billion annually Mediterranean Sea: 26 billion annually

10 Status of Major Fish Stocks in Canada (Environment Canada, 2015) For species in the cautious and healthy zones Which species? Which fish populations? How were the zone categories scientifically determined?

11 B B MSY The Target Current fish biomass compared to biomass at maximum sustainable yield Canada Canada s marine fishes are at about 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target. Hutchings et al Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.

12 B B MSY The Target Western Pacific New Zealand South Africa Current fish biomass compared to biomass at maximum sustainable yield Protected Areas? Canada International International US EU Argentina Australia Canada s marine fishes are at about 0.3 of, or 70% lower than, the target. Hutchings et al Expert panel report on Sustaining Canadian Marine Biodiversity. Royal Society of Canada.

13 0.11% of Canada s oceans are closed to extractive use (CPAWS 2015) Percentage of area protected 0.8% of Canada s oceans are in Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) 10.5% of Canada s land (3 times size of Germany) is protected 2020 Terrestrial Marine

14 Increase the proportion of Canada s marine and coastal areas that are protected to five percent by 2017, and ten percent by 2020.

15 Canada s Marine Biodiversity Obligations VanderZwaag et al. (2012) Environmental Reviews Examples of National and International Biodiversity Obligations Protect biodiversity As determined by the Royal Adopt precautionary Society approach; of Canada adopt ecosystem in 2012, approach Protect and recover Canada species has at risk failed to protect Protect marine environment its aquatic from biodiversity, land-based activities despite having the legal and Integrated management plans for coastal & marine waters policy framework to do so. Maintain sustainable fisheries (Ecology& Action sustainable Centre, aquaculture Establish a network of Marine October Protected 2015) Areas (MPAs) Protect vulnerable, rare & fragile ecosystems

16 Recommendation That Fisheries & Oceans Canada rapidly increase its rate of statutory and policy implementation.

17 Recommendation That Canada implement statutory renewal to fulfill national and international commitments to sustain marine biodiversity. USA Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (1976) Australia Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) Norway Nature Diversity Act (2009)

18 What is biodiversity? Variability, or differences, among living organisms (e.g., species, populations, genes).

19 Canada s Marine Canada s Species Marine Richness Species Richness (Expert Panel, 2012) Trend data available Marine taxonomic group Estimated no. species: CANADA Estimated no. species: GLOBAL Microbes (Arctic) 9,500-54,000 Not estimated Phytoplankton 1,657 ~5,000 Macroalgae ~9,300 Cold-water corals 104 ~700 Sponges 265 5,000-10,000 Zooplankton 900 Not estimated Benthic infauna 2,127 Not estimated Fish: sharks, 61 ~1,100 skates, rays Fish: other (bony) ~14,200 Seabirds Mammals Hydrothermal vents

20 J Hutchings The Arctic Ogac Lake, Frobisher Bay (62 0 ) Phytoplankton J Hutchings West Coast of Ellesmere Island (81 0 ) Phytoplankton

21 Many marine mammals are increasing in abundance Trends in Marine Biodiversity

22 Independent body responsible for advising the federal government on the legal listing of Species at Risk in Canada

23 COSEWIC Species at Risk (April 1978-Nov 2015) (Extinct 15) Extirpated 23 Endangered 316 Threatened 167 Special Concern % of species at risk are marine 711

24 Canadian Marine Wildlife Species assessed by COSEWIC as being at risk Group Fishes 74 Mammals 34 Birds 9 Molluscs 3 Reptiles 4 Total 123 Wildlife Species at Risk (Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened, Special Concern) Trends in Marine Biodiversity

25 E Pacific Offshore Threatened (2008) Northern Resident Threatened (2008) 2008 est Coast Transient Threatened (2008) Southern Resident Endangered (2008) Killer Whale Diets Residents: salmon Transients: seals

26 Northern Right Whale Endangered Northern Bottlenose Whale Endangered

27 Canadian Marine Wildlife Species assessed by COSEWIC as being at risk Group Fishes 74 Mammals 34 Birds 9 Molluscs 3 Reptiles 4 Total 123 Wildlife Species at Risk (Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened, Special Concern) Trends in Marine Biodiversity

28 Ivory Gull (Endangered) : 80% decline But, Northern Gannets have been increasing

29 Canadian Marine Wildlife Species assessed by COSEWIC as being at risk Group Fishes 74 Mammals 34 Birds 9 Molluscs 3 Reptiles 4 Total 123 Wildlife Species at Risk (Extirpated, Endangered, Threatened, Special Concern) Trends in Marine Biodiversity

30 American Plaice (Atlantic) Porbeagle (Atlantic) 89% decline since 1961 Fishes Newfoundland and Labrador: 95% decline since 1960 Basking Shark (Pacific) >90% since mid 20 th century Canadian Shark Research Lab

31 British Columbia s Rockfishes Canary Rockfish Longspine Thornyhead Special Concern (2007) Threatened (2007): 80-96% Bocaccio Endangered (2013): 95-99% Rougheye Rockfish Special Concern (2007)

32 A loss of 2 billion breeding individuals By weight, loss of ~27 million adult humans Depletion of Canadian Atlantic cod Ogac Lake 90% decline Hutchings & Rangeley (2011) Can. J. Zool.

