21 st Century Climate Change Impacts on Marine Fisheries

Transcription

1 21 st Century Climate Change Impacts on Marine Fisheries Anne B. Hollowed, NOAA, NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA USA International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries, Rarotonga, Cook Islands 1

2 Key References 2010 Stock et al. Progress in oceanography 88(1-4): ICES Journal of Marine Science 68(6) 2

3 Century scale physical climate model projections Atmosphere Land Ocean Ice Objectives: Simulate and understand the causes of historical climate change (1860 present) Make global projections of climate change over the next century, including and estimate of uncertainty.

4 Climate models agree on many broad scale climate changes over the next century Precipitation change, A1B, Stippling in places where at least 80% of models agree on sign of change Meehl et al., Chapter 10, IPCC AR4 WG1 Report

5 Substantial biases may exist at regional scales. C. Stock (GFDL, American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting, Seattle, 2011) Bias corrections and focusing on changes in features provide ways forward, but it will take continued improvements to climate model dynamics to solve Two pronged approach, applied with caution!

6 Refined resolution AOGCMs (Stock, AFS 2011) Could fundamentally improve the resolution of shelf scale processes and basin shelf interactions in climate models Computational costs increase with the cube of horizontal grid refinement Processes that were once sub grid scale are now resolved: parameterizations must be reformulated May address some biases, but not all biases rooted in resolution. While more refined resolution simulations (~1/8 1/4 degree) will be available in IPCC AR5, most will have resolutions similar to those in IPCC AR4.

7 EBS Atmospheric circulation and radiation Regional Economic/ecological model Regional Higher trophic level model Regional NPZ-B- D Lower trophic level GOA CCS Sea Ice Ocean ecology and Biogeochemistry Ocean circulation Interactive CO 2 Plant ecology and land use Land physics and hydrology Regional Economic/ecological model Regional Higher trophic level model Regional NPZ-B- D Lower trophic level Regional Economic/ecological model Regional Higher trophic level model Regional NPZ-B- D Lower trophic level

8 Predicting Responses of Living Marine Resources Shifting zoogeographic distributions Phenology (match-mis mis-match) match) Changing vital rates (growth, mortality, maturity schedules) Adaptive flexibility (genetic diversity, flexibility in life history (spawning distribution, food habits)) Species interactions (predator-prey, prey, competition) 8

9 Phenology Example: Loss of Sea Ice in Arctic Wassmann (2011) Prog. Oceanogr. Apr May Jun Jul Aug Snow Sea ice Ice algae Phytoplankton Bloom Sep Apr May Jun Jul Aug Snow Sea ice Ice algae Phytoplankton Bloom Sep 9

10 Bottom Temperature Bottom Trawl Example of Current Environmental Tolerances: Eastern Bering Sea Forage Fish, Hollowed et al. In Review, DSR II Stratification BASIS Survey

11 Example of Current Environmental Tolerances: Eastern Bering Sea Forage Fish Hollowed et al. In Review, DSR II Cold years General Additive Model predicted spatial surfaces of fish density. Dotted line is 2 o C isotherm, solid lines are 50m and 100m isobaths. Warm years ( ) Age 0 pollock Age-1 pollock Capelin

12 Projection Modelling Approaches Statistical downscaling: IPCC scenarios downscaled to local regions and ecosystem indicators incorporated into stock projection models. Dynamical downscaling: IPCC scenarios downscaled to local regions and coupled to bio- physical models with higher trophic level feedbacks. Fully coupled bio-physical models that operate at time and space scales relevant to coastal domains. 12

13 Qualitative Vulnerability Assessment Daw et eal 2009 FAO Report 530 Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts adaptation and mitigation Exposure Sensitivity Potential impact Adaptive capacity 13

14 Elements of Stock Projection Models Fisheries Enhancement Downscaled IPCC model output Fisheries Oceanography Yield Forecast Fisheries Economics Fisheries Management Policies Demand for fish

15 Statistical Example: Climate Impacts on Productivity Age-structured model Link to recruitment Data TAC Year Climate data Management Strategy Years for defining the current regime Climate Decision rule Modified from A mar et al. 2009, IJMS 15

16 Statistical Example: Climate Impacts on Productivity Age-structured model Link to recruitment Data TAC Year Management Strategy Climate Decision rule Modified from A mar et al. 2009, IJMS 16

