CAMS Emissions. Mark Parrington ECMWF. Atmosphere Monitoring

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1 CAMS Emissions Monitoring Mark Parrington ECMWF

2 Overview Monitoring Emissions in CAMS Background to emissions in CAMS. Surface boundary conditions currently used in the operational systems. Future provision of emissions in CAMS Review of requirements from the CAMS 81 Invitation To Tender.

3 Emissions in the CAMS global production system Monitoring

4 Emissions in the CAMS global production system Monitoring

5 CAMS 81 ITT Monitoring Reliable and accurate surface emissions of pollutants are essential to the successful operation of the CAMS global and regional production systems. The CAMS 81 ITT will provide: Gridded distributions of anthropogenic (global and Europe) and natural emissions (global only) in direct support of CAMS production chains Target resolutions of 10 to 50 km (global) and 5 to 10 km (Europe). Emissions of aerosol, NO x, NH 3, SO 2, DMS/OCS, NMVOCs, CO, CH 4, N 2 O, CO 2, certain halogen species and Radon-222. Emissions stratified into headline activity sectors (next slide). Period covered will be from 2000 to present for the global emissions, and from 2003 to as close as possible to present for the European regional emissions. Subsequent years will be added at the pace of 1 additional year every year.

6 Monitoring Headline activity sectors for emissions

7 Emissions currently used in CAMS Monitoring Current operational system Reactive gases Greenhouse gases Aerosols MACCity anthropogenic surface emissions. POET natural emissions from soils and oceans. MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions (simulated off-line, climatological meteorology). EDGAR version 4.2FT2010 anthropogenic surface fluxes. CTESSEL online calculation of biosphere fluxes (including bias correction). Online schemes for dust and sea-salt (driven by meteorology: wind speed, SST). MACCity anthropogenic emissions of SO 2, BC and OM. SOA emissions scaled to MACCity anthropogenic CO. Flemming et al., Geoscientific Model Development, 2015 Agusti-Panareda et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2014

8 Emissions currently used in CAMS Monitoring Current operational system and CAMS reanalysis Reactive gases Greenhouse gases Aerosols MACCity anthropogenic surface emissions. POET natural emissions from soils and oceans. MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions (simulated off-line, climatological meteorology). EDGAR version 4.2FT2010 anthropogenic surface fluxes. CTESSEL online calculation of biosphere fluxes (including bias correction). Online schemes for dust and sea-salt (driven by meteorology: wind speed, SST). MACCity anthropogenic emissions of SO 2, BC and OM. SOA emissions scaled to MACCity anthropogenic CO. ACCMIP 3-D emissions of NO from aviation. MEGAN2.1 biogenic emissions (simulated off-line, ERA- Interim meteorology). [CMIP anthropogenic surface emissions for pre-industrial and present day.] 3-D emissions of CO2 from aviation (scaled to ACCMIP NO).

9 CAMS 81 ITT Monitoring Provision of gridded distributions of anthropogenic (global and Europe) and natural emissions (global only) in direct support of CAMS production chains. Six workpackages: WP1: Anthropogenic emissions for the CAMS regional domain WP2: Anthropogenic emissions for the global domain WP3: Natural emissions for the global domain WP4: Consistency between regional and global emissions datasets WP5: Support to Production Systems WP6: Service evolution

10 WP1: Anthropogenic emissions for the CAMS regional domain Monitoring Species: aerosol (minimum PM2.5, PM10 and total), NO x, NH 3, SO 2, DMS, NMVOCs (total and split into main individual species), CO, CH 4 and CO 2. Stratified by SNAP categories. Road transport: exhaust (gasoline vehicles), exhaust (diesel vehicles), exhaust (LPG/ natural gas vehicles), gasoline evaporation and tire/brakes/road wear. Non-road transport: shipping and aviation. Fugitive emissions: reactive gases and methane from shale gas extraction as well as leaks. Horizontal resolution between 5-10 km as well as point source information (including height of emission).

11 WP2: Anthropogenic emissions for the global domain Monitoring Species: aerosol (segregated at least into Organic Matter and Black Carbon), NO x, NH 3, SO 2, DMS, NMVOCs, CO, CH 4 and CO 2. Stratified by SNAP categories as for the regional domain. Non-road transport: shipping and 3-D aviation. Fugitive emissions: reactive gases and methane from shale gas extraction as well as leaks. Horizontal resolution between km.

12 Monitoring Provided on same grid as global anthropogenic emissions Sources to be covered: WP3: Natural emissions for the global domain Vegetation biogenic emissions of NMVOCs consistent with meteorological conditions. Soil and non-frozen land surfaces - NO x, NH 3, OCS (carbonyl sulphide), N 2 O and Radon-222. Termites CH 4 emissions from digestion of cellulose. Oceans - main halogens as well as DMS/OCS and N 2 O. Volcanoes continual emissions/outgassing of SO 2, CO 2 and main halogens; ad hoc support for emissions from significant eruptions.

13 WP6: Service evolution Monitoring Research and development is required for investigating: Feasibility of adapting land-vegetation-carbon model for computing online emission fluxes of NMVOCs. Temporal patterns of emissions for global and regional scales to improve air quality forecasts with optimal timing of emissions. Feasibility of developing parametrisations for anthropogenic emissions using weather-related information.

14 Summary Monitoring Emissions are vital to the successful operation of the CAMS global and regional systems. Comprehensive emissions inventories for reactive gases, greenhouse gases and aerosols originally developed under MACC projects for individual product types. CAMS 81 contract will provide multiple years of consolidated and consistent emissions for the global and regional production systems. Surface boundary conditions for the global and regional forecasts/analyses. Stand-alone global emissions inventory.