IMPROVEMENT OF EMISSION DATA USING SATELLITE DATA. an outlook and current status Denier van der Gon, H.A.C. (Hugo)

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1 IMPROVEMENT OF EMISSION DATA USING SATELLITE DATA an outlook and current status Denier van der Gon, H.A.C. (Hugo)

2 EMISSION INVENTORIES AND SATELLITE DATA or. Emission Inventory = individual source (sector based) ; annual total emission; pollutants correlated and proportional (same origin) Satellite = column, no split in sources; no complete coverage (clouds); single species BUT measurement-based and independent Satellite derived emission for European locations is (almost) never 1:1 comparable with a single source in the EI exception (very) large point sources Trends should be somehow comparable? Yes, but not straightforward (meteo variation, annual patterns ) Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

3 INITIATIVES (NOT COMPLETE AND EU BIAS) GHG developing a FUTURE CO2 emissions monitoring support capacity see the EC CO2 reports emissions-monitoring. H2020 CHE (CO2 Human emissions) H2020 VERIFY (starts Feb 2018) Air pollutants Globemission Global (less data rich regions); European scale results available Various independent projects (academics, PhDs, national programmes) Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

4 THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK! TROPOMI Why so excited? Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

5 Why so excited about Tropomi? Important : coverage (incl. absolute number of useful meas.),footprint size,sensitivity (Only few % cloud free observations) The figure illustrates the increase in cloud-free pixels over 1 month (September) Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon SRON NL, Ilse Aben, pers comm) CAMS71 Policy EEA

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7 EXAMPLE OF PROCESSED OMI OBSERVATION OF SOUTH- EUROPE SO2 EMISSIONS FOR First use of satellite data is checking location of major point sources ( but OMI threshold is high) and fuel e.g. changes from S-rich fuel oil to gas ETNA Source: Fioletov et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, , Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

8 MULTI-SOURCE SO2 EMISSION RETRIEVALS AND CONSISTENCY OF SATELLITE AND SURFACE MEASUREMENTS WITH REPORTED EMISSIONS The method is based on fitting satellite SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) to a set of functions of OMI pixel coordinates and wind speeds, where each function represents a statistical model of a plume from a single point source. Message: Substantial processing is needed to derive a useful product. Validated with US in-stack measurements of SO2 Source: Fioletov et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, , Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

9 OMI-BASED (BLUE BARS) AND REPORTED/ESTIMATED (BLACK LINES) SO2 EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. Source: Fioletov et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, , , E-PRTR reported emissions were used for all countries except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where TNO-MACC estimates were used. The error bars represent 2 standard errors of the annual mean calculated by averaging three seasonal (spring, summer, autumn) OMI-based emission estimates. Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

10 OMI-BASED (BLUE BARS) AND REPORTED/ESTIMATED (BLACK LINES) SO2 EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. Spain: Trend confirmed but the discrepancy is still 100 kt/yr Important but errors/uncertainties possible on both sides Romania: Emission reduction in the reporting started ~5 years before the satellite sees it.. Relevant to investigate and correct for improved emissions (and Tropomi threshold will be lower) but nobody s task E-PRTR reported emissions were used for all countries except Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where TNO-MACC estimates were used. The error bars represent 2 standard errors of the annual mean calculated by averaging three seasonal (spring, summer, autumn) OMI-based emission estimates. Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

11 NEEDS (APART FROM THE DATA & SCIENCE) Communication with country experts, EEA/EMEP/CEIP in a constructive manner to avoid a yes/no discussion Should be more than dumping data active involvement both sides Should acknowledge national sovereignty Acknowledge that retrievals, processing etc cannot be done nationally A service that provides estimates to national stakeholders? With a focus on hot spots and point sources? Improving emissions data - Hugo Denier van der Gon CAMS71 Policy EEA

12 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Take a look: TIME.TNO.NL