FY18 Q3 Performance Report

Transcription

1 FY18 Performance Report 17 April 218 G E N E S I S E N E R G Y L I M I T E D

2 FY18 Performance Summary Customer Wholesale Wholesale Kupe It was an improved performance from the Customer segment as increases in B2B and LPG sales were offset by residential electricity and gas volume declines, in part due to one of the warmest summers on record. The highlight of the quarter was the positive sentiment coming from Genesis customers, our net promoter score up 3 percentage points, and churn dropped 1.2 percentage points below the comparable quarter. Residential customer losses continued to decline over the period, these turned to gains in the month of March and B2B sales lifted by 21% over the quarter. B2B gas sales were up 31%. Netback fell to $8/MWh due to increased investment in marketing and business sales teams, increased C&I volumes, and lines cost timing impacts. LPG sales volumes rose 55%. Total generation volumes were up 16% with thermal generation up 4% and renewable down 9%. Renewable volumes and forced outage factors were affected by the outage at Tekapo B, and a generator failure at Tokaanu. Tekapo lake ended the period on 122% of average. National storage recovered through the quarter to end on 111% of average with average price received for generation up 7% to $89/MWh. Our thermal generation continued to support the volatile market conditions with 34GWh of swaptions called. The coal stockpile reduced 27% to end on 257kt. Gas production of 3.PJ was up 22%, as the field operated at 93.5% of maximum plant capacity to support generation requirements and swaption calls. LPG yield was 2.7% up, now stable above 4 tonnes per TJ of gas produced. Oil sales volumes fell 15% due to export shipment timing however Brent Crude spot prices rose 24% to USD67/bbl. Genesis is seeing a positive response from customers as a result of brand recognition and through innovation delivered, with churn below the comparable quarter and residential gains in March. James Magill, Executive General Manager Product Marketing FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 2

3 Customer Segment Performance Customer Churn 1.2ppts down on FY PJ Total gas sales volumes 16.3% Highs $266/MWh Volume weighted average Residential electricity price 2.2% 6% Genesis Brand Net Promoter score climbs 3 ppt 737 GWh B2B electricity sales 2.6% Power Shout 1 Launched to around 2, customers 1,33 GWh Total Electricity retail sales volumes 7.6% 1. Power Shout is an offering to customers to use 5 free hours of power at a time of their choosing 593 GWh Residential electricity sales volume Lows $8/MWh Netback down 5.4% FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 3 5.% CHANGE IN CUSTOMER NUMBERS (SIX MONTHS) 1, 5 (5) (1,) (1,5) (2,) (2,5) (3,) (3,5).3 PJ Residential gas sales volume 16.9% Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Customers > 1 Product LPG Only Customers Gas Only Customers Electricity Only Customers Total Customer Change

4 1-Jan 6-Jan 11-Jan 16-Jan 21-Jan 26-Jan 31-Jan 5-Feb 1-Feb 15-Feb 2-Feb 25-Feb 2-Mar 7-Mar 12-Mar 17-Mar 22-Mar 27-Mar Wholesale Segment Performance $89/MWh Average price received for generation 7.% 246 GWh Rankine output to support volatile market conditions Highs 1,632 GWh Total generation up in response to market 15.6% 33.5 GWh Swaptions called by other market participants 257 kilotonne Huntly coal stockpile inventory levels optimised 26.8.% Wholesale Price ($/MWh) $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $- 6.4% Forced Outage Factor (FOF) up due to Tekapo outage Lows 5.8 ppts DAILY AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICES & NATIONAL HYDRO Benmore (BEN221) Storage Long Run Average (RHS) 632 GWh Total renewable generation 9.% Otahuhu (OTA221) FY218 Storage Lake Storage (GWh) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: COMIT/Genesis Energy FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 4

