Gas NZ Industry Forum. 8 November 2017

Transcription

1 Gas NZ Industry Forum 8 November 2017

2 Disclosure & Disclaimers This presentation has been prepared and issued by Woodward Partners Securities Limited (Woodward Partners Securities). The information, analysis and views in this presentation are for class advice purposes only and do not constitute personalised advice (whether of an investment, legal, tax, accounting or other nature) to any person, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before making an investment decision on the basis of the information, analysis and views expressed in this presentation investors should consider whether the information, views and analysis are appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on public information obtained from sources believed to be accurate, reliable and complete as at the date of the publication. However, its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. Woodward Partners Securities does not, and can not, make any representations or warranty (expressed or implied) that the information is accurate, complete or current, and Woodward Partners Securities excludes and disclaims (to the full extent permitted by law) any liability or responsibility for any loss which may be incurred by any person as a result of that information, including any loss of profit or any other damage, direct or consequential. Woodward Partners Securities is a member of the Woodward Partners group (the Group). Investors should assume that other members of the Group, who are related parties of Woodward Partners Securities, including directors and employees, may buy or sell in ways not consistent with this presentation. Other members of the Group may also seek to do and may do business with the any company covered in this research presentation. This presentation is not intended for distribution to any person in any jurisdiction where doing so would constitute a breach of any relevant laws or regulations. Copyright Woodward Partners Securities Limited All rights reserved. 1

3 Outline 1. The big New Zealand energy picture as generational change 3. NZ gas sector status & outlook 4. NZ LPG sector status & outlook 2

4 Outline 1. The big New Zealand energy picture as generational change 3. NZ gas sector status & outlook 4. NZ LPG sector status & outlook 3

5 The New Zealand energy context Low underlying domestic demand growth now seemingly structural Growth 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Source: MBIE, RBNZ, Woodward Partners NZ GDP vs energy demand GDP CAGR +3.1% Energy demand CAGR +1.4% Decoupling of energy demand & GDP growth a firm trend that pre-dates GFC Energy intensity of NZ Inc has fallen >25% since 1990 Domestic market now defined by low underlying demand growth, with few material exceptions 4

6 The New Zealand energy context Low underlying domestic demand growth now seemingly structural NZ energy demand CAGR horizons Sector Primary +2.7% +1.5% +2.4% Industrial +1.8% +0.1% +2.3% Commercial +1.4% +2.0% +2.6% Transport +3.3% +1.2% +1.1% Residential +0.9% +0.3% +0.2% Total +2.2% +0.8% +1.6% GDP +3.1% +2.5% +2.6% Diff. +0.8% +1.8% +1.0% Source: MBIE, RBNZ, Woodward Partners Demand has seen substantial recent change as load growth has re-centred from mobile towards stationary energy. Agriculture and chemicals the largest contributors to underlying demand growth over the past decade. Growth in each however now appears increasingly constrained. 5

7 The New Zealand energy context Low underlying domestic demand growth now seemingly structural TWh/qtr Electricity system demand PJ Gas system demand Excluding petrochemicals 12 CAGR -0.5% Residential & CNG Industrial & commercial Electricity generation Source: EA, Woodward Partners Source: MBIE, Woodward Partners 6

8 The New Zealand energy context Low underlying domestic demand growth now seemingly structural mmbbl/qtr Liquid fuels demand kt Year CAGRs Automotive -7.3% 45kg cylinder +6.3% 9kg cylinder -0.1% Other/bulk +5.7% Total +4.5% LPG demand Diesel Petrol Bulk / other 9kg cylinder 45kg cylinder Automotive Source: MBIE, Woodward Partners Source: LPGA, Woodward Partners 7

9 Energy policy A new government with new priorities Labour + NZ First energy-relevant policy agreements Energy-relevant policy agreement The government s vehicle fleet, where practicable, to become emissions-free by 2025/26 Introduce a Zero Carbon Act and an independent Climate Commission, based on the recommendations of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Hold a full-scale review into retail power pricing Source: NZ Labour Party + NZ First Coalition Agreement, 24 October

10 Energy policy A new government with new priorities Labour + Greens energy-relevant policy agreements Energy-relevant policy agreement Adopt and make progress towards the goal of a Net Zero Emissions Economy by 2050, with a particular focus on policy development and initiatives in transport and urban form, energy and primary industries in accordance with milestones to be set by an independent Climate Commission and with a focus on establishing Just Transitions for exposed regions and industries. a. Introduce a Zero Carbon Act and establish an independent Climate Commission b. All new legislation will have a climate impact assessment analysis. c. A comprehensive set of environmental, social and economic sustainability indicators will be developed. d. A new cross-agency climate change board of public sector CEOs will be established. Request the Climate Commission to plan the transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2035 (which includes geothermal) in a normal hydrological year. Solar panels on schools will be investigated as part of this goal. Source: NZ Labour Party + NZ Green Party Confidence & Supply Agreement, 24 October

