2Q11 results and comments

Transcription

1 OPPORTUNITY DAY 19 th August Q11 results and comments 1

2 Disclaimer The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Banpu plc. Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction. 2

3 1. Focus: Bharinto and Tandung Mayang 2. Coal divisions 3. Coal market 4. Power division 5. Financial summary Appendices 3

4 1. Focus: Bharinto and Tandung Mayang 4

5 New integrated operations groups ITM operations in Kalimantan 1 2 Palangkaraya Kitadin Td.Mayang Bunyut Port Trubaindo 1 Bharinto 2 Samarinda Balikpapan Indominco Bontang Coal Terminal Kitadin Embalut Product coal conveyor, stacking, stockpile ROM stockpile South Block 1 (Dayak Besar) Bunyut Port Maha kam River Kedangpahu North Block River PT. TRUBAINDO TANDUNG MAYANG ROM stockpile Mine stockyard WEST BLOCK Santan River EAST BLOCK Asphalt haul road Port stock yard Operations Ports Hauling Stockpile Crusher Bontang City Bontang Coal Terminal Post Panamax Inland 95,000DWT conveyor 4km Banjarmasin Jorong Port Jorong PT. BHARINTO South Block 2 (Biangan) Going forward, ITM will rationalize and consolidate its Kalimantan operations into three operational groups Each group will have its own integrated mining, crushing and logistics system Objective will be increased efficiency, optimization and productivity The Trubaindo-Bharinto operations consist of the Bunyut barge port, Trubaindo North Block, Trubaindo S. Block and Bharinto Operations group target output (medium term): Mtpa The Bharinto project represents a low risk and low cost brownfield expansion of its operations group The Indominco-Tandung Mayang operations consist of the Bontang Coal Terminal, Indominco W. Block, Indominco E. Block, Kitadin Embalut and Tandung Mayang Operations group target output (medium term): 15 Mtpa The Tandung Mayang project also represents a low risk and low cost brownfield expansion of the Bontang operations group 5

6 Bharinto and Tandung Mayang (overview) Bharinto Tandung Mayang First output 4Q Q 2011 Target annual output 2-4 Mt 2-3 Mt Coal quality* 6,800 kcal/kg Sulfur 0.8% 6,800 kcal/kg Sulfur 1.5% Reserves 45.5 Mt 9.7 Mt Strip ratio (avg.) 7.8 bcm/t 15.0 bcm/t Logistics to ship Truck Bunyut barge loader Truck BoCT ship loader Capital expenditure US$ 44 m (US$ 39 m spent to date on infrastructure) US$ 30 m (US$ 26 m spent-to-date on equipment) *Air dried basis 6

7 Current status Bharinto Tandung Mayang Crushing plant construction under commissioning Already started the pre-stripping activity in 1Q11 at TDMY KP Mining contractor selected in March 2011 Coal production will restart in 3Q11 Site preparation underway to start pre-stripping activity in 3Q11 FY11 output 0.5 Mt FY11 output : 0.2 Mt 7

8 Reserves INDICATIVE ONLY Bharinto Tandung Mayang OB 355 M bcm OB 146 M bcm Average SR 7.8 bcm/t Average SR 15.0 bcm/t Reserves 45.5Mt 6,800 kcal/kg (adb) Sulfur: 0.8% Ash: 4% Reserves 9.7 Mt 6,800 kcal/kg (adb) Sulfur: 1.5% Ash: 4% 8

9 Bharinto schematic Aerial view schematic MAHAKAM RIVER BUNYUT PORT CR4 A Cross section schematic B TRUBAINDO SOUTH BLOCK 15 KM. TRUBAINDO NORTH BLOCK HIGH WALL BENCHES Approx depth 90 metres BHARINTO A Total 84 km ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY B SECTION LINE Bharinto project timeline Acquired concession Feasibility study Construction commenced Q309 First output: 0.2 Mtpa 9

10 Conversion of resources to reserves at Bharinto Current expected mine life of Bharinto based on existing reserves is until 2024 Reserves 45.5 Mt Subject to further feasibility assessment, mining permit and coal price outlook, Banpu expects some potential conversion of resources to reserves at Bharinto Resources 298 Mt 10

