Estimates of future wildfire smoke and associated premature mortality. Jeff Pierce Colorado State University

Transcription

1 Estimates of future wildfire smoke and associated premature mortality Jeff Pierce Colorado State University

2 The team Maria Val Martin (University of Sheffield, formerly CSU) Bonne Ford (CSU) Sarah Zelasky, Emily Fischer (CSU) Colette Heald (MIT) Fang Li (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing) David Lawrence (NCAR) Susan Anenberg (Georgetown University) The primary funding for the projected was provided by the Joint Fire Science Program project #

3 Smoke affected large parts of the country in 2017 GOES-16 satellite visible image from September 4,

4 PM 2.5 : Fine particulate matter Dominate by smoke on many days in US west PM 2.5 in Wenatchee, WA GOES-16 satellite visible image from September 4, 2017 May June July August September October

5 Smokey days are bad for your health PM 2.5 in Wenatchee, WA WHO 24-hour PM 2.5 guideline GOES-16 satellite visible image from September 4, 2017 May June July August September October

6 Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 contributes to premature mortality PM 2.5 in Wenatchee, WA Relative chance of dying goes up with PM 2.5 Pinault et al., 2016 WHO 24-hour PM 2.5 guideline GOES-16 satellite visible image from September 4, 2017 May June July August September October

7 This research focuses on the long-term mortality risk of smoke. Katelyn O Dell will talk about short-term impacts next. PM 2.5 in Wenatchee, WA Relative chance of dying goes up with PM 2.5 Pinault et al., 2016 WHO 24-hour PM 2.5 guideline GOES-16 satellite visible image from September 4,

8 Recent increases in wildfires driven by changes in climate: temperature increases and earlier snowmelt r 2 = 0.48 p < Westerling, Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2016.

9 What might smoke be like in the future? What impact on mortality might it have? r 2 = 0.48 p < Westerling, Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, 2016.

10 Step 1: Predicting future fires Present/future fires from global land/fire model (Community Land Model) Present/future smoke from global atmospheric chemistry model (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry)

11 Global temperature [K] Step 1: Predicting future fires: Need information on climate Present/future fires from global land/fire model (Community Land Model) Present/future smoke from global atmospheric chemistry model (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry) Little GHG mitigation Moderate GHG mitigation

12 Global temperature [K] Step 1: Predicting future fires: Need information on climate and people Projected Population Changes Present/future fires from global land/fire model (Community Land Model) Present/future smoke from global atmospheric chemistry model (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry) Little GHG mitigation Moderate GHG mitigation

13 Global area burned [Mha/yr] Global temperature [K] Step 1: Predicting future fires: Need information on climate and people Projected Population Changes Present/future fires from global land/fire model (Community Land Model) Little GHG mitigation Moderate GHG mitigation Present/future smoke from global atmospheric chemistry model (Community Atmosphere 2000 Model with Chemistry) Little GHG mitigation Moderate GHG mitigation

14 Step 2: Future air quality Changes in both smoke and pollution Present/future fires from global land/fire model (Community Land Model) Present/future smoke from global atmospheric chemistry model (Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry)

15 Predicted PM 2.5 from fire smoke greatly increases Annual-mean PM 2.5 from wildfire smoke only

16 However, total PM 2.5 also includes decreases in anthropogenic pollution Annual-mean total PM 2.5 from all sources

17 The predicted fraction of deaths that are attributed to PM 2.5 stays approximately constant But the fraction from fires increases dramatically % of deaths in US attributable to PM Year

18 The predicted absolute number of deaths attributable to fire smoke triples by 2100 % of deaths in US attributable to PM 2.5 ~25,000 deaths/year ~75,000 deaths/year Year

19 Final remarks We predict US PM 2.5 to remain approximately constant in the next century but smoke increases will compensate pollution reduction. These estimates are single-model estimates of future smoke. Need independent estimates to see what findings are robust. Other recent predictions, need to compare. Physical-model fires: Vierra et al., JGR, 2016; Knorr et al., ACP, Statistical-model fires: Yue et al., AE, 2013; Yue et al., ACP, 2015 The health estimates were done with a PM 2.5 -mortality relationship built on other sources of PM 2.5. Have not yet examined the full range of published PM 2.5 -mortality relationships.

20 Extra slides

21 Test of CESM emissions vs. GFED4 emissions

22 Test of CAM-Chem PM 2.5 predictions in present day PM 2.5 evaluation in the US: PM 2.5 Speciation Annual PM 2.5 (present day)

23 Global Temperature Changes Representative Concentration Pathways Area Burned Population Changes + SSP3-fragmented world Or something like that.. It is a very sketchy draft slide. If you think you have time to include these plots and talk about RCP45 and RCP85 with SSP1 and SSP3, I can remove the climate only lines from the area burned plot

24 Predicted area burned increases in west, but burning region also moves east (little GHG mitigation)

25 Predicted area burned increases in west, but burning region also moves east RCP8.5/SSP3 Convert area burned to smoke emissions Simulate PM 2.5 concentrations

26 Predicted annual mortalities attributed to smoke PM 2.5 increases PM 2.5 -mortality relationship from Pinault et al. (2016) Annual deaths attributed to fire-smoke PM 2.5 per 50x50 km box

27 Absolute numbers Deaths/yr in US attributable to PM Year

28 Fire drivers