European Offshore Wind Oceans of Opportunity. Christian Kjaer Chief executive European Wind Energy Association

Transcription

1 European Offshore Wind Oceans of Opportunity Christian Kjaer Chief executive European Wind Energy Association IWEA, Leading the Green Revolution Galway 1 October 2009

2 Global annual wind power capacity ( ) Global market for wind turbines in 2008: 35 billion

3 Wind development is similar to other power sources 18 years of global wind energy development ( ) compared to the first 18 years of nuclear development ( ) MW Annual Wind Annual Nuclear Total Wind Total Nuclear '61 '91 '62 '92 '63 '93 '64 '94 '65 '95 '66 '96 '67 '97 '68 '98 '69 '99 '70 '00 '71 '01 '72 '02 '73 '03 '74 '04 '75 '05 '76 '06 '77 '07 '78 '08 Source: EWEA IAEE

4 GW Global annual installations (GW) Nuclear power and wind energy Nuclear Wind Nuclear Wind Sources: European Wind Energy Association (EWEA); International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

5 New power capacity additions (EU-27, GW) Total installed: 200 GW GW , , ,4 0 Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% Coal 5% Photo- Voltaic 4% Fuel Oil 4% Nuclear 3% Hydro 2% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Biomass 2% Other 1% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

6 New power generating capacity in 2008 (EU, GW) Total installed: 23,851 MW MW , , , , Wind 36% Gas 29% Photovoltaic 18% Fuel Oil 10% Coal 3% Hydro 2% Biomass 1% Other 1% Nuclear 0,3% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

7 Cumulative wind energy installations Source: EWEA

8 Wind power in Europe % electricity from RES 8

9 Wind Power s Share of Electricity Demand Source: EWEA

10 How Much Renewable Electricity? How Much Wind Power? 20% Renewable Energy by 2020 requires: 34% electricity from RES 25% heating from RES 10% biofuels from RES Electricity 2005: 15% incl. 10% large hydro and 3% wind Excluding large hydro the share of renewable electricity must increase from 5% to app. 25%, in 15 years depending on power demand 1 EC baseline scenario EU demand (2020): TW/h

11 March 2009: EWEA increased its 2020 target from 180 GW to 230 GW (incl. 40 GW offshore) Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power 2000: 12.9 GW 2008: 66 GW 2020: 230 GW Two decades to install 0.9% of EU electricity demand Demand: 2,577 TWh Accelerating pace: reaching 4.2% end 2008 Demand: 3,380 TWh 14%-18% despite growing demand Demand: 4,107 TWh Source: EWEA

12 National Action Plans - timeframe June 09 Summer 09 December 09 June 10 Summer/ Autumn 10 December 10 December 11 Binding format for the National Action Plans made available by Commission Directive entered into force 20 days after publication in the Official Journal. New installations and increased capacity from refurbished installations may take advantage of joint projects aspects Member States send a forecast document to Commission indicating whether they will have a surplus or import needs to meet interim trajectory Member States send National Action Plan to Commission outlining appropriate measures Member States transpose the Directive s provisions into national law & communicate this to the Commission Commission evaluates the National Action Plans. Member States report on progress made in reaching established national objectives (every 2 years)

13 EWEA report September 09 Scenarios 100 GW planned projects 20-year grid plan Maps Supply chain

14 Offshore Global cumulative wind can power wind power Europe capacity seven times over (MW) Technical potential of offshore wind - 25,000 TWh by ,000 TWh by 2030 EU energy demand - 3,537 TWh by ,279 TWh by 2030 Source: European Environment Agency

15 Offshore current status End 2008: 1.5 GW offshore 8 EU countries

16 2008 Global and cumulative 2009: steady wind as power she goes capacity (MW) 2008: 366 MW annual installed offshore capacity 1,471 MW cumulative installed offshore capacity 2009: 420 MW annual installed offshore capacity 2,000 MW cumulative installed offshore capacity

17 Offshore Global cumulative wind energy wind market power in capacity the EU in (MW) Annual installations of 1,100 MW Cumulative installed capacity of 3,000 MW Electricity production of 11 TWh Meeting 0.3% of total EU electricity demand Avoiding 7 Mt of CO ² annually Annual investments in wind turbines of 2.5 billion

18 2011 Global cumulative 2020: steady wind growth power of offshore capacity market Offshore wind energy (MW) annual and cumulative installations (MW) 2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW 2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW 2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW Source: EWEA 2009

19 Offshore Global cumulative market growth wind to power follow capacity the onshore pattern Historical onshore growth compared to EWEA s offshore (MW) projection (MW) Onshore market growth: 32% Offshore market growth: 28% Source: EWEA 2009

20 100 Global GW cumulative and counting wind power capacity (MW) EWEA has identified proposals for over 100 GW of offshore wind projects in European waters: This would meet 10% of EU electricity demand This would avoid 200Mt of CO ² annually 100+ GW shows the significant level of developer interest EWEA prediction: 40 GW by GW by 2030

21 Country Global cumulative breakdownwind power capacity Ireland (MW) Online: 25.2 MW Current pipeline: 3,755 MW Total: 3,780.2 MW Source: EWEA 2009

22 Regional Global cumulative breakdownwind power capacity Atlantic, Irish Sea, (MW) North Sea and Skagerrak Online: 1,071.6 MW Under construction: 3,310 MW Current pipeline: >60,324.5 MW Total: > 64,706.1 MW + UK Round 3 (90,206.1) Source: EWEA 2009

23 EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan (MW) All necessary grid updates to transport all electricity produced by planned, proposed, under construction and operating offshore wind farms to European electricity consumers in an economically sound way Recommends building a transnational offshore grid infrastructure to connect: 40 GW by GW by 2030

24 EWEA s Global cumulative 20 year offshore wind power network capacity development plan (MW) Based on: - Existing TSO plans - TradeWind scenarios Added value of plan: - Provides step by step timetable for grid development - Suggested capacities - Integrated with development/concession zones

25 EWEA s 20 year offshore network development plan Global cumulative wind power capacity (MW) Source: EWEA 2009

26 Global EU: importing cumulative 54% wind of its power energy capacity and rising (MW) EU share of proven global reserves Years of domestic production Oil 0.5% - 0.8% years Gas 1.4% - 2% years Coal 3.5% 50 years Uranium 1.9% Source: European Commission, 2008

27 Remember to vote! RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE RUE D ARLON B-1040 BRUSSELS T: F: E: ewea@ewea.org