11 Tandung Mayang schematic MINED OUT AREA Aerial view schematic Cross section schematic A 10 km TANDUNG MAYANG SECTION LINE B CR1 WEST BLOCK INDOMINCO CR2 CR3 EAST BLOCK BONTANG CITY Mined out (Indominco) A TM extension OB B HIGH WALL BENCHES Approx depth BONTANG COAL TERMINAL 160 metres ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY Tandung Mayang project timeline Operation ceased Feasibility study Closure process Tandung Mayang unit worked as contractor on adjacent IMM concession 2008 Operation to restart in 3Q /16 11

12 Indicative ROM output targets In million tonnes (Mt) Bharinto SR (bcm/t) Tandung Mayang SR (bcm/t) [16.0]* na * Actual strip ratio will be higher (approx 28x) but will include advanced overburden removal which will be amortized over the life of the mine INDICATIVE ONLY 12

13 Bharinto project photos Safety talk Checking automation Coal feeder Truck dumping 13

14 Bharinto project photos Coal handling equipment commissioning 14

15 Tandung Mayang project photo TANDUNG MAYANG INDOMINCO (mined out) m 1,500 1, Plan view 15

16 2. Coal divisions 16

17 2. Coal divisions (a) (b) (c) Indonesia coal China coal Australia coal 17

18 Indonesian coal operations in 2011 ITM OPERATIONS & PROJECTS (2011 saleable output) Central Kalimantan Palangkaraya TRUBAINDO 7.3 Mt East Kalimantan INDOMINCO 15 Mt Bunyut Port BHARINTO 0.2 Mt South Kalimantan Balikpapan KITADIN TANDUNG MAYANG 0.5 Mt Samarinda Bontang Coal Terminal Captive coalfired power project KITADIN- EMBALUT 1.0 Mt Coal output : 2Q11 : 5.8 Mt 2011e : 25 Mt Project updates: Indominco : Feasibility study on East Block washing plant underway Bontang Coal Terminal : Expansion of stock area and installation of 6 tunnel conveyors are almost completed POWER Operation Project Banjarmasin JORONG 1.0 Mt Trubaindo : Undergoing feasibility of additional crushing plant at Bunyut Port COAL Operation Project Jorong Port 18

19 Embalut E Block TDMY W Block Indonesian quarterly output and SR analysis STRIP RATIO (bcm/t) STRIP RATIO (bcm/t) STRIP RATIO (bcm/t) STRIP RATIO (bcm/t) W Block 12.5 E Block Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3.5Mt 1.0 COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 4.3Mt 3.6Mt 3.4Mt 3.1Mt COAL OUTPUT (Mt) 2.1Mt COAL OUTPUT (Mt) COAL OUTPUT (Mt) Mt 1.3Mt 1.5Mt 1.7Mt 0.1Mt 0.4Mt 0.3Mt 0.4Mt 0.3Mt 0.3Mt 0.2Mt 0.3Mt 0.3Mt 0.4Mt Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Indominco-Bontang 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Trubaindo 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Jorong 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Kitadin - Embalut CV: kcal/kg CV: kcal/kg CV: 5300 kcal/kg CV: 5750 kcal/kg Overall stripping ratio for 2011 will be lower than last year Additional contractor and equipment helped improve performance since April SR will increase in order to recover remaining reserves as per mine plan Start mining in difficult area so variation in SR is expected Note: output figures are saleable coal 19

20 Banpu average selling prices in 3Q10 Banpu average selling prices in 2Q11 USD/tonne Monthly BJI Quarterly BJI Quarterly ASP ASP vs. spot BJI trend shows a mix of pricing (LT/MT/ST) Despite increases in product margins, the increase in lower CV tonnages hampers ASP increases Still, the gap between BJI and ASP narrowed in 2Q ASP 2Q11 $96.5 (+10% QoQ) BJI* August 11, 2011 $