33 Trends in Biodiversity Trends in Biodiversity Stressors

34 Iqaluit Bergen Labrador Current Ottawa Marseille Gulf Stream Trends in Physical and Chemical Oceanography Temperature Salinity (salt content) Ocean stratification (layering) Acidity (ph) Oxygen content

35 Global climate change (IPCC, 2013) Since 1960, the oceans net heat uptake has been 30 times greater than that of the atmosphere Increased CO 2 leads to more carbonic acid (ocean acidification) and less calcium carbonate (vital for many invertebrates) Since 1971, 90% of the global heat uptake has been borne by the oceans; > 30% of CO 2 is absorbed by the oceans Axel Heiberg Island (78 0 N, 89 0 W) 15 August 2005

36 Gulf of St. Lawrence

37 Gulf of St. Lawrence is warming sea surface temperature increased ~2 o C since mid-1980s 2 warmest years in the last century occurred in the last 16yrs (surface air temperatures strongly correlated with sea surface water temperatures)

38 Gulf of St. Lawrence is experiencing reduced oxygen levels in deep (295m) waters deep waters briefly hypoxic in early 1960s (<30% O 2 saturation) hypoxic conditions have existed since 1984 British Columbia: all time series of at least 25 years in duration show declining trends in O 2 at depths between 100 and 400m (greatest reductions at m)

39 Sea Ice: Arctic and Atlantic

40 Decline in Gulf of St. Lawrence ice extent: ~14% in past 30 years ~14% per decade

41 Lower St. Lawrence Estuary m ph Increase in acidity since 1930s Dufour et al. (2010)

42 Trends in Multi-species Fishing Mortality (blue lines) Globally, over-fishing results in losses of: $50 billion annually; $2 trillion in past 30 years (World Bank) Fishing mortality (F) relative to F MSY Pacific and Atlantic Pacific Atlantic Overfishing: when BLUE line is above RED line

43 Canada Value of Canadian aquaculture ( ) peaked in 2006 (~ $1billion, in 2011 $) Aquaculture Production (tonnes) Total Finfish (mainly salmon) 0 Shellfish (mainly mussels & oysters)

44 The Expert Panel Report Overview Trends in Biodiversity & Its Stressors Effects of Stressors on Biodiversity

45 Consequences of Climate Change to Marine Biodiversity temporal/spatial changes in productivity alteration or loss of habitat spatial shifts in species distributions structural and functional changes to marine ecosystems (e.g., food webs) What will this mean for populations?

46 Thick-billed murre Arctic cod Arctic Ocean Capelin

47 Fisheries-induced alterations to marine food webs and marine ecosystems: Northwest Atlantic

48 Landed Value (x1000, in 2011 dollars) All fisheries Atlantic Pacific Pelagic/Other finfish fisheries Invertebrate fisheries Groundfish (bottom) fisheries Diadromous fisheries (e.g. salmon)

49 Elvers, in parking lot, Bangor, Maine, in the rain (20 Nov. 2015) Elvers (young American eel) American eel is a Threatened species As much as C$7,300 ( 5,100) per kilogram in 2015!

50 Pacific Ocean Salinity Temperature Salinity Temperature Dominant species of zooplankton (Neocalanus plumchrus) in Strait of Georgia is: decreasing in abundance blooming earlier (by 50 days, compared to 1970s) British Columbia s waters have become increasingly warmer and fresher Warmer Fresher What are the consequences of such phenological change for marine species (birds, fishes)? Warmer Fresher

51 Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size Pershing et al. (2015) Science

52 Cod Reproductive (Parental) Population Size Pershing et al. (2015) Science Small population size Small populations are more vulnerable to stochasticity than large populations.

53 Population Threshold? Population Productivity (per capita population growth rate; or a population s compound rate of interest ) A Tipping Point? The dome-shaped curve is indicative of an Allee Effect (or depensation). Abundance

54 Population size as a proportion of maximum observed size, N max Hutchings (2015) Proc. R. Soc. B Populations showing recovery after fishing stopped (black lines) Populations showing little or no recovery after fishing stopped (red lines)

55 Caveat: There are unlikely to be tipping points per se Population Threshold? Population Productivity (per capita population growth rate; or a population s compound rate of interest ) ~10% of maximum Abundance A Tipping Point? More important? The time period that abundance remains low.

56 Population size as a proportion of maximum observed size, N max Hutchings (2015) Proc. R. Soc. B Median number of years below 10% of N max Recovered/Rebuilt populations: 0 yr Populations exhibiting little or no recovery: 8.5 yr

57 The greater the depletion and the longer the period of depletion: the longer the recovery period the more uncertain the recovery

58 Allee effect greatly increases the time to recovery and the uncertainty of recovery Kuparinen, Keith & Hutchings (2014) Conserv. Biol. (2014)

59 Natural Mortality (M) r max Recruits Per capita per Spawner Population growth rate (r) Spawning Stock Biomass (parental population size) Fisheries Science: Implicit assumption is that death due to natural causes does not change with abundance.

60

61 Recruitment Biomass Natural mortality increasing as abundance declines. Natural Mortality Fishing (F) Swain and Benôit (2015) Mar Ecol Prog Ser

62 Porbeagle Atlantic cod Many depleted fishes show little or no recovery, despite massive reductions in fishing mortality. Cusk White hake Winter skate Northern wolffish Bocaccio

63 Forecasting recovery Northern Cod

64 Former Canadian Fisheries Minister John Crosbie Canadian Northern Cod Stock 99% decline

65 Northern cod today (Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences; October 2015) Currently at 26% of the limit reference point (B lim ) There are still no recovery targets or harvest control rules for northern cod Currently at ~5% of the stock size in early 1960s DFO (2015) CSAS Science Response 2015/018

66 Recommendation That the Government of Canada resolve regulatory conflicts of interest affecting Canada s progress in fulfilling obligations to sustain marine biodiversity.

67 Recommendation That the Government of Canada reduce the discretionary power in fisheries management decisions exercised by the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans.

68 Expert Panel s Over-arching Conclusion The simplest and best strategy: protect existing diversity rebuild depleted populations and species to restore natural diversity. Such a strategy will restore the natural resilience of Canada s ocean ecosystems to adapt in response to the challenges posed by climate change and other anthropogenic activities.