MJA Energy Consulting and Modelling

Transcription

1 MJA Energy Consulting and Modelling Marsden Jacob Associates (MJA) provides economic, financial, strategic and public policy advice. Our strong reputation is based on consistent delivery of value to clients: pertinent market and strategic analysis and insightful assessments of the commercial and strategic implications of new developments. MJA s energy and carbon team has been significantly expanded with senior experts who have a long history of providing respected advice on electricity and gas markets and associated environmental schemes and policies. We have also invested in a step increase in our modelling capability: proven modelling expertise combined with leading edge commercial and proprietary tools and models of the Australian electricity and gas markets. Our energy and carbon capability now rivals our sector knowledge and analytic skills in our traditional areas such as water. Answers to Key Questions MJA can deliver advice and solutions to industry and government on questions such as: What are the economic and supply security implications of changes in base load capacity, such as the removal of 2,000 MW of high CO 2 emitting generation, or geothermal or nuclear entering the electricity system at specified locations? How is the economics of rooftop photovoltaic and solar hot water changing and what does this mean for main grid electricity demand? What are the key risks facing stakeholders across the energy supply chains and where are the rents and will they be eroded? How may the Australian electricity and gas markets evolve and what are the implications for investment? What are the issues associated with acquiring long term gas contracts in the various states and what are prices likely to be? What is the impact and cost of certain policy options? What is the optimal development path in order to meet defined carbon targets? What is the cost of policy and political constraints on achieving this? How is the real cost of existing and projected wind generation in the NEM? MJA Energy Team Andrew Campbell Andrew joined MJA in 2012 after many years with Intelligent Energy Systems (5 years as CEO). Andrew was highly involved in Australian electricity and gas reforms 1.

2 in both the east coast and Western Australia. Andrew s main areas of work have been in market studies for due diligence purposes, assessment of environmental policies, emerging transmission issues and regulation, and market rules issues. Andrew brings substantial experience and capability in the short to very long term modelling of electricity and gas markets where examples of work are the modelling of the NEM for AEMO, AEMC, and project developers, and the east coast gas market for AEMO, project developers and the Office of the Queensland gas Market Advisor. Andrew has also worked on energy matters overseas. Dr Daniel Magasanik Dr Magasanik recently joined MJA as a Senior Associate. Daniel was the foundation director of McLennan Magasanik Associates and was also a foundation director of the Energy Research and Development Corporation. Daniel brings vast experience and knowledge of Australian gas markets, progressing gas-fired generation projects, and gas contract negotiation. Daniel has carried out work on natural gas development and utilisation in Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Queensland, New South Wales and Tasmania. He also carried out the work overseas. Examples of work undertaken are the assessment of gas supply from PNG to Australia, gas pipeline due diligence, and the Queensland Gas Market Review. Antoine Nsair Antoine recently joined MJA as a Senior Associate. Antoine Nsair brings over 30 years of experience in both the Australian electricity and gas sectors. Prior to joining MJA Antoine was a partner and a director of McLennan Magasanik Associates (MMA) ( ) and an associate of Intelligent Energy Systems until Antoine held senior management positions in AGL (Solaris Power) and TRUenergy (Kinetik Energy) where he was the head of energy trading. Antoine was also closely involved in the development and implementation of the National Electricity Market and the Victorian Gas Market. Kay Gardiner Kay Gardiner recently joined MJA as a Senior Associate. Kay brings a depth of knowledge, and experience gained from over 20 years in energy and water industry related government policy, regulatory and governance roles and in retail gas procurement, supply and trading. Prior to joining MJA, Kay was the Queensland Gas Commissioner/Gas Market Advisor, providing independent advice to government on gas market issues and undertaking an annual review of the east coast Australian gas market. Kay has also held senior government roles implementing major government initiatives such as the Queensland Gas Scheme and managing significant regulatory programs and associated reviews and submissions. 2.