17 Climate variability GOA pollock spawning biomass A mar et al ICES J. Mar. Sci. ccsm31 gfdl201 gfdl211 miroch Year Year Year Year 17 Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) SB 40% SB 20% mirocm Year mirocm Year mirocm Year ukhadcm31 Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) Spawning biomass (million mt) Year

18 EBS pollock recruitment study Retrospective study to Identify mechanisms log(recruitment) Mueter et al. (ICES Journal of Marine Science 68(6) Summer SST

19 1. Select models that perform well in region (9 models) 2. Select scenarios: B1(low), A1B (intermediate) and A2 (high) CO 2 3. Create 82 SST scenarios 4. Apply SST to recruitment mechanism to create future production scenarios. EBS Walleye Pollock Spawning Biomass SSTs based on 82 climate-change scenarios Ianelli et al. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68(6) 19

20 Understanding ecosystem feedbacks and linkages NPZ NEMURO.FISH Spatial Gradient Tracking happiness Individual Based Models with Bioenergetics ECOSIM Food-web

21 Projecting Climate Impacts using Coupled Models Individual based Eggs & Larvae Passive Particles Batch Spawning Adult Energy Allocation Coupled Models (End to End) 1) Hydrodynamic & Ecosystem models prey field, water currents Hufnagl and Peck ICES Journal Marine Science 68(6) Dynamic Energy Budgets Post larval to adult Habitat Utilization 21

22 BSIERP Integrated modeling Economic/ecological model FEAST Higher trophic level model Observational Data Nested models 2 NPZ-B-D Lower trophic level ROMS Physical Oceanography BEST Climate scenarios 22

23 Statistical Stock Projection Model NEMURO- FISH Bioenergetic ECOSIM Food-web NPRB BEST- BSIERP #Species <~5-10 Multispecies or single species 1-10 Bottom up with dominant fish 100s Bottom up and top down with dominant fish and fisheries Ecosystem Feedbacks One Way One way (some two way) One way Two way Biological Realism Minimally realistic Moderately realistic Minimal w/ Ecosystem feedbacks Reasonably realistic Computational Requirements Capability to Perform Sensitivity Analyses to Track Sources of Error Treatment of Uncertainty Moderate High Moderate Very high High Moderate Moderate Low Excellent Moderate Moderate Minimal 23

24 Global Assessments: How much fish in the future? 2006 Capture fisheries stabilized at mmt. Aquaculture ~ 40 mmt and increasing 33 mmt used for oil and animal feed, rest consumed Population projected to increases to 9 billion (UN Human Population Prospectus) If fish stays 20% percent of dietary protein, 20% of 365 mmt ~ 75 mmt tonnes MORE fish Rice and Garcia (ICES Journal Marine Science 68(6) 24

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26 Coupled marine social ecological systems (Perry et al., 2010; In: Barange et al., Marine ecosystems and global change. OUP).

27 Development of Regional Shelf Seas Modelling GCOMS (Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System). Model components: POL-Coastal Ocean Modelling System ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model) 1/10 resolution Includes important shelf processes: Tides, upwelling, Benthic/pelagic recycling Geographically linked to LME : ocean governance scale Although global, the models are regional Barange et al

28 Symposium volume SICCME Synthesis & Comparative Research IPCC Earth System Modeling & Analysis 2012 Workshop Symposium Workshop SICCME Marine Ecosystem Modeling & Analysis IPCC Synthesis & Reporting Symposium volume UN Millennium Climate Report Human Dimensions Workshop Workshop Symposium SICCME Model Update & Revision IPCC Earth System Modeling & Analysis Regional Synthesis 2017 Symposium volume 2018 Symposium SICCME Synthesis & Comparative Research IPCC Synthesis & Reporting 2019 Training Simulation Tools and Models Ocean Monitoring Program SICCME Marine Ecosystem Modeling & Analysis Earth Ecosystems Northern Hemisphere Marine Ecosystems

29 Summary Models have inherent strengths and weaknesses Multiple model ensembles currently under development. Coupling NPZ into GCMs or ESMs holds great promise Coupling to fish and fisheries may be computationally too complex Developing future policy frameworks is needed and will require integration of stakeholders and policy makers. A global perspective is needed to project long-term trends in fisheries. Coordinated monitoring and assessment needed to support global models. Uncertainty must be communicated 29