Agenda. Global Coal Market Development

Transcription

1 Clean Coal Day in Japan 2010 International Symposium Agenda for Global Coal Market Development -What is needed for promotion of appropriate investment?- September 7, 2010 Tokyo Yoshihiko SAKANASHI Executive Vice President Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. (J-POWER)

2 Content -What is needed for promotion of appropriate investment?- 1. Recent trends in the global energy coal market 2. Agenda for market development 1

3 1. Recent trends in the global energy coal market 2

4 Rising volatility and More arbitrage 3

5 Global energy coal trades (2008 estimates) Global energy coal trades Total 680 (Mt) Pacific 360 Atlantic 230 Other 90 World energy coal production (2008) Total 5,000 (Mt) China 2,330 U.S.A. 950 India 460 South Africa 230 Indonesia 220 Australia 190 Russia 180 (World Coking coal production 850) From the U.S. US 13Mt. 66Mt. Russia 86Mt. 31Mt. From Colombia Europe 226Mt. 38Mt. 6Mt. 16Mt. 7Mt. S. Africa 61Mt. Poland 6Mt. 9Mt. Africa Middle East 20Mt. 10Mt. 4Mt. China 43Mt. East Asia SE Asia 234Mt. Indonesia 173Mt. 6Mt. 138Mt. Source: based on IEA Coal Information Mt. 29Mt. 44Mt. 9Mt. 27Mt. Australia 115Mt. Japan 128Mt. 67Mt. 3Mt. 1Mt. N. America 41Mt. 26Mt. 31Mt. Colombia 74Mt. S. America 14Mt. 13Mt. To Europe 4

6 Energy coal prices API2 Index globalcoal NEWC Index Reference price of Australian coal for Japanese power utilities US$/t API4 Index Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 n-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Source: globalcoal, Argus 5 Ja

7 Freight rates US$/Day US$/Day $250,000 $120,000 Cape (Atlantic Round-trip) $100,000 Panamax (Atlantic $200,000 Round-trip) $80,000 $150,000 $60,000 $100,000 $40,000 Panamax (Pacific Cape (Pacific Round-trip) Round-trip) $50,000 $20,000 $0 $0 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Source: TDS 6

8 The China factor Mt China's energy coal trade *1 100 Import export *1: Including anthracite and other coal, excluding coking coal (Jan. to Jun.) Source: China Customs Statistics 7

9 Uncertainty surrounding global energy coal market CO2 issue (Policies relating CO2 issue) Policies 8

10 Uncertainty of policies Political l instability in Japan Abe Cabinet (366) Fukuda Cabinet (365) CO2- Mt 1,400 Greenhouse gas emission reduction targeted by Japanese government 1, Aso Cabinet (358) 1,200-8% 1, Hatoyama Cabinet (266) 1,000-25% Kan Cabinet (?) ( ): days in office (Aso) (Hatoyama) 9

11 Factors impacting on the global energy coal market Global l energy coal market Rising volatility Uncertainty More arbitrage (CO2 issue, Policies) 10

12 2. Agenda for market development 11

13 Principles of approach to risk-taking/return-taking Two principles Commitment (eg) - Long-term contracts for purchasing coal - Participation in development of coal mines by consumers Liquidity (eg) - Expansion of physical and derivative trading based on indices, including globalcoal-newc and API 12

14 Commitment: J-POWER s example Development of coal mines with end-users participation investment in 4 coal mines in Australia Blair Athol mine(photo: Rio Tinto) Mine Blair Athol Ensham Clermont Narrabri Participation year by J-POWER Share of J-POWER (%) approx Partners (%) Rio Tinto(approx 71) Idemitsu Kosan(85) Rio Tinto(50.1) Whiteheaven(70) UniSuper(approx 15) LG International(5) Mitsubishi Development (31.4) Upper Horn Investments(7.5) JCD(approx 3) JCD(3.5) EDFT(7.5) Daewoo/KORES(7.5) Production/year (Mt) Maximum 12 8 Maximum 12 Maximum 6-7 Mining method Open cut Open cut Open cut Underground Port DBCT Gladstone DBCT Newcastle(NCIG) Note mined out in a few years start of production in 2010 start of production in

