Review of the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) Second Order Draft (SOD)

Transcription

1 Review of the IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) Second Order Draft (SOD) A submission by ATSE (Energy Forum) to the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism 23 July 2010

2 The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering (ATSE) 1 has established an Energy Forum which is addressing in detail energy technology matters in relation to climate change, including the maters raised in the draft IPCC report. ATSE is pleased to have the opportunity to respond to the request from the Department. ATSE would have been prepared to undertake a more exhaustive review and comment on the draft from the considerable resources available to it had more time been made available. Summary The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering (ATSE) generally concurs with the factual data presented in the draft. It is not clear in the draft that the basic proposition is to shift energy supply from a minimum cost market to a minimum carbon market, which will have significant changes on market structure and grid structure/operations. The draft does not sufficiently emphasise that a portfolio of technologies (both renewable energy (RE) and non RE) will be necessary to sustain a secure, reliable and economic electricity supply. The draft tends to deal with each technology in isolation. RE consists of two distinct forms of generating capacity, one being despatchable similar to the existing generating plant and the other variable being available about 30% of the time with limited capability of predicting output at a specific time. With the connection of variable RE generation, the power system becomes more complex and harder to control as more variable capacity is added to the system. The Draft offers limited guidance on how and in what circumstances the technologies might be deployed and the economic, financial and other system consequences, especially in respect of less developed economies. The draft does not contain a clear statement that many forms of RE will be more expensive than nuclear or low emission fossil fuels for decades to come without ongoing government intervention. System integration issues are inadequately covered. The analyses and references provided, as with much of the draft material, is very EU and USA centric. It should be broadened to reflect relevant issues to developing and low population density and isolated developed countries, including institution building. The draft would benefit from an Executive Summary 1 The Academy was established in 1976 and is one of Australia s four learned national Academies, which have complementary roles and work together both nationally and internationally. The Academy has about 800 elected Fellows comprising the leadership of applied science and engineering across the country. 2 P age

3 Overview Commentary The purpose of the draft Technical Summary is to provide information for policy makers, the private sector and civil society [p6/34], presumably to inform and influence policy makers, to help trigger technological developments aimed at climate change mitigation and adaptation and to generate informed debate. However the reasons for preparing this lengthy report, or the target audience, are not made sufficiently clear, bearing in mind the wide availability of and reliance placed upon the excellent IEA documentation referenced. The draft is thus broadly comprehensive within its stated technology boundaries at this time. The Australian Academy of Technological Sciences & Engineering (ATSE) generally concurs with the factual data presented. The draft is perhaps needlessly long, summarising reliable existing data on RE generation technologies. However it offers limited guidance on how and in what circumstances the technologies might be deployed and the economic, financial and other system consequences, especially in respect of less developed economies. Much emphasis is given to the direct and indirect benefits of renewable energy (RE) sources and applications. However the draft is often unclear and strong on rhetoric, with no clear statement that many forms of RE will be more expensive than nuclear or low emission fossil fuels for decades to come without ongoing government intervention. Indeed limited rigorous system analysis is given to well documented and critically important technical and economic issues including: technology capital costs and comparisons with non RE alternatives on a subsidy free basis, noting that to do otherwise will distort future policy interventions, the additional cost of RE subsidies such as feed in tariffs, carbon prices, national grant and incentive schemes and renewable energy targets, the need for and cost of supporting infrastructure including the system standby capacity needed for most RE technologies, the impact of intelligent or smart grids, issues of power system stability in integrated national grids having a wider portfolio of generation technologies than RE alone, the difference between variable and despatchable RE generation resources and their differing impacts on integrated power systems, the scalability of RE alternatives, assuming that the RE future is oriented towards large, grid connected installations, and the provision of secure reliable baseload supply due to RE capacity factor constraints. Other specific overall comments include: 3 P age

