Can we achieve 100% renewables? Flexibility options in the electricity system

Transcription

1 Can we achieve 1% renewables? Flexibility options in the electricity system Webinar Leonardo Energy 22/5/214 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou, K. Grave

2 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 2 ECOFYS 22/5/214

3 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 3 ECOFYS 22/5/214

4 The key physical components of flexibility: > Power systems are designed to ensure a spatial and temporal balancing of generation and consumption at all times. Demand System Supply Network System System: operational rules Demand: partly controllable Supply: controllable or intermittent (RES) Network: ability for spatial matching 4 ECOFYS 22/5/214

5 Definition of Power System Flexibility > Power system flexibility represents the extent to which a power system can adapt electricity generation and consumption as needed to maintain system stability in a cost-effective manner. > Flexibility is the ability of a power system to maintain continuous service in the face of rapid and large swings in supply or demand. > Measures of flexibility: Ramp rates, minimum up/down times, and start-up/shut-down times are commonly used indicators of flexibility, measured as MW available for ramping up and down over time > Role of power networks: Key enablers of flexibility, since they define the spatial dimension of balancing and thus to which extent flexibility resources can be shared between adjacent areas. 5 ECOFYS 22/5/214 Name

6 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 6 ECOFYS 22/5/214

7 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 7 ECOFYS 22/5/214

8 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 2% 8 ECOFYS 22/5/214

9 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 2% 4% 9 ECOFYS 22/5/214

10 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 2% 4% 6% 1 ECOFYS 22/5/214

11 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 2% 4% 6% 8% 11 ECOFYS 22/5/214

12 Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 System Net Demand (GW) Hours -2 No RES 8% 12 ECOFYS 22/5/214

13 Hourly ramping range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 25 System Net Demand Hourly Ramps (GW/h) Hours No RES 2% 4% 6% 8% 13 ECOFYS 22/5/214

14 Oversupply events already happen 1 8 Kernenergie Nuclear Braunkohle Lignite Kohle Coal Erdgas Natural Gas Öl Oil Andere Other Pumpspeicher storage Laufwasser Run of River Saisonspeicher Hydro storage Wind Solar Unbekannt unknown Oversupply event: High RES Low Demand CGs at their limit 14 Generation / Demand [GW] Demand Spot price [ /MWh] Wholesale price Export 2 Source: EEX, ENTSO-E, the example shows Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday -2 German ex-post data for one week in -2-4 February ECOFYS 22/5/214

15 Dynamic range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 8 PEAK LOAD 6 System Net Demand (GW) MIDLOAD Hours BASELOAD -4-6 No RES 2% 4% 6% 8% 15 ECOFYS 22/5/214

16 Need for flexibility > Traditional power systems: Need for flexibility because of demand variations and sudden loss of generation units variability of demand uncertainty of supply Flexibility provided by supply side (power plant fleet) > Introduction of variable RES: Increasing the need for flexibility: Increase in variability and uncertainty in the supply side Reduction of the flexibility potential: VRES displace part of the conventional generation capacity (impact on portfolios and operational) New flexibility options are needed 16 ECOFYS 22/5/214

17 Impacts of VRES on the flexibility timeline Long term planning flexibility Does my system have sufficient resources to manage operational variability? Operational planning flexibility: How many flexibility resources should be committed to ensure secure operation? Operational Flexibility: Which are the most economic resources? Source: H. Holttinen, A. Tuohy, M. Milligan, E. Lannoye, V. Silva, S. Muller, L. Soder, The flexibility workout: Managing variable resources and assessing the need for power system modification, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, November/December ECOFYS 22/5/214

18 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 18 ECOFYS 22/5/214

19 Categorisation of flexibility options Energy Storage Supply System Demand Network 19 ECOFYS 22/5/214

20 Overview of flexibility options 1. Flex Coal, 2. Gas 3. Oil, 4. Biogas, 5. CHP, 6. Nuclear 7. VRES 8. Pump storage, 9. (AA-)CAES 1. Flywheels 11. Batteries 12 Hydrogen (Power to Gas) 13. Demand Response - Energy intensive industries - Services - Smart applications 14. Electric vehicles 15. Heat pumps 16. Resistance heating Supply Energy Storage Demand Network System 17. Network expansion (Installation of lines) - Add transmission capacity (HVAC /HVDC) - Increase meshing, alleviate congestions 18. Power flow control ( smart devices) - Flow control devices PST, FACTS, HVDC 19. Market Rules 2. Market integration: - Expansion of markets - Expansion of control zones 2 ECOFYS 22/5/214

21 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 21 ECOFYS 22/5/214

22 Mapping of flexibility options Short term flexibility Mid term flexibility Long term flexibility SUPPLY Lignite Nuclear Coal CCGT OCGT ICE Large CHP Micro CHP Biogas VRES APC Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints Lower ST flex potential, unit commitment constraints Flex mode can be enhanced Flexible high variable costs Flexible high variable costs, emissions Constrained due to primary operation Constrained due to primary operation High variable costs, limited local supply Stochastic behaviour Perceptual and political concerns(waste of free energy) DEMAND Industrial DR Small scale DR Electric Vehicles Heat pumps Electric heating High potential flexibility constrained by primary industrial process High potential flexibility depends on user behaviour Constrained by transport sector/primary operation Constrained by heat sector/primary operation Constrained by heat sector, low efficiency STORAGE Pumped Hydro AA-CAES Flywheels Batteries Power to gas Low potential for extra expansion Low efficiency, restricted potential for expansion Very high investment costs Low efficiency option for seasonal storage Technology development needed for efficiency improvement Red options are small-scale distributed technologies communication & control infrasturcture key enabler Bold/Underscore options are mature technologies maturity of most demand and storage options is low 22 ECOFYS 22/5/214

23 Market barriers Costs [ /kw a ] Grundlasttechnologie Base load technology Mittellasttechnologie Middle load technology Spitzenlasttechnologie Peak load technology > VRES have low marginal costs Downward pressure to electricity prices, Reduced full-load hours for conventional units > Still, conventional peak power plants are needed to meet load in times of low VRES generation. 12 time [h] 876 % 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 2% 22% 24% 26% 28% 3% 32% 34% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 48% 5% 52% 54% 56% 58% 6% 61% 63% 65% 67% 69% 71% 73% 74% 76% 78% 8% 82% 84% 86% 87% 89% 91% 93% 95% 97% 99% > How to incentivize flexibility? Supply options are driven by market prices Flexibility options are driven by market price variability (spreads) 1 Demand [GW] 8 6 Peak load technology 4 2 Ohne % VRES EE 2% EE VRES 4% EE VRES Residual load curve shifts because of additional VRES Middle load technology Base load technology time [h] 876 % VRES 2% VRES 4% VRES 23 ECOFYS 22/5/214

24 Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 24 ECOFYS 22/5/214

25 The Flexibility Gap Flexibility Demand Flex Storage Flex Flexibility Gap Existing Supply Flex New Supply Flex Low VRES High 25 ECOFYS 22/5/214

26 Conclusions and recommendations > A flexibility gap is created by the shift towards high-vres systems > New flexibility options in demand and storage require control and communication infrastructure > VRES control is unavoidable for higher RES shares > Changing the market is needed for reducing the flexibility gap > Incentives and systems for demand management are needed > Extending the market size is a no regret solution 26 ECOFYS 22/5/214

27 Questions? > Dr. Georgios Papaefthymiou Ecofys Germany GmbH Am Karlsbad Berlin Germany E: I: 27 ECOFYS 22/5/214