11 Energy policy A new government with new priorities Labour residual energy policy platform Policy objectives 1. Plan for the clean energy revolution and a just transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy 2. Promote energy efficiency, and ensure that at least 90% of New Zealand s electricity is generated from renewable sources by 2025, with close to 100% by Ensure all future purchases of Government vehicles are electric (including the Crown ministerial cars) unless there is an exceptional reason not to Actions $700/household winter energy payments to beneficiaries & superannuitants (a First 100-days priority) 10-year moratorium on build of new baseload thermal generation Add climate change mitigation and emissions reduction to the objectives of the Electricity Authority, in order to promote an increased uptake of renewable electricity Implementation of PCE 2014 recommendations including NPS on onshore oil & gas exploration Source: Labour Party 2017 policy manifesto 10

12 Outline 1. The big New Zealand energy picture as generational change 3. NZ gas sector status & outlook 4. NZ LPG sector status & outlook 11

13 2017 as generational change ~$1 bln of E&P deals inked to date in 2017 Upstream producing asset deal completions -12 months Announced / Completed Asset Stake Vendor Acquiror Value Status Nov-2016 Rimu/Kauri 100.0% Origin Westside Corporation ~NZ$10m Completed Jan-2017 Tui 57.5% AWE Tamarind Energy -NZ$9m 1 Completed Jan-2017 Tui 27.5% NZOG Tamarind Energy -NZ$5m 1 Completed Jan-2017 Tui 15.0% Pan Pacific Petroleum Tamarind Energy -NZ$5m 1 Completed Jan-2017 Kupe 15.0% NZOG Genesis Energy NZ$168m Completed 2Q 2017 Kapuni 50.0% Shell Todd Energy? Completed 2Q 2017 Kupe 4.0% Mitsui NZOG $35m Pending NZP&M/OIO approvals 4Q 2017 Kupe 50.0% Origin Beach Energy A$1.6bln 2 Pending NZP&M/OIO approvals 4Q 2017 Maari 16.0% Todd Horizon Oil US$18m Pending NZP&M/OIO approvals Notes: 1. Negative as after accounting for inventory, the structure of the deals under which Tamarind acquired the Tui interests of AWE, NZOG and PPP resulted in the vendors paying the equivalent of $20m to Tamarind. 2. Origin Energy s Kupe stake formed part of a broader asset portfolio held by Lattice Energy, sold by Origin to Beach in October Source: Woodward Partners

14 2017 as generational change With perhaps another ~$1 bln to come? Shell NZ Asset type Asset Stake Status Pohokura 48.0% Part of Shell NZ sale portfolio Production Maui 83.75% Part of Shell NZ sale portfolio Kapuni - 50% JV stake sold to Todd Energy 2Q 2017 Exploration PEP % Retention STOS 100.0% 50% stake previously held by Todd Energy acquired by Shell 2Q 2017 to support sale process Oil services EIL 100.0% Part of Shell NZ sale portfolio Paritutu tank farm 50.0% Part of Shell NZ sale portfolio Source: Woodward Partners

15 2017 as generational change Change doesn t come any bigger than this Oils+LPG+gas field production 2016 Mangahewa Onaero McKee Ngatoro Cheal Kowhai Turangi Kapuni Tui Maari Waihapa/Ngaere Kupe RKM Onshore 12.1 mmboe 26.1% Offshore- FPSO 6.2 mmboe 13.3% Copper Moki Sidewinder Offshore- Umbilical 28.1 mmboe 60.6% Maui Pohokura Controlling stakes in NZ s three largest fields will change hands before the end of 2017 Market s biggest gas seller looks certain to exit Street talk of other NZ E&P interests being marketed Farm-out activity also high, both Taranaki and frontier Total 46.3 mmboe Source: Woodward Partners

16 Outline 1. The big New Zealand energy picture as generational change 3. NZ gas sector status & outlook 4. NZ LPG sector status & outlook 15

17 NZ gas sector status & outlook Strong energy conversion end-bias CCGT, OCGT, Cogen, ST Electricity Methanol EXTERNAL BALANCES S=D S>D Conversion Petrochemicals Urea Ammonia S<D S<D Natural gas Nitrogen S<D Direct Use GTL Petrol Diesel Aviation S<D S<D S<D CNG n.a. LNG n.a. Reticulated S=D Source: Woodward Partners 16