4 The draft needs more rigour in terminology and the use of terms. It is assumed that the IPCC has reporting and terminology standards which should be followed. The draft in some places discusses cross-sectoral substitutions (eg electricitytransport); however its tenor is grid oriented, focusing on the competitive electricity market position of RE versus fossil fuels. Nuclear energy, despite being a low emissions technology (LET), gets passing mention only. It is incorrectly categorised with fossil fuels. The costs and impacts of social and environmental externalities of generation technologies, apart from carbon, are not adequately discussed although they must play a significant role in technology evaluation and selection. Externalities of relevance in generation technology selection include health impacts; solid, liquid and gaseous emissions of all types to land, sea or air; noise and land value sequestered. The draft is distinctly EU/USA centric in its approach. These are environments in which large interconnected grids provide a near infinite bus. However RE issues, impacts and policies differ between countries to reflect local resources, institutional capacities and consumer needs. It should be broadened to reflect relevant issues to developing and low population density and isolated developed countries, including institution building. Australian power grids are relatively small, long and thin arising from the integration of state-based power systems linked by limited inter-connectors. Regional RE additions have already led to tight situations which may be exacerbated with further incentive driven RE deployment. This challenge is reflected in many developing countries and needs to be addressed in the draft. Draft chapters appear to reflect the knowledge and research interests of individual authors, rather than focusing holistically on opportunities for balanced RE commercial development. The draft is still disjointed and chapter oriented. Content imbalances (eg 168 pages for bioenergy, 45 for geothermal) and chapter styles need to be harmonised. Each technology chapter needs a clear, consistent and concise statement of comparative technology maturity and potential. The draft needs to explore different supply and end use structures afforded by alternative RE technologies; for example the role and potential of building oriented solar energy applications. The draft needs to distinguish early on the differences between variable and dispatchable RE resources. Ideally the technologies could have been segregated accordingly to allow proper assessment of each group, so avoiding later duplication. The importance of mapping and evaluation of RE resources needs to be more strongly emphasised. Consideration is needed of the education and training of management and technological personnel to understand and support RE deployment. 4 P age

5 ATSE offers the following observations on electric power systems to help clarify important system integration concepts relevant to the deployment of RE generation technologies: Electric power systems Conventional electric power systems utilise mostly despatchable generation from fossil, nuclear or water resources having an availability factor of about 95% and capable of continuously system demand. Note that availability factor (the readiness of plant to generate whenever called upon) differs from capacity factor (the ratio of actual energy generated compared to that which could be generated were the source 100% operational at full nameplate rating). RE consists of two distinct forms of generating capacity, one being despatchable similar to the existing generating plant and the other variable being available about 30% of the time with limited capability of predicting output at a specific time. Despatchable forms of RE include water, biomass and geothermal. Variable forms of generation include wind, solar and wave action. With the introduction of variable generation the power system must now match the requirements of its customers plus or minus the variable generation output. With the customer requirement minus variable generation case the complementary despatchable generation may be forced to a less efficient capacity of even out of service. With customer requirement plus variable generation there may not be sufficient despatchable generation available to meet the combined demand. These factors must be evaluated thoroughly by any transmission system operator as higher proportions of variable RE are contemplated for the power system. References and further support Contributions by ATSE, related work by the International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) academies and others of relevance to the IPCC process are referenced below. It is thought these documents can be reliably referenced by the authors to help in overcoming some of the issues referred to above. ATSE would however have been prepared to make more exhaustive comment on the draft from the considerable resources available to it had adequate time been made available. The comments following on individual text sections are drawn from a number of experienced ATSE fellows. It is hoped they are of value; ATSE holds itself ready to provide further assistance if called upon. 5 P age

6 Comments specific to individual chapters Technical Summary The draft is dense and inconsistent, more of a technology summary than a technical summary of the proposed report. It needs to have the key points highlighted upfront, in effect an Executive Summary to the Technical Summary. As noted above, system integration issues are inadequately covered (see also Chapter 8). It is not clear if the proposition is to shift from a minimum cost market to a minimum carbon market. If the latter then significant changes to market structures and transmission and distribution grid structures and operations would follow. However any such change would require clear and well understood policy support. The draft tends to confuse energy efficiency with demand efficiency (ie demand management) The draft does sufficiently emphasise that a portfolio of technologies (both RE and non RE) will be necessary to sustain a secure, reliable and economic electricity supply. The draft tends to deal with each technology in isolation. In considering RE integration into the electricity supply system it is essential first to understand and have answers, on a nation by nation basis, to the following questions: o what are the natural resources available to a nation in the first place? o what technologies does a nation have available and with what expertise? o is the nation faced with a potential energy security problem? o how does energy rate in the national balance of payments and trade? o what human health issues are created or avoided? o what environmental issues are created or avoided? o what human perceptions, preferences, biases and political propensities will influence decisions? Chapter 1: Renewable Energy and Climate Change The draft needs to be expressed in the context of low-carbon emissions rather than low carbon production. It is noted that CCS technologies are dismissed as producing CO2. This dismisses the objectives of emission reduction by CCS. The chapter needs to make it clear that nuclear electricity is a valid low emissions option. Some 14% of the world s electricity supply is generated from nuclear energy. Chapter 2: Bioenergy The draft focuses more strongly on low technology agricultural options rather than emerging high technologies such as GM algae, lignocellulosics and pyrolysis. These technologies are well covered in the Geosciences Australian Energy Assessment report and the ATSE reports referenced below. 6 P age