21 Indicative 2011 coal sales Coal Coal sales sales contract contract and and pricing pricing status status Comment Contract Status Contracted Fixed Price Status Sales target remains at 25 Mt, assuming dry season continues 97% 100% 82% Almost fully sold and more so than at same time in recent years 3% Uncontracted Unpriced 4% 14% Index Remaining unsold is exposed to downward market pressure, but limited volume As of 1 Aug 2011 TARGET SALES 2011: C. 25 Mt 21

22 Coal sales by geographic destination (ITM and Thai) Indonesia coal sales by destination 6M11 (10.7 Mt) 1.3 Mt ITALY 1.4Mt Mt CHINA 5.1Mt 2011 HONG KONG S.KOREA JAPAN Mt 1.2 Mt 4.5Mt 4.2Mt 1.8Mt 0.4Mt 2.6Mt 0.6Mt 0.3Mt 2.3Mt 2.2Mt 2.2Mt INDIA Mt 1.0Mt TAIWAN Mt 2.5Mt OTHERS* 0.9Mt 0.9Mt 1.1Mt 0.5Mt *Includes small, nonregular purchasers THAILAND INDONESIA Mt 1.6Mt 1.3Mt 0.8Mt 0.7Mt 0.7Mt PHILIPPINES 1.8Mt 1.1Mt 0.6Mt 2011 Mid-to-High CV Low-to-Mid CV 2011 trend expectation 22

23 4. Coal divisions (a) (b) (c) Indonesia coal China coal Australia coal 23

24 China coal operations BANPU CHINA 2011 COAL PRODUCTION TARGETS* PRICE vs. COST (RMB/t) PRICE vs. COST (RMB/t) Gaohe (45%), Shanxi 6 Mt Q Q11 AVERAGE COAL PRICE PRODUCTION COST Q10 1Q11 2Q11 AVERAGE COAL PRICE PRODUCTION COST BEIJING COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM) COAL OUTPUT (Mt ROM) 0.44Mt 0.38Mt 0.35Mt 0.34Mt 0.39Mt 0.46Mt 0.42Mt Hebi (40%), Henan 1.5 Mt 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Gaohe 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Hebi Zhong Tai Mining CV: Kcal/kg POWER COAL Operation Project Operation Project CV: Kcal/kg Banpu 45% Under pre-production stage. Banpu 40% Hebi obtained approval from the Henan Energy Bureau in early July for the expansion of * ROM production its annual coal production capacity to 1.5 Mt. 24

25 China coal project: Gaohe Obtained approval from Shanxi Coal Industry Bureau in June to proceed in the Unified Test Run, a key milestone to enter the production stage next year. Load commissioning and test run of a new preparation plant to be completed in Q Set up of second longwall production team and longwall equipment test run in Q

26 4. Coal divisions (a) (b) (c) Indonesia coal China coal Australia coal 26

27 Australia coal Inglenook Ivanhoe North WESTERN OPERATIONS Neubecks Charbon Airly Clarence Open-cut mine Underground mine Project Power station Port Road Rail Note: Centennial equity ownership 100% unless shown in brackets Angus Place Springvale Newstan Lochiel (development project) Awaba Mandalong Wollongong NORTHERN OPERATIONS Sydney Port Kembla (PKCT) Newcastle Newcastle (NCIG) Port Waratah (PWCS) Myuna Mannering ROM output (equity basis) : 2Q11 : 3.77 Mt Key operation and project updates: Mandalong: Longwall move completed in mid-april as planned Angus Place: Slower production in preparation for longwall move in July. Production is to resume in mid- August Charbon: New open-cut mining resulted in 37% increase in YTD output Newstan Lochiel: Analyzing preferred mining plans 27

28 Australia coal in 2Q11 (equity basis) CENTENNIAL ROM Output (Mt) Sales (Mt) Revenue (AUD m) Export / Domestic (Mt) Western Operations Airly (100%) Angus Place (50%) Export Charbon (95%) Clarence (85%) Springvale (50%) 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e 1Q11 2Q11 Northern Operations Domestic Awaba (100%) Newstan (100%) Mandalong (100%) Mannering (100%) Myuna (100%) 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e 1Q11 2Q11 1Q11 2Q11 1Q11 2Q11 28