18 NZ gas sector status & outlook Demand substitution of generation gas for methanol continues 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 NZ gas market demand-side time-lapse Methanex NZ production vs capacity PJ Mass market Other pchems I&C Mass market Mass market Other pchems Other pchems Mass market Other pchems I&C I&C Mass market Methanex Other pchems I&C I&C Methanex Methanex Methanex Methanex Generation Generation Generation Generation Generation kt Capacity Production WV refurbished Mot-2 restarted, WV idled Mot-1 restarted Mot-2 refurbished, WV restarted 25 Mot-1 refurbished PJ Source: Woodward Partners Source: Methanex, Woodward Partners 17

19 NZ gas sector status & outlook Demand substitution of generation gas for methanol continues Thermal vs geothermal generation dispatch Generation gas demand PJ GWh 120 1, Kawerau +100MW Nga Awa Purua +140MW Te Huka +23MW Ngatamiriki +82MW TOPP1 +25MW Te Mihi +166MW M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J Gas Geothermal Coal Electricity generation Cogeneration Source: EA, Woodward Partners Source: MBIE, Woodward Partners 18

20 NZ gas sector status & outlook Gas y/y 2P gross decline, but stable on net basis PJ 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, P gas+lpg R/P coverage Other Kupe McKee Turangi Pohokura Manga. Kapuni Maui 2P R/P (RHS) Source: MBIE, company disclosures, Woodward Partners Years Total gross remaining 2P gas+lpg reserves fell -1.7% to 2,079 PJ Net (post-production) 2P gas+lpg upgrade +8.5% R/P coverage falls to 10.4 years, the lowest since the Maui redetermination, but heavily leveraged to Methanex demand Gross 2P still >2,000 PJ 19

21 Outline 1. The big New Zealand energy picture as generational change 3. NZ gas sector status & outlook 4. NZ LPG sector status & outlook 20

22 NZ LPG sector status & outlook High-growth with still firm South Island bias kt NZ North/South LPG demand South Island accounts for <25% of NZ population but >50% of LPG market demand North 9kg North Auto Source: LPGA, Woodward Partners North North Forklift 45kg North Bulk North Total South 9kg South Auto South South Forklift 45kg South Bulk South Total 45kg and bulk the strongest growth segments with CAGR ranges of % across both Islands 9kg segment flat in both Islands Auto segment in terminal decline 21

23 NZ LPG sector status & outlook Kupe domgas supply-side dominance continues to grow LPG gross remaining 2P, Indigenous LPG reserves and supply 9 kt Years 3, dominated by Kupe, which accounts now for nearly 90% of total remaining 2, P domgas 2,000 1,500 1, Copper Moki RKM Waihapa/Ngaere Mangahewa Kupe Maui 2P R/P (RHS) Note: there are significant interpretation caveats that apply in reconciling 2P LPG reporting with production data due to treatments of entitlements by field owners to Pohokura and Kapuni LPG within raw gas streams Post-acquisitions, Genesis now strongly placed leading into 2020s when North Island supply/demand balance mapped (currently) to tip to net-import Source: MBIE, company disclosures, Woodward Partners 22

24 NZ LPG sector status & outlook Domgas supply attrition a central theme kt NZ LPG supply/demand forecasts Forecast Demand growth and decreasing domgas production (particularly from Maui), on a national basis, likely to see the NZ LPG market revert to net-short from as early as Kupe Maui MMP Kapuni RKM TAWN Cheal Source: MBIE, company disclosures, Woodward Partners North Island market mapped to move to net-import from early/mid 2020s Kupe likely to remain cornerstone of domgas LPG supply 23

25 NZ LPG sector status & outlook but with no shortage of supply-side domgas growth opportunities NZ LPG producing fields Clear upside potential beyond existing producing infrastructure: Pohokura: Straddle plant a likely post-sale buyer growth project Maui: Life extension projects also highly likely post-sale Kapuni: Now under new ownership. Has previously produced at >50 ktpa. Kupe: high-probability infill drilling to extend plateau Others: TAWN, RKM Source: MBIE, Woodward Partners 24

26 Bottom lines We live in interesting times Policy 1. Energy per se: incremental, not fundamental change 2. Climate change: much more substantive as formalising long-term direction & objectives Just Transition will form core of policy debate E&P 2017 likely to be looked back upon as a new beginning Gas major (and positive) supply-side change nearly complete LPG also major change, with likely more to come 25

27 John Kidd Director, Sector & Equity Research Woodward Partners Level 10, Legal House 101 Lambton Quay P.O. Box Wellington 6043 New Zealand DDI: +64 (0) Mob: +64 (0)