15 Liquidity Established reliable price indices API-2 ARA C7 C4 Richards Bay(South Africa) Newcastle API2: Energy coal index, CIF ARA (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp) API4: Energy coal index, FOB Richards Bay gc-newc: Energy coal index, FOB Newcastle C4: Freight index, cape-size, Richards Bay - Rotterdam C7: Freight index, cape-size, Bolivar - Rotterdam API-4 gc-newc 14

16 Counter-measures to uncertainty: CO2 issue Steady and attainable measures Replacement of old coal-fired units with Best Available Technology (BAT) ones Development of new technologies International dissemination of high-efficiency technologies 15

17 Example of J-POWER tackling the CO2 issue (1) Replacement of old plant Plant Installed Capacity Takehara Thermal Power Station (Takehara, Hiroshima) Unit-1, Unit-2 Unit-1: 250MW Unit-2: 350MW Takehara Thermal Power Station (Takehara, Hiroshima) New Unit-1 New Unit-1: 600MW Boiler type Sub critical USC (Ultra Super Critical) (CO2 emission intensity would be improved by approximately 15%.) Start of operation Unit-1: 1967 Unit-2: (planned) Japan has 80 coal-fired producing a total of approximately 38GW. These include about 40 inefficient, mid-sized units (7GW) which will approach operational lives of 40 years by the year Takehara Thermal Power Station Replacement of these units could reduce Japan s total CO2 emissions by 0.5% (approximately 6 CO2-Mt/y). 16

18 Example of J-POWER tackling the CO2 issue (2) Development of new technologies Chugoku Electric Power and J-POWER promote a large-scale demonstration project toward commercial use of oxygen-blown coal gasification technology. EAGLE pilot plant 150t of coal per day CO2 capture Large-scale demonstration project for power generation based on oxygen-blown coal gasification Scale: 1, t of coal per day (170 MWe) Site: Osaki Power Station, Chugoku Electric Power Co., Ltd. (Osaki Kamijima, Hiroshima Prefecture) Start of operation: FY2016 Demonstration: -- up-scaled EAGLE pilot plant with an IGCC power generation system -- CO2 capture technology J-POWER Wakamatsu Research Institute (Kita-Kyushu City) Osaki Power Station, Chugoku Electric Power (Hiroshima Prefecture) Use of the IGCC/CO2 capture plant Use for multipurpose use (synthetic fuels, hydrogen, etc.) 17

19 International dissemination of high-efficiency technologies (1) dissemination cycle Japan Further technology development for high-efficiency and clean use of coal Dissemination of technologies for high-efficiency and clean use of coal Government Multilateral/ Bilateral Support Agreement Government Transfer of credits, etc. Reasonable returns on investment and security of intellectual property to promote technology transfer. Technology transfer Globally promote the highlyefficient use of coal by transfer of Japanese advanced CCT Overseas Effective coal use and dco2 emission i control Pro-active application of the latest technologies 18

20 International dissemination of high-efficiency technologies (2) Example of a business scheme NEXI JBIC Export loans Investment loans Trade insurance Commercial bank Private consortium Government of Japan CO2 credit Investment Operation Bilateral Agreement (Entire Framework Agreement) High-efficiency power generation project Government of developing country Soft loans Preferential approvals Preferential power tariff Support to capacity building Manufacturers Electric utilities Technology transfer as total system Electric utilities Manufacturers Equipment, EPC Total management, O/M JICA Grant aid Support to technology transfer Training gprogram for human resource Special yen loans Related infrastructure Special yen loans 19

21 Uncertainty surrounding policies Policies Environment tax Resource tax Export Tax Import tax Export license Price system Other Intended effects Unintended effects Verification of objective effects Transparency and stability of planning and implementation of policies 20

22 Conclusions: for promotion of appropriate investment Volatility CO2 Policies Arbitrage Uncertainty Commitment Liquidity Replacement of old coalfired power units with Best Available Technology (BAT) ones Development of new technologies International dissemination of high-efficiency technologies Verification of objective effects Transparency and stability of planning and implementation of policies Promotion of appropriate investment 21

23 Thank you very much for your attention. 22