Ballard Power Systems. Slides for Cost Reduction

Transcription

1 Ballard Power Systems Slides for

2 Learning Curves 1.2 Learning Curves 1..8 Cost are reduced with each new generation of technology Mark 3 Unit Cost.6.4 Mark 5 Mark 7.2 Mark 9 Next Generation. Cumulative Output June 5, 23 2

3 Manufacturing Progress Catalyst Application 7 6 Cycle Time Loading Minutes Catalyst Loading Hand Application Discrete Screen Printing Rotary Screen Printing June 5, 23 3

4 Manufacturing Progress Flow-Field Plates 8 7 Cycle Time Plate Thickness Minutes Plate Thickness Plate Milling Embossing Improved Embossing June 5, 23 4

5 Manufacturing Progress - Sealing Minutes Cycle Time Part Count Glued Seals(Mk7) Manual LIM (Mk9) Automatic LIM (Mk9) Quantity June 5, 23 5

6 Describe what is currently known about the cost of this technology. We have a detailed understanding of the cost of a fuel cell. DaimlerChrysler has been working with Ballard since 1994 and we have completed numerous generations of the technology. Ballard has been working on all aspects of the fuel cell including the membrane, electrodes, catalysts, bipolar plates and associated systems and has made significant progress in each area. By working on each of these areas, Ballard has been able to develop the fundamental understanding of how a fuel cell works and how changes in each of these components and systems affect not only the performance of the fuel cell but the costs as well. In 1997, Ballard and DaimlerChrysler embarked on a 2-year manufacturing study to determine how fuel cells will be made and what the cost would be at high volume. The study concluded that at volumes of 3, automotive equivalents or greater per year, that Ballard would be able to manufacture the automotive fuel cell at US$2/kW. This is consistent with the DOE targets of US$5/kW for the entire automotive fuel cell system. Today we are not manufacturing at high volume, so the costs of the automotive fuel cell system are significantly higher and not representative of a product at high volume. As a result, we do not provide the cost or price of these systems today. While the automotive fuel cell is still in low volumes and are just starting to appear in small fleet applications, fuel cells are being sold commercially today by Ballard in the portable power market. Ballard introduced its NexaTM power module in September 21 and is now selling to over 5 customers worldwide. Ballard s customers are integrating the NexaTM power module into their product. Coleman Powermate was the first company to launch a product using Ballard s Nexa power module and is selling its AirGenTM fuel cell generator for US$5995 to industrial customers. This generator is a 1kW fuel cell generator. While Ballard has never given a price for its Nexa power module, it must be priced well below the AirGen price. In addition, Ballard has a goal for 23 to reduce the cost of its Nexa power module by 5% this year. June 5, 23 6

7 Describe how cost has fallen over time and as a function of accumulated output. As described above, fuel cell costs are coming down, however, it is premature to describe how costs are falling as a function of accumulated output. Today, fuel cell cost reduction is being done in a stepwise fashion, not an accumulated manufacturing learning curve. We are moving down a family of learning curves with each successive generation of technology. [Please see the first slide in the presentation entitled Learning Curves for details on the above and then use the three remaining slides to talk about how the costs have fallen over time and to address the next question about factors that have caused costs to fall.] June 5, 23 7

8 Identify the factors that have caused cost to fall in the past and what factors may operate to cause cost to fall in the future. Note where possible how actual declines in cost compare to forecasts. As described above, fuel cell costs have been coming down through successive generation of the technology. We are using different materials of construction, more efficient means of applying catalysts and developing simpler systems. We do not provide forecasts of our cost reduction efforts beyond what is stated in our public annual report goals. In the future, the increase in volume will be key in driving costs down. In addition the development of a mature supply chain will aid in lower costs. June 5, 23 8

9 Identify any obvious barriers to the adoption and diffusion of this technology other than cost. There are several barriers to the adoption of fuel cell technology in the transportation market including lifetime, durability and the widespread availability of hydrogen. DaimlerChrysler and Ballard are continuing to improve the fuel cell technology and are on a path to provide noncompromise vehicles for mass commercialization by around 21. Many other companies, universities and research institutions are addressing the issues around hydrogen. This includes producing, distributing and storing it in a cost effective and safe manner. June 5, 23 9

10 Describe public policies that would most effectively lower the barriers (if any) and lower cost in the future. Programs similar to what President Bush announced during his State of the Union address are the type of programs the fuel cell industry needs to accelerate the adoption fuel cells. This includes funding for the development of the hydrogen infrastructure, incentives for early purchasers of fuel cells and governments being early fleet customers. In addition, governments can help in the adoption of the technology by creating legislation that is supportive to fuel cells and other renewable or clean power generation technology. Finally, another role government can play is to foster the development of more public-private partnerships like the California Fuel Cell Partnership that can help in setting codes and standards, identifying future barriers, providing public outreach and education, help develop the hydrogen infrastructure and be a participant in various field trial demonstrations. June 5, 23 1

11 Describe the likely benefits (either qualitatively or quantitatively) that would be derived from the policy and the costs of the policy if known It is difficult to provide the benefits or the costs of these policy initiatives without knowing the specifics. As an example, if the government would be an early purchaser of fuel cell vehicles, the benefit would be an increased volume of fuel cells helping lower costs and increase the manufacturing know-how. This also helps the industry move closer to the mass commercialization of the technology. The cost of the program would be the lease costs of the fuel cell vehicles, which would be significantly higher than traditional vehicles today. Without knowing the number of vehicles and the timing of the purchase or lease it is difficult for me to estimate the actual benefits or costs. June 5, 23 11