5 Kupe Segment Performance 3. PJ Gas production supporting fuel flexibility 22.% Highs USD67/bbl Average Brent Crude spot oil price 24.1% Lows 96 kbbl Kupe oil Sales down due to shipment timings 14.7% INTEGRATED PHYSICAL ENERGY FLOWS 1 GNE 46% Kupe share 3 PJ Gas 11.9 kt LPG 132 kbbl Oil Fuels Portfolio 11.5 PJ Gas 1.8 PJ Coal 11.7 kt LPG GJ Diesel External Sales 96 kbbl Oil 2.6 kt LPG External Purchases 8.5 PJ Gas 2.4 kt LPG 2.3 PJ Coal 11.9kt LPG production up in line with gas and improved yield 25.3% 4.1t/TJ LPG yield 2.7% USD56/bbl Average USD strike price on oil contract settlements below Brent Crude spot price Electricity Generation 627 GWh Hydro 1,1 GWh Thermal Wholesale Market 3.4 PJ Gas 1,632 GWh Electricity 4.3 kt LPG Retail Customers 5 GWh Wind.1 PJ Coal 1.4 PJ Gas 1,33 GWh Electricity 6.7 kt LPG 1. LPG difference represents storage FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 5

6 Glossary CUSTOMER GENERATION WHOLESALE CORPORATE KUPE Brand Net Promoter Score Electricity Market Share Gas Market Share Customers Single Customer View ICP MVP Resi, SME, C&I Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - $/MWh Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price - $/MWh Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) LPG Customer Connections Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) Other Bulk and SME LPG Sales (tonnes) Wholesale LPG Sales (tonnes) Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) Retail Netback ($/MWh) Coal (GWh) Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) Rankines Fuelled by Coal (%) Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) Forced Outage Factor (FOF) Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate Headcount Oil Hedge Levels (%) Based on survey question "How likely would you be to recommend Genesis Energy/Energy Online to your friends or family?" Market share based on Electricity Authority data for the end of quarter Market share based on Gas Industry Company data for the end of quarter Electricity and gas customers are defined by single customer view, regardless of number of connections (ICP's) Represents unique customers which may have multiple ICP's Installation Connection Point Minimal Viable Product Residential, small and medium enterprises and commercial & industrial customers Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount Average selling price for customers including lines/transmission and distribution and after prompt payment discount Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives. Defined as number of customers Represents 45kg LPG bottle sales Represents bulk, 3rd party distributors and SME sales Represents wholelsale, export sales and transfers to Huntly power station Includes contracts for difference and options (excluding futures) Includes contracts for difference and options (excluding futures) Customer Segment EBITDAF plus electricity and gas purchase cost divided by total electricity and gas sales volumes Coal generation is calculated by applying coal burn to monthly average heat rates Excludes settlements from electricity derivatives. Results have been revised to reflect changes in coal kilo tonnes to PJ conversion rate and volume methodology The proportion of coal used in the Rankine units The percentage of time a power station is available to generate electricity The percentage of time a power station is unavailable to generate electricity due to unplanned failure or defect. Total cost of fuel burnt plus emissions on fuel burnt divided by total generation (thermal, hydro and wind) Rolling 12 month TRIFR per 2, hours worked for employees and contractors Based on full time equivalents, excluding contractors % hedged for remainder of FY as % of forecast sales FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 6