7 There needs to be a better consideration of the whole of life cycle emissions of the various bioenergy options. It appears to be dealt with in a superficial way, as are the related economics, and may indicate a gap in the expertise base of the authors. Chapter 3: Solar Energy This chapter needs significant editing to clarify the language and definitions used. As noted in the overall comments above this chapter is very EU centric. Applications for remote grids and off grid supplies are arguably more appropriate markets for solar PV systems. A number of differing solar PV technologies appear to be considered collectively in terms of maturity and economic analysis. There is considerable need for an improved understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the many PV technologies and advanced materials and manufacturing techniques now available or under development. The chapter concentrates inadequately on low technology solar options, especially solar water heating. This is unfortunate; solar water heating is one of the most economically attractive of solar energy options in that energy storage is embodied in most commercial applications. The draft tends to be too focused on grid scale applications; thus inadequately exploring distributed usage, arguably the most attractive market space for economic application. The draft is too cell technology centric. More emphasis is needed on improving efficiencies in the technology supply chain rather than on cell efficiency. Chapter 4: Geothermal Energy This chapter is very superficial. Considerable work is needed for it to add value to the IPCC process Chapter 5: Hydro Energy The chapter tends to give the impression that all economically available hydro potential has been developed; a particularly EU and USA view. It thus deals inadequately with the potential for large scale as well as small and micro scale hydro applications in the developing world. It needs to give more emphasis to the untapped potential of mini and micro hydro. These are vital liberators at the village and community level. More emphasis is needed on the importance of hydro storages, especially in mixed technology interconnected systems, as well as the importance of pumped storage for load levelling. 7 P age

8 Chapter 6: Ocean Energy This chapter is also superficial. Deals mainly with large-scale technologies rather than evolving technologies Chapter 7: Wind Energy This is a substantial chapter on a mature technology. No further comments of substance are made beyond those given in the Technical Summary review above. Chapter 8: Integration This chapter effectively says (p10) that there is little knowledge about system integration but smart grids will surely provide the answers. The analyses and references provided, as with much of the draft material, is very EU and USA centric. The chapter fails to explain adequately the need for base-load as a part of the generation portfolio. It appears to assume that the EU and USA systems, with effectively infinite grid connections and interstate generation backup, are taken as the norm. Such major systems comprise high capacity interconnected transmission grids with considerable inbuilt redundancy and are supplied by widespread and extensive nuclear and fossil fuel generation plants. The chapter fails adequately to tackle transition issues. These are highly complex and specialist issues. It is suggested that it is possible that the author team may not have had adequate access to this expertise. Likewise the impact of substantial distributed RE generators, the majority probably wind and solar, on grid operation is not extensively or adequately analysed. Does not attempt to assess and cost the externalities of the impact of RE on grid and market operations (eg spinning reserve, operational constraints) The text confuses energy efficiency with demand management. The two are quite different albeit related issues. The analysis presented is generally grid scale and large grid oriented; again seemingly from the EU and USA viewpoint. The report should also seek to identify distributed options where smart grid applications would be appropriate and where different supply-demand relationships (eg building integrated solar) and cross-sector substitutions (eg transport/electricity) would offer holistic and economically optimised solutions. Conventional electric power systems utilise mostly despatchable generation from fossil, nuclear or water resources with an availability of about 95%. This is capable of continuously matching the customer demand. 8 P age

9 Chapter 9: RE in the Context of Sustainable Development Issues, impacts and policies will be different for different countries, so the report needs to be broadened from the EU/USA-centric analysis to cover issues for developing and low population density and isolated developed countries Chapter 10: Mitigation Potential and Costs Due to shortage of available time no comments are offered at this stage. Chapter 11: Policy, Financing and Implementation This chapter, as with others, is far too EU centric. More consideration and analysis needs to be given to the major developing economies (China and India) and the emerging but still underdeveloped economies (typically African nations) References ATSE has undertaken significant work on issues noted above within the Australian context. Recent documentation, based on accepted source data and rigorously analysed by experienced independent Fellows, could add authority to the Technical Summary and related chapters. Relevant documentation includes: 1. ATR Workshop 2008 Energy Technology for Climate Change Accelerating the Technology Response 2. ATSE Report 2008 The Hidden Costs of Electricity Externalities of Power Generation in Australia 3. ATSE Report 2008 Biofuels for Transport: A Roadmap for Development in Australia 4. ATSE SES Workshop 2010 Secure Electricity Systems for 2050 The policy and technology challenges 5. ATSE Report (in progress) 2010 Accelerating Technology Deployment for Climate Change 6. ATSE is leading CAETS Working Group report Deployment of Low Emissions Technologies for Electric Power Generation in Response to Climate Change : see: a. Description of ATSE work on financial analysis of energy options; pps b. Renewable energies covered in Section 4 pps See power footprints discussion p RAEng report on energy technologies Generating the Future ; see: report.pdf - see Appendix 1 of that report. 8. Dr Peter Seligman Australian Sustainable Energy by the numbers ; see: 9 P age