Impact of climate change on production and nearsurface concentrations of sea salt aerosol

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1 Impact of climate change on production and nearsurface concentrations of sea salt aerosol J. Soares 1,M. Sofiev 1, J.Lagner 2 1 Finnish Meteorological Institute 2 Swedish Meteorological Institute

2 SILAM Climate applications ENSCLIM: ozone in present and future climate - Europe (Langner et al, ACP, 2012) nitrogen deposition in present and future climate (Europe) sea salt (globe, Europe) TRANSPHORM: Impact of transport emission changes on PM in Europe PEGASOS: Impact of climate and emission to PM concentrations Ragweed Changes in pollen number concentration due to climate change and resulting changes in vegetation maps

3 Structure of current study From NWP to GCM ECHAM A1B, global 2008 ECMWF global ECHAM A1B, global From past to present climate Evaluation (i)surf conc. (ii)wet dep. (iii)aod ECHAM A1B, global From present to future climate

4 SSA 2008 modelling Dispersion model: SILAM SSA emission parameterization (Sofiev et al, 2011) SST (ECMWF) and salinity (NOOA) dependent 5 bins (20 nm 30 m), internal grid: meteo, 15min time step Meteo : ECMWF Horizontal Resolution: 1x1 Time resolution: 3hrs Output Horizontal resolution: meteo grid 7 vertical non-homogeneous layers (25 m lowest layer thickness) Time-step: 1 hr

5 Sea salt emission module (Sofiev et al, 2011) Unified function for particle sizes from 20 nm to 10 m for reference water temperature 20 C & salinity 0.033: (F 20,33 ) classical parameterisation by Monahan et al (1986) laboratory simulations by Mårtesson et al (2002) Correction functions for temperature and salinity with particle size dependency: F emission = F 20,33 (F(Dp,T water )) (F(Dp,S water )) Spume mechanism for coarse particles (dp>10 m) by Clarke et al (2006) Number flux density df0/ddp (# µm -1 m -2 s -1 ) 1E+11 1E+10 1E+09 1E+08 1E+07 1E+06 1E+05 1E+04 1E+03 Monahan et al (1986) Monahan et al (1986) extrapolated Mårtesson et al C Mårtesson et al (2003) uncertainty SEAS, Clarke et al, 2006 This study: F(25 C,33 ) 1E D p (μm)

6 Evaluation: SILAM vs EMEP (2008) Good agreement between measured and observed values for costal sites: Na+ concentration and wet deposition Station Substance AvObs AvMdl Corr Bias RMSE no0015r na_cnc no0039r na_cnc no0042g na_cnc no0055r na_cnc no0056r na_cnc es0014r na_wd no0015r na_wd no0039r na_wd no0055r na_wd si0008r na_wd

7 Evaluation: SILAM vs MODIS (2008) AOD monthly averages: MODIS: min 50pixels per 1*1 grid-cell SILAM : time and spatially collocated with MODIS SSA load is similar for areas where SSA is dominating (40-60 N and S)

8 SSA climate modelling Dispersion model: SILAM SSA emission parameterization (Sofiev et al, 2011) SST (ECHAM) and salinity (NOOA) dependent 5 bins (20 nm 30 m), internal grid: meteo, 1hr time step Meteo : ECHAM IPCC A1B, , Horizontal Resolution: ~1.8x1.8 Time resolution: 6hrs Output Horizontal resolution: meteo grid 7 vertical non-homogeneous layers (25 m lowest layer thickness) Time-step: 3 hrs

9 Current weather vs climate runs results (June): Aerosol load distribution is similar utilising both NWP and GCM data Aerosol load is higher for GCM, particularly close to the equator

10 SSA production [2060:2040]- [1990:2010] March Mean vs Mean (difference) September General increase on SSA production Areas between 40-60N and 40-60S have higher variation: shift of windpattern

11 SSA concentration [2060:2040]- [1990:2010] March Mean vs Mean (difference) September Closer to equator the concentration difference between current and future climate periods are substantial increase of temperature

12 Summary Simulations for the present actual conditions, past-, and future- climate have been performed ( , ) goal: Difference between runs with NWP model and GCM are small: patterns of SSA emission are well reproduced by GCM with total production flux is ~1.5-2 times higher Climate change affects SSA patterns in several ways Wind speed is generally increasing, inhomogeneously in space and across the seasons Shifted stormy zone in southern oceans Rising sea surface temperature facilitates higher SSA production in equatorial region

13 Thank you! Acknowledgments: Petri Raisanen (FMI) Rostislav Kuznetsov FMI)

CAMS Emissions. Mark Parrington ECMWF. Atmosphere Monitoring

CAMS Emissions. Mark Parrington ECMWF. Atmosphere Monitoring CAMS Emissions Monitoring Mark Parrington ECMWF mark.parrington@ecmwf.int Overview Monitoring Emissions in CAMS Background to emissions in CAMS. Surface boundary conditions currently used in the operational