29 Australia Indicative export sales 2011 Coal Coal sales export contract sales contract and pricing and pricing status status Sales by destination 6M11 Contract Status Price Status Total 3.55 Mt 100% 88% Contracted Fixed 78% Other 0.5 Mt Taiwan 1.3 Mt 12% Korea 0.8 Mt Uncontracted Unpriced 7% 15% 0.9 Mt Index Japan As of 30 June 2011 TARGET EXPORT SALES 2011: C. 7 Mt (100% basis) 29

30 Update on Australia carbon tax Overview of Australia carbon tax Effective 1 July 2012: Carbon price of A$23/t and rising in real terms by 2.5% per annum in the following 2 years. Effective 1 July 2015: Carbon price based on flexible price cap-and-trade scheme. Gases subject to carbon pricing include CO2, methane (from UG coal mines), nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons (from aluminium smelting). A significant amount of assistance package will be provided during the transition period. Impact on coal sector Low impact, as most Australian coal mines do not release much CO2. Without assistance package, an average non-gassy mine is estimated to pay A$1.4/t of carbon price while a gassy mine would pay approx. A$7.4/t. A$1.3 billion allocated to the Coal Sector Job Package to provide assistance over 6 years to gassy coal mines who release at least 0.1 tonne of CO2-equivalent per tonne of saleable coal. Assistance based on historical emission data only, not be eligible for new mines or expanded production of existing mines. A separate assistance package of A$70 m will be provided to coal mines that implement carbon abatement technology over the transitional 6-year period. Source: Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, the Australian Government 30

31 3. Coal market 31

32 Main 2011 coal market driver update Weather Chinese Demand World Growth Indonesia wet season was normal, but some operations more affected than others. Dry season seems normal to good. Chinese winter was normal but now that water shortages are eased, hydro is up and summer so far mixed Australian storms/floods damage recovering Downgrade import forecast Demand is stronger than expectations in total but unevenly distributed Grid transmission/generation infrastructure capped effective demand in 1H Production increased beyond demand increase, but again levels vary by region Imports weak in 1Q, strong in 2Q but likely below expectations in 3Q/4Q World growth forecast 3.1%, Asian growth forecast 6.9% Uncertainty impacting forecasts due to European and USA debt concerns, Middle East/N. Africa unrest, exchange rate trends and inflation But oil, food and raw material cost will have a gradual impact Sources: Country Forecast July 2011 from The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited

33 US$ / tonne Banpu average selling prices in 3Q10 Thermal coal benchmark prices Coal price benchmarks FOB Richards Bay 6000 kcal/kg, NAR FOB Newcastle 6300 kcal/kg, GAR FOB Kalimantan 5900 kcal/kg, GAR FOB Kalimantan 5000 kcal/kg, GAR Newcastle price stable RB and domestic prices softening Indonesian prices decrease due to Chinese purchase slow down and Indonesian production increases Benchmark pricing held up by steady growth but even more so by currency and financial movements affecting paper prices European pricing further underpinned by higher cost of competing fuels, eg. gas and declining carbon credit price 60 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 33

34 China thermal coal market review China thermal coal market review China domestic coal prices China thermal coal imports and exports Datong super mixed coal (6,000 kcal/kg) Shanxi super mixed coal (5,500 kcal/kg) Common mixed coal (4,000 kcal/kg) RMB End Jun 11 9 Aug 11 (RMB) (RMB) Datong Shanxi Common Mt 5 Mt less than prior forecast 1, Net import 79 Mt Net import c. 67 Mt 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11e Source: 9 August 2011 Sources: China Coal Report June 2011, MS&L Estimates 34

35 4. Power division 35

36 Thailand power : BLCP in 2Q11 (100% basis) Bt. million Q-Q: 5% Y-Y: -10% 2,587 2,215 2,334 Q-Q: 20% Y-Y: -21% Q-Q: 6% Y-Y: -5% 5,088 4,585 4,858 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Availability Payment (AP) Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Total revenue Q-Q: 4% Y-Y: 0% 529 Q-Q: 10% Y-Y: -14% 2,250 2,154 2,245 1,965 1,536 1, Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Energy Payment (EP) 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 EBIT 96% 95% 96% Q10 1Q11 2Q11 FX loss Q-Q: 9% Y-Y: -10% 2,469 2,046 2,226 Equity income* 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Dispatch (%) * Based on Banpu s 50% interest 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 EBITDA 36