7 Customer Metrics CUSTOMER SEGMENT FY18 FY17 % Change Var. YTD FY18 YTD FY17 % Change Var. CUSTOMER Brand Net Promoter Score - Genesis Energy (%) 6% 3% (1.%) 3% Retail Netback ($/MWh) $8.26 $84.88 (5.4%) ($4.62) $8.64 $82.89 (2.7%) ($2.25) CUSTOMER NUMBERS 1 Electricity Only Customers 34,655 NA Gas Only Customers 17,896 NA LPG Only Customers 31,978 NA Customers > 1 Product 111,429 NA Total Customers 51,958 NA Electricity ICP's Excluding Vacants (#) 51,245 51,29 (1.8%) (8,964) Electricity Vacant ICP's - 2,452 (1.%) (2,452) Gas ICP's Excluding Vacants (#) 14,837 15,433 (.6%) (596) Gas Vacant ICP's - 4,133 (1.%) (4,133) VOLUMES AND PRICE Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - Resi ($/MWh) $ $ % $5.8 $ $ % $2.19 Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - SME ($/MWh) $ $ % $1.31 $ $ % $2.14 Volume Weighted Average Electricity Selling Price - C&I ($/MWh) $ $ % $2.6 $ $ % $2.87 Residential Electricity Sales (GWh) (5.%) (31) 2,237 2,365 (5.4%) (128) SME Electricity Sales (GWh) % (2.3%) (19) C&I Electricity Sales (GWh) % 121 1, % 338 Electricity Sales - Retail (GWh) 1,33 1, % 94 4,338 4, % 191 Electricity Sales - Wholesale (GWh) % 26 1,71 1, % 299 Electricity Purchases - Retail (GWh) 1,392 1, % 8 4,55 4,377 4.% 173 Electricity Purchases - Wholesale (GWh) % 194 1,281 1, % 252 Average Retail Electricity Purchase Price - LWAP ($/MWh) $88.7 $ % $36.6 $95.84 $ % $42.84 LWAP/GWAP Ratio (%) 99% 1% (.4%) % 12% 1% 2.% 2% Volume Weighted Average Gas Selling Price - Resi/SME ($/GJ) $37.87 $ % $1.42 $27.78 $ % $.29 Residential Gas Sales (PJ).3.4 (16.9%) (.1) (6.7%) (.1) SME Gas Sales (PJ) % %. C&I Gas Sales (PJ) % %. Retail Gas Sales (PJ) % (2.1%) (.1) LPG LPG Customer Connections (#) 6,225 18, % 41,891 Bottled LPG Sales (tonnes) 2, % 1,424 9,861 3, % 6,356 Other Bulk & SME LPG sales (tonnes) 4,393 3, % 98 15,143 -.% 15,143 Total LPG Sales Volumes (tonnes) 6,752 4, % 2,44 25,4 3, % 21,499 Wholesale LPG Sales (tonnes) 4,269 5,362 (2.4%) (1,93) 23,923 1, % 13,31 1. Mar 217 customer view not available. FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 7

8 Wholesale Metrics WHOLESALE SEGMENT FY18 FY17 % Change Var. YTD FY18 YTD FY17 % Change Var. GENERATION WHOLESALE Gas (GWh) % 139 2,652 2, % 52 Coal (GWh) N/A % 469 Total Thermal (GWh) 1, % 283 3,173 2, % 971 Hydro (GWh) (9.%) (62) 2,314 2,32.5% 11 Wind (GWh) 5 5 (6.7%) () (9.%) (2) Total Renewable (GWh) (9.%) (63) 2,329 2,319.4% 1 Total Generation (GWh) 1,632 1, % 22 5,52 4, % 981 Average Price Received for Generation - GWAP ($/MWh) $88.54 $ % $36.46 $93.9 $ % $4.94 Generation Emissions (ktco 2 ) % 235 1, % 735 Generation Carbon Intensity (tco 2 /GWh) % % 96 Forced Outage Factor (FOF) 6.4%.6% 966.7% 5.8% 3.3%.9% 266.7% 2.4% Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) 84.1% 9.4% (7.%) (6.3%) 9.3% 92.3% (2.2%) () Rankine Output (GWh) 246 (4) N/A % 678 Rankines Fueled by Coal (%) 59% % N/A 58.5% 61% 3% 15.7% 31% Gas Purchases (PJ) % % 2.7 Coal Purchases (PJ) 2.3. N/A % 4.2 Wholesale Gas Sales (PJ) % (13.1%) (1.5) Wholesale Coal Sales (PJ).1.2 (69.4%) (.1).3.6 (54.2%) (.3) Gas Used In Internal Generation (PJ) % % 4.4 Coal Used In Internal Generation (PJ) 1.7. N/A % 5.3 Weighted Average Fuel Cost ($/MWh) $42.89 $ % $11.28 $37.85 $ % $6.93 Coal Stockpile - closing balance (kilotonnes) (26.8%) (94.1) FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 8