3 Dr Jeff Washusen Dr Washusen joined MJA as a principal consultant in 2003 and brought his substantial experience in energy industry reform and privatisation, energy market development and operation, utility regulation and a focus on industrial customer and broad consumer issues developed over 30 years of working in the energy sector. An example of work undertaken is the efficiency of public lighting. He has held executive management positions in the electricity industry and at the Office of the Regulator-General in Victoria. Kapil Kulkarni Kapil joined MJA in 2010, following a period in the UK in the management consulting and investment management industries, with a focus on renewable energy. He has advised a range of public and private sector clients on policy, strategy, regulation. Kapil bring expertise and experience in economic and financial modelling which he has applied for a variety of assignments associated with energy contract review, due diligence, government policy, and utility regulation. Peter McKenzie Peter recently joined MJA as an energy analyst and modeller. Prior to joining MJA Peter worked for Intelligent Energy Systems where he undertook modelling and analysis of market outcomes of the Australian National Electricity Market and the Western Australian Wholesale Electricity Market. Peter is an expert in the short to very long terms modelling of electricity markets and in the use of modelling tools such as PROPHET and NEO. Steve Wallace Stephen, who is also the Managing Director of SW Advisory, has a close working relationship with MJA. Prior to establishing SW Advisory Stephen was a Director and senior consultant with Intelligent Energy Systems. Stephen was heavily involved in the development of Australia s National Electricity Market (NEM), and since then on matters of market rules and technical analysis of the market. Stephen has also had a high level involvement in the analysis of renewable energy markets. Energy Market Models at MJA To provide the best advice our energy experts are supported by state of the art tools and models. We aim to ensure that our advice to clients is based on the most pertinent and sophisticated modelling capability available for Australian electricity and gas market. Electricity Market Simulation Model - PROPHET PROPHET is an advanced electricity market simulation model used by many parties in Australia (NEM and WA WEM) that include AEMO, TNSP s government, portfolio 3.

4 generators and retailers. Andrew Campbell of MJA had a significant input into the development of this model during his time at IES. PROPHET is capable of simulating the physical and market operations of the NEM and WA WEM in significant detail including the impacts of competition that reflect the competitive structure of the industry. Examples of its use are in projecting future wholesale energy prices, impact of environmental schemes such as carbon pricing and the RET, transmission congestion and economics, competitive impacts of industry consolidation, assessment of market rule changes. It has also been used to quantify the operational and economic impact of technology changes such as smart grid, high wind penetration, geothermal and nuclear power. Long Term Least Cost PROPHET Planning This model provides for the long term development of electricity markets in terms of generator entry and retirement, the locations of plant entry and exit, plant type and operating regimes. The flows on transmission lines and additional transmission requirements can also be established. Uses of this model have included quantifying the long term impact of pricing carbon and renewable energy targets, new interconnector economics, long term economics and impacts of new technologies such as nuclear power, benefits of introducing firm access on the transmission. East Coast Gas Market Model This model projects the development of gas reserves by basin and owner, gas pipeline flows and constraints, the availability of gas to the export and domestic markets, and the locational price of wholesale gas. It has been developed based on the expertise of professionals in the gas sector including gas well development and economics, market operation, LNG gas supply, and pipeline operation. The uses of this model include accessing the impact of policy on domestic gas supply availability, new gas pipeline requirements, large customer gas supply options and risks, gas prices. Wholesale Electricity Procurement Model The CloudSolve energy procurement model allows energy businesses to identify a least-cost energy dispatch and procurement strategy for wholesale energy and capacity in the presence of bilateral contract constraints. The model uses linear programming techniques to optimise energy procurement and capacity expansion by trading interval over a period from one month to ten years. The output has been used to inform procurement and pricing decisions by energy business and regulators. While based on linear programming techniques, CloudSolve employs decomposition algorithms and parallel (cluster) computing to significantly reduce the time taken to reach a solution. This development significantly improves the tractability of large- 4.

5 scale energy market problems, and therefore enables clients to examine a wide range of scenarios in a short timeframe. Retail Pricing Model ReElCost This model builds up retail energy prices based on the components to such prices retail market, distribution, transmission, energy, risk, and statuary obligations. This model has been used in a number of assignments MJA has carried out. Electricity and Gas Market data Analysis and Presentation - NEO Electricity and gas market operation result in vast amounts of data being produced and published by the respective market operators such as AEMO and the WAIMO. MJA have installed the product NEO that provides this data, from market start, to be displayed in meaningful ways. MJA have this data for the NEM, Western Australian WEM, Victorian gas market, national gas trades via the STTM, and the Singapore and Philippines electricity markets. This capability is used to monitor market outcomes and support modelling activities. March

6 Contact Us Melbourne Andrew Campbell Principal Level 3, 683 Burke Road Camberwell VIC 3124, acampbell@marsdenjacon.com.ay Perth Phil Pickering Senior Consultant Level 1, 220 St. Georges Tce Perth WA 6000, pshardlow@marsdenjacob.com.au Brisbane Craig Wilson Principal Level 14, 127 Creek Street Brisbane QLD 4000, craigwilson@marsdenjacob.com.au Website: 6.