37 Thailand power: Hongsa project in Laos 1,800 MW mine-mouth lignite-fired power plant project Power plant area: Slope Paving (pre-construction work) Mar-2011 COD targeted in 2015 Partnership between Banpu (40%), Ratch (40%) and Lao government (20%) Dam: Nam Louk Outlet Conduit. Mining Diversion: Dump Area at Ban Sri Mongkol O&M Agreement with EGAT signed on 23 February 2011 NTP for power plant EPC issued on 1 March 2011 Overall project progress on schedule June

38 China power in 2Q11 BIC 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Sales* (USD m) EBITDA (USD m) Utilization (hours) Power tariff (RMB/kwh) Coal price** (RMB/t) Luannan Hebei Province Power 100MW; Steam 128tph (Banpu 100% ) Lower Q on Q revenue and hence EBIDA due to non heating season without residential heat sales ,247 2,033 1, Zhengding Hebei Province Power 48MW; Steam 180tph (100%) Lower Q on Q revenue and hence EBIDA due to non heating season without residential heat sales ,345 2,069 1, Zouping Shandong Province Power 100MW; Steam 430tph (70%) High sales from both power and steam helped improve EBITDA ,911 1,621 1, Note: 100% basis, * Unaudited figures, ** Including transportation 38

39 5. Financial summary 39

40 CORPORATE EVENTS EXTERNAL EVENTS Key events Radioactive water leakage in Fukushima Pheu Thai Party wins general elections US raising debt ceiling Capital market flows back to US Instability in the Middle East and North Africa BoT raises interest rate 0.25% Euro debt crisis and E. Coli outbreak Australia carbon tax S&P downgrades US AAA, markets tumble, gold prices soar 1Q11 2Q11 July August 3 March 11 March 11 May 10 August 4 Jan Announce ment of license expiry at Daning 23 Feb Banpu FY10 results, dividend and Reserves & Resources update 23 Feb Announcement of 2H10 Bt 8 dividend to be paid on 29 Apr 2011 FY10 Analyst Meeting Divested 56% in Daning 8 March Acquired 12.39% in Hunnu 1 April 4 April Annual General Meeting Issue $500M equivalent of THB bond Banpu 1Q11 results 12 May 1Q11 Analyst Meeting Banpu 2Q11 results 11 August 2Q11 Analyst Meeting 40

41 Banpu in 2Q 2011 COAL SALES 8.94 Mt Unit: Bt. million Down 0.1 Mt -2% Q-Q Coal Power Total Y-Y Q-Q Revenue 23,649 1,239 24,888 68% 3% Equity income % 59% EBIT 5, ,614-3% 16% Net income 2, ,161-17% -66% 41

42 Sales revenues Bt. million USD 791m USD 822 m USD 458 m 24,178 +3% Q Q +68% Y Y 24,888 Power -13% Q Q +15% Y - Y 14,840 Coal Australia -3% Q- Q Coal Indonesia Power Coal Australia +8% Q Q +14% Y - Y Coal Indonesia Note: USD exchange rate is the average exchange rate of the corresponding period, Revenue from other is included in Coal. 42

43 Coal gross margin 2Q11 : 41% Bt. million Bt. million 9,486 8,700 8,890 Coal sales Average Indonesia coal business gross margin: 50% Australia gross margin: 28% 8,145 7,918 5,356 6,498 4,614 3,361 Gross Margin (%) 47% 45% 50% 53% 50% 38% 51% % 28% % 30% 39% 57% 45% 52% 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 2Q10 1Q11 2Q11 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 Indominco Trubaindo Jorong Kitadin Centennial 43