9 Kupe and Other Metrics KUPE SEGMENT FY18 FY17 % Change Var. YTD FY18 YTD FY17 % Change Var. KUPE OTHER CORPORATE Gas Production (PJ) % % 2.8 Oil Production (kbbl) % % 89.7 Oil Sales (kbbl) (14.7%) (16.5) % 77.7 Average Brent Crude Spot Oil Price (USD/bbl) $66.76 $ % $12.98 $6.8 $ % $1.38 LPG Sales (kt) % % 13.1 LPG Production (kt) % % 13.3 Headcount (FTE) 1, % 237 Total Recordable Injury Frequency Rate % TRIFR now being reported to include contractors. Prior period has been restated on same basis FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 9

10 Q1 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18 Tonnes Tonnes Q1 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q1 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18 GWh GWh PJ PJ Appendix: Customer Segment ELECTRICITY SALES VOLUMES (GWh) RETAIL GAS SALES VOLUMES (PJ) Quarterly C&I Sales Volumes Quarterly SME Sales Volumes Quarterly Resi Sales Volumes Rolling 12month sales volume (RHS) Quarterly C&I Sales Volumes Quarterly SME Sales Volumes Quarterly Resi Sales Volumes Rolling 12month sales volume (RHS) LPG SALES VOLUMES (tonnes) Quarterly Retail LPG Sales Volumes 7, Quarterly Bulk/SME LPG Sales Volume 35, 6, Rolling 12month sales volume (RHS) 3, 5, 25, 4, 2, 3, 15, 2, 1, 1, 5, FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 1

11 Appendix: Wholesale Segment TEKAPO STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - FY218 GWh Tekapo Storage Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: COMIT WAIKAREMOANA STORAGE vs LONG RUN AVERAGE - FY218 GWh Waikaremoana Storage Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: COMIT NEW ZEALAND DAILY STORAGE 91 year Average 12month Rolling GWh 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: COMIT FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 11

12 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 GWh Equipment Availability Factor (EAF) % Forced Outage Factor (FOF) % Appendix: Wholesale Segment GENERATION BY POWER STATION 6, PLANT PERFORMANCE 5, Hau Nui Wind Farm Tekapo A and B power stations 1% 9% 8% 2% 18% 16% 4, Waikaremoana Power Scheme 7% 14% Tongariro Power Scheme 6% 12% 3, Huntly Unit 6 5% 4% 1% 8% 2, Huntly Unit 5 Huntly Units 1 to 4 Gas 3% 2% 6% 4% 1, Huntly Units 1 to 4 Coal 1% % 2% % YTD 218 YTD 217 Monthly EAF Monthly FOF FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 12

13 Q1 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 Q1 FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 Q1 FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 Q1 FY15 FY15 FY15 FY15 Q1 FY16 FY16 FY16 FY16 Q1 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY17 Q1 FY18 FY18 FY18 Q1 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 Q1 FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13 Q1 FY14 FY14 FY14 FY14 Q1 FY15 FY15 FY15 FY15 Q1 FY16 FY16 FY16 FY16 Q1 FY17 FY17 FY17 FY17 Q1 FY18 FY18 FY18 Appendix: Kupe Segment KUPE GAS VOLUMES (PJ) PJ Quarterly Sales Volume Rolling 12 Months Sales Volume (RHS) PJ KUPE OIL PRODCUTION VOLUMES (kbbl) Quarterly Production Volume Rolling 12 Months Sales Volume (RHS) s of barrels of barrels BRENT CRUDE OIL SPOT PRICE (USD/bbl) OIL PRICE and FOREX RISK MANAGEMENT $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 12 mths to Mar17 12 mths to Mar18 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar FORWARD RISK MANAGEMENT % HEDGED Oil Price Hedges Average Oil Price 1-12 months 9% USD months 75% USD months 35% USD56.2 USD/NZD Hedges Rate 1-12 months 61% months 57% months 34%.696 FY18 PERFORMANCE REPORT 13