44 EBITDA and NPAT EBITDA Net Profit after Tax Bt. million Bt. million +13% Q Q +12% Y Y 7,109 Power +15% Q-Q -30% Y-Y -66% Q Q -17% Y Y Coal - Australia -30% Q-Q Coal - China +417% Q-Q -90% Y-Y Coal - Indonesia * 3,161 Power +33% Q-Q -35% Y-Y +35% Q-Q +23% Y-Y Coal - Australia -47% Q-Q Coal - China -98% Q-Q -90% Y-Y Coal - Indonesia +47% Q-Q +20% Y-Y Power Coal Australia Coal China Coal Indonesia * Include Daning divestment 44

45 Balance sheet Net D/E (X) Debt structure Net gearing (%) 51% Fixed 11% 40% 42% 12% 26% 14% * Net gearing = ND / (ND+E) As at end of June

46 Five-year indicative discretionary capex plan ( ) Banpu and ITMG US$750M Centennial A$589M* NE Angus Place Newstan-Lochiel** * Estimated present value of 5-year capex. ** Newstan washery and associated infrastructure capex is included. Note: Capex estimates are illustrative only and are subject to revision. Capex estimates do not include maintenance capex (average A$10/tonne). 46

47 Appendices 47

48 Operating profit Units: Bt. million 2Q11 1Q11 2Q10 QoQ% YoY% Total sales revenues* Sales revenues Coal 23,587 22,716 13,655 4% 73% Sales revenues Power (BIC) 1,239 1,427 1,081-13% 15% Cost of sales (14,735) Gross profit* 10,152 10,110 6,786 0% 50% GPM 41% Note: * Including other business 24,888 24,178 14,840 3% 68% Gross profit - Coal 10,004 9,870 6,612 1% 51% Gross profit Power (BIC) % -18% GPM - Coal 42% GPM Power (BIC) 10% (14,069) 42% 43% 16% (8,054) 46% 48% 14% 48

49 Operating profit Units: Bt. million 2Q11 1Q11 2Q10 QoQ% YoY% Gross profit 10,152 10,110 6,786 0% 50% GPM 41% 42% 46% SG&A (2,769) (3,358) (1,622) Royalty (2,428) (2,305) (1,671) Income from associates ,298 Other income Other expenses - Operations (421) (254) (248) EBIT 5,614 4,855 5,806 16% -3% EBIT - Coal 5,063 4,378 4,961 16% 2% EBIT - Power %. -35% EBITDA 7,109 6,300 6,325 13% 12% EBITDA - Coal 6,452 5,730 5,389 13% 20% EBITDA - Power % -30% 49

50 Net profit Units: Bt. million 2Q11 1Q11 2Q10 QoQ% YoY% EBIT Interest expenses (770) Financial expenses (82) Income tax (core business) (1,216) Minorities (1,180) Net profit before extra items 2,365 Non-recurring items* (110) 8,058 (159) Income tax (non- core business) - (1,941) - Net profit before FX 2,255 8,144 3,776-72% -40% FX translations 906 Net profit 3,161 9,163 3,795-66% -17% EPS (Bt/share) Note: * Income from non-core assets and other non-operating expenses 5,614 4,855 5,806 16% -3% (700) (71) (1,247) (810) 2,027 1, (308) (44) (857) (661) 3, % -40% 50

51 Thermal Thermal coal market coal market analysis analysis 2Q Q 2010 update update ATLANTIC Increased demand due to Higher gas prices, nuclear concerns and low carbon credit price RUSSIA Rising production and Rail availability supports Limited export increase CHINA Import slowdown, LCV/off-spec coal EAST ASIA Japan coming back to normal; USA Korea and Taiwan strong recovery Thermal supply increase for export from Atlantic ports. Pacific deliveries continue REST OF ASIA Continued growth COLOMBIA Prices capped by tonnage returning to Atlantic INDONESIA 2Q saw commencement of Normal dry season increases SOUTH AFRICA Continuing problems in rail eases short term. Longer term issues re national policy appearing INDIA Recovery and growth Continue, but questions For post monsoon AUSTRALIA Flood impacts largely Overcome while rail and Some mine bottlenecks continue to be limits = Demand = Demand/Supply = Supply 51